Welcome to the IDP Weekend Preview. Each week we’ll take a close look at each matchup based on a number of factors, such as roles, where offenses are giving up FP, snap counts, and tackle crews.
Pit @ Ten
IDP heartbreak as Devin Bush tore his ACL. Robert Spillane (53%) filled in and is expected to be the defensive play-caller in Bush’s absence. I also expect to see Terrell Edmunds, Marcus Allen, and/or Ulysees Gilbert out there some as well. If you can hold Spillane this week while we see a full game, that would be ideal. But if you need him, he should be out there a lot. What muddies the waters even more is that Mike Hilton is Out this week (shoulder), so we should see a ton of Cam Sutton. Minkah Fitzpatrick finally got his big play (a pick-six), but only 1 assist otherwise. He’s a DB version of a sack-or-bust DL. And it’s not his play, it’s his role as the primary deep safety. Tennessee’s O-line is tough, but with Taylor Lewan out for the season (ACL), this dominant Steelers D-line will have an easier time than expected.
Jeffery Simmons looks great and picked up where he left off before his COVID absence: 6 tackles (4 solo), 1 sack, and 2 TFL. This Steelers O-line is playing well, so big plays might be hard to come by this week unless the Titans can get a big lead. Pittsburgh has been friendly to opposing LBs, so this could be a good week for Jayon Brown and Rashaan Evans. Pittsburgh produces 20 tackles per game to LBs. Both Kenny Vaccaro and Malcolm Butler have been putting up some huge numbers as teams tend to throw on the Titans a lot. Big Ben will likely do the same.
Dal @ Was
Aldon Smith has cooled off, but he's dealing with a neck issue. He still got 3 tackles and a PD on 66% usage in Week 6. Washington gives up 2 sacks per game to DLs, so this could be a solid bounceback game for him and DeMarcus Lawrence. Jaylon Smith (100%) had a strong game, with 10 tackles, while Leighton Vander Esch (52%) worked his way back into the lineup. LVE should see his snaps - and consequently his production - go up soon. Donovan Wilson (87%) had a bounceback game in Week 6, posting 9 tackles (7 solo). Darian Thompson (13%) moved to a backup role behind Wilson, but this safety rotation could still be in flux. Washington’s stat crew is one of the most assist-heavy units in the league, so be prepared for these IDPs to have more assists than solos.
This Washington D-line has a great matchup. Dallas was already a top-5 option for DLs before Zack Martin suffered neck/concussion issues in Week 6. Martin is Out (concussion). Add that to the fact that Andy Dalton is under center, and it’s looking like a good day to start Jonathan Allen, DaRon Payne, Chase Young, and Montez Sweat. Jon Bostic took 100% of the snaps but managed just 4 tackles (2 solo) in Week 6. He had just 5 tackles on 100% in Week 5. His first two games were good because he added sacks to his 6 tackles. My advice is to assume Bostic is a 5-6 tackle guy going forward and then you’ll be pleasantly surprised when outperforms that some weeks.
Buf @ NYJ
Ed Oliver had another 3 solos in Week 6, and has been a solid DL3/DT2. The Jets are an average matchup, giving up a respectable 1 sack per game to DLs. Jerry Hughes and Mario Addison are also playing very well as of late. While Tremaine Edmunds had a typical game (12 tackles - 8 solo), it was A.J. Klein (88%) who started over Tyrel Dodson, although Dodson is Out with a knee injury. Hopefully Matt Milano (Questionable) comes back this week. He’s practicing and trending in the right direction. Jordan Poyer has been one of the most consistent and productive DBs this season. His 10 tackles (9 solo) lead all DBs. Mostly the manning the slot, Taron Johnson has been loading up on tackles. He has 32 over the last four weeks. Both DBs have a tough matchup this week, as the Jets and their anemic offense produce the lowest number of tackles per game to DBs. Josh Norman is Out with a hamstring injury.
