Week 4 was another strong week for this article, so that’s nice.
I profiled Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen, and gave love to Jalen Hurts and Taylor Heinicke, and even Mac Jones was worth well over 3x his cost, as predicted. There were buzzkills, however, like Tom Brady and Derek Carr, and I got hosed by Jimmy Garoppolo‘s injury.
The RBs calls were strong, with Derrick Henry, Cordarrelle Patterson, David Montgomery, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Leonard Fournette, and Zack Moss. I did have Sony Michel in there, and he crushed us with a key fumble and he was never heard from again in the game (of course, he scored this week).
There were some good WR plays covered, like Deebo Samuel, Terry McLaurin, Corey Davis,
DK Metcalf, and Stefon Diggs, and Jakobi Meyers. Calvin Ridley was only okay, and we all got hosed with Odell Beckham wide open for a sure TD but he was thrown a bad ball. I also swung and missed on cheap options Jaylen Waddle, Zach Pascal, and Terrace Marshall.
At TE, I did give a lot of love to Dawson Knox, and that was a homerun. Darren Waller was okay, but I guessed wrong on the Chiefs, and listed Travis Kelce, and Logan Thomas got hurt. Tommy Tremble was a no-show, so TE wasn’t great.
After a rough first two weeks, I’m looking to make it three weeks in a row of, at worst, solidness.
Per usual, when choosing these players, I’m looking at our projections, which I built, and plucking out the best values and plays with an emphasis on values, ROI, matchup, etc.
London Game
Jamison Crowder (NYJ, vs. Atl — $4900 DK, $6000 FD) — He’s a value on DK, top-12, but only top-25 on FD. Atlanta’s top slot corner, who is good, is out. I can see it coming a mile away after a breakout game last week: Crowder may be going off (for him) across the pond, and it wouldn’t be the first time he’s done that. Zach Wilson loves throwing inside, and the TEs haven’t stepped up.
Quarterbacks
Note: I’m ranking them in order of my favorite plays, mainly for cash games.
Trey Lance (SF, at Ari — $5600 DK, $6100 FD) — He’ll be popular, chalky, whatever. I don’t care. He’s the #1 value on both sites so avoid at your own risk. At least on DK, I view a 3X return as a disappointment, which says a lot. We all love the matchup for Deebo Samuel, and their top corner, Byron Murphy, is out.
Justin Fields (Chi, at LV — $5200 DK, $6400 FD) — He’s a top-5 option on both sites, but a better value on DK, where he’s the #2 value. The Raiders are down two of their top three outside CBs, and they can be had for big plays.
Joe Burrow (Cin, vs. GB — $6100 DK, $7000 FD) — A top-4 value on both sites, I’m all in on Burrow this week, at home, playing extremely well, and getting Tee Higgins back against a very beatable secondary without Jaire Alexander, one of the best corners in the league.
Jacoby Brissett (Mia, at TB — $5200 DK, $6300 FD) — He may be a get-what-you-pay-for guy this week (and you’re not paying much), but he’s a top-12 value on both sites because the matchup and situation is extremely conducive to fantasy production. They are 7.5 point home dogs, and the Bucs are getting absolutely slayed by opposing passing games, plus their top-2 corners are out. Frankly, I’d be stunned if he didn’t produce at least 3X return and that’s all you can ask for from anyone.
Not the best values, but I do like them this week:
Kirk Cousins (Min, vs. Det — $6500 DK, $7500 FD) — He’s the #7 value on both sites and we know it’s coming. Kirkie won’t have a healthy Dalvin Cook, and while they may still run all over Detroit, their secondary is begging for them to be challenged downfield by Justin Jefferson, so a blowup game for JJ may be coming.
Daniel Jones (NYG, vs. Dal — $6100 DK, $7000 FD) — A better value on DK (#6) than FD (#11), he’s looking good no matter what, despite the higher salary. The Cowboys play man coverage at the eight-highest percentage in this league, and I always like Dimes’ ability to produce on the ground vs. man. To that point, they are giving up over 5 FPG to QBs in terms of rushing. Trevon Diggs is great, but he can only cover one man (Kenny Golladay) and Kadarious Toney looked awesome last week, as did John Ross.
Tom Brady (TB, vs. Det — $7400 DK, $8400 FD) — He’s not a value on either site, but I do like him in this matchup. The Dolphins play more man coverage than only one other team in the NFL, so Brady will know what to expect and will simply have to use his progression-reading skills to isolate the open man, which will likely be Antonio Brown for big plays.
