Welcome to the IDP Weekend Preview. Each week we’ll take a close look at each matchup based on a number of factors, such as roles, where offenses are giving up FP, snap counts, and tackle crews.
Pit @ Bal
Cam Sutton had 4 solos filling in for Mike Hilton, but he split time with Justin Layne. Hilton is Questionable this week, so this is a situation to avoid. The Steelers DBs have a double-whammy. Not only are the Ravens the stingiest team to opposing DBs, but the Steelers are going from a top-5 home stat crew to a Baltimore crew who favors the assist to the solo. Not much action up the middle for this Steelers D in Week 7. Cameron Heyward and Stephon Tuitt played their regular 85+% snap share but managed just 1 assist each. This was a product of game flow. Hopefully, they have better luck against the run-heavy Ravens. It was Vince Williams (79%) who saw the most production in Week 7 with Devin Bush out for the season. Robert Spillane (75%) managed just 3 tackles. He was out-produced by Alex Highsmith (14% - 4 tackles). At least Ulysses Gilbert is Out, who was also in the mix.
Week 6 brought us another monster game from the ageless Calais Campbell: 5 tackles, 3 sacks, and 4 TFL. The Steelers O-line is above-average, but Campbell hasn’t been slowed by many lines this season. Patrick Queen played his highest snap share of the season (88%) but managed just 2 tackles. He has one of the best matchups of the week for linebackers. The Steelers offense produces over 25 tackles per game to LBs, which is second-most. Marlon Humphrey continues to produce CB1 production. He had 8 solos, 1 sack, 1 PD, and 1 FF in Week 6.
LAR @ Mia
The good news? Michael Brockers has 14 tackles in his last three games. The bad news? Only 3 of them have been solos. That's not a typo. Aaron Donald will have rookie QB Tua Tagovailoa to chase down in his first-ever start. What a way to be welcomed to the NFL. Micah Kiser is starting to post more solid and big games than duds. With 8 tackles (though just 3 solo) in Week 7, Kiser has moved into mid-late LB2 range. He needs to avoid the early-season 4-6 tackle games to stay in that range though. The Dolphins are a below-average matchup, though. If Kiser comes through with 8-9 tackles, it’s a good sign of his LB2/LB3 stability. Troy Hill's tackle floor has risen with his transition to playing inside or outside, depending on where they move Jalen Ramsey. Essentially, QBs are throwing at Hill because he's not Ramsey. That's good news for his tackle production
Emmanuel Ogbah has been sneaky good so far. He's a top-10 DL over the season and a top-3 DL over the last four weeks. Christian Wilkins (65% - 5 tackles and a sack) had a strong game in Week 6 without Davon Godchaux (IR). Was that a fluke or a portent of things to come? Jerome Baker played every snap and posted 6 tackles (4 solo) in Week 6. This is what we expect from Baker: a 6-8 tackle LB3. Nik Needham (86% - 7 tackles) took over the slot corner role with Byron Jones back and Noah Igbinoghene (18%) to the bench.
NYJ @ KC
Quinnen Williams has quietly been a low-end DL1. He was just re-assured that he wouldn't be traded, so expect his 4 tackles and 1 TFL per game average to keep chugging along. Both Neville Hewitt and Avery Williamson remain busy and productive on this Jets D. Both LBs played virtually every snap and produced 13 tackles, and that will continue as Blake Cashman is Out. But KC has been the worst matchup for LBs in terms of tackles. Bradley McDougald is also Out, so Ashtyn Davis will get his first start in centerfield. Hopefully, this puts Marcus Maye near the action more.
Chris Jones had 3 tackles and a sack in Week 7 before exiting with a groin injury. He’s good to go for this week, though. Jones and this D-line should eat plenty this game. Damien Wilson has emerged as the leading tackler for the KC LBs. What's worth watching is the emergence of rookie Willie Gay, Jr. He saw a season-high 57% usage in Week 7. If this game is in-hand early, Gay could see a lot of 2nd-half snaps. What a Week 7 for Daniel Sorensen. He added 9 tackles (7 solo) to go with his pick-six. He's a sneaky DB2/DB3 now. He's had between 5 and 9 tackles in each game since Week 3.
