Here’s my very quick look at the week. If you want more information and analysis, you can always read our Week 10 Game Hubs.
Indianapolis Colts (5-5) at Buffalo Bills (6-3)
Players I like more than usual: Stefon Diggs, Josh Allen, Dawson Knox,
Players I’m neutral on: Jonathan Taylor, Nyheim Hines, Zack Moss, Devin Singletary
Players I like less than usual: Michael Pittman, Carson Wentz, Cole Beasley (inj)
Longshot Plays: Emmanuel Sanders, Gabriel Davis
Notes: I’m obviously feeling terrible about Carson Wentz (who just had a kid and has been burning the midnight oil) and the Colts passing game, given Wentz’ shakiness and the brutal matchup. Michel Pittman is certainly capable of hauling 5-6 balls, but if he does that for 60-70 yards, consider yourself lucky since the Bills have erased #1 WRs this year. Pittman had only a 15% target share last week with T.Y. Hilton back, which is scary for Pittman. There’s literally no other Colts receiver you can use because these guys love to show us how smart they are by using 4-5 WRs, 2-3 TEs, and throwing the ball to at least 2 RBs. Jonathan Taylor totaled just 23/84/1 total yards against the Bills in the Wild Card Round last season and will need similar volume to come through with a strong showing of 15-20 FP. But we can confidently say he will get that volume. It would help if excellent LB Tremaine Edmunds missed the game today. Nyheim Hines put up fewer than 30 scrimmage yards for the sixth time in his last seven last week, but they are playing a high-powered offense, so 3-4 grabs is very possible.
The Bills offense was more about the run last week, so we’ll see if that was a fluke or not. I’d lean to it not being a fluke, but this is still a high-powered offense that is potent for fantasy, and Josh Allen was still slinging it to a wide open Stefon Diggs all day. The Colts do not have the corners to slow Diggs down, and I assume Allen is prepared to stay patient. That could work out well for Dawson Knox, who wasn’t needed last week and who has a good matchup. The Colts will likely present some problems for Allen like the Jags did two weeks ago, but they’re also giving up the fourth-most FPG (21.1) to QBs this season, and Allen put up 324/2 passing and 54/1 rushing against them last postseason. Emmanuel Sanders could be helped by Cole Beasley and his injured ribs and the Colts are still giving up the most receiving TDs per game (1.5) to WRs this season. If Beasley is still hurting, that also puts Gabriel Davis on the radar as a longshot play. He is good. If Matt Breida is going to be involved now, it’s a real problem. Breida was also effective last week, and his speed could be a handful for defenses spread out against their 3-4 WR sets. The Colts are also giving up the second-fewest FPG to RBs (18.6) this season.
Washington Football Team (3-6) at Carolina Panthers (5-5)
Players I like more than usual: Antonio Gibson
Players I’m neutral on: Cam Newton, Christian McCaffrey, Terry McLaurin
Players I like less than usual: DJ Moore, JD McKissic
Longshot Plays: Robby Anderson, John Bates
Notes: The only good news for those looking at Cam Newton this week is that the FT has given up a lot of rushing production to QBs, but PJ Walker is going to be in the mix, and how much in the mix depends on his play and also Cam’s play. Which means it’s an impossible (and rare) situation to handicap. I listened to HD Matt Rhule discuss this “rotation” on SXM NFL Radio Friday night and it did not sound encouraging. Cam’s obviously the best choice and could easily rush for 1-2 TDs. We can’t say it’s a bad matchup, as well, since Washington is still giving up the most FPG (24.5) to QBs this season, and they just lost defensive stalwarts Chase Young and Montez Sweat. Christian McCaffrey is fully back and is a plug-and play guy, obviously. His biggest problem at this point is Cam vulturing short TDs. I just don’t know what to do with D.J. Moore at this point, especially this week with the unsettled QB situation. Moore will see a lot of CB William Jackson, who really contained Mike Evans last week other than one play (TD). I certainly don’t trust Robby Anderson yet, but he’s at least back on the viable desperation play radar, and the matchup is solid, plus he clicked with Cam last week.
