The goal here is to give you everything of note I have for a given week - in a 5-minute read. If I feel strongly about something good or bad, I’ll address it in the notes section.
Miami Dolphins (1-4) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (0-5)
Players I like more than usual: Myles Gaskin, Jaylen Waddle, Mike Gesicki, James Robinson, Trevor Lawrence, Dan Arnold
Players I’m neutral on: Marvin Jones
Players I like less than usual: Laviska Shenault
Longshot Plays: Tua Tagovailoa
Notes: Decent total of 47.5 expected, and it’s a good matchup for both QBs. Tua Tagovailoa won’t have DeVante Parker and Will Fuller, but the Jags allow the highest EPA/attempt, the second-highest completion percentage (72.5%), and the second-highest YPA to QBs. Hate to say it because he’s burned me, but Jaylen Waddle could be back this week with Tua, the Jags give up the 10th-most FPG out of the slot. Tyler Boyd posted 9/118 receiving in this matchup back in Week 4. I do feel better about Myles Gaskin after last week, and Miami is a 3-point underdog, a good sign for his game script. Mike Gesicki’s snap share has risen in four straight and he has 6+ targets and 40+ yards in those games. He’s got a shot, and the Jaguars have given up 3 TDs to TEs in the last two weeks. Also, I don’t trust Preston Williams just yet, and he’s been limited all week with a groin issue.
Trevor Lawrence’s fantasy production has risen in four consecutive games (8.8, 11.5, 17.8, 22.7), and he’s run for 20+ yards in each of those games with those two rushing TDs. The Dolphins have given up multiple passing TDs in four straight games, including five TDs to Tom Brady last week, and now they are down top corner Xavien Howard, so Lawrence should be able to put up 17-18 FP or more. I just don’t have a good vibe on Laviska Shenault, who ran only 14% of his routes from the slot last week. I don’t think he’s a good outside WR, so I’m out until proven otherwise. At least for Marvin Jones, Buc perimeter WRs Mike Evans and Antonio Brown combined for 13/237/4 receiving against the Dolphins last week. Few RBs have impressed me more this season than James Robinson, and Miami has given up 90+ scrimmage yards and a TD to individual RBs in four straight games and is giving up the fifth-most RB rush yards per game (123.4). Robinson should get it done again.
Los Angeles Chargers (4-1) at Baltimore Ravens (4-1)
Players I like more than usual: Mark Andews, Keenan Allen
Players I’m neutral on: Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler, Lamar Jackson, Marquise Brown
Players I like less than usual: Mike Williams
Longshot Plays: Jared Cook/Donald Parham, Latavius Murray/Tyson Williams
Notes: Not an easy matchup to wrap your head around for the Ravens, since the Chargers have been weak against the run but strong against the pass. There’s no way in hell I’d trust Latavius Murray, so he’s a desperation play only. The Chargers give up league-highs in YPC (5.5) and rushing yards per game (135.8) allowed to RBs, so Murray and Tyson Williams aren’t hopeless. Lamar Jackson is averaging a career-high 9.1 YPA and is the most aggressive QB in the league right now. He’ll be fine, but the Chargers are good at limiting big plays (Tyreek Hill held to 5/56 receiving in Week 3), and they’re giving up the third-fewest FPG (26.6) to WRs. Plus, Rashod Bateman will finally make his NFL debut this week. I’m passing on Marquise Brown outside of usual season-long lineups. This should be another Mark Andrews game. Mandrews has 5+ catches and 55+ yards in four straight and the Chargers just gave up 7/149/1 receiving to David Njoku, and they have surrendered 19.3 FPG to TEs this season (second-most) and 21.2 over the last four weeks (the most).
We don’t know how the Ravens will play the Chargers, and Mike Williams (knee) has been out of practice all week, as well. I don’t know what to think, but they are “hopeful” he can go. If so, the Ravens could put CB/S Jimmy Smith on him, or Marlon Humphrey, so I like Keean Allen and the TEs. Allen should see a lot of Tavon Young in the slot, and that’s a very beatable matchup. Allen may not go nuts because Humphrey could always kick inside, but we do like Allen this week. If desperate, I’d use Jared Cook, but Donald Parham ran a solid 17 routes last week. The Ravens do give up the third-most FPG (19.2) to TEs. The Ravens have given up 340+ passing yards and multiple TDs to three QBs this season (Carr, Mahomes, Wentz), so we’re not shying away from Justin Herbert this week. It’s not like the matchup is frightening for Austin Eckler, since we saw Jonathan Taylor gash the Ravens for 15/53/1 rushing and 3/116/1 receiving in Week 5.