Min @ GB
Ifeadi Odenigbo had 5 tackles and a sack, looking better and better each week. I'm curious to see how teams attack him now that Yannick Ngakoue is in Baltimore. Odenigbo faces the hardest QB to sack. Aaron Rodgers has been sacked just 2 times by a DL this season (though LB blitzes have gotten to him a few times). The Falcons threw it a ton in Week 6, giving CBs Cameron Dantzler (11 tackles) and Jeff Gladney (8 tackles) and safety Anthony Harris (8 tackles) a ton of production. While Harris could post those numbers often, don't expect Dantzler and Gladney to do that every week. They're more in the 3-6 tackle range. With so much activity being funneled to the DBs in Week 7, only Eric Kendricks (14 tackles) had enough action left to be productive. Eric Wilson (3 assists) was the biggest loser from the Falcons and their aerial assault. While Rodgers is going to attack this ailing secondary, eventually they will settle into a heavy run package if they get out to a lead.
Kamal Martin was impressive in his NFL debut, posting 6 solos on 43% of the snaps. Krys Barnes (40% - 8 tackles and a sack) was again highly effective before getting injured. He's practicing this week and was left off the final injury report, so he should be good to go. It was a busy Week 7 for the safeties, as Houston was behind early and threw a ton in catch-up mode. Adrian Amos (6 tackles and a sack), Raven Greene (50% - left the game early - 8 tackles, 2 PD), and Will Redmond (6 tackles) were all fantasy relevant. Expect the same this week again against Minnesota. Darnell Savage (Questionable) is practicing this week, so Redmond might head to the bench.
Ind @ Det
Both Grover Stewart and DeForest Buckner have been tackling machines lately. They have 21 tackles between (split almost evenly) over the last two games. They do have their work cut out for them this weekend, as the Lions give up the fewest tackles to DLs per game (10.2). Darius Leonard is back this week. Hopefully, he plays enough snaps to produce double-digit tackles. I'm cautiously optimistic about Khari Willis and his 10 solos in Week 6. He did have 8 tackles a few weeks ago, but just 3 tackles in the two games in between.
The Lions DLs were productive in Week 7, racking up 18 tackles as a unit. This is how this defense is set up, so if they can keep this consistency with this simplified version of their D, Trey Flowers, Danny Shelton, and Romeo Okwara could be big DL assets for us down the stretch. And we can add Everson Griffen to that unit in Week 9, but he won’t be suiting up this week. Five Lions LBs had between 2 and 6 tackles, and none of them cracked 2 solos. I'd rather start a CB over any of these. At least you'd get some PD upside. A big change in the secondary as Tracy Walker (94% - 5 tackles) and Duron Harmon (99% - 3 tackles) have been joined by Jayron Kearse (44% - 7 tackles) as the third safety in their 3-safety sets. Perhaps this post-bye week change has helped the Lions defense settle in some.
LV @ Cle
Clelin Ferrell added another 3 solos and a TFL on 53% in Week 7 and is creeping up into the DL3 range. A breakout could be coming, but he needs more snaps. With Arden Key Doubtful, Ferrell and Maxx Crosby should see a boost. The Raiders IDPs might see a dip in tackle production in front of this stingy Browns stat crew. That said, the Browns do give up a ton of tackles to DLs (though not many sacks). Cory Littleton (100% - 8 tackles) again held onto the every-down role, with Nick Kwiatkoski (75% - 7 tackles) playing enough to stay relevant. There's no clear winner here, just two LB3s. With Johnathan Abram out (COVID/reserve list), Erik Harris has been more productive. Abram has cleared COVID protocol and should return this week. Both have a terrible matchup, as the Browns produce just 22 tackles per game to DBs.
