NFL Films/ESPN legend — and one of the best talent evaluators in the business — Greg Cosell has gone through a metric ton of 2020 tape to provide insights on some interesting players headed into the 2021 NFL season. Here, he brings you his raw notes and observations from those tape sessions.
It’s a chance to get inside the mind of one of the greats of the industry.
Today’s focus will be on the Raiders’ passing game, with a specific eye to QB Derek Carr and TE Darren Waller.
DEREK CARR TRAITS
(FULL GAMES WATCHED: SAINTS, PATRIOTS, BILLS, CHIEFS X2, DOLPHINS)
Carr has always had a tendency to be a little loose and undisciplined with his footwork in the pocket, not setting and planting with a firm base and good balance. His feet are too often unsettled, and that results in too many arm throws without needed balance and weight transfer.
Carr, at times, showed a tendency to speed up his mechanics and play fast in the pocket when he perceived and felt pass-rush pressure.
Carr still shows a tendency to be a little cautious in the pocket, taking checkdowns rather than turning it loose at the intermediate and deeper levels on throws that are there.
Carr is very much a clean-pocket passer. When he feels comfortable in the pocket his base is firm and he delivers with good balance. Carr is a twitchy thrower with a quick, compact delivery. Overall he is an excellent thrower of the football: plus arm, can throw with pace and touch, ball location generally consistent.
Carr is not at his best as a late-in-the-down passer. He tends to break down with his footwork and balance and speed up his overall process when the pocket gets noisy.
Two areas of concern watching Carr’s tape: 1) his ability to recognize, eliminate, and isolate the right throw can be inconsistent 2.) his pocket toughness is not always what you want it to be.
My sense watching Carr was that he was not a refined zone-window anticipator. There were throws to be made at the intermediate levels that demanded leading his receiver into an open zone window, and Carr often did not turn it loose. I felt there were throws he left on the field.
One of my main takeaways watching Carr was that he had issues at times with the needed elimination and isolation processing. My sense was he left too many throws on the field.
DEREK CARR ALL 12+-YARD THIRD-DOWN COMPLETIONS
WR Zay Jones 15-yard TD on 3rd-and-9 versus the Saints came on a hi-low boundary concept versus disguised late movement cover 2/ The Raiders anticipated red zone 2/4 because they ran the “smash” concept on both sides of the formation, and smash is a zone beater concept creating a vertical stretch on the flat defender in cover 2.
Coach Jon Gruden did a good job with defined zon- beater route concepts on 3rd-and-long versus defenses (like the Bills) that were high percentage zone coverage in those situations — Jones 16 yards on 3rd-and-11 versus Bills a great example: three-man route combination featuring dagger with hi-low concept.
The Chiefs and DC Steve Spagnuolo are among the best in the NFL with disguised late movement to cover 2 out of sub dime. S Tyrann Mathieu is almost always the middle hole defender.
Carr is very comfortable working one-on-ones versus man coverage. Gruden did a good job with zone-beater route concepts to one side of the formation and man beater routes to the other side of the formation. Waller’s 23-yarder on 3rd-and-4 versus the Chiefs in Week 5 is a good example.
One route concept the Raiders featured versus man coverage was the whip route, often off “zin” motion with a natural rub element: WR Henry Ruggs’ 29-yarder on 3rd-and-4 versus the Bucs was a good example. It came out of 13 personnel with Waller the boundary X versus Bucs base defense.
The Raiders also featured pivot or smash routes versus man coverage, at times out of tight bunch (staple concept they ran numerous times with WR Hunter Renfrow): Examples include Renfrow’s 25 yards on 3rd-and-5 versus Broncos Week 10, Renfrow’s 17 yards on 3rd-and-6 versus Jets. It’s a good man beater concept – Waller’s 24 yards on 3rd + 7 versus Broncos later in the same game as Renfrow’s catch was the same route combination out of the same tight bunch formation, but Waller ran the seam rather than the crosser since it was split safety zone and not man-to-man.
