Predicting 2021's Top-150

You often hear people like me say they like to draft off of next year’s cheat sheet, and that’s an approach I’ve taken as far back as 1988.

But in ‘87, when I participated in my first fantasy league draft (literally one hour after being introduced to the concept of fantasy football), I did the opposite of that. Still a teenager and clueless to fantasy, I used my first-ever draft pick on the legendary Walter Payton, who actually did have a very good season the year before. But Payton fell off a cliff in ‘87, and I was so mad at myself for drafting an old guy who, while on his way to Canton, was also heading out the NFL door as a player, that my focus from that point on was to proactively draft young, ascending players.

Two years later, with most fantasy players still skeptical of rookies who were almost never drafted in the first 2-3 rounds, even the stud RBs, I used the 10th pick of my draft on a rookie named Barry Sanders, who posted 1650 total yards with 14 TDs. With my next pick, at 11 overall, I was clearly trying to prove I was the smartest person in the room when I drafted a second-year WR who posted only 55/791/1 the year before. That player, Sterling Sharpe, dropped 90/1423/12 on my league. I’m not 100% sure, but that may have been the pick that prompted one of my leagemates to say “damn, Hansen, you’re like The Guru.” 14 years later, I was actually on a TV show on the NFL Network with Sharpe, and while we became good work friends, I don’t think he believed my story about me drafting him 11th overall in his second season. But it happened.

In terms of sticking my neck out on a pick and nailing it, the Sharpe pick may have been the best draft pick I’ve ever made, and even though I actually did not win the league, from that point on, I was completely hooked on drafting aggressively in the hopes of landing breakout players. I tend to focus on players who I think will have a much higher ADP in a year, so I thought it would be an interesting endeavor to try to actually predict what next year’s ADP and cheat sheet will look like.

Before we get into my 2021 Top-150 list, here’s a quick look at my thought process and how you can try to use this list to find potential breakout players in 2020 for keeper/dynasty leagues - and also players you may want to sell now in keeper leagues:

1. Generally speaking, I taxed and downgraded players who aren’t exactly young. Conversely, I boosted very young players whose best football is clearly in front of them.

• Obviously, if you see a player ranked considerably higher in the 2021 rankings than his 2020 ADP, it’s a clear indication that I see him as a breakout player, but not necessarily in 2020. But if I’m projecting him to go a lot higher in 2021, it’s fair to say I think the player has what it takes to perform at a high level, and it’s always good to know who fits that profile, even if he may not blow up this year.
• If you see a player ranked similarly to his 2020 ADP, that should tell you that I think he’s a stable fantasy asset who will continue to be one next year, which means he’s most likely young or absolutely dominant.
• My 2021 rankings are all obviously educated guesses, but if you see a player ranked considerably lower in 2021 compared to his 2020 ADP, that’s a clear sign that selling high on the player in a keeper league might not be a bad idea.

Let’s break down the players who stand out when comparing their 2020 ADP to my 2021 overall ranking:

Ranked 1-50 for 2021:

Notes:

• It should be no surprise to see me give small bump-ups to young RBs like Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Miles Sanders, already way up the board this year, while giving slight downgrades to veterans like Alvin Kamara and Ezekiel Elliott. But being ranked so high both years is certainly a good sign for all. I’m obviously drafting either veteran high this year with confidence, since I expect them to remain high next year.

• The first two players who really stand out are Jonathan Taylor and J.K. Dobbins. Granted, I’m assuming both Marlon Mack and Mark Ingram will be gone next year. I do not expect Dobbins to hold much fantasy value this year--at least in the first half of the year--unless there’s an injury; but it’s worth noting that I think he’ll be a #1 pick in 2021. I’m way more optimistic on Taylor for 2020, and I think he will be a slam-dunk pick next year, so I’m willing to risk a potential overpay this year to draft him.

• I factored in injury history as well, which explains Dalvin Cook’s drop in 2021. If he misses even 1-2 more games this year, which seems likely, I can’t see him remaining in the top-12 overall.

• There’s some risk, but as you can see, I’m expecting Kenyan Drake to deliver this year, but his 2021 ranking is contingent upon him re-signing with the Cardinals, so dynasty owners will want to keep an eye on that.

• One of the best examples of using this list to your advantage in 2020 drafts is the jump that Cam Akers makes, with a rise of more than 30 drafts spots up the board. So if you’re considering Akers in the fifth this year, note that I see him as a 2nd round pick in 2021, which means he’s an extremely appealing pick for keeper leagues.

• Call me a Derrick Henry hater if you’d like, but he’ll be another year older and is starting to pile up the career touches in 2021; plus, I’m expecting Darryton Evans to grow into a larger role no later than next year, likely as the clear third-down back but also as an active changeup running to Henry, so I’m expecting Henry’s value to take a hit next year. I’m in no way advocating selling Henry this year, but owners in dynasty leagues might want to get Evans if possible.

• 23-year old A.J. Brown stands out a little as getting more love in 2021 than this year, so he may be a small value in a keeper draft this year. I think the masses are already sold on him, but his ADP is somewhat low because fantasy owners are skeptical he can remain as efficient as he was last year.

