General Rules for Creating Showdown/MVP Lineups
Correlate with your Captain/MVP - Make sure you are creating a roster that makes sense with your 1.5x player.
On DraftKings, lean RB/WR in the captain. Though QB can finish as the optimal captain, it’s often overused by the field relative to its success rate. When you are using a QB in the captain, I like to use a lot of his pass-catchers. Because the likely scenario if a QB ends up as the captain on DK is he spreads his touchdowns around to multiple receivers and not one skill player had a ceiling game.
On FanDuel the MVP spot doesn’t cost you 1.5x salary which means you’re just trying to get the highest scoring player in that spot. Contrary to DK, it’s often the QB because of the scoring system. I would lean QB/RB on FD, but there are always exceptions to the rule.
Leave salary on the table - I’m not just talking about a few hundred. Don’t be afraid to leave a few thousand on the table. In a slate that has an extremely limited number of viable options, there is a much greater chance for lineup duplication. It may not seem like much of an issue, but it can decimate your expected value to put in lineups that are going to split with 500 other people.
Multi-enter if you can. Single-game slates have so much variance that the first play of the game can take you completely out of contention if you only have one lineup. It’s best to build a bunch of lineups (you don’t have to max enter) that concentrate on different game scripts and a handful of different correlated captains.
DST and Kickers, while not very exciting usually offer a solid floor for cheap. Especially in game scripts that go under expected point totals. I would only use at most two per lineup.
When creating single-game lineups, the most important part is creating correlated lineups according to a projected game script, and not pinpointing the exact five or six players who will score the most fantasy points on the slate.
Captain
Austin Ekeler will carry the load and get the bulk of the carries and targets out of the backfield. Ekeler hasn’t been as involved in the passing game as usual, but I think tonight could be a different story as Ekeler should have an advantage against the Raiders linebackers.
Mike Williams and Keenan Allen are two completely different animals. Williams is the big play threat even though he hasn’t been much of one most of the season. I think him paired with Herbert at all times because the touchdowns will be what get him there. Allen makes sense if you think the game is going to be a high-scoring fast-paced game, especially from behind.
Justin Herbert is flat out one of the best quarterbacks in the league right now. He has the “spread it around” nature to be the captain tonight. If Herbert slings it to Keenan Allen for 10-100 and a few ancillary pieces like Cook and Palmer have touchdowns Herbert will probably land in the optimal captain. Not to mention he has mobility as well and can run in touchdowns when they get into the red zone.
Josh Jacobs may be my favorite captain because I think he will be under-rostered, however we know the Chargers like to keep everything in front of them. They’ve been happy all year to let backs churn out five yards as long as they aren’t hitting the big play behind them.
Hunter Renfrow is here because they are playing the Chargers, like I mentioned the Raiders play bend don’t break defense. They won’t care if Renfrow is eating up eight yards at a time, but if turns into 10-100-1 for Renfrow over the course of the game.
We all know Darren Waller has a massive ceiling, we saw it in week one. There really has been much indication of how healthy he is, but I don’t think they’d bring him back a week early after having him sit out half the season. I would be very cautious with exposure to Waller, but he’s worth a captain dart for sure.
Flex
Zay Jones, Bryan Edwards, and DeSean Jackson can all be rotated through lineups that have Derek Carr. Jones has been the dominant receiver, even more so than Renfrow over the last month. Jones has owned a 40% of air yards. Of course this all changes with Darren Waller returning. Edwards will probably be an afterthought. Jackson makes sense as a cheap option that can hit value with one deep shot. With the Chargers being a run-funnel I’d much rather focus on Jacobs and supporting pass-catchers in most lineups. However, you have to have some exposure to Carr.
Foster Moreau takes a huge hit in value, but I think he merits playing especially if Waller will be limited and we don’t know the details, or potentially Waller aggravates his knee. He will be a supremely low-rostered dart.
The Chargers have a slew of ancillary pieces that could catch passes in this game. Joshua Palmer has taken over as the top third option. I prefer him to Jaylen Guyton who has really fallen off in terms of snaps and usage. Jared Cook will return and be a solid option especially in Herbert captain lineups. Stephen Anderson may get into lineups as a second tight end where Donald Parham would slot in.
There are some cheaper dart throws that can be used sparingly in lineups. Jalen Richard and Peyton Barber will rotate in a bit at running back. Richard makes sense if you think the Raiders will be trailing big. Tre McKitty is good for a catch and maybe an end zone target for the Chargers. Lastly, Justin Jackson is extremely expensive however he’s worth one or two multi-entry fliers.
Lineup Starters
Captain: Josh Jacobs
Flex: Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen, Jared Cook
Captain: Justin Herbert
Flex: Austin Ekeler, Josh Palmer, Zay Jones
Captain: Mike Williams
Flex: Justin Herbert, Hunter Renfrow, Chargers DST
Captain: Austin Ekeler
Flex: Justin Herbert, Jared Cook, Darren Waller
Captain: Keenan Allen
Flex: Derek Carr, Zay Jones, Hunter Renfrow
Captain: Darren Waller
Flex: Justin Herbert, Mike Williams, Tre McKitty
