Welcome to the IDP Weekend Preview. Each week we’ll take a close look at each matchup based on a number of factors, such as roles, where offenses are giving up FP, snap counts, and tackle crews.
NYG @ Was
This Giants D-line continues putting up stellar tackle numbers, with Leonard Williams (4 tackles, 1 sack, and 2 TFL in Week 8) leading the way. Even though the team likes Devante Downs and David Mayo, the only LB who is productive remains Blake Martinez. Jabrill Peppers now has 22 tackles and 2 sacks in his last three games. He's also returning the occasional punt, which can help in return-yardage leagues. After being a 7-9 tackle guy for much of the season, Logan Ryan has just 5 and 3 tackles over his last two games. It could just be a bump in the road, or it could be that Peppers is now in a better position to soak up production.
Chase Young had another 6 tackles on 82% usage in Week 7 before his bye. He's fun to watch. And fun to have in your lineups. This is certainly a good matchup for Young et al. Don’t worry about this crew’s low output in their last game. Normally this Washington D-line loads up on tackles, but not much was sent their way. No DL in the middle had more than 2 tackles in Week 7. Before Jon Bostic was ejected for his hit on Andy Dalton, he had his usual 6 tackles (on 79%). Landon Collins was off to another strong start (4 tackles and a sack) before tearing his Achilles. Deshazor Everett took over for Collins, while Kameron Curl moved into the free safety spot. Everett's value will certainly see a boost now. Troy Apke (2%) is getting phased out of this defense. He hadn't been playing well.
Chi @ Ten
We could see a bump in production in this game for Chicago. The Bears IDPs get to play in front of a top-5 tackle crew in Nashville this week. Big games in Week 8 from ILBs Roquan Smith (100% - 11 tackles) and Danny Trevathan (77% - 9 tackles). Tennessee’s outside zone run scheme leaks production to the sidelines. Can Smith and Trevathan navigate traffic to get out there enough to put up enough tackles? Eddie Jackson has picked up his tackles lately (as well as big plays). His high tackle floor has helped us as much as his big-play upside.
Jeffery Simmons has between 3-6 tackles in each game, but we're starting to see his big plays come on. He has 2 sacks and 9 QB hits in his last four games. After a mediocre start to the season, Jayon Brown now has 30 tackles in his last three games. Malcolm Butler has 8 tackles in each of the last three games, and now has at least 7 tackles in five of his last six games. Desmond King was signed to presumably be their new nickel DB, a role he could excel in. He’s not eligible to play this week, though. Johnathan Joseph was released after his 9-tackle game in Week 8. Jadeveon Clowney is Questionable with a knee injury. Harold Landry III is the EDGE you want on this team.
Det @ Min
The Lions added Everson Griffen and placed Trey Flowers on short-term IR, which is good news for Romeo Okwara, who has been dealing lately. He has 5 sacks and 15 tackles in his last five games. Danny Shelton has at least 5 tackles in four of his last six games. If the Vikings go run-heavy (why wouldn’t they?), Shelton could have another solid game. I get why the Lions tried to limit Tracy Walker's usage as a deep safety due to his coverage deficiencies, but we really have Aaron Jones to thank for showing them (and the rest of the world) why leaving Walker on the bench is not wise. He's a tackling machine, and we saw that in Week 8 with his 11 tackles on 100% usage. Walker is Out this week, though, leaving Duron Harmon and Will Harris to fend for themselves.
In their first game without Yannick Ngakoue, DEs Ifeadi Odenigbo (79% - 4 assists) and Jalyn Holmes (83% - 4 tackles) saw a bump in usage. This is a good sign for Odenigbo to hang onto his DL3 value. Eric Wilson (100% - 4 tackles and a fumble recovery) had a decent game, while Eric Kendricks (100% - 12 tackles) had his typical #1 LB game. Harrison Smith had a solid game, with 8 tackles (5 solo) and a PD. It's the first game of more than 3 tackles since Week 3. This is likely an outlier, but man it would be nice to see Smith regain his fantasy relevance.
Car @ KC
With 70 snaps possible in Week 8, Shaq Thompson only managed 6 tackles. He's alternated between double-digit tackles and about 5-6 tackles each game. My pre-season reluctance to crown Thompson as an LB1 seems founded, which I'm not happy about. I would much rather be wrong and Thompson be a star for us. Although I wouldn't expect to get the 28 rushing yards he got on a fake punt in Week 8 from Jeremy Chinn, it sure is nice to see him being used literally all over the place. He's a top-5 DB and that's not going away. Chinn (Questionable) is dealing with a knee issue, though. Ever since Juston Burris went down, Tre Boston's numbers have picked up. Boston has 23 tackles over his last three games. Burris is on IR for at least another week.
