If you’re looking for insight for leagues that draft only once before the playoffs, reviewing and leaning on our consensus rankings is your best bet. But playoff rankings are highly personal, since the biggest factor is games played, and opinions vary between individuals in terms of how many games each team will play.
Mine was only one opinion included in the playoff consensus rankings, but for those who are looking just for my opinions, I’ve included a quick 2020 NFL Playoff Draft Plan below.
Before I get into that, let’s get the most important part of this process out of the way: my picks for how I think the playoffs will shake out.
Wild Card Round
Indianapolis (7) at BUFFALO (2) - Buffalo
Cleveland (6) at PITTSBURGH (3) - Pittsburgh
Baltimore (5) at TENNESSEE (4) - Tennessee
Chicago (7) at NEW ORLEANS (2) - New Orleans
LA Rams (6) at SEATTLE (3) - Seattle
TAMPA BAY (5) Washington (4) - Tampa Bay
I feel good that I will get all these picks right, with the Bal-Ten being the toughest to predict and likely my lone loss if I have one this weekend.
Divisional Round
Tennessee (4) at KANSAS CITY (1) - KANSAS CITY
Pittsburgh (3) at BUFFALO (2) - BUFFALO
TAMPA BAY (5) at Green Bay (1) - TAMPA BAY
Seattle (3) at NEW ORLEANS (2) - NEW ORLEANS
Championship Round
Buffalo (2) at KANSAS CITY (1) - KANSAS CITY
TAMPA BAY (5) at New Orleans (2) - TAMPA BAY
Super Bowl
KANSAS CITY (1) vs. TAMPA BAY (5)
Most Games Played
- Tampa Bay - 4
- Kansas City - 3
- New Orleans - 3
- Buffalo - 3
- Pittsburgh - 2
- Seattle - 2
- Tennessee - 2
- Green Bay - 1
- Baltimore - 1
- Indianapolis - 1
- Cleveland - 1
- Chicago - 1
- LA Rams - 1
- Washington - 1
Analysis
I’m picking the Buccaneers to be the best team to draft your players from followed by the Chiefs. The second tier would be the Saints and Bills, two teams that could easily meet in the Super Bowl and each play one more game than I’m projecting. As usual, there are some intriguing teams projected to play two games that could play more than two, and this year those teams are Pittsburgh, Seattle, and Tennessee.
Obviously, six teams are going to lose this weekend, and I’m actually picking the NFC’s #1 seed, Green Bay Packers, to play in just one game. If you’re taking a team that may play only 1-2 games, it’s ideally with one of the teams that appears on the surface to have the best chance of winning and advancing. Obviously, the Packers would be #1 for me on that list. They’d be followed by Baltimore and Indianapolis.
The Quarterback Plan
First of all, the size of your league has a lot to do with your approach at QB. If I’m in a 12-team league and each team has to draft a QB, that places a higher priority on the QBs because I’d be comfortable rolling with only 8-9 players as my QB. I wouldn’t want to have to go with Baker Mayfield, Philip Rivers, Mitchell Trubisky, Alex Smith, and Jared Goff/John Wolford. But in a smaller league, it may be ideal to take your QB with your last pick, as I did in a draft conducted on the radio this morning. It was an 8-teamer and I obviously missed out on Brady, who went four picks after I took Tyreek Hill at #3 overall. As the draft progressed, with six QBs off the board before I made my third pick, it was clear that I was going to be one of the last to take a QB. In the third, I passed on Drew Brees for Rob Gronkowski, which left me as the last team to take a QB, so I used my final pick on Ryan Tannehill, a solid option who I am projecting to play in two games. At the very least, I got good value for Tannehill.
My ideal plan has me going with another position with my first 1-2 picks and then taking Tom Brady in the third round or 25-30 picks into the draft. That’s easier said than done, though. I did that draft this morning on the air on SXM’s Fantasy Sports Radio and Brady went 8th overall (to my Producer Tim Riordan, a Patriots fan who’s enjoyed winning with Brady since he was like 8 years old). I do think it’s possible that Brady slips and is only the 4-6th QB taken, though. One tip-off to that is how he was listed as only the sixth or seventh QB on the board in MyFantasyLeague’s software that is set up for the 2021 playoffs.