If Marcus Maye can't get it done in this game, it might be time to jump ship. He had 2 solos last week, but he did snag an INT which saved his fantasy day. The Bills give up almost 28 tackles per game to DBs. DT Steve McLendon was traded to Tampa Bay, so Folorunso Fatukasi should see a significant boost in snaps. But the only NYJ DL I want to start is Quinnen Williams. Even though Blake Cashman (34%) returned, it was still Avery Williamson (95%) and Neville Hewitt (100%) as the primary LBs.
Car @ NO
Derrick Brown's snaps rose considerably (71%) in his first game after Kawann Short was placed on IR. He had 3 tackles and 1.5 TFL. Tahir Whitehead hasn't eclipsed 60% usage in over 3 weeks. Shaq Thompson has run hot and cold, but this is a good matchup for him. The Saints give up the most tackles to LBs (over 25 tackles per game). Jeremy Chinn notched his first INT of the season while adding to his hefty tackle production with another 5 tackles. The Saints home stat crew leans toward assists more than solos, but anything is better for these Panther IDPs than their home crew. Literally anything. Like, my mom trying to hand out solos like full-sized candy bars at Halloween would be better.
Marcus Davenport (30%) was eased back into action in Week 5. With the bye week to fully rest up, I'm expecting that snap count to rise considerably this week. That’s good news to help Cameron Jordan, who has been producing steadily without Davenport but could sure use some help. Carolina’s O-line has held up well so far, so this isn’t a great matchup for these Saints DLs. Still, don’t sit Jordan. Demario Davis had 10 tackles in Week 5, partly due to a great matchup. He has another great matchup this week, as the Panthers are one of the friendliest offenses for opposing LB production.
GB @ Hou
Kenny Clark (63% - 4 tackles) had a solid outing in his first game back. He brings an important run-stuffing presence. Krys Barnes (88% - 10 tackles) continues to lead Ty Summers (34% - 5 tackles) in place of the injured Christian Kirksey. Barnes is banged up though (shoulder/calf), so watch his practice reports. The Packers signed ILB James Burgess, so that’s not a great sign for his availability. Raven Greene took over for Darnell Savage when he went down with a quad injury. Savage (Doubtful) is looking iffy for this week, so Greene is in line to start at FS. After not playing much in Week 4, Chandon Sullivan is back to being their primary SCB.
P.J. Hall has been a nice surprise in the middle of this D-line. His 20 tackles are 3rd-most for DLs over the last four weeks. I'm not quite sure how J.J. Watt has become the forgotten man, but he's the #11 DL so far. Watt had another 4 solos and a sack in Week 6, giving him 19 tackles, 4 TFL, and 3 sacks, along with 3 PD, a forced fumble, and a fumble recovery. It's also one of his best games and not coincidentally it was his first post-Bill O’Brien game. The Packers are a really tough matchup on paper, but Tampa Bay got to them last week, and C Corey Linsley is dealing with a back injury this week. Tyrell Adams (75% - 8 tackles) seems to have locked up Benardrick McKinney's spot. He's got LB3 value going forward. Justin Reid is being used more near the action this season (as opposed to being more of a deep safety last season). That's resulted in top-15 production. Reid had another 7 tackles in Week 6, giving him 40 on the season.
Cin @ Cle
DT Xavier Williams (54%) started over Geno Atkins (29%) - which didn't sit well with Atkins - but Williams did post 4 tackles and a sack. Even without Sam Hubbard (IR), Carlos Dunlap (44%) didn’t start, either. Week 6 was a perfect example of the dangers of this LB rotation. Four LBs played between 40% and 60%, but no LB had more than 4 tackles. Germaine Pratt and Josh Bynes continue to "lead" this group. After his first few games where he averaged more assists than solos, Vonn Bell has turned that around lately. With his 9 solos in Week 6, he now has 19 solos in his last 29 tackles. This week, however, is bad for him in the solo category. The Cleveland stat crew heavily leans toward assists.