Reduced splits with stack formations in 2x2 sets and tight bunch in 3x1 sets were a featured part of the Raiders’ 3rd-down play concepts. Hi-low concepts were featured and were effective versus zone coverage.
Waller’s 28-yard TD on 3rd-and-2 versus the Broncos in Week 17 came out of tight bunch with Waller the point man. The running back shift from empty into the backfield confirmed man coverage — Carr knew before the snap he had the fade to Waller versus the safety.
THE RAIDER PASS GAME DESIGN
- Two things stood out with the Raiders passing game: Darren Waller lined up in multiple locations, including boundary X, and Bryan Edwards was predominantly the boundary X on the back side of trips.
- Another thing that stood out watching the Raiders pass game was their use of mirrored route concepts out of 2x2 sets.
- Jon Gruden presents to a defense a good mix of personnel groupings and formations, also featuring shifts and motions. Gruden features a good percentage of 12 and 13 personnel – a key Gruden principle is “the illusion of complexity.”
- Waller provides Gruden with the flexibility to be formation diverse out of 12 and 13 personnel with his ability to detach from the formation and run routes versus safeties and corners.
- Edwards could be an ascending player in his second season in 2021. He predominantly was the X receiver, and he possesses all the physical traits needed to be effective at that position.
- What was interesting watching the Raider pass game was how many third-down snaps Waller stayed in to pass protect. That surprised me given how good a receiver he is and the matchup problems he creates – Gruden clearly felt he needed an extra body in pass protection.
- The Raiders had an excellent feel for attacking the Chiefs defense, both pressures and coverages, in the Week 5 matchup with their personnel groupings and their formations.
- What was interesting watching the two Chiefs games was how Gruden and the staff felt they could attack the Kansas City defense with deeper intermediate and vertical route concepts.
- What consistently stood out was how much base personnel groupings the Raiders featured: 12, 13, 21 and 22 personnel. Fullback Alec Ingold got meaningful snaps (he played more than 21% of the offensive snaps).
- Raiders featured shifts and motions and reduced splits — Gruden has always believed in a lot of diversity with personnel, movement and formations. Empty sets are a meaningful part of the Raiders offense.
- The Raiders are effective with the “bang” play-action pass game. They featured reduced-split WRs running in-breaking routes versus outside leverage corners.
DARREN WALLER – ALL 15+ YARD RECEPTIONS
The Raiders featured Waller as a matchup piece: Carr went to him when it was man coverage, and by design through personnel and formation, they looked to dictate one-on-one matchups for Waller. Waller has the speed to run away from man coverage, even cornerbacks, at times.
The way many measure TEs in today’s NFL is if they have the ability to line up as the boundary X on the back side of trips. Waller can do that, and he can win versus corners.
Waller made big receptions when he was aligned at boundary X or #1 to the strong side of the formation. He showed the speed to run by corners and the body control and hands to make back-shoulder catches versus safeties.
Waller has the speed to run away from man coverage on crossing routes (both shallow and intermediate crossers), and he did that versus corners and safeties. Waller is a difficult matchup for safeties with his size/speed/movement traits.
Waller was effective working out of tight bunch sets. He aligned at all three locations in the bunch, with a tendency to work vertically – the 28-yard TD versus Broncos referenced earlier is an excellent example.
Waller ran angle routes from flexed TE alignments. He would get into the void in zone coverage and expand the defender with his angled route stem versus man coverage.
Waller’s 35-yard TD versus Chargers came out of 13 personnel and a 1x3 set with Waller in a plus split as the boundary X. Corner Mike Davis matched Waller man-to-man in press position — Waller used physicality to release to the outside then got on top of Davis with his speed. (Marcus Mariota was at QB for this play.)
Waller is a weapon at all three levels of the defense. He is at his best at the short and intermediate levels catching the ball on the move, where he can transition from receiver to runner and use his size and speed run-after-catch.
Waller showed outstanding body control and hands to make contested catches on vertical routes.
