Welcome to the IDP Weekend Preview. Each week we’ll take a close look at each matchup based on several factors, such as roles, where offenses are giving up FP, snap counts, and tackle crews.
Min @ TB
Even in a tough matchup, Ifeadi Odenigbo came through with a sack and a safety. He's playing 70-80% these days and is a solid DL3 with DL2 upside. D.J. Wonnum returns this week to help with their pass rush. Eric Kendricks (calf) is Out and will miss this all-important game (for fantasy), so look for Todd Davis to take his place. I could see Davis posting LB2 numbers here. I like Eric Wilson as a potential LB1. Cameron Dantzler has had a strong rookie season. He had 4 tackles, 1 INT, and a FF/FR combo in Week 13. QBs keep testing him, and he's starting to make them pay.
It looks like Jamel Dean (groin) will miss this game but otherwise, the Bucs D is healthy. They looked gassed the last few weeks before their bye. A Week 13 bye is no joke. I like Antoine Winfield this week. He’s been picking up his play lately, and Kirk Cousins has been throwing a lot and producing fantasy points for DBs. Also, don’t forget how dominant both Devin White and Lavonte David are. White tends to out-produce David, but I love both of them here.
Ari @ NYG
Isaiah Simmons (39% - 5 tackles) isn't taking too many snaps away from De'Vondre Campbell (86% - 7 tackles) or Jordan Hicks (99% - 6 tackles), but he is pulling some of the top off their production. Campbell’s ankle is still bothering him, as he missed practice and is Questionable. Simmons is also Questionable, but from what I can tell, he’s fine and it’s Campbell who is in danger of missing the game. If Campbell is inactive, fire up Simmons as an LB2. There were questions about whether to start Budda Baker last week. He had 12 tackles (10 solo) and a TFL. The answer is always start Budda.
Start Leonard Williams. Every week. He had 2.5 sacks last week and had been a stud all season. He’s more a big-play threat than a high-tackle guy. Jabaal Sheard has been effective lately as his snaps have increased for the Giants. He has 7 tackles, 1.5 sacks, and 3 TFL over the last two weeks. He's been over 50% in usage lately. Blake Martinez (lower back) is Questionable. He got in some limited practices, and they make it sound like he’s good to go, but watch that carefully. Tae Crowder would be a borderline LB1 if Martinez doesn't play. Jabrill Peppers has a 5-7 tackle floor that he regularly "peppers" with big plays. He's been rushing the passer more lately, so his sack last week wasn't a fluke. James Bradberry is normally a 3-5 tackle guy, but he was guarding target-hog D.K. Metcalf last week, so he pulled down 7 tackles. He should go back to a 3-5 tackle guy this week against Arizona.
KC @ Mia
This KC D-line has been underwhelming on the stat sheet. Chris Jones and Frank Clark again came up short, posting 3 and 2 tackles respectively. Anthony Hitchens (71% - 7 tackles) and Damien Wilson (70% - 5 tackles) remain LB3s, while Willie Gay, Jr. (26% - 2 tackles) keeps staying minimally involved. He's a good dynasty stash. Wilson (knee) is Out, so Gay should see more time. Tyrann Mathieu (Questionable) had a massive 2-INT game in Week 13, but Daniel Sorensen (100% - 5 tackles) lost some production to 3rd safety Juan Thornhill (30% - 4 solos). Sorensen's had a few too many mediocre games to be trusted as a DB1 now. If he plays more LB with Wilson out, he could have a bounceback game, however. Miami’s not an awful matchup for DBs, but it’s not a good one.
Emmanuel Ogbah and this D-line have a tough matchup. Patrick Mahomes just doesn’t take many sacks. He hasn’t been sacked by a DL since Week 8. Kyle Van Noy (hip - Questionable) added another 3 sacks last week (he also had 8 solos). Van Noy is a value in big play leagues but has a tough sack matchup just like the DLs. Another game, another INT for Xavien Howard. Here's a tip, QBs: stop throwing at him. On second thought, KEEP throwing at him!! KC is a decent matchup for DBs.
Ten @ Jax
The Titans IDPs might be missing some solos this week. They're going from a top-5 tackle crew to a bottom-10 crew in Jax. I'd tell you to sit Jeffery Simmons in a weak matchup, but he had a weak matchup last week and came away with 7 tackles, so fire up Simmons! David Long (76% - 6 tackles) has supplanted Will Compton (30% - 2 tackles) as Jayon Brown's replacement. Long is someone to keep an eye on for dynasty, but I'm not playing him this week unless he's my LB4. Adoree Jackson was close to returning, but not yet. He’s Out another week.
