General Rules for Creating Showdown/MVP Lineups
Correlate with your Captain/MVP - Make sure you are creating a roster that makes sense with your 1.5x player.
On DraftKings, lean RB/WR in the captain. Though QB can finish as the optimal captain, it’s often overused by the field relative to its success rate. When you are using a QB in the captain, I like to use a lot of his pass-catchers. Because the likely scenario if a QB ends up as the captain on DK is he spreads his touchdowns around to multiple receivers and not one skill player had a ceiling game.
On FanDuel the MVP spot doesn’t cost you 1.5x salary which means you’re just trying to get the highest scoring player in that spot. Contrary to DK, it’s often the QB because of the scoring system. I would lean QB/RB on FD, but there are always exceptions to the rule.
Leave salary on the table - I’m not just talking about a few hundred. Don’t be afraid to leave a few thousand on the table. In a slate that has an extremely limited number of viable options, there is a much greater chance for lineup duplication. It may not seem like much of an issue, but it can decimate your expected value to put in lineups that are going to split with 500 other people.
Multi-enter if you can. Single-game slates have so much variance that the first play of the game can take you completely out of contention if you only have one lineup. It’s best to build a bunch of lineups (you don’t have to max enter) that concentrate on different game scripts and a handful of different correlated captains.
DST and Kickers, while not very exciting usually offer a solid floor for cheap. Especially in game scripts that go under expected point totals. I would only use at most two per lineup.
When creating single-game lineups, the most important part is creating correlated lineups according to a projected game script, and not pinpointing the exact five or six players who will score the most fantasy points on the slate.
Captain
Jonathan Taylor will probably be the most owned captain on the night due to his point per touch efficiency. He doesn’t get the workload of some of the other workhorse backs in the league, seeing around 15-18 carries and a couple targets each week. He has the ability to do a lot with those touches which is why he makes for a solid captain. We’ve seen him turn screen passes into 70-yard touchdowns, which can break single game slates.
Carson Wentz and Michael Pittman can be slotted into the 1.5x spot as well. Wentz has gotten back to running the ball a bit, which helps his odds of landing in the captain spot. He can also spread the ball around quite a bit to his different receivers, backs, and tight ends. Pittman is coming into his own this season. Last week he had a dominating two touchdown performance. Those touchdowns came at the goal line. So he’s getting involved even when the Colts are in close which is promising. He’s also currently seeing 35% of Carson Wentz’s air yards. He’s become the alpha on this Colts’ team and I can’t see the Jets stopping him. They currently rank last in fantasy points allowed to WRs
Michael Carter has caught 17 passes in his last two outings with Mike White under center. I was curious to see if the first game was a fluke, but it seems like it was not. White likes to hit the short to intermediate routes in the offense which resulted in a lot of success for the backs and low aDot receivers. With Carter I like builds where he is one of the only two Jets, but he’s captained and all Colts are in the flex. For White to be the captain he’s going to have to throw multiple touchdowns to different receivers so his lineup constructions will look different, usually with multiple pass-catchers in the flex.
Flex
Ty Johnson had success that was overshadowed by Michael Carter in Week 8. He had a really nice touchdown catch where he tight roped the sideline and dove in for a score. He provides nice leverage off what should be a super popular Carter. I think they can even be played in the same lineup with the way Johnson and Carter have been both involved during White’s time under center.
Jamison Crowder seems to be the favorite target of Mike White or at least it looked that way last week. He racked up nine targets in a high volume effort against the Bengals. I do think we have to plan for that game to have been somewhat fluky in terms of pace and scoring relative to this game against the Colts. I can see this game being a slog and scoring being tough to come by. The good thing is that in either case, Crowder has value with his receptions.
Keenan Cole and Elijah Moore are the 2A and 2B in this offense from the wide receiver position. Elijah Moore saw more usage with Zach Wilson, but things have evened out with White in the lineup. I think they are both in play, especially with Mike White captain lineups. They can also be added as one-offs to Colts heavy lineups as well.
Braxton Berrios and Denzel Mims make for solid rotational pieces when you are MMEing. Their salaries are cheap enough that they can hit on the 2-4 targets that are being projected for them. Depending on the lineup build, you may have to use Berrios or Mims instead of Cole and Moore due to pricing. Mims probably needs a touchdown to get there so I like adding him to some Mike White lineups
Tyler Kroft and Ryan Griffin haven’t been utilized much in this offense, but Kroft did catch a touchdown last week. Neither pass-catcher projects well, but it’s easy to imagine White’s tendency to throw the ball short leading to a useable stat line for either Kroft or Griffin. In Jets’ heavy builds using one of Berrios, Mims, Kroft, or Griffin may be necessary.
Nyheim Hines value comes in the passing game. I can’t imagine a scenario where the Jets dominate to a point that Hines is on the field exclusively in a furious catch-up approach. He does cut into Taylor’s snaps on a regular basis though. Hines makes sense in Carson Wentz lineups to capture the pass-catching upside and a potential touchdown from Hines.
Zach Pascal is the clear cut second option at wide receiver without Parris Campbell and TY Hilton. Pascal has seen 16% of the teams target and air yards, but most importantly is a real end zone threat. I think he’s a strong add to lineups that have Wentz at captain or even flex.
The Colts are pretty thin at pass-catcher after Pittman and Pascal. For that reason, Ashton Dulin along with tight ends Mo Allie-Cox and Jack Doyle are going to be key cheap options in lineups for this slate. Dulin is super inexpensive and can be the last man in when you have only a few dollars left. Cox has been really solid this season, I like him as a piece in Wentz captain lineups as he’s pretty touchdown dependent. The same goes for Doyle, who scored his first touchdown of the year last week.
Lineup Starters
Captain/MVP: Jonathan Taylor
Flex: Colts DST, Jamison Crowder, Zach Pascal
Captain/MVP: Michael Pittman
Flex: Michael Carter, Mike White, Ashton Dulin
Captain/MVP: Carson Wentz
Flex: Nyheim Hines, Mo Allie-Cox, Jamison Crowder
Captain/MVP: Jonathan Taylor
Flex: Mike White, Jamison Crowder, Ty Johnson
Captain/MVP: Michael Carter
Flex: Michael Pittman, Carson Wentz, Ashton Dulin
Captain/MVP: Mike White
Flex: Michael Carter, Elijah Moore, Michael Pittman
