General Rules for Creating Showdown/MVP Lineups
Correlate with your Captain/MVP - Make sure you are creating a roster that makes sense with your 1.5x player.
On DraftKings, lean RB/WR in the captain. Though QB can finish as the optimal captain, it’s often overused by the field relative to its success rate. When you are using a QB in the captain, I like to use a lot of his pass-catchers. Because the likely scenario if a QB ends up as the captain on DK is he spreads his touchdowns around to multiple receivers and not one skill player had a ceiling game.
On FanDuel the MVP spot doesn’t cost you 1.5x salary which means you’re just trying to get the highest scoring player in that spot. Contrary to DK, it’s often the QB because of the scoring system. I would lean QB/RB on FD, but there are always exceptions to the rule.
Leave salary on the table - I’m not just talking about a few hundred. Don’t be afraid to leave a few thousand on the table. In a slate that has an extremely limited number of viable options, there is a much greater chance for lineup duplication. It may not seem like much of an issue, but it can decimate your expected value to put in lineups that are going to split with 500 other people.
Multi-enter if you can. Single-game slates have so much variance that the first play of the game can take you completely out of contention if you only have one lineup. It’s best to build a bunch of lineups (you don’t have to max enter) that concentrate on different game scripts and a handful of different correlated captains.
DST and Kickers, while not very exciting usually offer a solid floor for cheap. Especially in game scripts that go under expected point totals. I would only use at most two per lineup.
When creating single-game lineups, the most important part is creating correlated lineups according to a projected game script, and not pinpointing the exact five or six players who will score the most fantasy points on the slate.
Captain
Davante Adams massive target share will probably have him as the highest rostered captain on this slate. If you’re rostering Adams in the captain, which I wholeheartedly recommend, you should probably get a bit different by leaving salary on the table or getting a lower-rostered piece in the lineup. If you roster Adams at captain and then five other players rostered at 25% you are going to have the same roster as a massive chunk of the field and even if you come in first place, you’ll be splitting it so many ways you may actually lose money. Davante seeing such a massive share of Aaron Rodgers targets makes him a difficult captain to roster, but if you think Rodgers spreads the ball around a little bit he can be a captain.
Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon are pretty good contrarian captains. This game is going to be one of the coldest of the season a lot of these guys are not going to want to tackle Dillon. Both backs have a solid ceiling for their price point, however with the Packers projected to run away with this game, it’s easy to tell a story where AJ Dillon gets increased usage just pounding the ball down the Vikings’ throat.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling is another contrarian captain with his average depth of target at nearly 19 yards. He now comes in a bit cheaper than Allen Lazard which is kind of wild, but that’s what happens when you’re forgotten about for a week. If this games ends up stud heavy, meaning Adams, Cook and Jefferson all have great, but not ceiling games you may need a mid tier captain like MVS.
Dalvin Cook will most likely be relied on in this game with Kirk Cousins. Provided the game doesn’t get out of hand early, Cook will see 20+ carries and a handful of targets. Maybe if they are playing from behind he sees more targets, but less carries. Either way, Cook will be popular because everyone will assume Mannion can’t support a wide receiver ceiling game and they’ll load up on Cook.
Justin Jefferson is really intriguing. I think his percent rostered will plummet without Cousins, but I also think that makes him a great play. It’s not out of the realm of possibilities for him to get to 10/100/1 with Mannion slinging him the ball. It will probably require a massive target share and potentially 15 targets. If they get down early it’s definitely a possibility. When slotting Jefferson in, it’s safe to assume the Packers crushed and pushed the Vikings to throw so get multiple Packers offensive players.
Flex
KJ Osborn has smashed when Adam Thielen is non in the lineup. Obviously it’s a bit thinner this week without Cousins. Osborn had a near 25% target and air yards share in the games he was the WR2 which he will be on Sunday night.
Allen Lazard makes sense as a piece in Rodgers captain lineups, but I would limit his exposure in lineups that has Adams or MVS at captain because ceiling games from those two would leave little room for a priced up Lazard to land in the optimal.
Tyler Conklin could potentially find his way into the optimal with a red zone touchdown, but I don’t think Mannion will support a big day from Conklin. The tight end on the other side of the ball Josiah DeGuara is a nice option as a true punt. He is athletic and can get some yards after the catch.I’ll probably play him exclusively in Rodgers captain lineups hoping he’s the recipient of one or two of several passing touchdowns.
Alexander Mattison is a tough button to click unless you are trying to handicap injuries because for his salary and role it will be hard for him to get into the optimal lineup with Dalvin Cook healthy.
There are a few dart throws on each team that can be the 6th man in if you don’t have much salary remaining after five spots are filled. CJ Ham is good for a few leak out targets per game and he could potentially catch a touchdown if those targets come in close. Marcedes Lewis will see some targets as well, though I do like DeGuara a bit more because he isn’t a catch and fall down tight end. Ihmir Smith-Marsette and Dede Westbrook will be the third and fourth options, however getting to them is super thin especially with Mannion at quarterback.
With how concentrated both offenses tend to be, the DSTs and Kickers project to be as good or better plays than most of the cheap options. If you’re someone who normally limits exposure to DST and K or makes rules to allow only one in a lineup, I would relax those restrictions for this game
Lineup Starters
Captain: Davante Adams
Flex: Aaron Rodgers, KJ Osborn, Packers DST
Captain: AJ Dillon
Flex: Packers DST, Justin Jefferson, Davante Adams
Captain: Aaron Rodgers
Flex: Davante Adams, Josiah DeGuara, KJ Osborn
Captain: Marquez Valdes-Scantling
Flex: Aaron Rodgers, Packers DST, KJ Osborn
Captain: Dalvin Cook
Flex: Aaron Rodgers, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Aaron Jones
Captain: Justin Jefferson
Flex: Sean Mannion, Davante Adams, Josiah DeGuara