Here's a name to keep an eye on: DT Tershawn Wharton. His snaps and production have grown over the last three weeks, and in Week 8 he had 4 tackles and a sack on 57% usage. Frank Clark (Questionable) is nursing a sore knee. The only LB I want out of this bunch is Damien Wilson (63% - 7 tackles). Anthony Hitchens is playing similar snap counts but not producing as much. And rookie Willie Gay, Jr. keeps yo-yoing in usage. Daniel Sorensen has been a beast lately. This KC defense is starting to click with him cleaning up behind those shaky LBs. Even with Sorensen's production surge, Tyrann Mathieu is staying solidly productive. He has at least 5 tackles in all but two games and has 2 INTs, a fumble recovery, and a TD as well.
Hou @ Jax
While the Packers O-line has been stingy for DL sacks, J.J. Watt still got it done with 5 tackles and 2 TFL. In the two games since Bill O'Brien was fired, Watt has 9 tackles, 1 sack, 4 TFL, 1 PF, and 1 FF. (28 FP). In the 5 previous games, Watt had 15 tackles, 2 TFL, 2 sacks, 2 PD, and 1 FR (36 FP). Watt’s matchup this week is delicious. He gets the honor of welcoming rookie QB Jake Luton to the league. Tyrell Adams and Zach Cunningham each had 11 tackles in Week 7. Keep riding these LBs after their bye. Houston's DBs were under attack all day by Aaron Rodgers (which is an IDP staple - "start your DBs against Rodgers.") They accounted for 23 of the team's tackles, but this isn't just a Rodgers thing. Houston's DBs normally post 4-7 tackles each. That's good for having several DB3 options on Houston but bad for having any DB1 options.
Myles Jack is back this week. As a reminder, he was an LB1 before his injury and has a highly-productive role in this defense. K'Lavon Chaisson was expected to deal with the typical rookie DL/EDGE inconsistency, but he has really struggled to produce. The talented rookie still has plenty of time to blossom, so consider him a dynasty stash for now. He's reportedly been putting in the work and soaking up info, so now is a great time to buy him in dynasty leagues that favor EDGE rushers. Josh Jones had another DB1 game in Week 7, with 8 tackles (6 solo). Rookie corner C.J. Henderson had a big game, with 8 tackles (5 solo). He's got 14 tackles in the two games since returning from his shoulder injury.
Bal @ Ind
*As of this writing, the expectation is that the Ravens IDPs on the COVID list will be removed sometime today. That said, watch that news carefully.
Yannick Ngakoue (64%) had just 1 solo in his Ravens debut. He may shave off the ceiling of Calais Campbell and Derek Wolfe while being highly big-play dependent. He'll get his sacks, but maybe not much else. This is the player and the role we should expect from Patrick Queen: some weeks it's 9-10 tackles, while other weeks are just 3-4 tackles. He has just 6 tackles over his last 2 games, but he finally did play 100% for the first time in Week 8. After living in the 6-9 tackle range for the first 6 weeks, Chuck Clark has 5 total tackles over his last two games. Color me a tad concerned that they've shifted his role a bit. We should see raised production from both the Colts and the Ravens IDPs. The Colts D is facing a prolific offense (that hasn't happened often this season), and the Ravens are playing in front of a stat crew that awards the most solo tackles in the league.
We should see rebound games from DeForest Buckner and Justin Houston, who had just 1 tackle each in Week 8. Baltimore gives up tackles and sacks aplenty to DLs. Yep: Darius Leonard is still really good at football. I know it's been frustrating waiting for him to be fully healthy, but he now has at least 9 tackles in three of his last four healthy games. I'd like to see him get into that 12-14 tackle range again soon, though. Are we seeing something brewing in Indy? Khari Willis now has 17 tackles (15 solo) in his last two games. He had a total of 17 over his last four games combined before that.
Sea @ Buf
I think Carlos Dunlap is going to be a great fit as the LEO rusher for Pete Carroll. His fantasy value could be resurrected. Alton Robinson had been productive in that role lately. I'm not sure how much Damon Harrison will give us, but keep in mind that "Snacks" was a tackle machine for several years. Bobby Wagner saw his fantasy value fall some with a slow start to his season. That said, he had some terrible stat crews to work with, and things should look much better this week in front of Buffalo's generous stat crew. While Ryan Neal played admirably in his stead, Jamal Adams will be back this week. Adams hasn't played since Week 3, so he might not play every snap, but you should start him anyway. He had 21 tackles and 2 sacks in his first two games before his groin injury. Neal could see playing time as a third safety, as Ugo Amadi is Out this week. It's a good week for tackles for these Seahawks. They normally play in front of a stat crew that splits tackles evenly between solos and assists, but Buffalo's crew gives out a ton of tackles, and they lean considerably toward solos.