Minnesota Vikings (2-3) at Carolina Panthers (3-2)
Players I like more than usual: DJ Moore, Adam Thielen, Chubba Hubbard
Players I’m neutral on: Kirk Cousins, Justin Jefferson, Sam Darnold
Players I like less than usual: Robby Anderson, Tyler Conklin
Longshot Plays:
Notes: We have a lame expected total of 45 in this game, which is not great. Dalvin Cook worked on Friday and is expected to go, as Mike Zimmer doesn’t care about their Week 7 bye because he needs a win. LB Shaq Thompson is out, which helps, but Carolina is giving up a league-low 12.7 FPG to RBs, but they are giving up 4.6 YPC to RBs the last four weeks. Alexander Mattison is running well, but Mattison averages just 4.9 FPG for the career when Dalvin is active. The Panthers have given up 161 passing yards a game and just a 6.1 YPA the last four weeks, so I can’t say I love Kirk Cousins (but I don’t hate him). But we do like Adam Thielen’s chances of a rebound based on coverage, and you’re not sitting Justin Jefferson. The Panthers are giving up the 13th-fewest FPG (10.9) to TEs this season, and Tyler Conkin had only three targets last week.
Sam Darnold’s dropoff in play last week is a concern, but DJ Moore got stuck with Darius Slay in coverage, and Slay is playing at an elite level this year. The Vikings don’t have a CB with Slay’s talent, and they trot out a guy in Bashaud Breeland, who stinks. The Vikings also give up the fifth-most FPG to outside WRs, but Robby Anderson is impossible to trust. He should see some of Breeland, so we can’t be surprised if he makes a big play, but it’s fantasy suicide to use him right now. At least for Chubba Hubbard, run-stuffing DT Michael Pierce is out. The Vikes are giving up 4.9 YPC to RBs the last four weeks, as well as nearly 6 catches per game.
Green Bay Packers (4-1) at Chicago Bears (3-2)
Players I like more than usual: None of note
Players I’m neutral on: Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams, Aaron Jones, Allen Robinson
Players I like less than usual: Robert Tonyan, Justin Fields
Longshot Plays: Randall Cobb, AJ Dillon, Darnell Mooney
Notes: Not loving the weak total of only 44 points expected in this one, and the Bears defense has been stingy. But Khalil Mack was out of practice all week, and Aaron Rodgers got the Bears for 8 TDs on just 53 attempts last year, and he typically hurts them. There’s a good chance the Bears stick top corner Jaylon Johnson on Davante Adams, who had good, not great games in this matchup last year (6/46/1 and 6/61/1), Adams does have 16+ FP in six of his last seven games against Chicago. Johnson is very good, and if he can contain Adams, Randall Cobb will be needed. The Bears give up the 11th most FPG out of the slot. Robert Tonyan has been dead this year with just 9/82 receiving on 17 targets on the year. This doesn’t look like a good week for a rebound, since the Bears limited Darren Waller to 4/45 receiving on eight targets last week. It’s a neutral matchup for Aaron Jones, but considering how inept the Bears offense has been, GB could be sitting on a lead and able to feed AJ Dillon late. Dillon’s role is rising no matter what and he’s a legit flex starter now.
Khalil Herbert will have to carry the load for the Bears, and he did look good last week and they do like him quite a bit. Herbert didn’t have a catch, but he did run 7 routes to Damien Williams 10, and RBs Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon combined for 21/92/1 rushing and 5/26/1 receiving against the Packers last week. He could flop, so I’d be careful, but he’s a great desperation play for RB-needy teams. If Allen Robinson (ankle) is active, which I’d think he will be after working Friday, with veteran Kevin King out, A-Rob should see a lot of 2021 first-rounder Eric Stokes, who has instantly emerged as their CB1 with stud Jaire Alexander out. That means Darnell Mooney would often have a great, great matchup against CB Isaac Yiadom. I have to assume that Justin Fields will have to actually, you know, throw the ball in this one, so Mooney’s a worthy flyer with big upside for those willing to stomach his obvious downside with Fields.
