General Rules for Creating Showdown/MVP Lineups
Correlate with your Captain/MVP - Make sure you are creating a roster that makes sense with your 1.5x player.
On DraftKings, lean RB/WR in the captain. Though QB can finish as the optimal captain, it’s often overused by the field relative to its success rate. When you are using a QB in the captain, I like to use a lot of his pass-catchers. Because the likely scenario if a QB ends up as the captain on DK is he spreads his touchdowns around to multiple receivers and not one skill player had a ceiling game.
On FanDuel the MVP spot doesn’t cost you 1.5x salary which means you’re just trying to get the highest scoring player in that spot. Contrary to DK, it’s often the QB because of the scoring system. I would lean QB/RB on FD, but there are always exceptions to the rule.
Leave salary on the table - I’m not just talking about a few hundred. Don’t be afraid to leave a few thousand on the table. In a slate that has an extremely limited number of viable options, there is a much greater chance for lineup duplication. It may not seem like much of an issue, but it can decimate your expected value to put in lineups that are going to split with 500 other people.
Multi-enter if you can. Single-game slates have so much variance that the first play of the game can take you completely out of contention if you only have one lineup. It’s best to build a bunch of lineups (you don’t have to max enter) that concentrate on different game scripts and a handful of different correlated captains.
DST and Kickers, while not very exciting usually offer a solid floor for cheap. Especially in game scripts that go under expected point totals. I would only use at most two per lineup.
When creating single-game lineups, the most important part is creating correlated lineups according to a projected game script, and not pinpointing the exact five or six players who will score the most fantasy points on the slate.
Captain
Kyler Murray, as always, ranks right up there with one of the best captain options on any showdown slate because of his dual threat ability. In his first game back he ran for 60 yards and two touchdowns, so there’s no hesitancy to escape the pocket due to the injury. When rostering him in the captain he can be used with one or multiple pass-catchers because he doesn’t have to bring along teammates when he scores fantasy points.
Cooper Kupp doesn’t need much explanation as he has dominated in virtually every game this season. He’s been targeted at a 30% clip. Obviously Kupp at captain really puts the clamps on what you can do at the flex. You’re basically giving up the ability to roster more than one other stud with Kupp at the captain. I personally think there’s enough value for that to happen, but I think it’s smart to have also have a portfolio consisting of Kupp in the flex and even excluded from lineups all together.
Sony Michel will again take the lead back role with Darrell Henderson out of the lineup. The Rams seem to not trust any backs behind Michel because he got the nearly every touch out of the backfield last week, so when he or Henderson are inactive, the other just dominates touch share. Michel hitting the optimal captain puts a ding in the odds any of the pass-catchers have a ceiling day, especially Kupp.
James Conner’s captaincy depends on the availability of Chase Edmonds. He is set to be a game-time decision. Though I don’t think he’s going to come back and immediately unseat Conner, his mere presence and share of touches makes Conner’s ceiling a bit lower. If Edmonds is out, feel free to fire up Conner. Conner in the captain takes away from pretty much everyone else on the offense. I can see rostering Kyler with Conner, but I would limit that combo.
Flex
Matthew Stafford can get into the captain spot, but I think he’ll be rostered a bit more than his likelihood of landing there. He’d need to spread the ball around to a host of receivers and the target share on the Rams is pretty concentrated. The fact he’s a statue in the pocket and doesn’t often add to his bottom line with rushing production has me keeping him mostly in the flex. I wouldn’t fault anyone for slotting him into the 1.5x slot, specifically on FanDuel
Van Jefferson has benefited greatly from the absence of Robert Woods. He’s even playing ahead of Odell in terms of snaps and target share. What Odell Beckham Jr. does have on Jefferson is he will have a higher depth of target and therefore a better opportunity to hit the optimal on one or two deep shots. They can be played together, but for the most part I keep most of my Jefferson and Beckham shares exclusive of each other.
Tyler Higbee hasn’t been impressive this year, but he can always benefit from some touchdown variance when the Rams are in the red zone. Ben Skowronek is a dart throw that probably correlates negatively with Higbee because he’s a big bodied receiver that can go up and win jump balls. They’ll probably be fighting for the same targets.
DeAndre Hopkins only had two targets last week, but if this game turns into a shootout, I think he’ll be a more integral part of the offense. Perhaps being another week removed from injury will help Hopkins. I like Hopkins in Murray captain lineups and in Rams heavy lineups, projected Hopkins to be one of the only beneficiaries on the Cardinals offense.
AJ Green has been getting the deep shots in this offense. He boasts a 12 yard aDOT and has an expected TD rate of .21 over the last month despite not scoring at all. Much like Hopkins
Christian Kirk and Zach Ertz work the middle of the field. Of any pass-catchers, I would keep these two separate. Rondale Moore is basically the jet sweep and bubble screen receiver resulting in a supremely low aDOT of less than 2 yards. I think Moore correlates poorly with the Cardinals running backs. Oddly, Moore and Ertz have produced in the same game, though I’m not sure that is sticky.
Lineup Starters
Captain: Kyler Murray
Flex: Christian Kirk, Odell Beckham, Tyler Higbee
Captain: Kyler Murray
Flex: DeAndre Hopkins, Rondale Moore, Van Jefferson
Captain: Cooper Kupp
Flex: Kyler Murray, Christian Kirk, Sony Michel
Captain: Cooper Kupp
Flex: Matthew Stafford, AJ Green, James Conner
Captain: Sony Michel
Flex: Kyler Murray, Rondale Moore, Zach Ertz