I mentioned Jerry Hughes' peripheral numbers indicated he was close to a breakout. Well, the breakout is here. He's had 9 tackles and 3 sacks in two weeks. Jordan Poyer will finish in the top-5 in DB tackles, if not lead all DBs. He's having the best season of his young and talented career, and has his top-5 tackle crew to give him a boost. With Poyer soaking up tons of tackles, we're seeing games of just 5-6 tackles from Tremaine Edmunds at times, in between his 8-12 tackle games. That volatility makes Edmunds more of an LB2. Matt Milano (Out - pectoral) will miss another game. Look for A.J. Klein to struggle yet again in his place. That’s yet another reason why Poyer has been so productive: clean-up duty. Micah Hyde (no injury designation) is good to go this week.
Den @ Atl
Shelby Harris (59%) had another good game (6 tackles and 1.5 TFL) in Week 8. Keep firing him up in your lineups. Malik Reed just continues to show why he deserves heavy snaps as an edge rusher across from Bradley Chubb. He started and played over Jeremiah Attaochu (23%) and now has 5 sacks in his last three games. Alexander Johnson is a weekly 8-10 tackle guy. He's well past his 3-tackle game back in Week 3. Just don't expect many of those tackles to be solo this week. Atlanta's tackle crew clearly hates solo tackles. If you're wondering where all Justin Simmons' (100% - 5 tackles, 1 INT) tackles went in Week 8, they went to fellow safety Kareem Jackson (99% - 12 tackles). Simmons did fine with a high tackle floor and that INT, but I'm expecting Simmons to get back to his 6-8 tackle ways going forward.
After just missing on some productive weeks lately, Grady Jarrett finally came through for us in Week 8: 5 tackles (through 1 solo) and a TFL. Both Takk McKinley (groin) and Dante Fowler, Jr. (hamstring) are Out this week. LBs Deion Jones (6 tackles and a sack), and Foyesade Oluokun (5 tackles and a TFL) are both producing at solid LB2 clips, and I don't foresee that changing. It's not likely one all of a sudden produces weekly double-digit tackle outings, but I'll take 6-8 tackles each week with some big plays. Rookie CB A.J. Terrell has been a steady 4-6 tackle option all season. Keanu Neal has at least 6 tackles in every full game this season, and has added 5 big plays in the last two games.
LV @ LAC
After some strong showings lately, the Raiders DLs came up short in Week 8. Only Johnathan Hankins (4 tackles) had more than 2 tackles, and no one got a sack. But there were just 49 snaps recorded for the defense, which means we didn't see much production. Both Arden Key (foot) and Maurice Hurst (ankle) are Out this week. Nick Kwiatkoski (98%) got back to a nearly-every snap count, and both he and Cory Littleton (100%) tallied 5 tackles with a low overall snap count. I'm afraid Johnathan Abram has settled into a 4-5 tackle guy. We had higher hopes for him, but it's just not happening yet. After his Week 1 explosion of 13 tackles, he's yet to post more than 5 in a game.
Joey Bosa (concussion) is Doubtful this week. Over the last four weeks, Kyzir White's usage has dipped: 100%, 97%, 81%, 57%. After averaging 12 tackles per game in Weeks 3-6, he now has just 12 total over his last two games. White has been exposed in coverage, so this is likely the reason why. Jahleel Addae (42%) replaced White in passing situations, and had 3 solos. This might be what the Chargers do going forward - use him in coverage as a sub for White. Addae (Hamstring) is Questionable this week, however, so White might see a bump back up in usage. Rayshawn Jenkins now has 24 tackles (20 solo) and an INT in his last three games. He also has at least 7 tackles in four of his last five games.
Pit @ Dal
Stephon Tuitt has been flying under the radar as a DL1. He had another 9 tackles and 2 sacks in Week 8. Cameron Heyward also had 5 tackles as he dealt with cramping and a quad injury. Both should see an uptick in usage/production as Tyson Alualu is Out (knee). Robert Spillane racked up 11 tackles in Week 8, but now has Avery Williamson to contend with. Chances are Spillane will keep his gig for the next few weeks, since he runs the defense. It will take Willamson a few weeks to get the hang of this new scheme. The Steelers are traveling from a top-5 tackle crew to a bottom-5 tackle crew. This could cost your IDP 2-5 tackles and in general, they will see fewer solo tackles. Terrell Edmunds has played his same role, but has fallen off the production map lately. He hasn't surpassed 2 tackles in his last three games. Minkah Fitzpatrick - on the other hand - has seen a bump in tackle production lately. He has 12 tackles in his last two games. Mike Hilton (Doubtful) is likely still a week away from returning.