This Browns D-line trio continues to be productive and dominant. Myles Garrett had 3 solos, 2 sacks, 2 TFL, and 1 forced fumble, Sheldon Richardson had 7 tackles, 2 QB hits, and a sack, and Larry Ogunjobi had 4 tackles. Garrett was limited in practice this week (ankle) but was left off the final injury report and declared himself “good to go.” With so much production going to the DBs and DLs, B.J. Goodson managing 7 tackles (5 solo) means that he has a pretty solid floor. Malcolm Smith (59% - 5 tackles) and Mack Wilson (41% - 4 tackles) are splitting time and production next to Goodson. Neither is usable for fantasy. With the Bengals throwing so much - Joe Burrow has thrown more passes than any other QB this season - the Browns DBs soaked up most of the production. The Raiders certainly won’t throw that much. With Karl Joseph still out, Ronnie Harrison, Jr. (84%) started over Sheldrick Redwine (17%) and posted 9 tackles (6 solo), 1 sack, 1 FR, and 1 PD.
Ten @ Cin
Week 7 was Jadeveon Clowney's best game of the season: 4 tackles (3 solo), 1 TFL, 1 PD, and 1 FF. He needs many more of these to be useful for fantasy. Clowney, Jeffery Simmons, and this D-line have a great matchup. Cincy is the #1 option for DL production, including surrendering 2.5 sacks per game. Malcolm Butler has at least 7 tackles in each of his last three games. He's really picked up his production lately. The Bengals produce over 31 tackles to DBs. Slot corner Kristian Fulton is Out. Jayon Brown (8 tackles and 1 INT) has been a serviceable backend LB2, but I think he's still underachieving a bit. He could/should be a mid-LB2. The Titans are going from a top-5 home stat crew to one of the worst crews in awarding solos.
This Cincy D-line rotation and usage is a hot mess. Between injuries and ineffectiveness, this is a situation to avoid until further notice. Even with Carlos Dunlap (just 12 snaps in his final game as a Bengal) shipped off to Seattle, there’s likely not much production here, particularly against the stingy Tennessee O-line. I'll update this each week since there's at least some fantasy production here: Josh Bynes (73% - 7 tackles) and Germaine Pratt (73% - 6 tackles) continue to lead the LBs here and continue to post solid LB4 production. Another 8 tackles for Vonn Bell in Week 7, but another assist-heavy card. Only 3 of his 8 tackles were solos. This is his home stat crew's fault, and he's playing at home again this week. Still, Bell continues to post high total tackle numbers.
NE @ Buf
Usage for Anfernee Jennings over his last four games: 0%, 25%, 40%, 80%. Jennings had 6 tackles last week. He could be another 4-6 tackle option here in New England. Adrian Phillips (83% - 7 tackles) has seen an uptick in snaps with Kyle Dugger (Questionable) sidelined. Can he keep this up when Dugger returns? I think so. Phillips and Devin McCourty will be busy this week against Josh Allen. Lawrence Guy (Questionable) and this D-line have a poor matchup this week. The Bills produce just 6 solos per game to DLs.
Jerry Hughes (Questionable) finally came through in Week 7: 6 tackles (1 solo), 2 sacks, with an INT, PD, FF, TFL, and 2 QB hits. Hughes has been playing well. Tons of pressures, just not translating to production. This D-line is starting to click, including Mario Addison and Ed Oliver. Matt Milano (Questionable) was active after missing a few weeks with a pectoral injury, but they eased him back in with just a 33% snap share. Hopefully, this week is a full snap share for him. Taron Johnson (84%) remains the primary slot option, but they do use Dean Marlowe (21%) in Big Nickel at times, including in Week 7. The Bills rotated a ton of DBs in Week 7. That's not usually Sean McDermott's M.O. Jordan Poyer, Micah Hyde (Questionable), and Tre'Davious White were still every-down players, though. If Hyde (Concussion) doesn’t get cleared, look for Siran Neal to step in. The Bills are playing at home in front of their top-5 stat crew.