Cincinnati Bengals (3-2) at Detroit Lions (0-5)
Players I like more than usual: Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Joe Mixon
Players I’m neutral on: D’Andre Swift, TJ Hockenson, Jared Goff, Tyler Boyd
Players I like less than usual: Jamaal Williams
Longshot Plays: Amon-Ra St. Brown
Notes: Joe Burrow let me down a little last week, but he still has multiple touchdowns in each of his first five games, and while the Lions have actually allowed just one passer to reach multiple TD passes this year, their secondary is brutally bad and extremely vulnerable to big plays. That’s evident in their league-high 10.04 YPA allowed so far. Ja’Marr Chase could crush them, and Tee Higgins could easily do well off after shaking the rust off last week. The Lions have been above-average covering the slot, but it’s not like Tyler Boyd is hopeless. Assuming Samaje Perine is out, I do like Joe Mixon’s chances, and a full workload for him is expected, barring a setback. The Lions defense has given up 100+ rushing yards and 22+ FP to David Montgomery and Alexander Mattison in consecutive games. Both backs looked like Hall of Famers against this Lions defense the last two weeks.
It’s not the best matchup, but you have to keep rolling with D’Andre Swift, whose snap shares are up the last two weeks (73% and 74%), and he’s put up 100+ scrimmage yards and 22+ FP in those games. Jamaal Williams (dealing with a hip issue) has only 2/8 receiving and 0 TDs the last two weeks, so he’s a shaky option right now. TJ Hockenson has still run routes on 85% of Jared Goff’s dropbacks the last three weeks, and he did practice early in the week albeit in a limited fashion. The Bengals haven’t really been tested by the TE, but I’d give Hock a decent chance to bounce back here. The only other Lions receiver you can consider is rookie Amon-Ra St. Brown, who is taking over. The Bengals do have a good slot corner in Mike Hilton, but they also give up the 12th-most FPG out of the slot. He’s also one of Goff's best targets already, and they should be playing from behind. St. Brown has 6+ catches in consecutive games, and he’s seen 16 combined targets for 13/135 receiving in that span, plue he ran the most routes for the first time last week. 8-10 targets are likely coming his way.
Houston Texans (1-4) at Indianapolis Colts (1-4)
Players I like more than usual: Jonathan Taylor, Brandin Cooks, Michael Pittman
Players I’m neutral on: Davis Mills
Players I like less than usual: Nyheim Hines, TY Hilton, Zach Pascal, Parris Campbell.
Longshot Plays: Carson Wentz, Mo Alie-Cox, David Johnson
Notes: I don’t know what got into Davis Mills last week, but I don’t want to find out with him in my lineup this week. But it is a good matchup, even if the two starting Colts CBs play, which they are expected to. I’m still on Brandin Cooks this week after he was underwhelming last week against the Patriots, who focused on Cooks. Cook had just a 7% share of the passing yards, but the week before he had a whopping 54% of the passing yards. Indy held him to a modest 11/124 on 15 targets in two games last year, but the Colts CBs are extremely beatable. Marquise Brown, for example, exploded for 9/125/2 receiving in this matchup last week. David Johnson is their hurry-up back and he has led the Texans’ backfield in touches with more than a 50% snap share the last two weeks, and he’s actually being used. The Texans are 10-point road underdogs, which should help Johnson’s usage, which has been good lately.
Jonathan Taylor should be a slam dunk with this choice matchup, so hopefully dum-dum HC Frank Reich gets him 18+ touches. The Texans have been solid against opposing backs, but they’re still giving up 4.7 YPC and the seventh-most rushing yards per game (112.4) to RBs. Taylor also put up 41 FP in two games against them last year and a fat 6.0 YPC clip. You’d think, as 10-point home favorites, it’s a bad spot for Nyheim Hines, but who knows with these guys. Carson Wentz’ tape last week was the best tape he’s put out in over a year, and they are pretty loaded with viable targets, including Texan killer TY Hilton. The Texans are scrappy, but they’re not very talented, and they have given up 21+ FP to three QBs already this season. Wentz is a good reach play and Michael Pittman remains a strong WR3. I would not use Hilton just yet, and his precent hurts their other WRs Zach Pascal and Parris Campbell. I do like Mo Alie-Cox, but he’s hit-or-miss on this team, since they spread the ball around. But when he hits, he can hit big like he did two weeks ago with 2 TDs. Jack Doyle actually ran more routes last week (15 to 13), which is worrisome, but MAC did catch all three of his targets for 50 yards, and the matchup is ideal for a TE. The Texans are giving up the most FPG (20.4) to the position this season, and Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith combined for 8/102/1 receiving last week.
