General Rules for Creating Showdown/MVP Lineups
Correlate with your Captain/MVP - Make sure you are creating a roster that makes sense with your 1.5x player.
On DraftKings, lean RB/WR in the captain. Though QB can finish as the optimal captain, it’s often overused by the field relative to its success rate. When you are using a QB in the captain, I like to use a lot of his pass-catchers. Because the likely scenario if a QB ends up as the captain on DK is he spreads his touchdowns around to multiple receivers and not one skill player had a ceiling game.
On FanDuel the MVP spot doesn’t cost you 1.5x salary which means you’re just trying to get the highest scoring player in that spot. Contrary to DK, it’s often the QB because of the scoring system. I would lean QB/RB on FD, but there are always exceptions to the rule.
Leave salary on the table - I’m not just talking about a few hundred. Don’t be afraid to leave a few thousand on the table. In a slate that has an extremely limited number of viable options, there is a much greater chance for lineup duplication. It may not seem like much of an issue, but it can decimate your expected value to put in lineups that are going to split with 500 other people.
Multi-enter if you can. Single-game slates have so much variance that the first play of the game can take you completely out of contention if you only have one lineup. It’s best to build a bunch of lineups (you don’t have to max enter) that concentrate on different game scripts and a handful of different correlated captains.
DST and Kickers, while not very exciting usually offer a solid floor for cheap. Especially in game scripts that go under expected point totals. I would only use at most two per lineup.
When creating single-game lineups, the most important part is creating correlated lineups according to a projected game script, and not pinpointing the exact five or six players who will score the most fantasy points on the slate.
Captain
Alvin Kamara has three games this season, out of ten played, that would land him as the optimal captain in a showdown slate. I think this matchup sets up well for Kamara, especially the fact that Ian Book is going to be playing quarterback. With Taysom Hill, the passing volume was somewhat capped and Hill also had his number called a bunch at the goal line. Kamara should own that role plus be in line for a few more receptions.
Despite the fact Ian Book won’t have power runs called for him at the goal line, he is still a mobile runner. As an avid college football and Notre Dame fan who has watched every snap of Book in his career, I think he may surprise people tonight in terms of fantasy performance if the Saints give him the opportunity. At his minimum price (for a quarterback) he basically he doesn’t need to have a smash game, just one above his median projection. He’s the top mid tier captain on the slate for me.
Jaylen Waddle owns a 29% target share and nearly a 40% air yards share over the last month of the season. I think you’re taking a pretty calculated risk not having him in your lineup tonight as at least a flex play because he’s floor is really high and he also has the potential for a ceiling game with the way Tua targets him.
Tua Tagovailoa could land in the captain spot if he spreads the ball around to his top targets in Waddle, Devante Parker, and Mike Gesicki. Tua also isn’t a statue quarterback like Big Ben, he can get out of the pocket and get some yards with his feet even if he isn’t considered a mobile/scrambling quarterback.
Flex
DeVante Parker and Mike Gesicki are second and third respectively in target share in this offense. The Dolphins have a fairly concentrated target distribution with Waddle seeing nearly 30% and Parker and Gesicki registering 20% each over the last month. They are both big red zone targets so they make sense in lineups projecting a good bit of scoring especially Tua captain lineups.
Myles Gaskin and Duke Johnson is going to be an interesting situation to monitor. Johnson out-snapped, out-touched, and out-produced Gaskin last week which makes me think he’d get the chance to do that again this week, however it could be that Gaskin wasn’t 100% and now he will be back to the lead role he’s played for much of the season. The matchup isn’t great to begin with so I’d temper expectations with both, and rotate them through your multi-entry pool.
Albert Wilson is on the COVID list, which leaves more for Isaiah Ford and Mack Hollins are decent dart throws as well. Ford operates in a similar capacity to Wilson so I’d limit lineups that contain both of them if Wilson is able to return, while Hollins operates in a similar capacity to Parker. I’d slot Hollins in when I didn’t have the salary for Parker.
Durham Smythe played 91% of snaps last week and although he didn’t see a ton of usage, anyone that’s on the field that much deserves consideration as he’ll have the chance at targets on run fakes near the end zone. Adam Shaheen looks like he’ll be back after a three game hiatus and he’s the absolute minimum salary and worth a flier in lineups you have less that $1000 left.
Mark Ingram is direct leverage off Alvin Kamara. Obviously if he has touchdown variance on his side that eats into Kamara’s bottom. It’s not out of the realm of possibilities that Kamara and Ingram split reps 50/50 with as they are around 60/40 and the game plan with Book under center could be to develop the power run game a bit more than normal.
Marquez Callaway and TreQuan Smith will be the main targets for Book in the Saints’ offense. Both receivers are in play as they’ll be on the field a lot. Callaway has the touchdown upside while Smith could be the benefactor of a catch-up game script reeling in volume targets.
Nick Vannett should be super busy in this game as Adam Trautman and Juwan Johnson are on the COVID list. He could see nearly all the snaps at tight end and has already proven himself to be a viable pass-catcher. This could be because Notre Dame always had a plethora of great tight ends, but Book loved targeting his tight ends in college.
The Saints cheap dart throw that I like the best is Lil’Jordan Humphrey. He’s a big bodied target that could see a big snap increase as he should be fully healthy and I don’t think the Saints will be able to run multiple TE sets as often as they’d like.
The Dolphins DST and Saints DST, along with each place kicker could be in play a bit more tonight than usual as the defensive units are a bit more solid than their offensive counterparts in this contest.
Lineup Starters
Captain: Alvin Kamara
Flex: Ian Book, Tua Tagovailoa, DeVante Parker
Captain: Alvin Kamara
Flex: Saints DST, Nick Vannett, Jaylen Waddle
Captain: Ian Book
Flex: Marquez Callaway, Nick Vannett, Mike Gesicki
Captain: Tua Tagovailoa
Flex: Jaylen Waddle, Mike Gesicki, TreQuan Smith
Captain: Jaylen Waddle
Flex: Dolphins DST, Tua Tagovailoa, Alvin Kamara