The Browns D-line is gaining steam as a unit. They pulled down 17 tackles in Week 6, with Myles Garrett (4 tackles, 1 sack), Larry Ogunjobi (5 tackles), and Sheldon Richardson (5 tackles) leading the way, but Richardson is Doubtful this week. Cincy has been a dream matchup for opposing DLs. The Browns didn’t play particularly well in their meeting back in Week 2, so look for a bounceback game. B.J. Goodson (88% - 10 tackles) looks to have a stranglehold on this LB rotation. Mack Wilson (48%) and veteran Malcolm Smith (52%) are rotating next to him. Sheldrick Redwine filled in admirably for Karl Joseph (Questionable, hamstring) recording 6 tackles (4 solo) in Week 6.
Det @ Atl
Trey Flowers is finding his groove lately. He had 5 tackles, 1 sack, and 1 TFL on 73%. The Lions are using him more as a RDE, which is his best position. Earlier in the season, he was moving around a lot and that wasn't a good fit. Jamie Collins (92%) is the only usable LB for fantasy here, but even he is barely in the top-50. It looks like we're past Tracy Walker's early-season disappearance from the lineup. A big step was coming out of the bye with a large snap share, and that's what we got: 6 tackles and a PD on 88%. Rookie Jeff Okudah was targeted often, resulting in 8 tackles. He and Amani Oruwariye are the primary corners - particularly with Desmond Trufant Out (hamstring) - so teams will likely aim for the rookie more often than not. Atlanta’s stat crew is the second-worst for awarding solos instead of assists, so this might not be a great game tackle-wise for your Lions IDPs.
It was a slow Week 6 statistically for Grady Jarrett (93%) but he did have 2 QB hits. His home crew is dreadful for awarding tackles, and Detroit has been brutal in creating FPG to DLs. Is this Foyesade Oluokun's defense now? He keeps putting up solid production while playing almost every snap. A.J. Terrell came up big in his first game back from being on the COVID list: 7 tackles (6 solo), 1 TFL, and 1 INT. He had 11 tackles in his first two games before he missed time. Keanu Neal has built a solid tackle floor. He had another 6 tackles in Week 6 and finally added 2 TFL to put some big plays on the board.
TB @ LV
The Tampa Bay D kept the majority of their unit on the field for almost the whole game. Eight of their eleven starters took 90% of the snaps or more (3 DLs took 68%, 57%, and 51% snaps). The big question mark here is the Raiders O-line, due to COVID precautions. They could still all play. Or they could send out an entire line of backups. And this noticeably affects this Bucs front five. One of those five is newly-signed NT Steve McLendon. The Raiders already give up the 2nd most FPG to DLs. Can we all stop freaking out about Devin White now? He had 10 tackles and a sack last week. Lavonte David was limited in practice this week but wasn’t on the final injury report, so he should be good to go. The Raiders also give up the 2nd-most FPG to DBs, including a league-leading 31 tackles per game, so this could be a big Carlton Davis and/or Antoine Winfield, Jr. game.
Week 5 was Clelin Ferrell's best game so far (71% - 3 solos, 1 PD) and Week 4 wasn't too shabby either. Could this be the beginning of Ferrell finally reaching his potential? Let’s see how he plays coming off the bye. He does have a tough matchup this week, however. Tampa Bay is stingy for DLs but solid for LBs (over 16 tackles per game) and DBs (almost 22 tackles per game). Cory Littleton (100%) was the every-down LB in Week 6 but continues to underwhelm. Littleton posted just 5 tackles. Nick Kwiatkoski (64%) and Nicholas Morrow (39%) continue to split snaps next to Littleton since Kwiatkoski returned from a pectoral injury. Will this rotation stay the same coming out of the bye? My guess is no. I don’t trust any of them at the moment, but my money is on Kwiatkoski. Jonathan Abram (100% - 5 tackles) had a better game in Week 5, but he's still not hitting his potential of a 7-9 tackle player. Abram has been a 3-5 tackle player ever since his 13-tackle game in Week 1. More importantly, Abram is also on the COVID list, so we have no idea whether he plays or not.