Los Angeles Rams (4-1) at New York Giants (1-4)
Players I like more than usual: Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, Kadarius Toney
Players I’m neutral on: Darrell Henderson, Sony Michel, Tyler Higbee, Devontae Booker
Players I like less than usual: Sterling Shepard, Darius Slayton, Daniel Jones (concussion)
Longshot Plays:
Notes: The Giants defense has struggled, giving up 20+ FP to quarterbacks in 4-of-5 games this season, so you have to feel pretty good about Matthew Stafford. Robert Woods obviously ate last week, and the Giants are giving up the most FPG to outside WRs through five games. Cooper Kupp’s out wide only 30% of the time, but he has double-digit targets, 5+ catches, and 60+ yards in every game. CeeDee Lamb got 4/84/1 in this matchup last week. Tyler Higbee was that sad TE who scored last week - and still crapped the bed for fantasy. It makes me feel a little better knowing Dalton Schultz got 6/79 in this matchup last week, and the Giants are giving up the seventh-most FPG (16.5) to TEs. I thought the bell cow talk for Darrell Henderson was off base all along, and he saw a season-low 66% snap share last week, which is what they’d like with Sony Michel. It’s not the end of the world for either, especially Henderson. The Giants are giving up the third-most rushing yards per game (123.0) and a healthy 5.8/47.0 receiving per game to RBs.
The Giants are a bit of a mess still, but thankfully superstar LT Andrew Thomas was limited late in the week, so I’d think he’ll go, as well as Kadarius Toney. No Kenny Golladay helps, but Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton are back. Toney is a confusing play with his ankle injury, and with Jalen Ramsey available to kick inside if Toney is balling again. But I’m starting Toney until he proves me wrong for doing it already. Toney will likely get slot coverage from CB David Long, who has really struggled. Our Wes Huber thinks Shepard will see more of Ramsey, but it’s a tough call, as is Daniel Jones coming off the conclusion. The Rams are giving up 294.2 passing yards per game (9th-most) but just 1.2 passing TDs per game (5th-fewest). Just because he’s set for volume, I don’t think it means Devontae Booker is a lock to come through. Use him if you need him, since he’s a good bet for 15+ opportunities, but he’s a below-average player.
Kansas City Chiefs (2-3) at Washington Football Team (2-3)
Players I like more than usual: Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, Darrel Williams, Taylor Heinicke
Players I’m neutral on: Travis Kelce, Terry McLaurin, Antonio Gibson
Players I like less than usual: None
Longshot Plays: Ricky Seals-Jones, JD McKissic, Mecole Hardman, Adam Humphries
Notes: We have a nice 54.5 expected total and Patrick Mahomes projected to crush TFT much like we had him crushing the Eagles defense heading into Week 4 (5 TD passes). The Football Team is giving up the second-most points per game (31.0) and the sixth-most yards per game (407.8). The way they play defense is the exact opposite of how teams slow the KC passing game down with split safeties, which reduces their ability to prevent big plays. So we expect Mahomes and Tyreek Hill to go ballistic. Mecole Hardman isn’t reliable just yet (especially with Josh Gordon lurking), but he posted season-bests in targets (12), catches (9), and receiving yards (76) against the Bills last week and does also have a chance to produce with this matchup. You’re using Travis Kelce, but he’s cooling off, got banged around last week, and Washington is giving just 5.2/55.8/.2 receiving to TEs through five weeks. Darrel Williams last week played 43% of the snaps while Jerrick McKinnon had just a single carry and two catches on 2 targets with 31% of the snaps. TFT is giving up just 3.7 YPC and 4.0 catches per game to RBs this season, but they have insanely given up six receiving TDs to RBs in the last three weeks. KC should move the ball and score a bunch of TDs, so two scores are in play for Williams if he receives any luck.