K’Lavon Chaisson is starting to come on as of late. He’s got a tough matchup this week, but he’s certainly worth a dynasty stash. Joe Schobert came up big with 12 tackles and a pick-six, but Myles Jack also had 11 tackles and a fumble recovery. Josh Jones is back from the IR and is back to posting DB1 numbers. He had 10 tackles (7 solo) in Week 13. Jarrod Wilson was the other full-time safety, sending Andrew Wingard and Doug Middleton back to the bench.
Dal @ Cin
The Baltimore O-line neutralized the Dallas D-line last week, but they should have much better luck this week. Cincy is one of the best matchups for DLs. DeMarcus Lawrence, Aldon Smith, Randy Gregory all have great matchups: Weak O-line, backup QB, backup RBs. And basically, every D-line that faces Cincinnati eats. The new LB plan in Dallas seems to be Jaylon Smith (100% - 12 tackles) playing next to a rotation of Leighton Vander Esch (69% - 5 tackles) and Sean Lee (31% - 0 tackles). LVE is but an LB3 now. With Donovan Wilson out last week, Darian Thompson and Xavier Woods were the every-down safeties. Rookie safety Reggie Robinson was active for the first time but was non-existent. Wilson (groin - Questionable) is on track to return this week.
Sam Hubbard (79%) balled out last week: 10 tackles (7 solo). He's back to being a DL1. Start him through your playoffs. The once-dominant Dallas O-line is now held together with baling wire and chewing gum at this point, and Ezekiel Elliott is dealing with a calf injury. Please don't start these Cincy LBs in the playoffs unless it's as an LB4. You're lucky to get 4-5 tackles from Josh Bynes or Germaine Pratt. And remember that Cincy’s stat crew luuuuuuuvs the assist over the solo tackle. Jessie Bates has been a stud all season, and his 13-tackle game last week likely boosted some of you into the playoffs. He has another good matchup this week. After having a few DB1 games, Vonn Bell was bested by Bates but finished with a respectable 6 tackles (3 solo) and a fumble recovery.
Hou @ Chi
J.J. Watt played all but one snap and had 6 tackles, 4 TFL, and a sack. You love to see it. Tyrell Adams (100% - 12 tackles) is the every-down LB here now, but Zach Cunningham (84% - 9 tackles) is still seeing enough snaps to be LB2+ effective. It was Phillip Gaines (90% - 6 tackles) who started for Bradley Roby. Expect that to continue being the case unless Keion Crossen (9%) can somehow supplant him. Both Gaines and Crossen are dealing with injuries.
With Akiem Hicks back clogging up the middle, we saw Roquan Smith's production return to normalcy. He had 9 tackles (7 solo), while Danny Trevathan returned to an LB4 with 5 tackles. Kyle Fuller is one of the more consistent CBs in the league. He posted another 6 solos last week.
Den @ Car
Week 13 was a great example of matchup. As is usually the case against Kansas City, LBs struggle (A.J. Johnson - 4 tackles) while DBs are busy (Kareem Jackson - 10 tackles, Justin Simmons - 8 tackles). Johnson has a more normal matchup this week, so he should bounce back. Carolina’s stat crew is near the bottom for tackle production, so I see Johnson having a 3-4 solo/4-5 assist game. I mentioned last week that Malik Reed and Bradley Chubb had tough matchups, but they should also bounce back this week. Reed has been playing well.
Denver is bottom-5 for LB tackle production, so Shaq Thompson might struggle this week. It looks like Jermaine Carter has moved ahead of Tahir Whitehead. I like Jeremy Chinn this week. Chinn gets some LB love, but he’s got a great matchup when lined up at DB. Denver gives up the most FPG to DBs.
NYJ @ Sea
Quinnen Williams continues to dominate on this D-line. He had 4 tackles and a sack with 3 QB hits on an 82% snap share. Russell Wilson keeps taking sacks, so if he doesn’t make some major adjustments, Williams could have a big game. Neville Hewitt (12 tackles) and Harvey Langi (8 tackles) continue putting up LB2 production playing every snap on a busy defense. Ashtyn Davis had a solid game (6 tackles) before injuring his foot. He's now on IR. It’s just Marcus Maye and Matthias Farley back there at safety this week. Javelin Guidry was busy in relief at corner. He had 6 tackles. If he gets matched up with D.K. Metcalf, expect a ton of tackles for Guidry.