Running Backs
Derrick Henry (Ten, vs. Det — $9000 DK, $10,400 FD) — Still a top-2 value on both sites despite their issues, and it does look good for AJ Brown, which is huge. Popular? Yes. Extremely productive? Also yes.
Cordarrelle Patterson (Atl, at NYJ (London) — $5900 DK, $7,500 FD) — Uh, yeah, they need him. I’m not entirely convinced the Falcons can effectively feed Kyle Pitts the ball to help bail out their offense, but that’s all Patterson’s been doing, so keep going there.
Damien Harris (NE, vs. Det — $5500 DK, $6,500 FD) — A top-4 value on both sites, which is a little scary on this team. Some weeks, he just flops. But if he can’t produce in this matchup, then he can never be trusted. Said another way, if you’re ever going to use him, this is the week to do it. If he can get 1-2 catches again, that helps.
Damien Williams (Chi, at LV — $5500 DK, $5800 FD) — A top-3 value on both sites, he’s looking at bellcow usage in the running and passing game and it’s a good matchup. Khalil Herbert is intriguing as hell, and he will be a factor, but we’re not yet worrying about his presence.
Samaje Perine (Cin, vs. GB — $4000 DK) — It may not work out, and if it does it probably won’t be amazeballs, but he has underrated receiving ability, and he certainly should have chances to score as they consistently move the ball. All bets are off with him if Joe Mixon ends up being active, however. Mixon has yet to be ruled out as of Saturday morning.
Not the best values, but I do like them this week:
James Robinson (Jax, vs. Ten — $6000 DK, $7400 FD) — He’s still a decent value on both sites, top-10 on both. It’s not an amazing matchup by the numbers, but the game should be close, and he’s looked great the last 2-3 weeks. He also averaged a solid 16.6 FPG in this matchup last year with 6.0 YPC on the ground (14/84.5) and he caught 7 balls.
Wide Receivers
Justin Jefferson (Min, vs. Det — $8000 DK, $7700 FD) — A top-3 value on both sites, he matches up to their scheme better than Adam Theilen, and we could be looking at multiple big plays against this terrible secondary that gives them up left and right.
Ja’Marr Chase (Cin, vs. GB — $5800 DK, $7300 FD) and Tyler Boyd (Cin, vs. GB — $5300 DK, $6300 FD) and Tee Higgins (Cin, vs. GB — $5000 DK, $6700 FD) — These guys are all over the map in terms of values on the two sites, but Higgins and Chase are top-9 values on DK with Boyd at #21 in terms of values and they are all in the 27-33 range on FD, which is okay, but not optimal value. It really is a tough call as to who the best option is, but I’d say Chase has the most upside and is also safe, and Higgins is the cheapest with the best bet for the best ROI. But Boyd arguably has the best matchup. I like all three as plays and I’m confident at least two of them will come through.
Kadarius Toney (NYG at Dal — $4000 DK, $5300 FD) — This is the dawning of the age of Kadarius, and he looked great last week. He’s a top-3 value on DK. Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton are out again, so it’s looking good again for a nice role and his matchup is very beatable inside vs. slot corner Jourdan Lewis, plus top corner Trevon Diggs is likely to lock up Ken Golladay.
Allen Robinson (Chi, at LV — $5500 DK, $6100 FD) — He’s a top-13 option on both sites and I like his chances with two of the Raiders’ top-3 CBs out this week. He’s in the slot about 40% of the time to avoid Casey Hayward, so a blowup game could be forthcoming.
Marvin Jones (Jax, vs. Ten — $5700 DK, $6600 FD) — Titans secondary and pass defense is brutal right now and gives up 51 FPG to WRs, and no more DJ Chark means he’ll see targets galore.
Antonio Brown (TB, vs. Mia — $5200 DK, $6500 FD) — A better value on DK (#5), he’s top-12 on both sites. We should see top corner Xavien Howard on Mike Evans, so AB could make 1-2 big plays on a guy like Byron Jones, who has not been good. This secondary gives up big plays, and AB will look to atone for dropping a longer TD pass last week.