Jax @ LAC
Jabaal Sheard played just 19 snaps before being released. He was then signed by the Giants. That’s a good sign for Josh Allen’s health. Myles Jack (Out - ankle) will miss this week, so look for Joe Schobert and Dakota Allen to have solid tackle numbers. The Chargers produce over 25 tackles per game to LBs, which is the 2nd-highest in the league. Josh Jones (9 tackles) bounced back after getting ejected the week before. Even with his 2-tackle game the week before when he was ejected, Jones has 47 tackles which are 3rd most for DBs. His safety partner Jarrod Wilson was also ruled Out, so Brandon Watson will start next to Jones. This Chargers stat crew awards more tackles than any other stadium (though they do like assists), which will help our Jaguars IDPs. Jacksonville’s crew is stingy with tackles.
Melvin Ingram might come off IR this Sunday, but we won’t know until after the 1pm games kick off (the Chargers play at 4pm). Joey Bosa is off the injury report finally, so I’m expecting Bosa to deal some Ls to this Jaguars O-line, particularly if guard A.J. Cann (Questionable - shoulder) doesn’t play. Kyzir White is making me look like a genius, with his 15 tackles (10 solo) in Week 5. It won't always be that stout, but he should be a near-double-digit tackle guy most weeks. White has another good matchup this week, as Jax allows just over 18 tackles and 1.5 sacks per game to LBs. CB Michael Davis has been steadily picked on, producing at least 6 tackles in each game over the last 4 weeks. Rayshwan Jenkins continues to run hot and cold. His weekly tackle production over the last 4 weeks: 3, 9, 3, 9.
SF @ NE
Oof. Lots of injuries in the secondary for the Niners. Starters Kwon Alexander (ankle), Jaquiski Tartt (groin), and Jimmie Ward (quad) are all Out. Dre Greenlaw will fill in for Alexander, while Tarvarius Moore and Marcell Harris should start at safety. If your San Francisco IDPs came up short for you in Week 6, they didn’t get many chances. SF only recorded 43 tackles. That’s about 15-20 fewer than the average team. NE gives up almost 11 tackles per game to DLs - highest in the league. New England is also one of the most generous stat crews in awarding solo tackles and overall tackles. Fire up your Kerry Hyder, Jr. and Arik Armstead shares.
Lawrence Guy had a dud in Week 6. He’s been disappointing so far this season. Talk about what a matchup can do for an IDP! Ja'Whaun Bentley had 12 tackles (8 solo) and a sack in Week 6 in a great matchup. Normally he's lucky to get half that production. The 49ers are an above-average matchup for LBs, but it’s hard to believe Bentley can post back-to-back double-digit tackles. Adrian Phillips (80% - 11 tackles) saw his role stabilize coming out of the bye. He rotates with Kyle Dugger (42% - 5 tackles), but Dugger (Questionable) is dealing with an ankle injury.
KC @ Den
This KC D-line didn't see much action against Buffalo. Only 1 DL (Derrick Nnadi - 2 solos/2 assists) had more than 1 solo. They don’t have the best matchup for tackles again this week. The Broncos give up a league-lowest 4 tackles per game to DLs. You’ll need some big plays to come through this week. Just when we thought we could count on Anthony Hitchens and Damien Wilson as the lead dogs here, Hitchens had just 5 tackles (3 solo) on 66%, while Wilson's better stats (7 tackles) were on just 23 snaps. Oh, and remember how Willie Gay, Jr. had been rising up the ranks? 2 snaps in Week 6. Blech.