LAC @ Den
Joey Bosa appears healthy again, posting 3 tackles, 1.5 TFL, and 0.5 sacks on 75% usage. Linval Joseph has 12 tackles and 1.5 TFL in his last three games. The Broncos are a bottom-5 option for DLs, however. Melvin Ingram III did play 68% in his first game back, but managed just 2 QB hits. He should be getting back to full speed this week. With Ingram back, Uchenna Nwosu played just 33%, but still racked up 5 tackles and 1.5 sacks. Since starting for the injured Ingram, Nwosu has 13 tackles and 2.5 sacks in essentially 2.5 games. Coming out of their bye, Kyzir White played 81% and had 7 tackles (2 solo) and 0.5 sacks. That half-sack came in handy, because this is lowered usage and production from what should be a double-digit tackle guy most weeks. Is this just a down game or did something change after the bye? I think it's more the former, but this week will provide some important clues. He has had some issues in coverage, so this could be the reason for the slight dip in playing time. Kenneth Murray continued his every-down role. He's had 10-11 tackles before, but most weeks he's in the 5-8 tackle range. After a slow start, Rayshawn Jenkins has been productive in the Derwin James role. He added another 8 tackles (7 solo) in Week 7. He's dealing with a sore hamstring, so watch his status but was left off the final injury report.
Shelby Harris and crew face the offense that allows the most tackles per game to DLs (20.7). DeShawn Williams (57% - just 1 assist) took over for Mike Purcell, who's done for the year. In the three games since Jeremiah Attaochu (Questionable) has been out, Malik Reed has 15 tackles, 4 sacks, and 5 TFL. Attaochu is practicing some this week, but it's hard to imagine Reed disappearing. He's been a huge boost to the resurgent Denver pass rush. Michael Ojemudia (73%) continues to play ahead of Essang Bassey (29%) in the slot. Justin Simmons (4 tackles) had a letdown game fantasy-wise, but the Denver D was only on the field for 51 snaps. He should bounce back this week, and we'll take 4 tackles as his floor.
SF @ Sea
Oh no. We're back to another messy DL rotation in San Fran. Lots of DLs between 40-60%, with none of them producing more than 2 tackles. Let's hope this trend doesn't continue. Fred Warner is having the breakout season we were hoping to see from him. He had 7 tackles and an INT in Week 7 and is a top-10 LB. Don't take him out of your lineups. Warner and the Niners will likely see an equal amount of assists versus solos in front of the Seattle stat crew, though. Tarvarius Moore had a good game filling in for Jimmie Ward (Questionable). Ward is practicing this week, but if he doesn't play, Moore is a good DB3 candidate.
This D-line is about to get a lot better. Damon Harrison is getting closer to playing (possibly even this week), and they just traded for a very motivated Carlos Dunlap. Remember when people were worried about Bobby Wagner? That was fun. He had another 11 tackles in Week 7 and is the #6 LB in his six games, and that includes four games in front of brutal tackle crews. Ryan Neal has been a DB1 in place of Jamal Adams. He had another 9 tackles (8 solo) in Week 7. Adams is looking iffy for Week 8, so keep firing up Neal if Adams is out.
NO @ Chi
Marcus Davenport got his first sack of the season on 50% usage. His snaps should be on the rise this week. This was a brutally low game for Demario Davis, with just 2 tackles. He did play every snap, but the defense only saw 46 total snaps. Sadly, the Bears offense produces the second-fewest tackles to opposing LBs, so this might not be a massive bounceback game for him. Just keep this in mind so you don’t drop Davis - an ideal LB2 - for this unlucky stretch. Malcolm Jenkins had just two tackles in Week 7 but that appears to be just bad luck. This was a game where Marcus Williams saw more of the action. Williams had 6 tackles, where he normally has 2-3. Chauncey Gardner-Johnson (72%) had 5 solos and a PD, continuing to play ahead of P.J. Williams (13%).