• As you can see, I expect Calvin Ridley’s rise up the draft board to continue in 2021, likely due to a full coming-out party in his critical third season this year.

• Baked into my Kareem Hunt ranking for 2021 is the possibility that he could depart as a free agent. But the Browns do love Hunt, so I’m not ruling out a return. I’m also not ruling out another release or suspension, so there’s a wide range of possible outcomes. I think that’s reflected in his 29 overall ranking, since he could be like 9 overall, or 99 overall, next year.

• Clearly, I’m expecting a breakout from Marquise Brown, so I’ll gladly use a top-60 pick on a player I’m projecting to go off the board in the top-30 next year.

• Travis Kelce just got a new 4-year contract, which is great, but I had to factor in his advancing age and bump him down a bit.

• I’m also expecting a small regression from Lamar Jackson, which is one of the reasons why I will not be drafting him in 2020.

• As you can see, I envision D.K. Metcalf rising up the board in 2021, which means he’s definitely appealing to me for 2020 and should be a solid value this year before his price becomes too expensive.

• Odell Beckham is a tough call because I want to back him and draft him this year with his value down. But I also can’t ignore his flakiness; plus, he’s another year older and pushing 30 with myriad injury problems. So I can’t say he’s a must-have in 2020.

• As reflected in their consistent rankings from year to year, I’m not expecting breakouts from second-year RBs David Montgomery and Devin Singletary, but I’m not expecting them to tumble down the board, either.

Ranked 50-100 for 2021:

Notes:

• I’m not going nuts on Kyler Murray’s ranking, and I’m actually passing on him at his ADP this year, but note that I’m expecting him to get more love next year, which is certainly a good thing for his 2020 outlook.

• Jumping 25+ spots, I’m definitely expecting a breakout this year from Diontae Johnson, plus I’m factoring into the equation the high likelihood that JuJu Smith-Schuster will not be back with the team in 2021.

• Ram TE Gerald Everett will almost certainly be gone in 2021, so I think Tyler Higbee is a better keeper league pick than 2020 pick, but he’s obviously also appealing to me in 2020.

• Unfortunately, I’m seeing another drop in James Conner’s ADP in 2021. If he has more injury problems, he’ll likely drop a lot lower than I have him, so be careful there.

• I suppose someone will give Leonard Fournette a job in 2020, but his days of being a third-round pick or better are likely over.

• This is a fairly optimistic projection for Stefon Diggs, but based on his talent, he should still be higher on the 2020 ADP list and in my 2021 ranking.

• I guess my 2021 ranking of DeVante Parker is an endorsement for 2021, or at least an indication of his talent.

• I do love Adam Thielen this year and think he’s a great value, but as soon as next year, he might be a little overvalued if he kicks ass. He’s going to be 31 next August.

• It may mean nothing for 2020, but I can’t do anything but continue to downgrade Le’Veon Bell, who will be 29 ½ this time next year.

• As you can see, I’m expecting young QBs Josh Allen and Daniel Jones to come through this year, and for their 2020 ADPs to rise.

• If I’m right on Henry Ruggs this year, he should go from a 100+ ADP guy as a rookie to an ADP range very similar to second-year man Marquise Brown’s this year.

• Maybe he can hang on for 2-3 more years and produce massive catch totals, but I can’t do anything but push Zach Ertz further down the board in 2021. He’ll be 30 in November, and the team has added a lot more talent and speed at WR, so his target numbers should continue to decline.

• If you go by me, Ronald Jones is a sell right now and Ke'Shawn Vaughn is a buy in keeper leagues. Even for this year, Vaughn looks like a better long-term pick with a lower ADP (60 overall vs. 112 for Vaughn).

• For rookie WRs CeeDee Lamb and Jerry Jeudy, I’m expecting them to go 30-40 spots higher next year, which is certainly a good sign. But with projected ADPs in the 70s, I’m certainly not expecting either to go nuts.

• Dropping Todd Gurley almost 50 spots for 2021 may actually be charitable. When RBs lose their explosiveness, they almost never regain it, plus arthritic knees don’t get better, they get worse. Gurley was already walking around in camp with a noticeable limp, so beware.

• One of the biggest jumps for 2021 among all position players is Damien Harris’ 75-pick ascension. It’s hardly a lock, but with Sony Michel hurt again to open camp and with Harris getting some buzz, it’s a fair projection. Harris at this point has to be considered a more effective player going forward.

• I have liked Hayden Hurst for 2020 for 4-5 months, but his ADP has risen 50+ spots from April, so it’s hard for me to expect much of a jump in 2021. That said, I have him holding steady, which shouldn’t be much of a red flag for this year.

• I’m not expecting the world, but as you can see with a pair of young NFC East wideouts Darius Slayton and Jalen Reagor, I’m expecting positive showings in 2021.

• With an increase of almost 50 spots, you can see I’m expecting good things from the insanely talented TJ Hockenson - but I’m also not expecting him to go nuts and soar up draft boards in 2021.

• I’m more optimistic about Will Fuller this year, but that’s in part a function of his affordability. As you can see, I’m tempering expectations for this 2021 free agent, but for me to have him only 10 picks away from his 2020 ADP in 2021 is a small endorsement.