He’s riskier due to all their receiver injuries, but Terry McLaurin is at least expected to go, and Taylor Heinicke should have to throw (and run) a ton. I did not like him last week, and he flopped, but he also threw for 2+ TD passes with 21+ FP in his previous three starts. KC is allowing the most points per game (32.6) and the second-most yards per game (437.4) and they won’t have starting CB Charvarius Ward, which helps. You have to use McLaurin if he goes, since he should see a lot of CB Mike Hughes, who has yet to be good in the NFL. Ricky Seals-Jones looks like a great streamer this week. RSJ was Logan Thomas last week, playing on 99% of the snaps with a solid 5/41 on eight targets (20% share) with a couple of end-zone targets. Another athletic TE in Dawson Knox ripped the Chiefs for 3/117/1 receiving last week after Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert combined for 11/116/1 receiving against them in Week 4. I do also like Adam Humphries, who should be busy with 2-3 of their top 3-4 WRs are out, and TFT should have to throw all day playing from behind. KC’s giving up the 12th-most FPG out of the slot. Hate to say it, but with KC being 7-point road favorites, this could be a JD McKissic game with them in the hurry-up game. But it’s still a good matchup for Antonio Gibson, and DT Chris Jones is out helps. The Chiefs have been ripped for 4.7 YPC and one rushing touchdown per game by RBs this season.
Arizona Cardinals (5-0) at Cleveland Browns (3-2)
Players I like more than usual: Kareem Hunt
Players I’m neutral on: Kyler Murray, Baker Mayfield, DeAndre Hopkins
Players I like less than usual: Chase Edmunds, Odell Beckham, David Njoku
Longshot Plays: Rondalle Moore, Christian Kirk, Rashard Higgins
Notes: This is a tough matchup to break down, but we can start with the obvious. Kareem Hunt is in all lineups with Nick Chubb ruled out, even though Hunt actually averages more FPG in games in which Chubb is active than when he is not. But we’re looking at 20+ touches. LT Jedrick Wills and RT Jack Conklin missed practice all week, so check their statuses if you’re on the fence about a Browns player. Hopefully, that’s not Odell Beckham, who played a season-high 82% of the snaps and ran a team-high 31 routes on Baker’s Mayfield 33 dropbacks - and he caught 2 balls for 20 on 3 targets. Sad. He can’t be used. Our guy Wes likes Baker against a cover 1 heavy secondary, so my best guess for the Browns is Rashard Higgins makes a play and/or scores. You can’t trust the Browns TEs, and David Njoku has a knee problem this week. The Cardinals are giving up the second-fewest FPG (5.6) to TEs this season.
The Cardinals are a tough team to handicap right now due to HC Kliff Kingsbury being out with Covid, and also some injuries and a tougher matchup. It looks like the Browns will have CBs Denzel Ward (neck), Greedy Williams (shoulder/knee), Greg Newsome (calf), but Kyler Murray will not have a critical piece on his OL in C Rodney Hudson. Perhaps he runs more (his fantasy owners need it) without Hudson, and the Browns have problems with running QBs Weeks 1-2. The Browns got ripped in the secondary last week, but they will be healthier this week. Still, their key receivers DeAndre Hopkins and Rondalle Moore aren’t guys to shy away from. Moore edged out Christian Kirk in routes (20 to 18) for the first time last week, and Kirk managed just 5/39 receiving, but the Browns are giving up the ninth-most FGP out of the slot, which is a positive angle for Kirk. Even though Austin Ekeler got the Browns for 22/119/3 scrimmage last week, Chase Edmunds is tough to trust after a bad game last week, and he’s been limited all week again with his shoulder. The Browns are giving up 3.2 YPC and they’ve given up just two rushing TDs to RBs this season, so use James Conner only if you need him.
