General Rules for Creating Showdown/MVP Lineups
Correlate with your Captain/MVP - Make sure you are creating a roster that makes sense with your 1.5x player.
On DraftKings, lean RB/WR in the captain. Though QB can finish as the optimal captain, it’s often overused by the field relative to its success rate. When you are using a QB in the captain, I like to use a lot of his pass-catchers. Because the likely scenario if a QB ends up as the captain on DK is he spreads his touchdowns around to multiple receivers and not one skill player had a ceiling game.
On FanDuel the MVP spot doesn’t cost you 1.5x salary which means you’re just trying to get the highest scoring player in that spot. Contrary to DK, it’s often the QB because of the scoring system. I would lean QB/RB on FD, but there are always exceptions to the rule.
Leave salary on the table - I’m not just talking about a few hundred. Don’t be afraid to leave a few thousand on the table. In a slate that has an extremely limited number of viable options, there is a much greater chance for lineup duplication. It may not seem like much of an issue, but it can decimate your expected value to put in lineups that are going to split with 500 other people.
Multi-enter if you can. Single-game slates have so much variance that the first play of the game can take you completely out of contention if you only have one lineup. It’s best to build a bunch of lineups (you don’t have to max enter) that concentrate on different game scripts and a handful of different correlated captains.
DST and Kickers, while not very exciting, usually offer a solid floor for cheap. Especially in game scripts that go under expected point totals. I would only use at most two per lineup.
When creating single-game lineups, the most important part is creating correlated lineups according to a projected game script, and not pinpointing the exact five or six players who will score the most fantasy points on the slate.
Captain
Tyreek Hill remains the highest ceiling play on any slate he’s a part of, so he should be in your captain pool in this game. Obviously when he is in the 1.5x spot on DraftKings, it’s going to be difficult for Patrick Mahomes AND Travis Kelce to both be in that lineup. It’s much different than using a Mahomes double-stack in a regular contest. Though it’s difficult, it’s possible. There are players in the low salary range that are viable like Gabriel Davis, Devin Singletary, the DSTs and Kickers that can make the lineup work. The issue is they HAVE to work because it’s all that fits and your lineups are likely to be duplicated. WIth that said, Hill and Kelce are responsible for 66% of the Chiefs’ air yards and 55% of their targets so it’s a build you should be thinking about.
Mecole Hardman comes in third in target share with around 15% so he’s a viable captain in this game with studs everywhere. If Hardman catches a long touchdown, he could land as the optimal captain if the rest of the scoring is done by high salary players. With Hardman in the captain, you can fit Mahomes, Hill, Kelce, and Diggs pretty comfortably in the flex.
Josh Allen possesses the skill set to land as the optimal captain with his ability to scramble. He’s added at least four fantasy points a game with his feet. You can create lineups in multiple ways with Allen at captain. The first is a Chiefs’ heavy flex lineup with just Allen and one pass-catcher in the flex, this scenario requires Allen to score on the ground. The other option is two to three pass-catchers which projects a spread it around attack. The Bills often fall into this category as well where three pass-catchers score and no one tops 100 yards.
Stefon Diggs hasn’t had a massive breakout performance despite seeing an average of 10.5 targets per game this season, so this may be the spot. He is priced down a bit because of his lack of ceiling performances and I think this is a good spot to take advantage of his suppressed pricing. He currently is seeing 37% of the Bills’ air yards and 28% of their targets.
Emmanuel Sanders has been playing second fiddle in this offense which is somewhat of a surprise. He is seeing the type of targets that could land him in the captain spot. He is seeing a massive 30% of air yards. Dawson Knox could also potentially get there with his end zone usage. He has been Allen’s favorite target when they get in close. He’s my favorite option as the cheap captain from the Bill’s side to get access to all the studs in the flex.
Flex
Zack Moss and Devin Singletary are solid options as they’ve produced in different spots this season. Due to the fact they aren’t very involved in the passing game, their ceiling games directly impact the viability of the Bills’ passing attack. If you are slotting them in as a flex spot, it downgrades Josh Allen’s captain chances.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire almost made the captain write up, but I think in this game the Chiefs are going to rely on the passing game. His usage in the passing game has been sparse, though it’s been near the goal line resulting in receiving touchdowns. He is a viable add to Chiefs stacks, though I don’t think they’ll turn to him heavily in this game for him to land as the optimal captain. Darrell Williams is an okay dart throw as the last man into lineups to attempt to catch some touchdown variance at the goal line. He can make some stud heavy lineups work.
Demarcus Robinson is seeing deeper shots downfield than Mecole Hardman, just not many of them. He will make my flex pool in Mahomes captain lineups. He has an average depth of target of 12.3 yards. Byron Pringle is the other dart throw at receiver that could potentially luck into some touchdown variance and land in a Mahomes captain lineup. He out targeted Robinson last week.
The Bills tertiary targets of Cole Beasley and Gabriel Davis have popped at different moments this season. Davis is extremely cheap so he makes a lot of different lineup combinations work. Beasley is a bit more expensive but his salary is a bit prohibitive for his projected workload. I think Beasley works in Chiefs heavy blowout type lineups as he could get there in a hurry up, garbage time type comeback scenario.
The last man in dart throw that should be considered in if you are mass multi-entering are Jody Fortson who has been worked into the passing game at the goal line. He has scored in the last two contests with some goal line trickery.
Lineup Starters
Captain/MVP: Patrick Mahomes
Flex: Travis Kelce, Demarcus Robinson, Stefon Diggs
Captain/MVP: Tyreek Hill
Flex: Patrick Mahomes, Emmanuel Sanders, Devin Singletary
Captain/MVP: Josh Allen
Flex: Dawson Knox, Gabe Davis, Tyreek Hill
Captain/MVP: Stefon Diggs
Flex: Josh Allen, Travis Kelce, Mecole Hardman
Captain/MVP: Travis Kelce
Flex: Patrick Mahomes, Stefon Diggs, Tyler Bass
Captain/MVP: Dawson Knox
Flex: Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill
