Welcome to the IDP Weekend Preview. Each week we’ll take a close look at each matchup based on a number of factors, such as roles, where offenses are giving up FP, snap counts, and tackle crews.
Phi @ NYG
A battle of good D-lines vs. bad O-lines. The Eagles give up the 2nd-most FPG to DLs so far, including 14 tackles, 2.7, sacks, and 2.8 TFL. That bodes well for bounceback games from Leonard Williams, Dalvin Tomlinson, et al. They had a slow Week 9 because so much production went to the DBs. Five Giants DBs had at least 5 tackles and no Giant DL had more than 3 tackles. That shouldn’t be the case this week, particularly with Miles Sanders on track to return. Blake Martinez is particularly productive at home in front of his top-10 tackle crew. Both Logan Ryan and Jabrill Peppers are productive playing safety. Ryan tends to play more slot, so if Philly targets Dallas Goedert, Ryan could be busy.
We expected Brandon Graham to have a good game against the weak Dallas O-line in Week 8, and he sure did: 4 tackles, 1 sack, and a FF/FR combo. Graham and Fletcher Cox remain strong fantasy options in this great matchup. It’s looking like T.J. Edwards should be the man in place of Nate Gerry. Just don’t treat him like an LB1 in case Alex Singleton or Duke Riley is more involved/productive. Rodney McLeod's poor tackle output in Week 8 (1 solo) didn't hurt his fantasy day, as his fumble recovery-turned-TD picked him up. Daniel Jones is always helpful for our DBs and their big-play upside.
Jax @ GB
Any day Myles Jack is playing outside of his home stadium - and their brutal tackle crew - is a good day. Jack is an LB1 when healthy, and he’s healthy. Josh Jones only played 66%, which would explain his lowered output (he still had 5 tackles though). HC Doug Marrone wanted to get rookie Daniel Thomas (34%) some snaps. Ruh-oh, Raggy. Same with Taven Bryan, he was "benched" for Doug Costin. Costin does have a concussion, so Bryan might be back, and Jones (Questionable) has a chest injury, but apparently that isn’t what caused the benching. K’Lavon Chaisson played just 28%. If they were benched in a blowout, what do you think is gonna happen this week against Aaron Rodgers?
This is the ugly rotation we didn’t want to see: Oren Burks (61%), Ty Summers (61%), and Krys Barnes (41%). Barnes is injured, and the other two were likely rested as the Packers were up by 30 for much of the 2nd half. If they were rested in a blowout, what do you think is gonna happen this week against Jake Luton? Christian Kirksey has an outside chance of playing this week, but even if he does, it’s hard to imagine him playing much. Particularly if the game is firmly in hand, as the entirety of the Milky Way believes it will be.
Was @ Det
This Washington D is ranked 4th in the NFL with 27 sacks, including 5 vs. NYG last week. Detroit produces a league-low 10.9 tackles to DLs, so it will likely be big plays that carry your DLs this week. That said, the Lions will be without two of their starting O-linemen, so big plays could be plentiful. Jon Bostic is still playing every snap and getting 6-7 tackles. He’s a steady LB3/LB4, but it's a shame he can’t produce more with that many snaps. It’s mainly this dominant D-line that soaks up the production in front of him. Since taking over for Troy Apke, Kamren Curl has been DB2-productive. In Week 9, Curl led the team with 11 tackles (6 solo), and a sack.
Everson Griffen played 41% in his first game as a Lion, recording 3 tackles and a PD. That may pick up, but I’m not expecting a 75-80% snap share on this line. Still, this could be a good week for him against a dysfunctional Washington O-line. Romeo Okwara had another 3 tackles and a PD in Week 9 while playing 91%. He’s the guy I want on this line. Although it’s been nice to see Reggie Ragland (48% - 5 tackles) be productive, only Jamie Collins is usable for fantasy. Tracy Walker was removed from the injury report, so he appears good to go next to Duron Harmon.
Hou @ Cle
Tyrell Adams had 12 tackles but only 6 solo. That was in large part to the Jags tackle crew who gives out about equal amounts of assists and solos. Cleveland’s not much better but they do award more tackles overall. We love Adams, but not over Zach Cunningham. Cleveland’s O-line is stout, so this might be a tough week for J.J. Watt. Justin Reid and Houston's secondary could also be in for a slow game. The Browns offense only musters 21.8 tackles for opposing DBs. That's the lowest in the league by a full 2 tackles.
Again, Week 8 saw heavy tackles from the Cleveland D-line: Olivier Vernon (4 tackles), Sheldon Richardson (4 tackles), Larry Ogunjobi (4 tackles), Adrian Clayborn (3 tackles), Myles Garrett (3 tackles), and Porter Gustin (7 tackles). However, Houston is a bottom-5 opponent for DLs, giving up just 12 tackles and a little more than 1 sack per game to DLs. I wonder if the bye week results in some clarity for these Browns LBs. With Karl Joseph banged up, Ronnie Harrison has been ballin’ out: 10 tackles (though just 2 solo) and a PD in Week 8.
TB @ Car
While New Orleans was an LB-tackle-heavy opponent in Week 9 (both Devin White and Lavonte David had good games), Carolina gives almost 30 tackles per game to DBs, so look for Jordan Whitehead and Antoine Winfield to be busy. CB Carlton Davis (Questionable) is dealing with a knee injury.
Derrick Brown continues to show improvement and be productive. He had 5 tackles (3 solo) and a QB hit on 69%. Brian Burns and Efe Obada should play a ton, as Yetur Gross-Matos (ankle) and Marquis Haynes (shoulder) are Questionable, and Stephen Weatherly (finger) is Out. Jeremy Chinn was a late scratch last week after practicing some. He’s on track to play this week, though, but keep an eye on things this weekend. He’s officially Questionable. If he doesn’t go, look for Sam Franklin to fill in. Franklin had a solid game for Chinn last week: 7 tackles (5 solo) and a sack.
LAC @ Mia
Jerry Tillery had another good game (82% - 1 sack) in place of Joey Bosa last week, and we should see him again this week. Bosa (concussion) has been ruled Out. Kyzir White (88%) again shared snaps with Jahleel Addae (12%). It’s all about the pass/run ratio. If Miami passes a ton, we’ll see more Addae and less of White. Kenneth Murray was benched for Denzel Perryman due to “communication issues” according to HC Anthony Lynn. This might be like Patrick Queen getting benched vs. KC. Rookies will make mistakes. The NFL is hard. Lynn did say Murray is still their starter, so I’m fine with starting Murray this week, just lowering my expectations. The Chargers also played just 50 snaps, so that doesn’t help matters.
Christian Wilkins and Kyle Van Noy hit the COVID/Reserve list late this week. This hurts this defense that had been playing at an elite level. They won’t play, so look for Shaq Lawson, Andrew Van Ginkel, and Elandon Roberts to be more active, and for Jerome Baker to have another solid day. Still, the Chargers remain one of the top matchups for DLs, including a league-leading 19 tackles per game, so fire up your Emmanuel Ogbah shares at will.
Den @ LV
This could be a rough week for the Denver on-ball defenders. Shelby Harris is Out (COVID list) and the Raiders have a stingy O-line. The run-heavy Raiders should make for a big day for A.J. Johnson and Justin Simmons. Josey Jewell - who’s been up and down for fantasy and real football - will soon have company. Mark Barron has been designated to return, though it probably won’t be this week.
Maxx Crosby had his best game of the season in Week 9: 6 tackles and a sack. But this had been building for a while. After a slow start to the season, Crosby has been picking up his production and his snaps. Crosby and Clelin Ferrell might be going up against a 3rd-string right tackle. Nick Kwiatkoski is showing why we were high on him this summer. He led the team with 13 tackles (10 solo). Cory Littleton is Out this week (COVID list), so look for Nicholas Morrow to step up and be a solid LB3.
Buf @ Ari
A.J. Klein should be stepping in for Matt Milano (IR), but Klein hasn’t done much in his spot. With Klein’s coverage deficiencies and Micah Hyde (ankle) Questionable, we could see a lot of “big nickel” DBs Siran Neal. Buffalo just lost Josh Norman, Dean Marlowe, and Levi Wallace to the COVID list. We’ll see more Jaquan Johnson and some Daryl Worley mixed in as well. Arizona is a bottom-10 opponent for all 3 levels of the defense (but not bottom-5), so this could be a slow week for Tremaine Edmunds and Jordan Poyer. You should start Poyer anyway, particularly with the massive clean-up duty he’ll be on this week.
Haason Reddick is most definitely a thing. He had another 5 tackles and 2.5 TFL. He’s not Chandler Jones, but he’s doing a pretty damned good imitation so far. Isaiah Simmons played 52% (his highest of the season) and had 4 tackles. This usage didn't cut into Jordan Hicks (100%) nor De'Vondre Campbell (100%). Budda Baker (groin) is Questionable. The last time he didn’t play, they used Chris Banjo in his spot, but I wonder if - now that Simmons has been playing in the slot - they don’t give him some reps back there. I can’t risk it at this point of the season, but I’ll be watching for future reference.