It’s a tough matchup overall, so Taylor Heinicke is a so-so reach this week. He’s hit 16+ FP just once in his last five games, and he may just own the Bucs, explaining last week’s good performance. The Panthers are legit giving up 9.3 FPG to QBs the last four weeks. Terry McLaurin is a little frustrating and has hit 65+ receiving yards in just three of his nine games. He’ll be a marked man with Ricky Seals-Jones (hip) out, so I can’t say he’s a must-start, since the Panthers are allowing the second-fewest receiving yards per game (125.8) to WRs. On the positive side, he should be busy. It’ll be rookie John Bates at TE for TFT this week, and he did look solid last week, catching all 3 of his targets for 25. This is a TE-centric offense, so 4-5 grabs would surprise me. I do not trust DeAndre Carter yet, but I will if he goes over 10 FP again this week. The Panthers give up very little production in the passing game against RBs, and can be run on, so I like Antonio Gibson to get volume again in a Ron Rivera revenge game.
Baltimore Ravens (6-3) at Chicago Bears (3-6)
Players I like more than usual: Rashod Bateman, Mark Andrews, Darnell Mooney, Cole Kmet
Players I’m neutral on: Justin Fields, David Montgomery, Lamar Jackson (check status), Devonta Freeman
Players I like less than usual: None of note.
Longshot Plays: Sammy Watkins
Notes: Oh, boy, what a mess. Marqise Brown has been ruled out, and Lamar Jackson was re-added to the injury report Saturday with an illness. Obviously, check all the updates Sunday morning, and we’ll be updating projections accordingly if news comes out on Lamar. If he can’t go, it’ll be Lamar clone Tyler Huntley, and he will also run. In the meantime, it’s good news for Rashod Bateman, who has double-digit FP in his last three games. I don’t know if he can play in Hollywood’s spot, but it’s a beatable matchup overall for sure. Even Sammy Watkins is now on the longshot radar and slot man Devin Duvernay could flirt with double-digit FP. The matchup is tough by the numbers for Mark Andrews, but Pat Freiermuth did get them for 5/43/2 in their last game and he should see an extra look or two with Brown out. Latavius Murray is expected to return, but other than some work here and there, and likely goal line carries, Devonta Freeman should still lead the way in this backfield.
The Ravens will not have DT Brandon Williams, which is huge for David Montgomery, and also no LB Pernell McPhee helps. Khalil Herbert did not have much of a role in their last games as Montgomery played season-high 85% snap share, and he looked very good. It’s hard to trust Justin Fields without Allen Robinson, but the Ravens are giving up a league-high 298.6 passing yards per game to QBs, and I do like Darnell Mooney and Cole Kmet. Mooney has put up 12+ FP in three of his last four, and the Ravens are giving up a generous 14.8 YPR to WRs, and even the Dolphins had three different WRs reach double-digit FP last week. Mooney is looking at 10+ targets with Robinson doubtful, and he’s fast and savvy enough to overcome the increased attention he’ll receive. Kmet has seen 6+ targets in three straight and the Ravens are still giving up the third-most FPG (17.5) to TEs despite Mike Gesicki goose egging us last week.
Detroit Lions (0-8-1) at Cleveland Browns (5-5)
Players I like more than usual: Nick Chubb, D’Ernest Johnson
Players I’m neutral on: Jarvis Landry, Baker Mayfield
Players I like less than usual: TJ Hockenson
Longshot Plays: Donovan Peoples-Jones, Kalif Raymond, Jamaal Williams
Notes: The Lions are starting former Packer #3 QB Tim Boyle, who is one of the least accomplished QBs I’ve ever seen in terms of his work in college and the pros. I already think I like his chances to do something because his name is not “Jared Goff.” Seriously, Boyle is known for his big arm, but I don’t think the Lions have anyone capable of making a big play down the field. If I had to guess, it would be Kalif Raymond, who can run and was second on the team in routes run last week. You can’t use Amon-Ra St. Brown (although slot corner Troy Hill is out) and T.J. Hockenson has a tougher matchup against the Browns, who are giving up only 4/40 per game to TEs. But, as we often see, a chance can inject some life into a struggling offense, if only for 1-2 quarters. I’m actually a little concerned for D’Andre Swift after he saw 33 of Detroit’s 39 carries last week, but you have to use him unless you’re truly loaded. Jamaal Williams will be back, though, and I would not be surprised to see him get a meaningful number of carries given Swift’s Week 10 workload.
