General Rules for Creating Showdown/MVP Lineups
Correlate with your Captain/MVP - Make sure you are creating a roster that makes sense with your 1.5x player.
On DraftKings, lean RB/WR in the captain. Though QB can finish as the optimal captain, it’s often overused by the field relative to its success rate. When you are using a QB in the captain, I like to use a lot of his pass-catchers. Because the likely scenario if a QB ends up as the captain on DK is he spreads his touchdowns around to multiple receivers and not one skill player had a ceiling game.
On FanDuel the MVP spot doesn’t cost you 1.5x salary which means you’re just trying to get the highest scoring player in that spot. Contrary to DK, it’s often the QB because of the scoring system. I would lean QB/RB on FD, but there are always exceptions to the rule.
Leave salary on the table - I’m not just talking about a few hundred. Don’t be afraid to leave a few thousand on the table. In a slate that has an extremely limited number of viable options, there is a much greater chance for lineup duplication. It may not seem like much of an issue, but it can decimate your expected value to put in lineups that are going to split with 500 other people.
Multi-enter if you can. Single-game slates have so much variance that the first play of the game can take you completely out of contention if you only have one lineup. It’s best to build a bunch of lineups (you don’t have to max enter) that concentrate on different game scripts and a handful of different correlated captains.
DST and Kickers, while not very exciting usually offer a solid floor for cheap. Especially in game scripts that go under expected point totals. I would only use at most two per lineup.
When creating single-game lineups, the most important part is creating correlated lineups according to a projected game script, and not pinpointing the exact five or six players who will score the most fantasy points on the slate.
Captain
With both Davante Adams and Allen Lazard on the Covid list, there is going to be a lot of Packers’ production up for grabs in this game. Aaron Jones has had some of his best fantasy performances with Adams out of the lineup. When Adams had to miss two seasons ago, Jones basically turned into Christian McCaffrey in that game, ramping up his receiving usage. Jones will definitely see an increase in carries and targets in this game. When slotting Jones into the captain spot, I think it makes sense to use a Cardinals heavy build. If Jones has similar usage to other games when Adams was out, I could see him rendering many of his teammates useless.
Aaron Rodgers isn’t off the table without Adams, in fact it actually may increase his odds of landing in the captain. We always harp on the fact that wide receivers will outscore their quarterbacks due to the scoring if all the production goes to one receiver. Without Adams, Rodgers will spread the ball around to a host of receivers, backs, and tight ends. That is the recipe for a quarterback captain. Rodgers also has some mobility and can pick up a few points with his legs on a rushing touchdown.
Robert Tonyan and Randall Cobb are the pass-catchers from the Packers that I think has the best chance to land in the captain spot. The Packers are losing over 40% of their targets and nearly 60% of their air yards in this game. The two pass-catchers who are right behind Adams and Lazard are Tonyan and Cobb. Sure there are some pass-catchers that you could get into the captain for pennies, but Cobb and Tonyan have the best odds to see the requisite targets to actually land in the captain. I would sprinkle them in if you are MMEing
Kyler Murray is the classic quarterback captain option. He has been spreading the ball around to the point that DeAndre Hopkins has seen a dip in production in lieu of A.J Green, Christian Kirk, Rondale Moore, and the tight end position. He’s also an excellent runner of the football. If Murray lands in the captain spot he is most likely running a touchdown in and gaining some yards on the ground as well. You can use Murray in Packer heavy builds with one pass-catcher, which projects he gains fantasy points on the ground. Or you can stack him up with a few pass-catchers, projecting that he spreads the ball around
Flex
Deandre Hopkins really hasn’t been the receiver we’ve seen throughout his career this year. The Cardinals have depth at the position and Kyler isn’t forcing him the ball. He’s absolutely in play because of his touchdown potential, but I don’t know if his ceiling is the 10/150/2 games that we’ve seen throughout his career. Hopkins has correlated negatively with James Conner and AJ Green the most in games this season. That makes sense as Green directly takes away from his receiving production and Conner can vulture his touchdown upside.
A.J Green and Christian Kirk have been almost the same receiver this season. They’ve seen about 15% of target and 25% of air yards each. When rostering Cardinals receivers, I would make a rule that limits the exposure of these two and Hopkins in the same lineup. I think it’s okay to roster both Green and Kirk a bit more generously given their salaries.
Zach Ertz and Rondale Moore directly impact each other like Hopkins and the tertiary receivers do. If the Cardinals are running out a tight end, you probably won’t see Rondale Moore on the field as it’s difficult to get four receivers and a tight end on the field at the same time. Both Ertz and Moore can have solid games in the came contest, but because they’ll eat into each others’ playing time, it’s a bit less optimal to play them in the same lineup.
Amari Rodgers, Equinameous St. Brown, Malik Taylor, and Marcedes Lewis will be the dart throws that you can slot in as the last player in your lineup. Each player is extremely inexpensive on DraftKings and can make the rest of your lineup look really solid. In terms of projected target share, St. Brown probably has the most equity. He’s been with the team the longest and currently has the most targets of the tertiary receivers. Rodgers would be my second favorite followed by Lewis, then Taylor. We have to pay attention to the inactives because Taylor is banged up and there is a chance that Marquez Valdes-Scantling suits up. For me it’s a matter of building a core and getting these pass-catchers sprinkled in fairly evenly.
Chase Edmonds and James Conner have both been pretty solid to this point in the season, however Conner has been the touchdown vulture. If you are rostering Conner, he directly impacts the ceiling on Kyler Murray and the pass-catchers. Edmonds on the other hand has been somewhat productive without scoring. He can also catch passes from Kyler so he is stackable with the passing game.
AJ Dillon scored negative fantasy points last week, so I’m assuming his rostered percentage is fairly low this week. With a very banged up skill group, there’s a chance that the Packers try to establish the run by pounding both Dillon and Aaron Jones more than normal. If the Packers go run-heavy, I don’t think it’s out of the realm of possibilities that both backs land in the optimal.
Lineup Starters
Captain/MVP: Aaron Jones
Flex: Kyler Murray, AJ Green, Chase Edmonds
Captain/MVP: Aaron Rodgers
Flex: Robert Tonyan, Randall Cobb, Christian Kirk
Captain/MVP: Kyler Murray
Flex: Deandre Hopkins, Aaron Jones, EQ St. Brown
Captain/MVP: Aaron Jones
Flex: Aaron Rodgers, Randall Cobb, Zach Ertz
Captain/MVP: Kyler Murray
Flex: AJ Green, Zach Ertz, Robert Tonyan