Shelby Harris came through in Week 6 with 2 PD to boost his 3-tackle floor. With Jeremiah Attaochu out, Malik Reed stepped up and had 5 tackles and 2 sacks. He and Bradley Chubb (4 tackles - 1 sack) had strong games in Week 6. Attaochu is Out again this week. Other than a bummer 3-tackle game a few weeks ago, Alexander Johnson has been the 7-9 tackle guy we thought he would be. But Kansas City gives up a league-worst 13 tackles per game to LBs. I’m hoping for 6-7 tackles for A.J. and will be delighted if he somehow gets more. He’s got much better matchups down the road. SCB Essang Bassey was sent to a backup role after being worked over in the last few games. De'Vante Bausby and Duke Dawson Jr. split the 3rd and 4th CB snaps next to Michael Ojemudia and Bryce Callahan.
Sea @ Ari
We’re probably another week away from Damon Harrison and Jamal Adams playing games. Adams was close this week, and “Snacks” is still getting back into football shape. Here comes the stretch of Bobby Wagner games that makes the people who dropped him regret it. After 4 of 5 games in front of terrible stat crews, Wagner enjoys 4 of 6 games in front of good stat crews. Arizona is top-10 for awarding solos. Cody Barton's 14 tackles in Week 5 aren't likely to be repeated. He played just 68%, and that was a season-high in snaps. Plus, the team just signed former Seattle LB Mychal Kendricks to the practice squad. With Adams out, Ryan Neal will get to chase down this vertical offense. Neal has played well so far, and the Cardinals produce over 25 tackles per game to DBs.
Arizona just traded for OLB/EDGE Markus Golden, a sign that Questionable OLBs Dennis Gardek (foot) and Kyle Fitts (hamstring) might be closer to Doubtful. Seattle gives up the highest number of sacks to DLs/EDGEs per game, (almost 3 per game), so if Golden can see the field with Haason Reddick, we could see some production. Reddick's role has grown with the injury to Chandler Jones. He posted 5 tackles (4 solo) and 2 sacks in Week 6 on a 63% snap share. He now has 15 tackles and 4 sacks on the year and is a viable EDGE. Isaiah Simmons saw a small bump in snaps (24) and had 4 tackles. Still nothing to see here, but he did pull some snaps from De'Vondre Campbell. Week 6 is why you draft Budda Baker (and why he's the highest-paid safety in the league). His 7 solos, 1 sack, 1 INT, 1 PD, and 1 FF almost filled out every stat line.
Chi @ LAR
Akiem Hicks just missed on a few sacks in Week 6. He ended with 3 tackles, 1 TFL, and 1 QB hit. The Rams stat crew awards a top-5 amount of tackles per game. Hicks has missed practice all week with an illness, however. Hopefully, we’ll get news today about his availability. Khalil Mack keeps proving he's back to being an elite EDGE. He had another 4 tackles and a sack in Week 6. Mack didn’t practice on Friday (back), so watch his status over the next few days before this MNF matchup. I mentioned last week that Roquan Smith had a great matchup and he came through for us: 12 tackles and a PD. This week he and Danny Trevathan have one of the worst matchups. The Rams are one of the stingiest teams for LB production. In Week 6, we saw the Chicago DBs spread out tackle production pretty evenly between them. This could be a good week for Eddie Jackson.
The 49ers were able to neutralize Aaron Donald (88% - 2 tackles), but that doesn't happen often. The Bears aren’t a scary matchup for Donald. They’re the #14 team for opposing DL production. Plus, the Rams are favored by a touchdown, which usually results in more pass-rush opportunities. Micah Kiser (100% - 13 tackles) remains the only fantasy-relevant ILB from the Rams. Kenny Young (13%) isn't a factor despite getting some increased opportunity a few weeks ago. The team recently started moving Jalen Ramsey around to get his size and tackling more involved in the defense. He only had 4 tackles in Week 6, but it's something to watch closely. John Johnson III (13 tackles - 5 solo) and Taylor Rapp (9 tackles - 6 solo) led the Rams secondary in Week 6 with Jordan Fuller still on short-term IR. Rapp should get another game or two as a starter.