The Browns are also in bad shape, but not nearly as bad as Detroit. Nick Chubb is back, and you’re using him, but I’d expect a healthy role for D’Ernest Johnson, especially given the opponent. The Lions defense has been allowing the fourth-most rushing yards per game (109.9) and 4.3 YPC to RBs. You’d think it was a good matchup for Baker Mayfield, and it’s certainly not a bad matchup, but the Lions haven’t been that bad against the pass. They do still give up 242/2 the last four weeks, but Baker is really hard to trust. Steelers’ slot WR Ray-Ray McCloud posted 9/63 receiving against the Lions last week, but Detroit has been above-average covering the slot, and Jarvis Landry has finished with fewer than seven FP in his first two games without Odell Beckham. If I take a flyer with anyone, it’s Donovan Peoples-Jones, since the Lions have been vulnerable to big plays. David Njoku and Austin Hooper are splitting things almost down the middle, rendering both unuseable. Njoku is lining up all over the place, and he has 2/29/1 in his last eight quarters.
San Francisco 49ers (4-5) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-7)
Players I like more than usual: Jeff Wilson, George Kittle, Deebo Samuel
Players I’m neutral on: Jimmy Garappolo, Brandon Aiyuk, James Robinson
Players I like less than usual: Dan Arnold, Marvin Jones, Laviska Sheanult
Longshot Plays: Jamal Agnew
Notes: With Elijah Mitchell doubtful, Jeff Wilson is an obvious candidate for 20+ touches in this backfield. Mitchell had a season-high 27 carries last week despite playing only 53% of the snaps. Wilson should be the top runner AND the top receiver with JaMycal Hasty OUT with an ankle injury. The Jaguars are giving up just 3.7 YPC but they’re giving up the fourth-most rushing TDs per game (1.0) to RBs, and the 49ers are 6.5 road favorites against the hapless Jaguars, who have been held to fewer than 20 points in five of their nine games and have not scored 23 points yet this year. Wilson had 21 targets in his final five games last year, and he actually scored a receiving TD in his final two games in 2020. Unless Trey Sermon emerges from the grave (AKA Kyle Shanahan’s doghouse) and gets a lot of chances and does well with him, Wilson should be very busy. Otherwise, Jimmy Garappolo is playing well, and it’s a good matchup for Deebo Samuel against a very beatable Jaguar secondary. I just don’t know how much Garoppolo will have to do, and the Jaguars’ defensive front has been playing well the last two weeks, limiting Josh Allen and Carson Wentz the last two weeks. George Kittle has been rolling the last two weeks, and the Jags are allowing a generous 8.8 YPT to the position (second-most) and the third-most FP/target to TEs. Brandon Aiyuk is a viable longshot play for now, and he did have a solid 21% share last week and the Jaguars are giving up the seventh-most receiving yards per game (182.2) to WRs.
For a minute there last week, it looked like James Robinson was going to be a buzzkill, and he saw just 59% of the snaps, but he came through and has now scored 18+ FP in each of his last five full games. It’s a middling matchup against the 49ers, but this guy can move the ball against anyone and he’s been a little more active in the passing game, averaging 3.0 targets/game his last four despite his snaps limited the last two weeks. The 49ers defense has looked bad in the secondary as recently as two weeks ago, but Trevor Lawrence has averaged a miserable 4.5 YPA in his last three, and the 49ers got after it and contained Matthew Stafford last week. Jamal Agnew is the only WR who can be trusted, since Marvin Jones and Laviska Sheanult continue to cliff dive. The 49ers are giving up the 10th-fewest FPG (34.2) to WRs this season. Once again, Dan Arnold is the only receiver on the Jags you can feel okay about, and he has a large role and is actually leading the team with a 20% share since DJ Chark left the lineup. Unfortunately, the 49ers haven’t allowed 40+ receiving yards to a TE since Week 1.