• I have both Joe Burrow and Cam Newton’s ADP rising 50+ spots next year, so needless to say I think they are great value candidates in 2020.

• Michael Pittman’s ADP is 60 spots higher next year, so if you want to make sure you get him in a savvy league, splitting the difference between his ADP (155) and my 2021 ADP (93), might be a good guestimate. That would be around 120 overall.

• Antonio Gibson is a wildcard this year, but they had big plans for him before learning the off-season would be lost, so I’d bet that he does enough in the second half of the season to merit a considerable rise in his 2021 ADP, as you can see on the chart. But his ADP may be inconsistent, so it’s hard to know how much it will rise next year. I’d guess it’s 30+ picks.

• I do have A.J. Dillon rising 60 spots from his (albeit high) 2020 ADP of 155. Baked into that is the chance they let Aaron Jones depart as a 2021 free agent, which I’m guessing is 30-40%.

• I’m not expecting a huge season from Mecole Hardman, due entirely to a lack of volume, so I think he’ll be a better value next year (when Sammy Watkins is gone) than this year.

• As you can see, I’m optimistic Baker Mayfield will have a good season, and I’m expecting his ADP to rise 20+ spots. That’s not a ton, but it’s still a positive.

• I also expect Noah Fant to go earlier in drafts next year, so 2020 may present the best buying opportunity for Fant that we’ll see in a while.

Ranked 100-150 for 2021:

Notes:

• Chris Herndon is a player I see as being drafted a full 60 spots higher next year, which means I’m expecting him to be a great value in 2020.

• An even better value, since his teams’ TE1 may be gone, is Irv Smith, who is up a whopping 75 spots to right around 100. Kyle Rudolph is under contract four more years after 2020, but his dead cap hit drops considerably in 2021.

• I’m personally not expecting the world from Brandon Ayuik this year, since the offense is complicated, but Kyle Shanahan can manufacture touches for him like he did Deebo last year, and I do still expect him to show enough promise to merit a 50+ pick boost in 2021.

• On the negative side of things, I will not be drafting Raheem Mostert this year, as you can see with my projected ADP of 104 next year (around 50 this year).

• I’m not a Ronald Jones truther, have never been, and next year I think he’ll have fewer believers after his ADP goes from 63 this year to 106 next year.

• I didn’t like him at all last year, but it’s hard to argue with N’Keal Harry’s ADP of 160+ this summer. And I think he’ll do well enough this year to rise 60 spots. That’s contingent on him not only clicking this year with Cam Newton, but Cam re-signing with the Pats next year, though.

• It’s fair to say I want nothing to do with David Johnson this year, as evidenced by how I’m projecting his ADP to drop over 60 spots next year.

• Unless he falls off a cliff this year, which is highly unlikely, I think Mark Ingram can still help some people next year, but I’m still projecting his ADP to fall over 50 spots because he’s a good bet to have to move on to another team. Actually, I wouldn’t be shocked if he went back to the Saints, which would be a good spot.

• I could be wrong, obviously, but I’m not seeing a breakout for Mike Gesicki: I have his 2021 ADP unchanged from this year.

• I’m not expecting the world from these two rookie RBs, but I do see movement from year to year with Anthony McFarland and Joshua Kelley, at least solid move up the board to around 100 from their high 170+ 2020 ADPs.

• Julian Edelman will be 35 next year, and we don’t know how he’ll mesh with Cam Newton, so for now I’m projecting him to drop about 40 spots from his 2020 ADP next year.

• He’s a real wildcard this year in that he’s got an amazing opportunity in Green Bay, yet asking for a full breakout is a lot for Jace Sternberger in his second season, so I don’t expect him to jump into the top-100 next year. Still, my projected 60 spot rise would be good news for his value in keeper leagues.

• I like Paris Campbell as a prospect and a pick this year, but I don’t see a ton of upside, yet I still see him moving up a healthy 60 spots next year. Factoring into that is the possibility that TY Hilton does not return as an UFA in 2021. If that’s the case, Campbell’s ADP will rise 80-100 spots, since it’s so low now (187).

• Perhaps the #1 value on any board this year, Steven Sims, has an ADP of 220, even now in mid-August. There’s not a lot of time left for his 2020 ADP to rise, so I see him going 80-90 picks earlier in 2021.

• I highly doubt Marlon Mack will be back in Indy next year, and I also doubt he’ll go to a team that will hand him a huge role, so I see his ADP dropping about 50 spots in 2021.

• There’s no way around it, but Tom Brady will be 44 next year, so I can’t expect his ADP to do anything but drop, and I have his ADP dropping around 40 spots.

• Drew Brees’ ADP also drops about 40 spots, since it’s no lock he actually plays in 2021.

• This time next year, I don’t expect fantasy owners to feel better about Aaron Rodgers, but it’s certainly possible they do if they actually sign at least one more high-end receiver. But Rodgers will also be a lot closer to his end in Green Bay, which should come by 2022. My best guess is that his ADP drops about 30 spots, but he’s a tough call.