For fantasy purposes, it’s better to have players in games that feature teams that play fast and run a lot of plays. Why? Faster paced offenses drain less clock in between plays which gives the game more volume. And more volume = more opportunities to score fantasy points.
Note: All pace/play stats are from RotoViz and cover the last eight weeks (Week 10-17). And all of the rankings within this column are playoff teams only. Eliminated teams were not included.
Let’s preview the Wild Card slate:
L.A. Rams at Green Bay
Rams: 5th-of-8 playoff teams in pace (seconds between snaps); 3rd in plays per game
Packers: last in pace; last in plays per game
We kickoff the Divisional Round weekend at Lambeau for a near-freezing cold game, which is absolutely perfect. Playoff football at its finest. The Packers have consistently been the slowest paced offense and they won’t go away from their clock-killing ways as big 7-point home favorites against the Rams. Among the remaining eight playoff teams, the Packers are dead last in pace (31 seconds in between snaps), which is a full second behind the second-lowest team (Ravens - 30 seconds). Even though they play slow, you can’t knock the results. Green Bay’s slow play culminated in the league’s most efficient attack as Aaron Rodgers averaged a whopping 3.08 points per drive and produced a score on 50% of their possessions. Both of those figures led the league. With Green Bay dominating time of possession, it’ll force the Rams to play a little faster to try and keep pace — which is something Sean McVay isn’t afraid to do. L.A. averaged 24.9 seconds in between snaps when trailing this season and went at a much more sluggish pace when they were ahead (27.5). Still, with Green Bay potentially dominating the time of possession and the Rams offense lacking firepower, this matchup is fairly short on scoring upside. The over/under is set at a slate-low 45.5 points.
Baltimore at Buffalo
- Ravens: 7th-of-8 playoff teams in pace (seconds between snaps); 7th in plays per game
- Bills: 3rd in pace; 4th in plays per game
This is a matchup of two polar opposite identities on offense. The Ravens are the most run-heavy team in the league in any game-script while the Bills high-flying offense is carried by Josh Allen. While the Ravens are the most run-heavy team remaining when trailing (58%) or leading (66%), the Bills are the most pass-heavy offense when trailing (74%) and when they’re ahead (56%). We’re set up for a special game between two of the league’s most exciting teams from a fantasy and “real” perspective. As you would expect with a run first attack, the Ravens are among the slowest-paced offenses in the league and trail way behind the Bills in seconds in between snaps (Ravens, 30.1; Bills, 26.7). Still, this game has plenty of shootout appeal between two teams that were top-10 in points scored per drive during the regular season. The Bills have turned into a shootout team of sorts, mainly because they are throwing a ton and playing fast, which forces their opponents to keep pace. Over their last eight games, Bills’ games have combined for an average of 56.5 points scored. I’m expecting both of these defenses to have their share of struggles slowing down these offenses and would definitely lean towards the over on the game total (50 points).
Cleveland at Kansas City
- Browns: 4th-of-14 playoff teams in pace (seconds between snaps); 2nd in plays per game
- Chiefs: 2nd in pace; 1st in plays per game
For fantasy, this matchup is by far the best of the week from a pace / play perspective. Even though the Browns are run first, they play relatively fast and have gotten in a ton of play volume as a result. The Browns are second in plays/game (72.4), followed right behind the Chiefs (73.6) among the remaining playoff teams. With the extra week off to rest up and get Tyreek Hill back to 100%, we know what the Chiefs are going to do: Throw the hell out of the ball. This game has massive shootout upside with the Chiefs dictating the pace and scoring. Kansas City is going to push for 4-5 touchdowns relatively easily and the Browns will have to have their foot on the gas all day long, regardless of whether or not Kansas City builds a lead or the game is close throughout. Plus, the Browns might be forced to the air even more often than they’re used to with T Jack Conklin out and G Joel Bitonio yet to be activated off of the COVID list. The 57.5 over/under is tied for the 5th-largest game total in NFL playoff history.
Tampa Bay at New Orleans
- Buccaneers: 1st-of-14 playoff teams in pace (seconds between snaps); 5th in plays per game
- Saints: 6th in pace; 6th in plays per game
Finally, we get to what (might be) the game of the week. The Buccaneers fell to the Saints twice during the regular season in what were two non-competitive games. New Orleans was ahead by 10 at halftime in their Week 1 bout and ended up winning by 11 while they completely stomped the Bucs’ 38-3 in the second outing. The key to this game is whether or not the Buccaneers offensive line can keep Brady clean, because in their first two games, they failed miserably to do so. Per PFF, the Saints generated pressure on a ridiculous 43% of Brady’s dropbacks in their two previous meetings and that resulted in a complete dismantling of their game-plan as Brady had 5 INTs and took 6 sacks. We know the Bucs’ are going to throw the ball regardless, though. That’s what this team is built on and they did it again last week against Washington’s elite front-seven with Brady dropping back to pass 43 times compared to just 24 RB carries. They’ll need to keep Brady upright here because, like the Bucs’, the Saints have one of the league’s only good run defenses. New Orleans closed out the year allowing 3.63 yards per carry (fourth-fewest) and just held David Montgomery to 12 carries for 31 yards. Especially with Ronald Jones (finger/quad) banged up, expect to see the Bucs’ to air it out plenty. Meanwhile, even though the Saints play slow and Drew Brees is clearly on the last legs of his career, the Saints would be wise to dial up a few extra passes as well. Opposing teams correctly identified the Buccaneers as a “pass funnel” — meaning it’s much easier to pass against than run on them. This season, offenses went a league-high 65% pass-heavy against the Bucs’ secondary. There should be plenty of opportunity for fantasy goodness to flow in this spot.