Green Bay Packers (8-2) at Minnesota Vikings (4-5)
Players I like more than usual: Davante Adams, AJ Dillon, Adam Thielen
Players I’m neutral on: Aaron Rodgers, Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson, Kirk Cousins
Players I like less than usual: None of note
Longshot Plays: Tyler Conklin, Marquez Valdes-Scantling
Notes: Aaron Rodgers failed to throw a TD pass last week after registering multiple TDs in seven straight, but Rodgers shredded the Vikings for 755 yards and 7 TDs in two meetings last season, and the Vikings, while healthier on defense for this one, are still vulnerable. They will get Patrick Peterson back this week, but between him and Cameron Dantzler, I think they will get rocked by Davante Adams, especially if they try him out in man coverage. If they go zone, he can nickel and dime them to death with a 35.4% target share the last two weeks. The only downside is if the surging Packers defense plays well and limits the Vikings, but the game is in Minnesota, which helps. The Vikings still give up the second-most FPG to outside WRs. That could bode well for Marquez Valdes-Scantling, since Allen Lazard is doubtful and Randall Cobb can handle most of the tougher matchup in the slot. Aaron Jones played on 46% of the snaps last week, yet AJ Dillon still got 23 touches, 128 total yards, and 26.8 fantasy points. The only other active RB on the roster is Patrick Taylor, who played on 3 snaps last week and has 2 total touches in his career, so we’re looking at at least 80% of the snaps this week. He’s up against a Vikings defense that ranks 10th-worst in YPC allowed (4.48), 8th-worst in rushing FPG allowed (14.8), and one his QB crushed last season.
I’m struggling with the Vikings offense this week, since the Packers defense has been really good. Dalvin Cook “cooked” the Packers last week with 42/213/5 rushing and 3/61/1 receiving, but Green Bay is giving up the ninth-fewest FPG (22.1) to RBs this season. Kirk Cousins had an underwhelming 419/3 passing in two games vs. GB last year, and Green Bay’s defense has destroyed Russell Wilson and Patrick Mahomes the last two weeks. I do see Cousins having to throw 35+ times, at least. Justin Jefferson had just 5/52 receiving in two games in this matchup last year, and Adam Thielen has been a Packers killer with 9/137/2 in two games in this matchup last season. I’m making a late call here that it will be a Thielen game, since GB is still top-10 in their rate of cover 1. Tyler Conklin has 5+ targets and 3+ catches in four straight and Gerald Everett caught all eight of his targets for 63 yards in this matchup last week, so I like Conkin as a sneaky play again this week.
Miami Dolphins (3-7) at New York Jets (2-7)
Players I like more than usual: Tua Tagovailoa, Jaylen Waddle, Mike Gesicki, Myles Gaskin
Players I’m neutral on: Michael Carter, Ty Johnson, Corey Davis, Elijah Moore
Players I like less than usual: None of note
Longshot Plays: None of note
Notes: It’s fair to say Tua Tagovailoa is a matchup guy. When the matchup is good, he can excel, and when it’s bad, he usually has a tough time. Tua posted 22+ FP in his first two games back from a rib injury in Weeks 6-7 against the Falcons and Jaguars, and the Jets have given up multiple TD passes, 255+ passing yards, and 21+ FP in five straight and just put solid CB Brandin Echols on IR. Tua is dealing with the fractured finger on his throwing hand and sore ribs, but he should get it done this week. They do spread the ball around bit here, but they are also down DeVante Parker (hamstring, IR), so Jaylen Waddle will be the clear #1 WR again this week. He will be in the slot often, and the Jets have been lenient inside. Last week, thanks to only 2+ quarters of Tua, he turned six targets into a serviceable 4/61 receiving, and the Jets have fallen apart on defense and are giving up 14.1 YPR to WRs, and since Week 7 no defense has relinquished more FPG to WRs (47.3). Despite crapping the bed last week, Mike Gesicki at least saw a position-best 81% of the snaps, and the Jets are very, very beatable, especially with S Marcus Maye on IR. They give up the seventh-most YP/Target to TEs, and the 10th-most FP/T to TEs. Myles Gaskin, or Mr. Every-Other-Week, is due to have a good game and he’s set to do well based on the matchup. This Jets defense was giving up an amazing 45+ FPG to RBs the previous four weeks going into Week 10, and then they gave up 4 TDs to Bills RBs last week. Now they’re giving up 47 FPG to RBs in their last four, including 6.2 YPC and 6.8/72/.8 per game to RBs in the passing game. The team DID activate Duke Johnson from the practice squad, and he may get a shot, but I can’t let that scare me off Gaskin.