SF @ NO
New Orleans has been the best matchup of the year for LBs. Look for Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw to have big games. When there's that much production on the second level, it means there's not much happening for opposing DLs, so this might be a tough week for Kerry Hyder and Javon Kinlaw. Richard Sherman won’t be back this week, but he’s getting close. Jaquiski Tartt (7 tackles) had a great game in his return from injury. He’s a solid 4-6 tackle guy but could be cleaning up more than usual this week.
The 49ers are top-10 in sacks allowed (23), so look for Cameron Jordan and Marcus Davenport to feast. They’ve also been rushing Demario Davis. Ex-49er Kwon Alexander should make his Saints debut against his former team, but he shouldn’t unseat Davis. He may see a 2-down role though. The Saints run out 5 DBs on almost 80% of their snaps, and Malcolm Jenkins continues to be the main producer out of this bunch.
Sea @ LAR
Carlos Dunlap dominated in his new LEO role in Seattle. Dunlap took 68% snaps and posted 5 tackles, 1 sack, 3 TFL, and 2 QB hits. Damon Harrison is looking like he’ll finally be active on game day. After an abysmal stretch of poor tackle crews to start the season, Bobby Wagner continues his run of great tackle crews this week. The Rams home stat crew is a top-5 unit. Jamal Adams was again used heavily as a blitzer in Week 9. He had 1.5 sacks to go with his 5 tackles.
Aaron Donald will be going up against a backup center who has yet to start an NFL game. May Don Shula have mercy on that poor dude’s soul. Good luck, Russell Wilson. Donald also gets DT A’Shawn Robinson back, which will provide some much-needed help. Donald may end up with 100 sacks on Sunday. OK, maybe not that many, but there may be a point where you go, “Wait. Can he get to 100??” Micah Kiser has been OK, but he’ll need to be more than OK against Wilson. Jordan Fuller should be back this week. He should be their every-down safety, but they may elect to ease him in. I’m starting him in this good matchup, even if he plays fewer snaps.
Cin @ Pit
Geno Atkins will miss this game due to a family matter (not that he’s been useful for fantasy), but the team does get Sam Hubbard back this week. Hubbard should be busy. I can’t imagine Takk McKinley will be productive on this crowded D-line. And especially in his first game and against this stingy O-line. Safeties Vonn Bell and Jessie Bates should have solid games. The Bengals should see a nice boost in solo tackles. Their home crew is 30th in awarding solos, but Pittsburgh's crew is 5th in awarding solos.
This should be a good week for your Cameron Heyward and Stephon Tuitt shares. The Bengals continue to be a top-5 option for opposing DLs. It’s still likely to be Robert Spillane this week, but I’m still watching Avery Williamson. He could/should take over there at some point. Mike Hilton (Questionable) is looking like he’ll play. If he doesn’t, we’ll see more Cam Sutton. Terrell Edmunds has been a colossal bust.
Bal @ NE
Calais Campbell (calf) will miss this week. Last week, Yannick Ngakoue played 66%. I wonder if that goes up with Campbell banged up. New England is a top-10 team for DL production, both in tackles and sacks. If Ngakoue can’t get it done this week, there might be trouble. Malik Harrison had 11 tackles on 44% usage. I’m gonna go ahead and say we can’t expect that kind of production each week from him yet. Those of you who have been sticking it out with Chuck Clark were rewarded with a TD last week. Just keep in mind he only had 2 solos otherwise.
The IDPs listed as Questionable for New England: Ja’Whaun Bentley, Stephon Gilmore, Shilique Calhoun, Cody Davis, Kyle Dugger, Lawrence Guy, John Simon, Deatrich Wise, Jr., and Jonathan Jones. Man, I hate Bill Belichick. Watch every one of these dudes play on Sunday. This is a good matchup for Chase Winovich (if he gets snaps…you never know) and Adrian Phillips.
Min @ Chi
Eric Wilson rebounded from a dismal Week 8 fantasy outing (4 tackles, 2 solo) with a team-leading 13 tackles (8 solo), 0.5 sacks, and an INT. Speaking of rebounding, Harrison Smith has risen from the fantasy grave lately. He had 10 tackles last week and 8 the week before. And Chicago is the #1 opponent for DBs, producing 30 tackles and more than an INT per game.
The Bears only played 50 snaps in Week 9, so we saw lowered production, particularly from the secondary. Players like Kyle Fuller and Eddie Jackson should see closer to their norms this week. Akiem Hicks had 6 tackles and 1 PD on a 91% snap share. He’s been dominant this season, as has Khalil Mack. Roquan Smith had 11 tackles (9 solo) and a sack. He’s stepped up his play lately. Smith and Danny Trevathan have a good matchup this week, as the Vikings give up a healthy 21 tackles per game to LBs (as well as 1.5 sacks).