Vegas Raiders (3-2) at Denver Broncos (3-2)
Players I like more than usual: Darren Waller, Javonte Williams, Noah Fant
Players I’m neutral on: Josh Jacobs, Teddy Bridgewater
Players I like less than usual: Derek Carr, Hunter Renfrow, Henry Ruggs, Bryan Edwards, Melvin Gordon
Longshot Plays: Tim Patrick
Notes: The Raiders’ offense should be in good hands with veteran OC Greg Olson, but it’s tough to predict if their devastating week will rally or crush them. I’d lean toward the latter. Derek Carr has fallen below 210 passing yards with 1 TD in two straight, and Denver has held quarterbacks to fewer than 20 FP in four straight games. You just can’t trust WRs Henry Ruggs and Bryan Edwards with now and it’s a brutal matchup for Hunter Renfrow against CB Bryce Callahan, so it’s Darren Waller or bust. We’ll see what happens in the backfield, but Josh Jacobs’ snap share, touches, and yards have risen in each of his first three games and he still ran 19 routes with Jalen Richard lurking last week. It’s a tough matchup usually, but Najee Harris posted 23/122/1 rushing and 2/20 receiving against the Broncos last week.
For Javonte Williams owners, you’re hoping the Raiders pack it in, but there’s no way of knowing how they’ll play. Williams just missed out on a long TD run last week, getting tacked inside the 5 on a 49-yard run. Williams had a season-high 86 scrimmage yards and he’s also now posted three catches in three straight games. Denver is a 3.5-point home favorite, and Bears RBs combined for 139/1 rushing and 2/20 receiving against the Raiders last week, and Vegas is the fourth-worst defense in terms of FP/attempt, and the second-worst in terms of broken tackle rate. Williams easily leads all RBs in missed tackles forced per carry (0.35) according to PFF. With Melvin Gordon nursing two different injuries and his arrow pointing down, this could be a breakout game for Williams with 100+ rushing yards. The Raiders have limited opposing passing games lately, and #1 WR types Allen Robinson (4/32 receiving) and Mike Williams (1/11) have laid eggs the last two games, due in part to CB Casey Hayward. That gives a theoretical bump to both Tim Patrick and Noah Fant, who’s usage is better than his production this year. The Raiders have given up three touchdowns to TEs over the last two weeks and they just could not stop the legendary Jesper Horsted last week. It’s actually a so-so matchup overall for Teddy Bridgewater, but he’s always viable.
Dallas Cowboys (4-1) at New England Patriots (2-3)
Players I like more than usual: Hunter Henry, Amari Cooper
Players I’m neutral on: Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, Dalton Schultz, Jakobi Meyers
Players I like less than usual: Damien Harris
Longshot Plays: Mac Jones
Notes: It’s tough to get excited about the Patriots offense right now, but we all think there is a good chance CB Trevon Diggs kicks inside to slow down Jakobi Meyers, especially if Meyers starts racking up the catches, so I like Hunter Henry this week. Henry has out-targeted Jonnu Smith 26 to 22, and run nearly double the routes (135 to 71) while lining up as a WR at a much higher rate (75% to 50%). Opponents are throwing on 70% of their plays against Dallas (2nd-most), who are allowing 311.0 YPG, so Meyers isn’t a bad play at all, but Mac Jones and the secondary receivers are hard to trust/use unless desperate. But perhaps the Pats come out throwing, knowing Dallas has a lot of firepower. Lord knows, we can’t trust Damien Harris, who is always hurt and who’s been putting the ball on the ground. The Cowboys have allowed 4.2 YPC but they’ve faced the fewest carries per game (13.0) from RBs this season, and Rhamondre Stevenson and Brandon Bolden are lurking.
I mean, Davis Mills of all people dropped 312/3 against this defense last week, so we can’t say it’s a bad one for Dak Prescott and his playmakers. They may look to take CeeDee Lamb out, so it could be an Amari Cooper game, but that’s just a guess. Regardless, both are losing out on volume due to Dallas’ improved defense, effective 1-2 punch at RB, and the emergence of Dalton Schultz, and there’s no end in sight. The Patriots are giving up a league-low 5.5 FPG to TEs, but they also haven’t been tested by anyone at the position, by the way.
