Super Bowl DFS Showdown

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Super Bowl DFS Showdown

  • Correlate with your Captain/MVP - Make sure you are creating a roster that makes sense with your 1.5x player.

  • How to implement for the SuperBowl

  • Quarterbacks in the captain spot will require multiple pass-catchers in this game because they aren’t running threats. You can set rules to include at at least 2 WR/TE/RB

  • Wide receivers in the captain usually limit the amount of their teammate pass catchers that appear in the same lineup

  • On DraftKings, lean RB/WR in the captain. Though QB can finish as the optimal captain, it’s often overused by the field relative to its success rate. When you are using a QB in the captain, I like to use a lot of his pass-catchers. Because the likely scenario if a QB ends up as the captain on DK is he spreads his touchdowns around to multiple receivers and not one skill player had a ceiling game.

  • How to implement for the SuperBowl

  • With an influx of casuals playing this week, we may see Stafford and Burrow a bit more rostered than normal. Obviously there are plenty of wide receivers we can roster like Kupp, Chase, Higgins, and Odell

  • Joe Mixon, and especially the Rams backs, could be great contrarian options at captain.

  • On FanDuel the MVP spot doesn’t cost you 1.5x salary which means you’re just trying to get the highest scoring player in that spot. Contrary to DK, it’s often the QB because of the scoring system. I would lean QB/RB on FD, but there are always exceptions to the rule.

  • How to implement for the SuperBowl

  • On DraftKings, mid-tier options like Tyler Boyd or Van Jefferson could be the optimal captain because of the salary savings on the 1.5x

  • On FanDuel, do not over think it you’re only looking for the highest scoring player in the flex.

  • Leave salary on the table - I’m not just talking about a few hundred. Don’t be afraid to leave a few thousand on the table. In a slate that has an extremely limited number of viable options, there is a much greater chance for lineup duplication. It may not seem like much of an issue, but it can decimate your expected value to put in lineups that are going to split with 500 other people.

  • How to implement for the SuperBowl

  • This one is a bit self-explanatory, however there isn’t a slew of cheap options to create lineups that have a ton of salary on the table

  • The best way to leave salary on the table for this game will most likely be to have a cheaper captain

  • Multi-enter if you can. Single-game slates have so much variance that the first play of the game can take you completely out of contention if you only have one lineup. It’s best to build a bunch of lineups (you don’t have to max enter) that concentrate on different game scripts and a handful of different correlated captains.

  • DST and Kickers, while not very exciting usually offer a solid floor for cheap. Especially in game scripts that go under expected point totals. I would only use at most two per lineup.

  • How to implement for the SuperBowl

  • In this game specifically, both kickers and defenses are in play. Burrow has been taking sacks at an alarming rate and Stafford can be loose with the ball.

  • When creating single-game lineups, the most important part is creating correlated lineups according to a projected game script, and not pinpointing the exact five or six players who will score the most fantasy points on the slate.

  • How to implement for the SuperBowl

  • I am going to make a caveat for Rams-Bengals being that there isn’t going to be so many lineups and there isn’t much variation in either team’s offense. I think it’s smart to get a bit negatively correlated in one spot. For example:

  • Quarterback with opposing defense

  • Two RBs from the same team

Correlation

I looked back at each team’s games this season to determine which players correlated positively or negatively with each other. Below are the top players from each team their positive and negative correlations

Cooper Kupp

  • Positive - Stafford, Gay

  • Negative - Akers

Matthew Stafford

  • Positive - Beckham, Henderson, Akers

  • Negative - Michel

Odell Beckham

  • Positive - Henderson, Akers, Stafford

  • Negative - Higbee (a positive if he is out)

Joe Burrow

  • Positive - Chase, Higgins, Uzomah

  • Negative - Bengals DST

Joe Mixon

  • Positive - Higgins, McPherson

  • Negative - Boyd, Perine

Ja’mar Chase

  • Positive - Burrow, Uzomah

  • Negative - Bengals DST

Tee Higgins

  • Positive - Burrow, Mixon

  • Negative - McPherson

Game Scripts

Shootout

In a shootout there are pretty much all combinations on the table, even DST. When creating lineups for a game script that includes both teams scoring a load of points, I would make it a point to include the quarterbacks and running backs. Both positions thrive on scoring touchdowns. You’ll want to have at least two offensive players from each team as it usually involves multiple players on each team hitting their ceiling projections.

