Welcome to the IDP Weekend Preview. Each week we’ll take a close look at each matchup based on several factors such as roles, where offenses are giving up FP, snap counts, and tackle crews. As always, start your studs. I won’t be advising you to target no-brainers like Aaron Donald or Roquan Smith.
A “target” is a player who has a higher chance to come through than usual. An “avoid” is a player who has a lower chance to come through than usual.
Teams on Bye: Carolina, Cleveland, Green Bay, Tennessee
TB @ Atl
Targets:
Vita Vea (DT, TB) — Vea has a top-5 matchup this week, facing a weak O-line giving up 1.2 sacks and 2.1 TFL per week to DLs. In a game where Tampa Bay is favored by 11 on the road, Vea should eat.
Avoids:
Grady Jarrett (DT, Atl) — This is a tough week for Jarrett. As we’ve chronicled before, the Tampa Bay offense is last in run % and gives up less than a sack per game. That’s a bad combination for opposing DLs in terms of both tackle floor and big-play upside.
Notable Injuries:
OUT
DL Jonathan Bullard, Atl - ankle
S Mike Edwards, TB - knee
QUESTIONABLE
OLB Jason Pierre-Paul, TB - shoulder
Ari @ Chi
Targets:
Robert Quinn (OLB, Chi) — Quinn knows how to use his full-speed reps wisely. This is a valuable trait that many veteran pass rushers employ; saving your full-effort moves for when you need them because your legs aren’t 21 anymore. Quinn has a great matchup this week to take advantage of those old dog tricks, as the Cardinals produced the 5th-most FPG to the D-line this season.
Alec Ogletree (LB, Chi) — If Roquan Smith doesn’t play — he’s nursing a hamstring injury and got just one limited practice in — Ogletree will likely be an every-down player for Chicago. Based on volume alone, that puts him on the LB2 radar. But that’s if Smith is inactive.
Avoids:
None of note.
Notable Injuries:
OUT
DL Akiem Hicks, Chi - ankle
DL Mario Edwards, Jr., Chi - ribs
QUESTIONABLE
CB Byron Murphy, Jr., Ari - foot
LB Roquan Smith, Chi - hamstring
LAC @ Cin
Targets:
Kyzir White (LB, LAC) — White has been the primary LB in Los Angeles since Week Eight, racking up 51 tackles during that span (3rd-most). This week, White faces a Bengals team that produced the 8th-most tackles to LBs so far this season. He’s got LB1 upside this week.
Linval Joseph (DT, LAC) — Joseph had just 2 tackles last week, but his other numbers (snaps, etc.) all looked good, so this appears to be an outlier for a defender who had 19 tackles over the previous three weeks. He’s been a steady tackler all season and he gets a good matchup this week. Cincinnati is 9th in run % and 7th in FPG to DLs.
Avoids:
Sam Hubbard (DE, Cin) — Wow, what terrible timing. Week 13 tends to be make-or-break for fantasy playoffs hopefuls, and those who have been rolling with Hubbard will be holding their breath this week. Hubbard’s bread-and-butter is defending the run. He has six games of at least 5 tackles, which is impressive for a DE. But this week, his opponent doesn’t think RBs are for carrying the football. Austin Ekeler is a huge part of their offense, but the Chargers are 26th in run rate. Consequently, their 11.1 tackles generated for DLs per game are 2nd-fewest. Hubbard will have a hard time getting to that 6-8 tackle mark (which he’s hit 4 times this year). He might be more like 2-4 this week. Don’t let last week’s game throw you. His 2-tackle performance last week (which included a sack) was largely due to the starters getting rested in a blowout.
Notable Injuries:
OUT
CB Asante Samuel, Jr., LAC - concussion
S Alohi Gilman, LAC - quadricep
QUESTIONABLE
DE Khalid Kareem, Cin - illness
Min @ Det
Targets:
Nick Vigil (LB, Min) — With both Anthony Barr and Eric Kendricks listed as questionable, Vigil should be in line for increased usage. Vigil has produced in high-snap situations during his time in Minnesota. He started the season with 26 tackles in the first three games filling in for Barr, and had 8 tackles last week in that role. I like Vigil a good amount if Barr sits. I like him a whole heckuva lot if Kendricks sits. He would also have the best matchup of the week, as Detroit is #1 in FPG to LBs this season. Minnesota has a 1:00 start, so we should know by 11:30-ish as to Vigil’s fantasy prospects.