Carlos Dunlap played just 41% as he was hampered by his injury. Hopefully he'll see more snaps this week, but he hasn’t practiced and is listed as Questionable. If he plays, he’ll likely see a similar diminished role (which is just coming in on obvious passing situations). Jamal Adams is on a tear right now. He had 11 tackles and a sack in Week 13. His elevated level of play is chewing into Bobby Wagner's double-digit tackle chances. Between playing at home in front of an awful stat crew, facing a Jets team that doesn't produce much for LBs, and with Adams stealing some tackles, Wagner has a terrible situation. He's more of an LB2/LB3 this week. He’s been rushing more lately, though and he’s Bobby Wagner, so there’s always a chance he’ll break off a great game.
Ind @ LV
What a dominant game from Justin Houston: 4 solos and 3 sacks (including a safety). He and DeForest Buckner have another good matchup this week against Las Vegas. Anthony Walker (100%) out-produced Darius Leonard (100%) 11 tackles to 6. That's a rarity. Leonard has been posting double-digit tackles with regularity lately. Bobby Okereke (ankle) is Questionable, so Walker may again have LB2+ value. Kenny Moore had 8 tackles in Week 13 and 10 tackles in Week 11, but those were two DB-heavy matchups. This week, he faces the Raiders, who are bottom-5 for DB production. The Colts look like they’ll get Khari Willis back. He’s a borderline DB1.
Clelin Ferrell had a breakout game last week (7 tackles and 2 sacks), but his matchup this week is not ideal. The Colts produce just 13 tackles and less than a sack per game to opposing DLs. Vic Beasley played just 8 snaps in his Raiders debut. The Raiders are playing a fair amount of 3 LB sets, with Nicholas Morrow (100% - 5 tackles) and Nick Kwiatkoski (81% - 7 tackles) leading Cory Littleton (55% - 3 tackles). Jeff Heath has been productive since Johnathan Abram has been out, but now Heath (concussion) is Out. Abram (knee) is Questionable. Hopefully, Abram plays. If not, it’s all Lamarcus Joyner. The Colts offense produces the second-most tackles per game 30.5 to DBs, and Phillip Rivers has thrown 9 picks this season (including 2 in his last three games), so fire up your Raiders DBs.
Was @ SF
I want shares of all these D-linemen. They're all capable of monster games. In Week 13, DaRon Payne had 5 tackles, Montez Sweat had 4 tackles and 3 PD, and Chase Young had 2 solos and just missed on a few sacks. Ryan Anderson (knee) is Questionable. Since returning from his knee injury in Week 6, Cole Holcomb’s snaps have risen into the 80-100% range, and he now has 19 tackles in his last two games. Even after missing some time with an injury, Kamren Curl posted 8 tackles (7 solo). He continues to be a stud.
It could be a good week for Kerry Hyder and Arik Armstead as well as Javon Kinlaw. Washington is vulnerable to DLs. They're also good for LBs. Great, in fact. Washington gives up the most FPG to LBs, so this could be a strong game for Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw. The 49ers secondary struggled mightily last week. The Bills exposed Jason Verrett & made him chase down WRs to the tune of 11 solos and PD. Let’s see if Verrett and Richard Sherman can bounce back.
NO @ Phi
Start Cameron Jordan. Philly remains the most sack-friendly team in the NFL. Jalen Hurts is likely to be more mobile than Carson Wentz, but he’ll also be facing a creative defense that will make him hold the ball. Demario Davis (100%) had 9 tackles in Week 13, while Kwon Alexander (48%) had just 3 solos. Kwon is a non-factor for fantasy. Malcolm Jenkins has been a steady 4-6 tackle option for us but rarely has busted out of that range. C.J. Gardner-Johnson has been everywhere, continuing to cause a stir on the field, but he's been invisible for fantasy most of the time. He's got 5 tackles over the last 3 games.
As expected, the Philly D-line couldn't get much going against the Packers in Week 13. New Orleans isn't a great matchup for DLs, but nothing is worse than Green Bay, so they should do better this week. T.J. Edwards left the game with a hamstring injury, so Duke Riley took over. Edwards is Out, so we should see a lot of Riley this week. It’s still Alex Singleton’s defense, though. He’s been posting 12-tackle games, and he has one of the best matchups for LBs of the week. Don’t be fooled by all the DB production last week. The Packers always pepper DBs with production, and last week was no different. 9 DBs accounted for 23 tackles.