If I miss out on Brady, I may “become a fan” of a team I think has a good chance to make a significant run. Josh Allen makes the most sense, but he went 12th overall in this draft I did this morning. Most likely, if I don’t get Brady in the second or third, I’m going to wait and make sure I get a solid option who I expect to play in at least two games like Russell Wilson, Ryan Tannehill, or Ben Roethlisberger. I may, if he drops far enough, consider Lamar Jackson, who has legit league-winning upside in just two games if the Ravens can beat the Titans (certainly possible). Lamar did go 17th overall in the draft I did on the air this week, so I’m not expecting Jackson to fall to me and be a value.
The Running Back Plan
I’m obviously prioritizing the best RBs on teams I expect to play at least two games, ideally 2-3 games, so for me that’s Alvin Kamara and Derrick Henry. But I can’t say I love them early in the first round of a playoff draft. In my draft this morning, I passed on Henry and took Tyreek Hill at 3 overall. For me, Ronald Jones is a great option, since I’m predicting the Bucs to make a long run, and I did get Jones in the second round, 14th overall. As much as I hate him, I also at 46 overall and as the 15th RB drafted, took Leonard Fournette, who should have some standalone value with Jones, and who has a big upside if Jones gets hurt or aggravates his finger injury.
There’s not a lot of high-quality depth at this position, so I just want to be smart about my picks. One player who really stands out as intriguing is Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who was drafted one pick in front of me in the second round at 13 overall. I would have taken him over Jones. I do like Tampa to make that run, so I felt like taking Jones where I did was “smart,” especially since I had already taken a stud WR in Tyreek and since I felt it was too early to take any of the available QBs.
I had a crack at one of the few remaining solid options in the fourth round, after already taking Tyreek, Jones, and Rob Gronkowski. My choices were between Chris Carson, James Conner, Devin Singetary, and Jonathan Taylor. I have the Seahawks and Steelers playing two games, but I couldn’t stomach Conner, whose possible range of outcomes is too wide for my tastes. Carson was a solid option, but that backfield is annoying with Rashad Penny now in the mix and Carlos Hyde also very involved. I also traded stud Adam Thielen for Carson in my #1 league this year only to see him be placed on a shelf for a month after getting me 5 points in one quarter of action, so I’m bitter. So I opted for Taylor, who I actually didn’t own much at all this year. I competed mostly against listeners this year in my season-long leagues, and I pumped up Taylor so much that I couldn’t even get him myself, so he was a sentimental pick. But then again, Indy could certainly win this week, and if they do he’s a steal. Taylor also has the potential to go out with a bang with 20+ FP if he's one-and-done.
Later in the draft, I’m looking for any quality depth I can find if I’m in need of a RB. There are some complementary types on teams I think will play at least two games who are appealing, like
Devin Singletary, Le’Veon Bell, Zack Moss, Leonard Fournette, and Latavius Murray.
I’m not making it a point to draft any of them, but down the board a little, there will be some cheap RB options on teams that could surprise and win a game, maybe two games, like
Gus Edwards, Nyheim Hines, and Carlos Hyde, and at some point you have to look at the top options on the obvious one-and-done teams, like JD McKissic and Antonio Gibson. Given the opponent this week for the Football Team, I’d go McKissic over Gibson, since JDM could catch 7-8 balls while playing from behind.
The Wide Receiver Plan
I usually like balance, so I’d like to have at least one high-end WR, which I got with the third overall pick of my first playoff draft on the radio (Tyreek Hill). I’ll be careful not to overdraft a RB early this year, and I’d be fine taking any stud wideout on a team I like to play at least two games over most RBs not named Alvin Kamara. I’d personally prioritize Chris Godwin and Stefon Diggs, since I’m actually picking the Packers to lose in their first game. So Davante Adams is probably out for me. That could easily end up being a mistake, but I think you’re better off taking firm positions in playoff drafts and letting the chips fall where they may. If they fall in my favor and the Buccaneers make that run, I’m going to be tough to beat.
There are a lot of good options who aren’t slam-dunks, so I’d be looking to get some value for my WR2 and would be happy rolling with a guy who I think has slipped down the board the furthest based on how I see the playoffs shaking out. Diontae Johnson, for example, went in the third round at 23 overall, which I thought was decent value. Emmanuel Sanders was an even better value at 42 overall. Michael Thomas is a tough call, given his injury situation. He went 16th overall, which isn’t bad considering he is expected to play in the Wild Card Round. The Seattle guys are also good WR2s with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett drafted at 15 and 28 overall, respectively. AJ Brown is another good one, and he went 26th overall. Mike Evans is pretty sneaky with his injury, but also risky. He may play in the first round this weekend, but if the Bucs don’t go on that run, he may disappoint the owner who took Evans at 22 overall.