Demarcus Lawrence has been on fire lately. With Everson Griffen now gone, his snaps have risen. Last week he had 6 tackles and a strip-sack. What a boost he could give us if he can keep this up. Aldon Smith (63%) had a nice bounceback game, with 3 tackles and a sack. He’s Questionable (knee) this week. It was also nice to see Randy Gregory (49%) wrap up 4 solos and a QB hit in his debut. Gregory’s usage will see a bump if Smith can’t go. Leighton Vander Esch (94%) had a disappointing 2-tackle effort in Week 8, but he did add a sack and a forced fumble, which saved those who started him. Hopefully, we'll see him bounceback this week. He did post double-digit tackles the week prior. The Donovan Wilson rollercoaster continues. He played 92% last week and had 5 solos and 1 sack, plus a forced fumble. It would be nice to see him settle into a consistent role.
Mia @ Ari
Emmanuel Ogbah (73%) had another sack in Week 8, and now has at least 0.5 sacks in six straight games, with 6 total over that span. Christian Wilkins started the season with 9 tackles over his first two games, but then cooled off. But he has 10 tackles over the last two games. Jerome Baker had 13 tackles, which is about 5-6 more than his norm. The Dolphins D played 95 snaps, so it's hard to trust only his second double-digit tackle game all season…and that other game was in Week 1. With the Rams getting punched in the mouth, there was suddenly tons of passing action. Eric Rowe (7 tackles), Xavien Howard (7 tackles), and Nik Needham (10 tackles) loaded up on tackles. Needham continues to be a sneaky play as the nickel DB in between two elite outside CBs. Arizona’s stat crew awards more solos than Miami’s stat crew.
Zach Allen and Jordan Phillips were injured before their bye. Phillips (hamstring) is Questionable this week. Haason Reddick continues to blossom in Chandler Jones' absence. He racked up 11 tackles (5 solo), 1 sack, and 3 TFL. Budda Baker is on fire. He's the clear #1 DB now, and that's even with D.K. Metcalf catching him to prevent his 90+ yard pick-six. It will be nice to get Jordan Hicks and De’Vondre Campbell back in our lineups after their bye. Both have been productive for us.
NO @ TB
Marcus Davenport (64%) is coming on now that he's fully healed from his shoulder injury. He had 4 tackles and 0.5 sacks in Week 8. Demario Davis is another one of these LBs who can be heavily affected by the matchup. After producing 10 tackles in a strong matchup in Week 5, he has just 2 and 4 tackles over the last two weeks. The team traded for Kwon Alexander, but not only will he not play this week, he’s not much of a threat to Davis’ production. Week 8 was a huge game for the New Orleans DBs. Malcolm Jenkins (8 tackles), Marshon Lattimore (8 tackles), and C.J. Gardner-Johnson (9 tackles) had huge games, and even Janoris Jenkins, P.J. Williams, and Marcus Williams had 4 tackles each.
Ndamukong Suh now has 4 sacks on the year. He's seen an uptick in his big-play scoring this season. Both Devin White (7 tackles) and Lavonte David (5 tackles) had slightly lowered production due to the heavy passing game of the Giants in Week 8. Antoine Winfield Jr. has at least 5 tackles in six of his eight games, while adding 4 PD, 1 sack, and 1 INT. Between a strong offense and their generous stat crew, I’m expecting lots of IDP tackle production for Tampa Bay.
NE @ NYJ
Deatrich Wise Jr. and John Simon have been reliable DLs so far, with around 3-5 tackles each game. Fellow DL Lawrence Guy (shoulder) and starting MLB Ja’Whaun Bentley (groin) are dealing with injuries heading into this matchup. If Bentley can’t go, Josh Uche and Anfernee Jennings could see elevated roles. It’s most likely going to help Adrian Phillips’ value though, considering how much he plays in the box. In Week 8, New England used 10 DBs to record 29 tackles. None of them had more than 6 tackles, and no other Patriot IDP had more than 5. With the anemic Jets offense, there’s even less of a chance these players produce much fantasy value.
Folorunso Fatukasi had been non-existent until two weeks ago. Since then, he has 9 tackles. With Avery Williamson now in Pittsburgh, it should be Blake Cashman's time to soak up 7-10 tackles next to Neville Hewitt, but keep an eye on Patrick Onwuasor, who could come back this week. While Marcus Maye played in the box and around the line of scrimmage for the first five weeks, he's played just 12 snaps in the box over the last three games, versus 159 snaps back at free safety. This is the clear reason why Maye’s production has fallen off. However, with Bradley McDougald on IR and rookie Ashtyn Davis set to take over, things might change. Davis is best as a deep safety, so let’s see if Maye doesn’t shift back toward the line of scrimmage over the next few games. While Pierre Desir hasn't been incredibly consistent, he does have at least 7 tackles in three of his last five games.