Shootout Lineup Starters

Captain: Cooper Kupp

Flex: Matthew Stafford, Matt Gay, Tee Higgins

Captain: JaMar Chase

Flex: Joe Burrow, CJ Uzomah, Odell Beckham Jr.

Captain: Matt Stafford

Flex: Odell Beckham, Cam Akers, Tyler Boyd

Captain: Joe Burrow

Flex: Jamar Chase, Tee Higgins, Kendall Blanton

Captain: Joe Mixon

Flex: Tee Higgins, Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp

Slugfest

The slugfest-type game would entail a defensive battle that winds up under the game total, sometimes drastically under. In this type of game script, the main targets in this type of game script are the players that can score fantasy points without touchdowns. Pass-catchers, kickers, and defenses show up more often in lineups where touchdowns are at a premium. It makes sense that if touchdowns are not being scored, receptions, field goals, and sacks/turnovers will be the main point accumulation.

Slugfest Lineup Starters

Captain: Cooper Kupp

Flex: Matthew Stafford, Rams DST, Tee Higgins

Captain: Tee Higgins

Flex: Joe Burrow, Odell Beckham, Kendall Blanton

Captain: JaMar Chase

Flex: Joe Burrow, Evan McPherson, Cooper Kupp

Captain: Rams DST

Flex: Cooper Kupp, Sony Michel, JaMar Chase

Lopsided Victory

The edge to creating a lineup when one team does most of the scoring is to create lopsided lineups, and by that I mean five players from one team with one from the other. It can go both ways, using the underdog team or favorite, but either way there won’t be many 5-1 lineups.

Lopsided Lineup Starters

Captain: Jamar Chase

Flex: Joe Burrow, Tyler Boyd, Samaje Perine, Cooper Kupp

Captain: Matthew Stafford

Flex: Cooper Kupp, Kendall Blanton, Cam Akers, Tee Higgins

Captain: Joe Burrow

Flex: JaMar Chase, Tyler Boyd, Evan McPherson, Odell Beckham

Last Man In

The most difficult part of creating showdown lineups are the last man in. If you’re reading this article you know about Joe Burrow, JaMar Chase, Joe Mixon, Cooper Kupp, and Matthew Stafford. The edge lies in pinpointing some of the deeper plays that may land in the optimal lineup. Here are my favorite options from each team:

Rams

Kendall Blanton - The backup tight end to Tyler Higbee will be on the field a ton and is a solid pass-catching tight end. In relief of Higbee in the Conference Championship Blanton racked up 11 fantasy points which would be good enough to get him in an optimal lineup.

Brycen Hopkins - Hopkins was inactive against the 49ers, but that was because Higbee was healthy to start the game. Hopkins is extremely cheap and if multiple studs smash, Hopkins could be the absolute punt you need in your lineup if he has a one catch for one touchdown line.

Ben Skowronek - I think Skowronek is going to be extremely over-rostered. He nearly caught a bomb touchdown against the 49ers, but that’s because he was thrust into the WR3 role. I don’t know if he’ll see the field as much as many think, He should be in your player pool, but I’ll be underweight on him.

Darrell Henderson - Not an unknown, but only $1,600 on DraftKings because of the IR tag. Sean McVay mentioned he has a good chance to play. If he is active, he is a solid leverage play.

Bengals

Samaje Perine - Perine has been getting a lot of the third down work and the obvious passing situations. I like adding him to Burrow captain lineups and Bengals onslaughts. He was utilized successfully against the Chiefs racking up 43 yards and a touchdown through the air.

Drew Sample - CJ Uzomah looks like he’ll be good to go, but there is always a chance he is limited or is re-injured. Sample is priced up as if Uzomah is not returning, which means he’ll be one of the lower rostered players on the entire slate. I don’t mind a few darts.

Pat began playing fantasy football 20 years ago. In 2012 he started the fantasy football site FantasyCouncil.com which opened the door for him to become a DFS contributor at several sites and is the newest DFS Contributor for Fantasy Points.

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