The other appealing WR2 options to me at Antonio Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster,
John Brown, and Corey Davis. AB is very appealing to me. He went 29 overall in the fourth round, which wasn’t cheap but I liked it.
When looking for my WR3, I’m okay taking a stud on a one-and-done team, if they slip enough in the draft. Allen Robinson went 49 overall in my draft in the 7th round, which is pretty decent considering he’s capable of catching 10+ balls in a first-round loss. Hollywood Brown was understandably more expensive, since his Ravens have a way better chance to win, but he was a decent pick in the fifth round at 33 overall. Jarvis Landry didn’t even get drafted in the top-80, so he’s another good one. TY Hilton was a worthy pick 50 picks into the draft in the 7th round.
For the next tiers of players, I’m looking at complementary types with legit potential on teams I think will play at least two games, like Chase Claypool, Sammy Watkins, and Mecole Hardman. I’m also looking at active contributors on teams with a good chance to make a run, like Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Allen Lazard, and Gabriel Davis.
If I’m still looking for a WR, I’d have to then look at the best options on likely one-and-done teams, like Robert Woods, Terry McLaurin, and Cooper Kupp. The Rams guys would be a higher priority if Jared Goff was healthy, but he’s not and it’s tough to back Woods and Kupp as anything but late flyers. I took McClaurin over Woods with the 51st pick of my draft in the seventh round.
And finally, the bottom of the barrel, the complementary types on teams I think will play at least two games. For me, the best teams to get these types from are the Bucs, Chiefs, Saints, and Steelers, followed by the Seahawks, Colts, and Ravens. My best options would be Scotty Miller, Demarcus Robinson, Marquez Callaway, James Washington, Zach Pascal, David Moore, and Willie Snead.
The Tight End Plan
The TE position is quite thin in this year’s playoffs, so Travis Kelce is a good pick in the first round. I seriously considered him at three overall, but I opted for Tyreek’s league-winning upside. Compared to those at his position, though, Kelce probably has more league-winning upside.
I did recognize the lack of talent at the position, though, and I addressed it in the third round with Rob Gronkowski, who was the second TE off the board at 19 overall. That was a little aggressive, but I think you have to take stands in these playoff leagues and my big stand, again, is that the Bucs are going to make a run.
I will say that Robert Tonyan was a good value in the fifth round of my draft and 37 overall. I’m just picking the Packers to lose, so I didn’t wait around for him to fall for me. The best option otherwise is probably Jared Cook, who went 20 picks after Mark Andrews. If the Ravens end up winning, Andrews will be a great pick, but I do have them losing. I have the Saints playing in three games, so I like Cook at the best value at TE.
If I end up passing on the position until the later rounds, I’m lowering my expectations and targeting Eric Ebron, Jonnu Smith, and Dawson Knox, who is starting to come on a little. If I’m still looking, now I’m in go-out-with-a-bang mode with the best options for the teams I see as one-and-done, and clearly Logan Thomas is the best pick.
The Place Kicker Plan
There’s actually decent depth at most of the positions this year, so I’m okay making sure I get a top kicker on a legit SB contender. I opted for Harrison Butker as the second kicker off the board (Justin Tucker was actually the first). If I didn’t get Butker, I’d be targeting Will Lutz, Tyler Bass (for upside), and Ryan Succop, even though he’s shaky. Jason Myers and Chris Boswell would be my last pick of the draft options.
The Team Defense Plan
Similar to my approach for kickers, I’m okay overpaying a little for my defense, assuming I get one I’m optimistic about. I missed out on the Kansas City Defense, but that was okay because I got the Bucs one round later. If I’m right about the Tampa Bay Defense, they will be a better pick for me than the Chiefs, I think.
If I didn’t get one of those two defenses, I likely got caught in a run on the DTs, so I’m merely looking to get a decent option on a team that I think will play two games. The Pittsburgh Defense will probably be long gone, so I’d be looking at the Buffalo Defense and Seattle Defense followed by the Baltimore Defense and the Tennessee Defense.
Good luck in your playoff drafts this week!