I really want to love Elijah Moore this week, but he continues to be a part-time receiver, and they refuse to play him in the slot, where he can dominate. Moore does have double-digit FP with 6+ targets in four straight and there’s hope with Joe Flacco. It’s a tiny sample, but with Flacco, Moore has a target share of 66%, a yardage share of 85%, and a TD share of 100%. Flacco is a guy who targets WRs, so Corey Davis isn’t hopeless. The problem is they insist on playing Keelan Cole over Moore at times, and even still give snaps to Braxton Berrios. Michael Carter’s snap share dipped to 52% with Tevin Coleman back last week, which isn’t great. And Ty Johnson is still well in the mix. Flacco can get these guys the ball as well, though, and the Dolphins are giving up a solid 125.5 scrimmage yards per game to RBs.
New Orleans Saints (5-4) at Philadelphia Eagles (4-6)
Players I like more than usual: Mark Ingram
Players I’m neutral on: Jalen Hurts, Devonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, Tre’Quan Smith
Players I like less than usual: Marquez Callaway
Longshot Plays: Adam Trautman, Deonte Harris
Notes: We know Alvin Kamara is out and that Mark Ingram last week dominated in snap share (85%) and every statistical category finishing with 18/111/1. scrimmage. Ingram will once again lead this backfield, but Tony Jones has been activated off IR, so we can presume he’s ready to go. You’d think his touches will not be a big problem for Ingram, but you never know. And keep in mind, both starting OTs are out for the Saints. That’s not good news for Trevor Siemian, who has been solid. But I’m avoiding the Saints offense this week against an improved Eagles defense. Marquez Callaway is the best bet to get the Darius Slay treatment, but Tre’Quan Smith is being used as the team’s #1 WR with a team-best 36 routes against the Titans, so Deonte Harris may be the play. If you need to dig deep at TE, I could totally see Adam Trautman having a breakout game against this defense. He’s seen 6+ targets in three straight games since Siemian entered the lineup, and the Eagles are giving up a league-high 19.8 FPG to TEs this season.
The Eagles are very unpredictable right now, and with Miles Sanders back, they now have four different RBs potentially in the mix. I’d have to assume Sanders takes back at least 50% of the snaps and carries, and HC Nick Sirianni called him the team’s starting RB this week. That makes Jordan Howard and Boston Scott desperation plays only in my mind. Keep in mind it’s a tough matchup against a Saints’ run defense that’s giving up the fewest rushing yards per game (53.7) and just 2.8 YPC to RBs. Jalen Hurts feels volatile to me right now but the fact is, he’s getting better and is making fewer mistakes. Teams typically take to the air against the Saints, so the Eagles could throw the ball more this week and they give up the sixth-most passing yards per game (280.4) to QBs. That would be great news for Devonta Smith, but I can’t say I love Smith. His matchup with Marshawn Lattimore should be interesting. He can burn him for sure, but also get pounded and beat on. Dallas Goedert is set to start after suffering a concussion last week. It’s not the best matchup, but he’s always viable.
Houston Texans (1-8) at Tennessee Titans (8-2)
Players I like more than usual: AJ Brown, Ryan Tannehill, Brandin Cooks, D’Onta Foreman
Players I’m neutral on: Tyrod Taylor, Nico Collins, David Johnson
Players I like less than usual: None of note
Longshot Plays: Marcus Johnson
Notes: Tyrod Taylor really let us down last time out, but the Titans are giving up the sixth-most passing yards per game (287) to QBs, and Trevor Siemian posted 298/2 passing last week. At the very least, that’s good news for Brandin Cooks, who is up to a 30% target share overall, which ranks fifth highest in the league. He’s at 34% share in the three games that Tyrod has started, and the Titans’ secondary is facing a league-high 25.3 targets per game and they’re giving up the most receiving yards per game (212.7) to WRs. The only other Texan I’d look at is rookie Nico Collins, but he’s not yet shown enough to reach him. David Johnson led the backfield with a 45% snap share and 7/40 scrimmage the last time out against the Dolphins, that’s all I can tell you.