Seattle Seahawks (2-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (2-3)
Players I like more than usual: Najee Harris, Chase Claypool, Diontae Johnson, Tyler Lockett
Players I’m neutral on: None of note
Players I like less than usual: D.K. Metcalf, Geno Smith, Gerald Everett
Longshot Plays: Ben Roethlisberger
Notes: I really don’t want to be relying on Geno Smith this week or any way, but he was decent last week at least. Geno averaged 20.7 rushing yards per game with seven scores in 29 starts when he first broke into the league with the Jets in 2013-14, so that’s the main positive. Also, it’s not a great matchup by any stretch, but the Steelers have allowed 18+ FP to every quarterback they’ve faced this season, and Teddy Bridgewater posted 288/2 passing last week. D.K. Metcalf did not practice on Friday, and I have a bad feeling about him this week, so it’s conceivable that he’s sat in some leagues. On the other hand, outside WR Courtland Sutton went off with 7/120/1 receiving against the Steelers last week. The better matchup is to get Tyler Lockett in the slot, and the Steelers have given up double-digit FP to slot WRs in every game (7th-most PFG out of the slot on the season), including 5/69/2 receiving to Randall Cobb in Week 4. Gerald Everett will return but Will Dissly is in the mix and the Steelers haven’t allowed a TE to reach 12+ FP in a game this season, with Noah Fant putting up just 3/20 against them last week. Chris Carson is out, so it’ll be Alex Collins leading the way again after he had a 71% snap share with Carson out of the lineup last week. He was solid, but DeeJay Dallas and Travis Homer are lurking, and the Steelers haven’t allowed a RB to reach 12+ FP in a game this season.
On the heels of a complete effort in the run and pass games in Week 5, Najee Harris could see more targets with JuJu Smith-Schuster out for the season, and Harris and their OL are improving as of late. He’s topped 4.0 YPC in their last two games, and the Seahawks are giving up the second-most rushing yards per game (126.6) and 4.4 YPC to RBs this season. Their offense is in trouble this week with Geno facing a tougher defense on the road. No JuJu improves the target numbers for Chase Claypool, who broke out last week, and Diontae Johnson is always a good bet to be peppered with looks. The Seahawks are giving up the second-most receiving yards per game (212.2) and 14.3 YPR to WRs this season. They may change things up this week because their defense has been so bad, but they have been very predictable this year, so a veteran like Ben Roethlisberger could hurt them. The Seahawks are giving up the second-most passing yards (321.6) and the 10th-most FPG (21.5) to QBs this season.
Bills (4-1) at Tennessee Titans (3-2)
Players I like more than usual: Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, Zach Moss
Players I’m neutral on: Dawson Knox, Emmanuel Sanders
Players I like less than usual: Derrick Henry, AJ Brown, Julio Jones, Ryan Tannehill
Longshot Plays: Cole Beasley, Anthony Firkser
Notes: The Titans aren’t brutal against the pass, but they’re not very good. They have a weak pass rush, give up the most FPG out of the slot, and surrender the fifth-highest YPA to QBs so far. They also play a lot of man coverage (7th highest rate), and Stefon Diggs is looking primed to destroy it. Given that slot stat, it would not be a surprise to see Josh Allen go back to Cole Beasley this week, at Dawson Knox’s expense. The Titans are giving up the third-fewest FPG (5.9) against an easy slate of TEs to open the year, but Jaguars TEs combined for 7/65/1 receiving last week, so it’s certainly not hopeless for Knox. Zack Moss has moved ahead of Devin Singletary, a fact made clear by his season-high 74% snap rate last week compared to Singletary’s season-low 26%. Moss has 12+ FP in every game this year and James Robinson had little problems posting 18/149/1 rushing last week against the Titans last week, who give up 4.7 YPC to RBs this season.
Hey, AJ Brown and Julio Jones are great players, so they could always go off. But Brown’s on a snap count and Julio hasn’t played in 21 days. Oh, and the matchup is as tough as it gets. Brown played just 64% of the snaps last week and did little and the Bills are giving up the second-fewest FPG (26.4) to WRs. As mentioned above, Julio hasn’t played in 21 days, so I’d start him in a use-him-if-I-needed him mode. Like if I have bye week issues this week. It’s the worst possible matchup and situation for Derrick Henry, so I’m only saying start him as usual in season-long. I’m out in all other formats. The Bills are giving up just 2.6 YPC and the third-fewest FPG (13.2) to RBs this season, and they could have a big league quickly. Anthony Firkser is a low-end guy all the way, but you can make some hay against Buffalo with a TE.