Avoids:
None of note.
Notable Injuries:
OUT
DE Trey Flowers, Det - knee
LB Jalen Reeves-Maybin, Det - shoulder
CB Bobby Price, Det - shoulder
S Camryn Bynum, Min - ankle
QUESTIONABLE
DE Michael Brockers, Det - knee
DT Sheldon Richardson, Min - knee
DT Dalvin Tomlinson, Min - NIR
LB Anthony Barr, Min - knee/hamstring
LB Eric Kendricks, Min - biceps
LB Ryan Connelly, Min - quadriceps
CB Bashaud Breeland, Min - groin
CB Mackenzie Alexander, Min - ribs
Ind @ Hou
Targets:
Bobby Okereke (LB, Ind) — Okereke has been an LB2+ for much of the season. He’s had at least 8 tackles in eight of his last ten games. Both Okereke and Darius Leonard have a good matchup this week. The Texans produced the 4th-most FPG to LBs and with Indy expected to win handily, both LBs have some extra big-play upside this week. Both could finish in the top-20 this week.
Avoids:
Kenny Moore II (CB, Ind) — After a blistering start to the season — including at least 7 tackles in seven of his first nine games — Moore has cooled off as of late. His last three games have produced just 5, 3, and 2 tackles. That’s likely due to teams not targeting him as often as they did earlier in the season. Moore might not see many targets this week, either. The Texans tend to create fantasy production on the first two levels of defense, so there’s not much left for the secondary. Houston is 28th in FPG to DBs.
Notable Injuries:
OUT
DE DeMarcus Walker, Hou - hamstring
DB Terrence Brooks, Hou - hamstring
QUESTIONABLE
DE Jonathan Greenard, Hou - foot
DT DeForest Buckner, Ind - knee/foot
CB Rock Ya-Sin, Ind - groin
NYG @ Mia
Targets:
Tae Crowder (LB, NYG) — Crowder had a good game last week, posting 6 tackles (4 solo), an INT, and a PD. He played every down and should be busy this week. Miami is a top-10 opponent for LB production. Crowder has LB1 upside this week.
Avoids:
None of note.
Notable Injuries:
OUT
CB Adoree Jackson, NYG - quadricep
QUESTIONABLE
S Brandon Jones, Mia - ankle/elbow
OLB Jaelan Phillips, Mia - hip
Phi @ NYJ
Targets:
Alex Singleton (LB, Phi) — With Davion Taylor out, Singleton was thrust back into a prominent role last week. He led the team in tackles with 12 (8 solo) on 85% of the snaps. We still prefer T.J. Edwards, who had 7 tackles on 93% of the snaps last week, but Singleton has LB2 upside this week. The Jets don’t run it much, which limits Singleton’s upside (since he’s most productive against the run), but a near-every-down role puts him back on the fantasy map.
Avoids:
Quincy Williams (LB, NYJ) — Williams has a brutal matchup this week. So does primary LB C.J. Mosley, but Williams is likely to be the one more affected by the matchup. The Eagles are 30th in FPG to LBs, which is bad enough. But Williams is nursing a calf injury as well. As an LB who splits time with Jarrad Davis — Wiliams gets the lion’s share of that snap split — he may see his snaps lowered this week to protect against re-aggravating his soft tissue injury. Williams did practice in full on Friday, but with such a bad matchup and the worry of lowered snaps, I’m looking elsewhere for my LB3 this week.
Notable Injuries:
DOUBTFUL
DL Sheldon Rankins, NYJ - knee
QUESTIONABLE
DL John Franklin-Myers, NYJ - hip
Jax @ LAR
Targets:
Jordan Fuller (S, LAR) — After splitting production earlier in the season with Taylor Rapp, Fuller has pulled away as the primary tackler in the secondary. Fuller has at least 7 tackles in five of his last six games and has a stellar matchup this week. The Jaguars are top-5 in pass %, partly based on their propensity to trail in games. As a 2-TD underdog, Trevor Lawrence will likely be throwing it a ton. That’s good news for Fuller, who produces against both the pass and the run. Jacksonville is a top-10 opponent for DBs.
