Summer is heating up, which can only mean one thing for you. No, it doesn’t involve going outside or going to the beach. It’s time to draft!
In this article, you will find the best targets and values to select on your Underdog best ball rosters.
A player listed as a Target is someone to draft at or slightly ahead of their average draft position on your teams. If you’re maxing out 150 Best Ball Mania IV drafts or if you only want to have 5-10 teams, these are players you will want at least 20%-22% exposure, and maybe much higher.
A player listed as a Value is someone to draft consistently to fill out key depth spots. These could also be players that don’t have enough upside to be a prime Target, but are still mispriced by average draft position (ADP). Think of these players as pieces that you will want at least 15% exposure (or higher).
Fantasy football is dominated by only a handful of players that matter every single year. If you have an edge, keep pressing it. Don’t take your foot off the gas. You will never win these massive, large-field tournaments by taking an even stance with 8% to 9% exposure of every player. Find your edge and exploit your league mates.
You could have absolutely nailed your draft last season and picked all of the “right” players for your team, but unless that squad had Ja’Marr Chase (50% of Chase teams advanced to Week 15 playoffs), Saquon Barkley (48%) and/or Derrick Henry (35%) – you were fighting an uphill battle.
Let’s try to identify the most valuable players for 2025.
Make sure you bookmark this page. I will update it all summer long.
Best Ball Targets (Predicting league-winning players)
Quarterbacks
Jayden Daniels (ADP 42)
We’re running it back with Daniels as our top QB target. Even at his elevated Round 4 price tag, Daniels presents asymmetric upside.
Daniels' 22.2 fantasy points per game as a rookie is the second-best mark all-time, trailing only Cam Newton (23.1 FPG in 2011). Recall that Daniels left Washington’s Week 7 game early with a ribs injury after 10 plays. If we remove that game, Daniels’ production across his 15 full contests was really worth 23.7 fantasy points per game. There have only been 28 instances in which a QB has averaged 23 or more FPG in a single season in NFL history.
Daniels rushed for 52.4 yards per game, which is the third-highest mark for a rookie QB all-time. It’s the 11th-most rush YPG by a QB in a single season. We all understand that dual-threat quarterbacks are cheat codes in fantasy football, but Daniels is just a rare breed. His legs, combined with his dead-eye accuracy as a passer, give Daniels an unbelievably high floor and ceiling.
Daniels threw his receivers a catchable pass on 78% of his attempts according to Fantasy Points Data, which was better than all of his veteran peers in a similar ADP range – Hurts (75%), Jackson (73%), and Allen (72%).
Rushing upside paired with passing efficiency is what we’re seeking with quarterbacks in fantasy football, but this offense provides Daniels with a third layer of additional upside beyond his talent. Washington’s play volume is elite. The Commanders averaged 68 plays/game (third-most) last season. This is Kliff Kingsbury’s way. Washington was the eighth-fastest offense in pace – seconds of play clock in between snaps. This marks the fifth-straight season in which OC Kingsbury’s attack has ranked inside of the top-12 in pace, dating back to his time in Arizona.
Brock Purdy (ADP 104)
Over the last two combined seasons, Purdy has finished as a top-12 weekly scorer among QBs in 61% of his starts (QB6). This trails only Lamar Jackson (78%), Jalen Hurts (77%), Jayden Daniels (75%), Josh Allen (72%), and Joe Burrow (62%). Purdy is among the best non-elite fantasy quarterbacks on the board, and you can draft him in Round 9. I’m giving Purdy a secondary boost as a QB to target because the 49ers' schedule is absolutely money. San Francisco has the easiest strength of schedule by opponents' projected win totals, and the third-easiest slate by adjusted FPG allowed. Hammer time.
Dak Prescott (ADP 114)
Over the last two combined seasons, Dak is QB8 by FPG (18.8) on Underdog, QB6 by yards per game (259.8), and QB9 in Pass TD% (5.5). The market has underpriced Prescott’s talent as QB14 in average draft position. I’ll happily take this discount on Dak after he finished as a top-12 fantasy QB in five straight seasons before badly injuring his hamstring last year.
Prescott has finished among the top-5 scoring weekly QBs in 29% of his starts since the beginning of 2023, and that’s the sixth-highest rate of spiked scoring weeks. For reference, Prescott is only a few ticks behind Joe Burrow (top-5 in 31% of starts).
Dak wasn’t as sharp as usual to start last year, but he still was one of the best quarterbacks against man coverage, ranking sixth-best by yards per pass attempt (8.1). In his last full season two years ago, Prescott shredded man-to-man coverage to the tune of 9.2 YPA (QB3). Adding George Pickens as a deep threat and a bully on contested catches only adds to Dak’s upside. I’m all the way back in.
