This is the year I’m actually going to follow-through on my promise to be more concise and to basically just list players I like this week more or less than usual.
It’s hard for me to make a pick without backing it up, and I will do that often here, but covering every possible option is more of a waste of time for you and me than it’s beneficial. The projections rank all the players of note, and I do those, so if you really want to see how I stack up every player of note, check there.
The goal here is to give you everything of note I have for a given week - in a 5-minute read. Let’s see how I do.
Philadelphia Eagles at Atlanta Falcons
Players I like more than usual: Jalen Hurts, Kyle Pitts, Calvin Ridley, Miles Sanders
Players I’m neutral on: Mike Davis, Jalen Reagor, Devonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, Zach Ertz
Players I like less than usual: Kenny Gainwell (rookie)
Longshot Plays: Russell Gage
Notes: As pointed out by Greg Cosell, Falcon DC Dean Peas is good at confusing young QBs, so I’d bet the coaches have told Hurts to run this week if he doesn’t know what he sees. The matchup is certainly conducive for Miles Sanders to get the ball in the running game. Eagles SS Rodney McLeod ruled out, which hurts their ability to slow down Kyle Pitts, so I’m feeling a big game. I think we’ll see Darius Slay on Calvin Ridley, and I think Ridley will win that matchup.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills
Players I like more than usual: Gabriel Davis, Chase Claypool, Josh Allen
Players I’m neutral on: Stefon Diggs, Ben Roethlisberger, Diontae Johnson, Najee Harris, Cole Beasley
Players I like less than usual: JuJu Smith-Schuster, Emmanuel Sanders, Devin Singletary, Zack Moss
Longshot Plays: None
Notes: I’m not that worried about the Steelers defense for Josh Allen, who played very well in the second half of their game last year. The Steeler D has taken a couple of hits in the secondary this off-season, as well. I think the Bills will do their thing, and the Steelers will have to keep pace, so their offense may look a lot like 2020’s - although they will try to run with Najee Harris in a tough matchup with the Bills.
Minnesota Vikings at Cincinnati Bengals
- Players I like more than usual: Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, Kirk Cousins
- Players I’m neutral on: Joe Mixon, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd
- Players I like less than usual: Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Tyler Conklin
- Longshot Plays: None
Notes: The Vikings OL has been a mess but it probably won’t matter with the matchup being so good. Dalvin Cook should slice through the Bengals to assist Kirk Cousins in dicing them in the passing game. It’s tough to pick the better play between Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson, but I’m feeling a big Jefferson game. The Vikings won’t have LB Anthony Barr, which helps Joe Burrow a little, but the Viking secondary looks very good right now and their pass rush should be good, so it could be a tough go for Joe. I think it’s fair to be skeptical of Ja’Marr Chase for Week 1. All the more reason to feed Joe Mixon as much as possible, at least.
San Francisco 49ers at Detroit Lions
Players I like more than usual: Raheem Mostert, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk
Players I’m neutral on: George Kittle, D’Andre Swift, Jamaal Williams, TJ Hockenson Jared Goff
Players I like less than usual: Tyrell Williams
Longshot Plays: Jimmy Garoppolo, Trey Sermon
Notes: You know the 49ers are going to go in here and do whatever they want on offense, so it’s a question of how much can the Lions do to keep pace? I’d guess not much, especially with LT Taylor Decker out. But their key guys can do well in 2-3 quarters of football where they are actually trying. George Kittle may not go off with the LIons actually decent in coverage, so I like the WRs and their RBs. The real question is Trey Sermon and his role. I don’t think you can truly count on him, but if you need some upside, he definitely has it.
Arizona Cardinals at Tennessee Titans
Players I like more than usual: DeAndre Hopkins, Kyler Murray, Ryan Tannehill, Julio Jones, Chase Edmunds
Players I’m neutral on: Derrick Henry, Rondale Moorem Anthony Firsker
Players I like less than usual: James Conner
Longshot Plays: AJ Green
Notes: We’re all expecting a lot of points in this one, and I do as well, so look to both passing games in this one and Chase Edmunds to do work in the passing game. The Titans are feeling good about their OL, which helps confidence in Derrick Henry. I am worried about Henry, but the Titans should be able to keep the game close for Henry.
Seattle Seahawks at Indianapolis Colts
Players I like more than usual: DK Metcalf,
Players I’m neutral on: Chris Carson, Russell Wilson, Tyler Lockett, Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman, Parris Campbell
Players I like less than usual: Carson Wentz, Nyheim Hines
Longshot Plays: Gerald Everrett
Notes: The big news is CB Xavier Rhodes being out, huge for DK Metcalf. It’s not a great matchup otherwise, so I’m mostly neutral on the Seahawks, and also the Colts. I do like Gerald Everett’s chances of doing well in this game. There’s a lot of unknown with Carson Wentz, but my expectation is that he’ll be decent enough at worst. He picked up where he left off well in practice once he returned a couple weeks ago. They will not have their expected starting LT, though. I do like Jonathan Taylor to show very well, but I don’t think Michael Pittman is a must-play, but they are excited about him as their #1, and the vibes are good on Parris Campbell, despite him being on the injury report.
Los Angeles Chargers at Washington Football Team
Players I like more than usual: Logan Thomas, Terry McLaurin
Players I’m neutral on: Antonio Gibson, Keenan Allen
Players I like less than usual: Justin Herbert, Austin Eckler, JD McKissicic
Longshot Plays: Ryan Fitzpatick, Mike Williams.