Avoids:
None of note.
Notable Injuries:
OUT
CB Shaquill Griffin, Jax - concussion
Was @ LV
Targets:
Kamren Curl (S, Was) — Before last week, Curl had between 6 and 9 tackles in every game since earning an every-down role back in Week Six. Last week’s 4-tackle performance was largely due to a Seattle offense that mustered just 10 first downs (though Curl did have a sack). So I’m not worried about Curl going forward. Speaking of going forward, Curl won’t have Landon Collins in front of him as tackle competition this week. Collins will miss this week due to a foot injury.
Avoids:
Daron Payne (DT, Was) — Payne and the whole Washington D-line might be in for a slow game. The Raiders are bottom-5 in run % and bottom-10 in FPG to DLs. With Josh Jacobs banged up, that run % might be even lower than usual this week.
Notable Injuries:
OUT
DE Carl Nassib, LV - knee
S Landon Collins, Was - foot
QUESTIONABLE
LB Nick Kwiatkoski, LV - ankle
Bal @ Pit
Targets:
Patrick Queen (LB, Bal) — Queen’s on-field play has taken a leap in the past few weeks. He started the season poorly, struggling mightily against both the run and the pass. But his tackling, play speed, and run defense have all magically reappeared. That has resulted in a promotion in usage from 30-40% to 60-70%. He’s got a great matchup this week against the Steelers, who produce 25 tackles per week to LBs.
Alex Highsmith (OLB, Pit) — Highsmith had a strong game last week, as he applied more pressure on QB Joe Burrow than T.J. Watt did. Both Watt — who recently passed his COVID tests and is in line to start this week — and Highsmith have a juicy matchup. Baltimore runs it at the 7th-highest rate and produces the 3rd-most FPG to D-lines.
Avoids:
None of note.
Notable Injuries:
OUT
CB Joe Haden, Pit - foot
LB Robert Spillane, Pit - knee
QUESTIONABLE
OLB Odafe Oweh, Bal - shoulder
CB Marlon Humphrey, Bal - illness
CB Jimmy Smith, Bal - neck
CB Tavon Young, Bal - illness
CB Anthony Averett, Bal - shoulder/ankle
SF @ Sea
Targets:
Azeez Al-Shaair (LB, SF) — Al-Shaair produced early with Dre Greenlaw on IR, and with Greenlaw out this week and Fred Warner doubtful (DNP all week), Al-Shaair has a ton of volume coming his way. Seattle’s offense tends to create most of their IDP production upfront, so that also bodes well for Al-Shaair’s prospects. Though Seattle plans to shake up their offense this week, it's not likely a full identity change is coming.
Avoids:
None of note.
Notable Injuries:
OUT
DT Maurice Hurst, SF - calf
LB Dre Greenlaw, SF - groin
DOUBTFUL
LB Fred Warner, SF - hamstring
QUESTIONABLE
CB Arthur Maulet, Bal - quadricep
LB Marcell Harris, SF - concussion
Den @ KC
Targets:
None of note.
Avoids:
None of note.
Notable Injuries:
OUT
CB Rashad Fenton, KC - knee
QUESTIONABLE
DE Shelby Harris, Den - ankle
OLB Jonathan Cooper, Den - neck
NE @ Buf
Targets:
Jordan Poyer (S, Buf) — Poyer has had a bit of an up-and-down season for fantasy, but this sure looks like one of those “up” games. Not only does New England produce the 3rd-most FPG to DBs this season, stud CB Tre’Davious White is on IR, meaning Poyer may be busier than usual with double-teams and coverage on a side of the field he rarely has to worry about. Add to that the 40 MPH winds predicted for this game, and he might get some wobbly footballs heading his way this week.
Avoids:
None of note.
Notable Injuries:
QUESTIONABLE
LB Matt Milano, Buf - shoulder
DT Star Lotulelei, Buf - illness
DT Christian Bramore, NE - knee
LB Donta Hightower, NE - ankle
LB JaWhaun Bentley, NE - ribs