I have to say, with Jeremy McNichols out, I like D’Onta Foreman this week. He’s played the best and has more versatility than Adrian Peterson. The Titans are 10-point favorites, so both backs may get a lot of work, but Foreman’s a good bet to get you 10-12 points at least. Ryan Tannehill may not have to do much, but he’s been a Texan killer, and he’s scored rushing TDs in four of his last five games, and the Texans are giving up the ninth-most FPG (20.2) to QBs this season. A.J. Brown’s matchup is as good as it gets, so start him. I also like Marcus Johnson as a reach. He looked good last week over the middle and he’s got some juice, and they need him. Geoff Swaim is out, so that could help Johnson’s red zone love.
Cincinnati Bengals (5-4) at Las Vegas Raiders (5-4)
Players I like more than usual: Joe Mixon Tee Higgins, Derek Carr, Hunter Renfrow
Players I’m neutral on: Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Darren Waller
Players I like less than usual: Tyler Boyd
Longshot Plays:
Notes: I have no qualms with Joe Burrow and the Bengals in this matchup, especially since Las Vegas has allowed three of the last four QBs they’ve faced to reach 22+ FP. Ja’Marr Chase could end up seeing the most of top corner Casey Hayward, so Tee Higgins once again looks really interesting with Tyler Boyd facing a tougher matchup in the slot. The Raiders have held WRs to the fourth-fewest receiving yards per game (129.6), though, so C.J. Uzomah may be needed. The Raiders are giving up the second-most FPG (18.2) to TEs, and they’ve allowed touchdowns to TEs in each of the last two weeks. Joe Mixon (has 25+ FP in three of his last four, thanks in large part to his sudden involvement in the passing game. He has 4+ catches and 45+ receiving yards in his three recent big games, and Darrel Williams just ripped the Raiders for 11/43 rushing and 9/101/1 receiving for 29.4 FP last week. Mixon is running 21.3 routes per game over his last four outings, which is Alvin Kamara-like.
When Greg Cosell and Wes Huber sign off on a matchup and a play, I’m also in, and those guys both like Derek Carr and his matchup this week. Carr has 2 TD passes in 7-of-9 games and is averaging career-highs in yards per game (314.0) and YPA (8.1). The Bengals are giving up the 10th-most passing yards per game (274.6) and a struggling Baker Mayfield averaged 10.4 YPA against the Bengals in Week 9, their last game, so I like Carr this week. Hunter Renfrow is his guy and the most reliable Raiders receiver, and the Bengals give up the sixth-most FPG out of the slot. The Bengals are also giving up the fifth-most receptions per game (14.2) to WRs, and Bryan Edwards did go for 3/88/1 last week. However, he’s not a brillant reach, since Cincy gives up the 11th-fewest FPG to outside WRs. At least Donovan Peoples-Jones got loose for 2/86/1 receiving in this matchup in Week 9. Darren Waller just missed a TD last week and the Bengals allowed touchdowns to a TE in their last two games before their bye. Josh Jacobs has been up and down on the ground, but he’s at least posted 12 catches in his last three games. Kenyan Drake wasn’t much better last week, and the Bengals are giving up the ninth-fewest rushing yards per game (77.8) and the fourth-most receiving yards per game (61.4) to RBs, so these guys are use-them-if-you-need-them guys.
Dallas Cowboys (7-2) at Kansas City Chiefs (6-4)
Players I like more than usual: CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup, Dalton Schultz
Players I’m neutral on: Ezekiel Elliott, Dak Prescott, Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Darrel Williams, Clyde Edward-Helaire
Players I like less than usual: None of note.
Longshot Plays: None of note.