Khalil Mack has been consistently productive for us as an EDGE, something that's hard to find. He had 4 solos, 1 sack, 1 FF, and 2 TFL in Week 7. He and Akiem Hicks (81% - 3 tackles, 1.5 TFL, 2 QB hits) are having strong seasons. Roquan Smith settled back into his 7-9 tackle range, with 8 tackles in Week 7. Danny Trevathan (78% - 5 tackles) was the odd man out here, which is going to be the case on this defense at times. They both have another fantastic matchup, as the Saints give up a league-high 27 tackles to LBs. In general, Week 7 was a heavy-DB game for Chicago. Eddie Jackson (9 tackles), Buster Skrine (7 tackles), and Kyle Fuller (5 tackles) were busy. For those of you who have been rolling with "Steady" Eddie (Jackson) and his 4-6 tackles got to enjoy his massive Week 7: 9 tackles (8 solo) and a fumble recovery turned into a TD. He's just missed a few pick-sixes, so this was the fantasy gods making things right in IDP country.
Dal @ Phi
There's the DeMarcus Lawrence game we've been waiting for! D-Law had 7 tackles (4 solo) and 1 sack on 62%. His snaps will rise with the trading away of Everson Griffen to the Lions. Aldon Smith (62% - 3 tackles) is still playing a lot, but teams are paying him a lot more attention. Is he slowing down into a DL2/DL3 now? Griffen’s absence will help answer that. Leighton Vander Esch posted 12 tackles, as did his running mate Jaylon Smith. This should be the norm for these guys, and it will hurt the Dallas DBs now that LVE is back. The mystery of Donovan Wilson continues. He played 64% and had 3 tackles, rotating with Steven Parker (36%). I think I’m done with this safety rotation.
Brandon Graham has been an absolute monster this season. He's got a delicious matchup this week against Dallas. All the same things can be said and applied to Fletcher Cox. Fire at will. Alex Singleton (67% - 6 tackles and 2 QB hits) got some good action in Week 7 and will see a lot of the field this week, as Nate Gerry (ankle) was placed on short-term IR. Singleton and Duke Riley will get their chance to claim an every-down role now. Rodney McLeod and this secondary has a great matchup, as the Cowboys have been giving up over 30 tackles per game to DBs, and their INT chances have soared with Ben DiNucci taking over at QB.
TB @ NYG
In the friendly competition between Shaq Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul, it was Barrett who dominated Week 7: 6 tackles and a PD. JPP will want this week, though. He’s playing his former team, and has made some spicy comments about wanting to show them he can still play. The two have been neck-and-neck, producing about 10 FPG each. Devin White is certainly tearing it up (11 tackles and 3 sacks in Week 7), but don't forget about Lavonte David (8 tackles). LD is the # 5 LB overall. Antoine Winfield, Jr. pulled down his first INT, but sadly not much else. He's been a steady 5-6 tackle guy, but had just 2 tackles in Week 7. That said, there was very little production sent toward the secondary, so game script was clearly a factor.
Devante Downs had 5 solos in Week 7, but it was on 56% usage. The Giants D played 81 snaps (about 15-20 more than the average), so that also helped, but I expect Tom Brady to attack Downs when he’s out there, which means LB3 production is likely coming. Blake Martinez had another 9 tackles (7 solo) and added to his big play tally with 2 QB hits, and a PD. He's hell-bent on showing the league he can do more than tackle. He's currently the #1 LB for fantasy. Jabrill Peppers has 5, 6, and 6 tackles in his first three games back from injury. Peppers also added a sack in Week 7. Both teams play in front of friendly tackle crews, so this should be on the high-end of their typical tackle production.
