General Rules for Creating Showdown/MVP Lineups
Correlate with your Captain/MVP - Make sure you are creating a roster that makes sense with your 1.5x player.
On DraftKings, lean RB/WR in the captain. Though QB can finish as the optimal captain, it’s often overused by the field relative to its success rate. When you are using a QB in the captain, I like to use a lot of his pass-catchers. Because the likely scenario if a QB ends up as the captain on DK is he spreads his touchdowns around to multiple receivers and not one skill player had a ceiling game.
On FanDuel the MVP spot doesn’t cost you 1.5x salary which means you’re just trying to get the highest scoring player in that spot. Contrary to DK, it’s often the QB because of the scoring system. I would lean QB/RB on FD, but there are always exceptions to the rule.
Leave salary on the table - I’m not just talking about a few hundred. Don’t be afraid to leave a few thousand on the table. In a slate that has an extremely limited number of viable options, there is a much greater chance for lineup duplication. It may not seem like much of an issue, but it can decimate your expected value to put in lineups that are going to split with 500 other people.
Multi-enter if you can. Single-game slates have so much variance that the first play of the game can take you completely out of contention if you only have one lineup. It’s best to build a bunch of lineups (you don’t have to max enter) that concentrate on different game scripts and a handful of different correlated captains.
DST and Kickers, while not very exciting usually offer a solid floor for cheap. Especially in game scripts that go under expected point totals. I would only use at most two per lineup.
When creating single-game lineups, the most important part is creating correlated lineups according to a projected game script, and not pinpointing the exact five or six players who will score the most fantasy points on the slate.
Captain
Lamar Jackson is the classic type of quarterback you can play in cash games because he can hit his ceiling without a matching ceiling game from a pass-catcher. With all the injuries the Ravens have at the running back position, there is a good chance he gets his number called more often on Monday night, especially at the goal line.
Ty’Son Williams makes for a nice captain play as well. No one can be certain what the Ravens will do in terms of a running back rotation, but every indication Harbaugh has given the media suggests they believe he can carry the load. Maybe down the road Murray and Bell get some run after they get practices under their belt, but I can’t imagine they get a ton of work tonight. I could be wrong but practicing the mesh point of the read option is intricate. I could see the Ravens being more comfortable with Williams in the opener.
I pride myself on not listing every player that is going to step on the field as a possible captain to cover my bases, so to speak. The Raiders side of the ball isn’t very enticing, I’ll be honest. Darren Waller is the de facto WR1. As we’ve seen in years past, he can put up a 10 catch, 100-yard, and a score performance like an alpha wide receiver. I also think there is merit in playing the very cheap Hunter Renfrow at captain as well, albeit sparingly. His inexpensive captain price allows for a stud heavy flex build. Oftentimes if multiple high dollar players have big games, it’s a cheap player that needs to be in the captain to get the studs in your lineup.
Flex
Mark Andrews could dominate this game and score multiple touchdowns. The problem is the Ravens aren’t a volume passing team, so he’s unlikely to rack up a Waller-type stat line. Marquise Brown can hit a home run on any play so he’s a viable flex as well. Sammy Watkins is a bit pricey for me, though he is known for smash Week 1s. I wouldn’t fault anyone for throwing a Watkins dart, but I’d much rather do so with guys like Devan Duvernay, James Proche or Tylan Wallace. Duvernay is probably my favorite flier flex as he’s a high catch rate/low aDot type of receiver.
On the other side of the ball Bryan Edwards and Henry Ruggs will be on the outside for Derek Carr. I don’t love the prospects of the Raiders passing game because the Ravens’ secondary is scary. So I’ll probably be underweight on Derek Carr and Josh Jacobs because those two would indicate that I think the Raiders are successful on offense and that’s not the game script I want to count on. Kenyan Drake would be my preferred RB flier for the Raiders because he brings the PPR upside and the ability to break chunk runs more than Jacobs.
Lineup Starters
Captain/MVP: Lamar Jackson
Flex: Mark Andrews, Darren Waller, James Proche
Captain/MVP: Lamar Jackson
Flex: Ty’Son Williams, Henry Ruggs, Kenyan Drake
Captain/MVP: Lamar Jackson
Flex: Mark Andrews, Bryan Edwards, Bal DST
Captain/MVP: Ty’Son Williams
Flex: Lamar Jackson, Hunter Refrow, Darren Waller
Captain/MVP: Darren Waller
Flex: Lamar Jackson, Ty’Son Williams, Devin Duvernay
