When planning out how to draft in a massive Underdog Fantasy best ball contest, we need to think of these tournament-style best ball leagues in the same way we would a DFS tournament (GPP). To even have a chance to win Underdog’s flagship Best Ball Mania VI, you have to advance as a top-2 scoring team in the regular season from Weeks 1-14. After that, you will then need to win two consecutive weekly tournaments – in Weeks 15 and 16 – just to make it to the finals.
With just a single entry, your odds of making Best Ball Mania VI finals are 0.0008%.
Because the field is massive and the number of roster combinations we can face is virtually limitless, we must set some hard and fast rules for building our teams.
This isn’t dissimilar from a card game. Blackjack is a game of optionality with repeatable rules for each hand. Some rules are obvious – “Stand on 20” and “Split Aces.” Blackjack is a conditional game with known downside if you repeatedly play the wrong way. Best ball isn’t too dissimilar.
In blackjack, if you hit one too many times, you bust and lose 100%.
In best ball, if you draft just two WRs in the first 10 rounds, you bust and lose 100%.
In this article, we will be discussing all of the key trends, roster construction strategy tips, and conditional drafting rules that you will need to profit on Underdog.
Best Ball Mania 6
For the last three years, BBM has remained just north of 670,000 entries.
If you make the Week 17 finals, your minimum payout ($3,750) is equal to the cost of max-entering the tournament ($25 entry times 150 entries = $3,750).
If you advance from your league in Weeks 1-14 as a top-2 scoring team, you will make your entry fee back ($25).
Underdog did add back in regular season prizes for the top scoring teams during the regular season:
Contest Selection
The advancement structure of BBM remains unchanged from last year.
Two out of 12 teams advance in Weeks 1-14 (regular season).
One out of 13 teams advance in the Week 15 quarter-finals.
One out of 16 teams advance in the Week 16 semi-finals to the championship round.
If you max out BBM, your “expected” teams in the finals is 0.12. This large-field contest is significantly harder to win than most $25 single-entry DFS tournaments on a given NFL slate.
This is why bankroll management and contest selection is so important. Know the odds before you enter.
For example, the $101 Dalmatian is a three-entry max tournament. It has a significantly smaller number of entrants than BBM – just 2,760.
The advancement structure in The Dalmatian is easier than BBM:
- Four out of 12 teams advance in Weeks 1-14 (regular season).
- One out of 5 teams advance in the Week 15 quarter-finals.
- One out of 6 teams advance in the Week 16 semi-finals to the championship round.
The $5 Puppy (with over 200,000 entrants) is a massive field tournament like BBM, but it also has an “easier” advance rate structure:
- Two out of 12 teams advance in Weeks 1-14 (regular season).
- One out of 10 teams advance in the Week 15 quarter-finals.
- One out of 10 teams advance in the Week 16 semi-finals to the championship round.
If you max out The Puppy with 150 entries, your “expected” teams in the finals is 0.25.
Underdog Scoring and Roster Requirements
ADP Trends
The markets have reverted back to normal. We noted that 2024 looked like an outlier and a perfect year for Hero RB builds, and it was to a high degree. You especially crushed if you took Saquon Barkley or Derrick Henry and then waited to take your RB2-3 until Round 7 or later.
The RB market is much more normal (2025 ADP = green line):
Here’s the same look at ADP for wide receivers:
The only real change that we’re seeing year over year at wide receiver is that the WR50-60 range is going a bit earlier than the previous three years. This is a pocket between 90-130 overall. I wouldn’t outright avoid these players, but it’s something to keep in mind because this ADP range is a key pocket for quarterbacks and tight ends. There are 23 QBs and TEs going between picks 85-135 overall, many of whom look like potential league-winning values.
There is basically no depth at quarterback this year. We have 28 starters, then a bunch of murky quarterback situations with Indianapolis, Cleveland, the New York Giants, and New Orleans. Scarcity is pushing the quarterbacks up in the QB15-QB30 positional ADP range:
It’s always best to keep in mind that quarterback ADP on Underdog is largely driven by stacks. This means that we should be a bit more aggressive than usual to fill out your quarterback depth so you don’t get caught out with a terrible group. This slightly tighter ADP environment at QB also means that you will have a lower chance at a potential value falling way past their typical cost. With everyone pushing up the quarterbacks slightly in this range – don’t get cute. Just take your guy within a reasonable ADP range and keep it moving.
Finally, here’s a look at the tight end environment:
The main thing that should jump out is that all of the tight ends between 60-130 overall are all significantly cheaper than in previous years. On average, the TE4-TE12 are drafted 15.9 overall slots later than average. This partially coincides with how quarterbacks are being pushed up around 120 overall, and I believe it makes for a more efficient market. Nailing the right quarterbacks and stacks is far more valuable than a single tight end.
The other reason why tight ends are going later than usual is because that pocket of receivers between WR50-60 in positional ADP is going earlier. This is where I draw the line. As you will read below, you will want to have plenty of receiver depth to fill the FLEX. However, having a solid TE1 at a discount price is more valuable than taking a WR5-6 that might only give you 2-3 spiked weeks.
David Njoku, Colston Loveland, and Dalton Kincaid are the three tight ends that stand out as particularly great values within this ADP range.
Filling the FLEX
Over the last two seasons, the average score for a replacement-level FLEX starter was 9.1 Half-PPR points. Of course, you will want much more upside than that on a weekly basis in your FLEX spot. This is just a look at how many fantasy points it takes to “fill” the FLEX with a replacement-level score (9 or more FP).
Wide receivers make up exactly 50% of all instances of at least 9 Half-PPR points, with running backs (35.7%) lagging behind. Wide receivers are more likely to give you a replacement-level “floor” score than running backs simply because there are more of them on the field.
Receiver scoring is a lot more talent-driven and binary than it is for runners. Wideouts are either earning targets and scoring FP on those looks or not. Running backs can get 15 touches (13 carries, 2 receptions) in a game and only churn out 55 scoreless yards from scrimmage (6.5 FP) because it takes more things that are out of their control for them to be successful, like run blocking and how often the offense gets into the red zone.
Finding replacement-level players is easy. On average, there are around 70 FLEX players (RB/WR/TE) who will score around 9 FP in a given week. But what about top scores? After all, we’re trying to win a tournament here.
On a weekly basis, a 60th percentile score from one of your RB, WR, or TE is worth around 16 FP. Here’s how the chart breaks down when looking at those scores:
Nearly the same scoring distribution exists when we take a look at high scores. To measure this, let’s take a final look at the 90th percentile scores – games of at least 24 FP.
The only real change we see from top to bottom scoring is that tight ends very rarely score enough FP to hit bigger 90th percentile scores in Half-PPR – only doing so in 8.8% of games. This is a strike against taking tight ends early in best ball drafts simply because they do not come close to keeping pace with WRs and RBs that fill up “floor” and “ceiling” game occurrences. When you take an elite tight end early, you’re forgoing a potential stud WR or RB1-2. Opportunity cost really matters in best ball.
Let’s take these concepts a step further.
Opportunity Cost Matters
Over the past two seasons, 53% of wide receiver scores in the 90th percentile (at least 24 fantasy points) on Underdog were produced by players drafted in Rounds 1 through 3. You’ve read that right. Just over half of all top weekly scores at the position will be from wide receivers taken in the first 36 picks.