Atl @ LAC
This is a good week for the Falcons DLs, so if you've been rocking with Grady Jarrett, this should be a good week for him. Steven Means has seen his usage and production increase since the bye week. He's now a legit DL3 (but not more). Jarrett, Means, and Tyeler Davison all have great matchups against a Chargers team giving up 19 tackles, 3 TFL, and 1.5 sacks per game to DLs. Deion Jones and Foyesade Oluokun came up big last week in their good matchup. Oluokun was limited this week, but it looks like he’s good to go. Jones and Olukokun have another great matchup, as the Chargers produce 25 tackles per game to LBs. Keanu Neal is also good to go, but Ricardo Allen is Out, so look for Sharrod Neasman to suit up across from Neal.
With the Patriots running so much last week, Jerry Tillery (6 tackles) and Linval Joseph (7 tackles) loaded up on stops. With all that action up front, Rayshawn Jenkins (5 tackles) and Nasir Adderley (4 tackles) didn't have much to do. Jenkins should have a bounceback game against the pass-heavy Falcons. Kenneth Murray had 14 tackles and Nick Vigil had 9. Vigil might be moving back to the bench as Kyzir White is nearing a return. Denzel Perryman (back) is Doubtful.
GB @ Det
Christian Kirksey managed 7 tackles, which is solid considering the front four produced 25 tackles in front of him. He's got a better matchup this week, as Detroit is a top-10 option for LBs. Darnell Savage has been sneaky good this season. He pulled down an INT in Week 13. He's added 3 INTs in his last 2 weeks to his 4-6 tackle floor. Savage (groin) is Questionable. Raven Greene’s role would increase if Savage can’t go. Greene has been productive as the 3rd safety.
Week 13 saw another strong game from Romeo Okwara (96%): 4 solos, 1 sack, 2 TFL, and 1 FF. Everson Griffen got a sack as well. But this week, they face the toughest matchup for DLs. Green Bay is the stingiest team in allowing sacks and tackles to DLs. Okwara, Griffen, and crew have an uphill battle. Jamie Collins (97%) had a 10-tackle game, and is the only fantasy-relevant LB on this team. Jayron Kearse (70% - 7 tackles) continues to play over Tracy Walker (43% - 4 tackles), but what will the new-look Lions roll out for safeties?
Pit @ Buf
Vince Williams was placed on the COVID/Reserve list, so we'll see Avery Williamson take on a bigger role this week. Robert Spillane (knee) is also Out, so it’s all Williamson. This should be a good game for Terrell Edmunds, Minkah Fitzpatrick, and this Steelers secondary. The Bills passing attack creates over 30 tackles per game to opposing DBs. Mike Hilton started producing again, posting 6 tackles, 2 TFL, and a PD. He's starting to play closer to what we saw earlier this season (though I still don't trust him as a DB1).
This should be a productive game for Buffalo's IDPs; they're playing in front of their top-5 tackle crew and facing one of the most tackle-friendly offenses. The Steelers offense is designed to keep Big Ben upright, which means they’re getting rid of the ball too quickly to produce many sacks. Don’t expect many big plays from Jerry Hughes, Ed Oliver, and this Bills defense. This is what we were worried about: Matt Milano (31% - 2 solos) was eased in, splitting time with A.J. Klein (69% - 4 assists). This should be Milano's job going forward, but will he reach 100% snaps in time to be useful for fantasy? Levi Wallace continues to be a sneaky play in this defense. He posted 10 tackles last week, and he's got another great matchup this week.
Bal @ Cle
While Cleveland’s O-line doesn’t allow many sacks, it does produce 17 tackles per game to DLs. We saw another monster game from Derek Wolfe last week (9 tackles, 2 solo). Calais Campbell was clearly hindered by his calf and played just 29%. Hopefully, some rest will help this week. He’s not a lock to play, so I can’t use him this week knowing he’s a Monday Night start. Oh snap! Yannick Ngakoue had a tackle! Of course, that's all he had. After high usage lately, Patrick Queen's snaps dipped back to 66%. He had just 5 tackles, but at least he got an INT. He's tough to use in the playoffs, considering his fluctuating snaps. As always, these Ravens DBs post respectable numbers across the board.
Myles Garrett wasn't 100% in his first game back from a bout with COVID, but he still managed 2 solos, 1 sack, and 1 TFL. Sheldon Richardson continues his incredibly underrated season. He had another 4 tackles, 1 TFL, and a forced fumble in Week 13. What does it say about this Cleveland LB corps that veteran Malcolm Smith (50%) led the unit with 7 tackles and a sack? Still, my money is on B.J. Goodson (75% - 6 tackles), but only as an LB3. Karl Joseph (58%) and Sheldrick Redwine (40%) split time in place of Ronnie Harrison. That's a situation to avoid if Harrison misses another game.