Notes: Dak Prescott will not have Amari Cooper, and while the Chiefs have improved on defense and have held three straight QBs under 20 FP, they’re still giving up the second-most PFG (22.3) to QBs, and this game has the highest expected total of the week. Cooper’s target share sits at 20% for the season, so CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup’s share should increase. I think Dak will lean on Dalton Schultz underneath in this one, on the season, KC allows the second-most FP per target to TEs, and the highest yards-per-target to TEs, and they have given up 3 TDs to the position in their last four games. Ezekiel Elliott is hanging in there despite some issues in terms of rushing production and snap shares, but he has 3+ catches his last three games, and he’s a good bet to score with some many points expected for a reach.
Patrick Mahomes made dramatic improvement in his play last week, basically staying patient and taking what the defense gave him, and it resulted in a season-best 36.2 FP last week. The Cowboys have been stingy, but they do play more man coverage than all but 2-3 other teams, and if they try that against KC, we do not think they have a corner who can cover Tyreek Hill, who looked great last week. CB Trevon Diggs has actually given up a lot of plays, and their other corners are beatable for sure. Travis Kelce 17+ FP in seven of his 10 games this season. Kyle Pitts quickly posted 4/60 receiving against the Cowboys last week, but the Falcons gave up and pulled starters. Clyde Edwards-Helaire has been activated, so he should play. I’m guessing he handles 70% of the carries, but that Darrel Williams handles 70% of the receiving work. The Cowboys are giving up a solid 124.5 scrimmage yards per game but just five TDs to RBs this season.
Arizona Cardinals (8-2) at Seattle Seahawks (3-6)
Players I like more than usual: James Conner, Christian Kirk
Players I’m neutral on: Alex Collins, Russell Wilson, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett
Players I like less than usual: Kyler Murray, Colt McCoy
Longshot Plays: Zach Ertz, Gerald Everett
Notes: It’s not looking good for Kyler Murray again this week, and since it’s a late game, you might as well remove him from consideration. It’s also a bad matchup, as the Seahawks made some major adjustments after the first month of the season and have held the last six quarterbacks they’ve faced to under 18 FP. DeAndre Hopkins is also out again, so Christian Kirk has a chance again. He’s got 4+ catches in every game and 10+ FP in five of his six, and the Seahawks are giving up the 11th-most catches per game (13.2) to WRs this season. A.J. Green is hard to trust after he had his worst game of the season last week. Colt McCoy in the lineup should give Zach Ertz a chance, and he saw six targets and an 82% snap share last week, if you’re desperate. The best option is obviously James Conner, who logged a season-high 82% snap share last week. The Packers RBs combined for 140+ total yards and 2 TDs in this matchup last week.
Russell Wilson did not look good on film last week, so if he does not run a little today, it could be a tough go again. He may knock some rust off this week, though, and he did total 585/5 passing in two games against the Cardinals last season. D.K. Metcalf should be in a decent spot, as the Cardinals are giving up the fourth-most receiving TDs per game (1.3) to WRs this season. Tyler Lockett benefited from Patrick Peterson handling Metcalf last year, posting 24/267/4 receiving, so he’s hard to sit as a WR3. Gerald Everett excelled with Wilson back last week, posting a season-best 14.3 FP and he caught all eight of his targets (20% share) for a team-high 63 yards, but he’s not a great, great reach as the Cardinals are allowing the fewest FPG (7.3) to TEs this season. Chris Carson is long gone, so Alex Collins is the top runner again, but they are talking about Rashad Penny getting involved, and why wouldn’t he be involved, since he’s a free agent in 2022?
Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3-1) at Los Angeles Chargers (5-4)
Players I like more than usual: Najee Harris, Pat Friermuth, Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen
Players I’m neutral on: Diontae Johnson, Austin Eckler
Players I like less than usual: Chase Claypool, Ben Roethlisberger
Longshot Plays: None of note
Notes: Justin Herbert so far in his career has not been very good against cover 1 teams, but the Steelers are one of the more zone-heavy teams in the league, and they will be without their best defensive player in TJ Watt and also CB Joe Haden. Pittsburgh definitely showed some vulnerabilities in Week 9 against Justin Fields, who shrugged off a poor first half to finish with 291/1 passing. Even Allen Robinson got 4/68 on them for God’s sake. They’re also giving up the ninth-most FPG to slot receivers, so Keenan Allen is looking good. Mike Williams let me down big time last week, but he’s hardly a lost cause and just missed a TD last week. Jared Cook is coming off a one-catch performance and the Steelers have given up just two receiving TDs to TEs this season. Austin Ekeler’s prospects improved with the Steeler defensive issues, and Pittsburgh did get run all over last week.
It looks like Ben Roethlisberger will go, but it’s a tougher matchup this week against the Chargers, who will have DE Joey Bosa. Diontae Johnson is still going to be busy, though, and Justin Jefferson (9/143 receiving) and DeVonta Smith (5/116/1) have beaten up an undermanned Chargers’ secondary in the last two weeks, but they are healthier. For good measure, I’m not going to recommend a banged up Chase Claypool or James Washington or Ray-Ray McCloud. I will recommend Pat Friermuth, though. There's a downside to using him, since the return of TE Eric Ebron did cause Freiermuth’s role to take a hit. But Roethlisberger's back, and the Chargers have yet to figure out a way to slow down opposing TEs, giving up the fifth-most FPG to the position (16.6). He is Mr. Red Zone and Endzone, so if he can score, he’ll deliver an excellent return. Najee Harris had another huge volume game last week with 30 touches, and he probably didn’t score last week because of the nasty weather. But with 22+ carries in five straight and 3+ catches in four straight, he should be golden against a Chargers defense that gives up a league-high 127.8 rushing yards per game to RBs. Dalvin Cook posted 27/118/1 scrimmage in this matchup last week, and that was with DT Linval Joseph in the lineup (he’s doubtful).
New York Giants (3-6) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-3)
Players I like more than usual: Kadarius Toney, Kenny Golladay, Chris Godwin, Leonard Fournette
Players I’m neutral on: Saquon Barkley, Mike Evans, Evan Engram, Rob Gronkowski
Players I like less than usual: None of note.
Longshot Plays: Daniel Jones
Notes: Daniel Jones will not have Sterling Shepard, but things are looking good otherwise in terms of his OL with LT Andrew Thomas, who was great before going on IR. The Bucs defense has been very good the last 4-5 weeks, but they won’t likely have stud DT Vita Vea, which is a big help to the Giants, who should also welcome Saquon Barkley back to assist in the offense. Jones completed 25/41 passes for 246 yards and 2 TDs (with also 2 INTs), and he added 3/20 rushing when these teams met on MNF last season. I can see a similar output in this one, and playing from behind should make 15+ FP very doable. With Shepard out and Kadarius Toney off the injury report and off a bye, and with the Giants certainly playing from behind, you can be damn sure I’m starting him. If he doesn’t get at least 8 looks/touches in the game, OC Jason Garrett should be fired on the spot. All you have to do is plan on getting him the ball and design only some decent plays and let him do the rest. 15+ FP is a lot to ask, but it’s insanely doable and likely if he can find the endzone. I say all this knowing the Bucs defense is healthier and has been very singy lately. Kenny Golladay is also in a good spot, and you could do worse for a reach TE than Evan Engram. As for Barkley, no Vita Vea would help a lot, and it seems like Barkley will handle a larger workload and snapshare.
I actually think the Giants may slow Tom Brady down a bit in this one, and Brady threw multiple INTs for the second consecutive game last week. Brady completed 28/40 passes for 279 yards and two TDs when these teams met last season, and I could see something similar after the
Giants limited Derek Carr and Patrick Mahomes to one TD pass each with 15 or fewer FP the last two weeks. Mike Evans has scored in three consecutive games but he’s caught exactly two passes in three of his last four games and Rob Gronkowski is now back. You’re using Evans and Chris Godwin, of course, but I’d lower expectations a tad for Evans. The Giants are giving up the seventh-most catches per game (13.8) to WRs, good news for Godwin. Leonard Fournette is looking good in this one, as the Giants can be run on and Fournette is still getting most of the RB catches.