Notes: The big injury was Curtis Samuel this week for the FT, and with him out it’s very good news for Logan Thomas, Terry McLaurin. Antonio Gibson will likely get 20 opportunities, so I’m high on him for DFS, and expect a nice day. I’m very concerned about the matchup for Justin Herbert, who I think you can bench possibly, but it does look like Austin Eckler is a go and a full go. I’m not feeling much from Mike Williams against this nasty front that won’t likely give Herbert much time to throw.
New York Jets at Carolina Panthers
Players I like more than usual: Elijah Moore, Corey Davis, DJ Moore
Players I’m neutral on: Jets RBs, Christian McCaffrey, Robby Anderson
Players I like less than usual:
Longshot Plays: Zack Wilson, Tyler Kroft, Sam Darnold, Terrace Marshall
Notes: It’s a good matchup for both offenses, so I’m optimistic. Really have a strong feeling that Elijah Moore will ball out, especially if Keelan Cole is ruled out. Things are looking good for Corey Davis and even Tyler Kroft, so I think it’ll be a successful debut for their offense. It’s also a nice matchup for Sam Darnold and the Panthers. DJ Moore is looking a little better than Robby Anderson.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans
Players I like more than usual: James Robinson, Marvin Jones
Players I’m neutral on: Brandin Cooks, Tyrod Taylor, Phillip Lindsay
Players I like less than usual: DJ Chark, David Johnson
Longshot Plays: Trevor Lawrence, Carlos Hyde
Notes: I think you have to start James Robinson with confidence with such a good matchup, and Marvin Jones looks like a great play. You really can’t use DJ Chark with any confidence. Carlos Hyde will be a factor, but I think Robinson gets 60% of the snaps and touches, or more. The Texans have basically Brandin Cooks as a viable option, maybe Tyrod Taylor in a 2-QB league.
Denver Broncos at New York Giants
Players I like more than usual: Jerry Juedy, Sterling Shepard
Players I’m neutral on: Courtland Sutton, Teddy Bridgewater, Noah Fant, Daniel Jones
Players I like less than usual: Melvin Gordon, Kenny Golladay
Longshot Plays: Javonte Williams
Notes: Not a good game for fantasy, most likely. I do think Jerry Jeudy gets the better matchup in this one away from James Bradberry. My gut feeling is Javonte Williams may do something special in his debut, but it’s a tougher matchup so it’s not a lock he gets it done. As usual, Daniel Jones should lean on his guy Sterling Shepard, especially with poor timing with Kenny Golladay and Evan Engram out. As for Saquon Barkley, hey, good luck. You can see we have him projected for 16 touches, which is probably about right.
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots
Players I like more than usual: Jonnu Smith, Damien Harris,
Players I’m neutral on: Tua Tagovailoa, DeVante Parker, Jalen Waddle, Myles Gaskin
Players I like less than usual: Nelson Agholor, Hunter Henry,
Longshot Plays: Mac Jones
Notes: I think Mac Jones can have a nice game here, but it’s a tough matchup, so lots of running with Damien Harris and some short throws to Jonnu is what I expect. It’s a tougher matchup for Tua Tagovailoa, and their OL has some issues, so I’m not taking a strong stand on anyone for Miami.
Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints
Players I like more than usual: Marquez Calloway, Aaron Jones,
Players I’m neutral on: Alvin Kamara, Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams, Robert Tonyan
Players I like less than usual: Jameis Winston, Adam Troutman
Longshot Plays: AJ Dillon, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Juwan Johnson
Notes: The Packers have a good secondary, so the Saints will need a big day from Alvin Kamara on the ground, and he may get more carries than usual given their RB situation. Marquez Calloway won’t see stud CB Jaire Alexander on every route, so he should be more than fine with 8-10 targets. Davante Adams will see a lot of Marshawn Lattimore, but he was just added to the injury report, and Aaron Rodgers has enough to do well without a huge game from Adams.
Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs
Players I like more than usual: Baker Mayfield, Nick Chubb, Jarvis Landry
Players I’m neutral on: Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Kareem Hunt
Players I like less than usual: Odell Beckham
Longshot Plays: Austin Hooper, Donovan Peoples-Jones
Notes: I like the Browns here, maybe even to win the game. The Browns defense is looking good, so it might be a little underwhelming for KC with a revamped OL. I’d avoid using KC players in anything but season-long. Odell Beckham is questionable, so I like Baker to get the ball to Jarvis Landry and Austin Hooper.
Chicago Bears at Los Angeles Rams
Players I like more than usual: Matthew Stafford
Players I’m neutral on: Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, Tyler Higbee, Allen Robinson,
Players I like less than usual: Darrell Henderson, David Montgomery
Longshot Plays: Darnell Mooney, Cole Kmet
Notes: I’m not assuming Jalen Ramsey will be on Allen Robinson, but that could happen with a new staff. But Ramsey didn’t travel much last year. It probably bodes well for Darnell Mooney and maybe even Cole Kmet, since the Bears will likely be playing from behind. The Bears secondary is vulnerable, so I think Matthew Stafford comes out slinging it with a lot of success.
Baltimore Ravens at Las Vegas Raiders
Players I like more than usual: Mark Andrews, Marquise Brown, Lamar Jackson
Players I’m neutral on: Darren Waller, Derek Carr
Players I like less than usual: Ty’Son Williams, Bryan Edwards, Henry Ruggs
Notes: I’d avoid the Ravens running game if possible, but Williams has to be the play over Latavius Murray, who should play. I’m not feeling the Raiders outside WRs in this one, so lots of Darren Waller in a Waller revenge game. I love the Ravens passing game with such a good matchup, though.