Darnell Mooney (Chi, vs. LV — $4700 DK, $5600 FD) — A top-3 value on both sites, and while it’s fair to be skeptical, his usage is fantastic and his abilities look to be getting unlocked by Justin Fields, along with OC Bill Lazor, who has taken over the offense. The Raiders are down two corners but they still have Casey Hayward, who has been great this year, but I still think Mooney is priced so affordably that I’m willing to bet he can beat the veteran at least one more time and/or shake free of him in coverage enough times to make 1-2 big plays.
Laviska Shenault (Jax, vs. Ten — $4800 DK, $5800 FD) — Titans are especially bad covering the slot, giving up the most PPG to inside receivers, per SIS. And his role is expanding with DJ Chark out. And he’s cheap.
Jalen Waddle (Mia, at TB — $4800 DK, $5800 FD) — DaVante Parker has a hammy issue, and the Bucs are allowing the second-most FPG to slot receivers. Waddle came up small last week, but he could be peppered with targets in this one against a depleted and extremely generous secondary and pass defense.
Randall Cobb (GB, at Cin — $4000 DK) — DK only, since it’s all about the catches for Cobb. He was off the radar just one week ago, but very much on it now, after a huge Week 4. No one else is stepping up in the passing game so far, so it’s probably Cobb time for Aaron Rodgers, who pushed for Cobb to join the team. I expect a shootout, so Rodgers may have to throw it 40+ times, and the Bengals give up the 11th-most FPG to slot receivers.
Not the best values, but I do like them this week:
Deebo Samuel (SF, at Ari — $7100 DK, $7700 FD) — I’m not convinced the Cardinals secondary is all that, far from it. They’re also down a top corner in Byron Murphy and our guy Wes Huber likes my guy Deebo this week coverage-wise.
Davante Adams (GB, at Cin — $8200 DK, $8200 FD) — He’s actually a top-3 value on FD, but he’s buried on the DK value list. Still, are we really worrying about Trae Waynes, Chidobe Awuzie, and Mike Hilton? With Aaron Rodgers throwing it? No, we’re not, and this could be a shootout.
CeeDee Lamb (Dal, at NYG — $6200 DK, $6900 FD) — He’s the #9 value on FD and #20 on DK. James Bradberry and the Giants have given up big plays this year, so I’m expecting multiple deep shots to Lamb this week.
Tight Ends
Mike Gesicki (Mia, vs, TB — $2900 DK) — This guy does drive me nuts with his volatility, but when he hits, he can hit big, and this is a tremendous spot. Gesicki has 16+ FP in Jacoby Brissett’s first two starts, and he has a combined 15/143/1 receiving the last two weeks. Patriots TEs combined for 7/46/2 receiving last week, and the Buccaneers are giving up the third-most FPG (17.5) to TEs this season. DaVante Parker is iffy with a shoulder injury and a late-week hammy issue. If he’s out or limited, that likely means some more looks for Gesicki. Also, S Antoine Winfield is out, which can only help.
Not the best values, but I do like them this week:
Travis Kelce (KC, vs. Buf — $7600 DK, $8200 on FD) — He’s way down the board on DK, but actually #2 on FD. Regardless, I guess wrong with him last week, but you hit this Bills defense with the TE, even if LB Matt Milano goes. Basically, I think it’s a Kelce game.
Primetime Players
Dawson Knox (Buf, at KC — $2900 DK) — Is Knox a thing? We’re going to find out, but all signs say yes. His FPG has increased every week, and he’s clearly earned Josh Allen’s trust.
Knox ran a route on 82% of Buffalo’s dropbacks last week, so he’s a fulltime player. He has now scored in eight of his last 13 games with nine TDs total in that span. (postseason included). One of those performances includes his 6/42/1 receiving against the Chiefs in the AFC Championship. KC is giving up 6.8/87 per game to TEs so far, which is a lot.
Marquise Brown (Bal, vs. Ind — $5800 DK, $6800 FD) — I better value on FD, his matchup looks great on paper. I was hoping he would play against shaky CB Rock Ya Sin, but he’s out. But he was starting, so we assume he’s better than his replacement.
Mo Allie-Cox (Ind, at Bal — $2900 DK) — This is on the low-end but it looks like the Colts are going to get MAC going now. He had a season-high 69% snap share last week (Jack Doyle had a season-low 30%), and MAC was second on the team in targets with five (16% share) with 3/42/2 receiving with two red-zone scores against the Dolphins. The Ravens have given up the most FPG (20.7) to TEs this season. It seems like all their passing TDs come in the middle of the field, which bodes well for MAC, as we saw last week.
