Week 10 wasn’t much better than the previous 2-3 weeks, so it’s been a rough stretch in terms of being predictive. That’s the case in the gambling realm, with upsets galore, and it’s even worse for us with scoring down and more teams spreading the ball around a lot, often unwisely. I’m just going to keep on trusting the process of looking at the numbers, and the matchups, and the cost of these players.
The QBs were headlined by Dak Prescott (QB2), but Justin Herbert (QB15) and Teddy Bridgewater (QB2) weren’t great and Carson Wentz (QB25) was bad.
At RB, it’s easy to roll with Jonathan Taylor (RB5) right now, and I did, plus D’Ernest Johnson (RB6) and Mark Ingram (RB9) were nice inclusions. Dalvin Cook (RB10), Austin Eckler (RB19), Najee Harris (RB14), and James Conner (RB18) were all solid but a little underwhelming.
The WR position was once again volatile, but we did get big weeks from Justin Jefferson (WR7, CeeDee Lamb (WR3), and Cooper Kupp (WR6). There were a bunch of entries that were only okay, though, with Mike Evans (WR21), Diontae Johnson (WR20), Michael Pittman (WR31), and Jerry Jeudy (WR35). Mike Williams (WR45) would have been in that mix if he didn’t drop a TD pass. Brandon Aiyuk (WR53) didn’t get it done and AJ Brown (WR76) just flopped.
Finally, TE was so-so with Travis Kelce (TE1) coming through on the high and Tyler Conklin (TE4) on the low end. Noah Fant (TE10) was okay, but Ricky Seals-Jones (TE23) got hurt and missed out on a top-12 finish and the Bills just didn’t need Dawson Knox (TE35). Also, Darren Waller (TE20) just missed a TD or else he would have been a top-8 producer.
Quarterbacks
Note: I’m ranking them in order of my favorite plays, mainly for cash games.
Tua Tagovailoa (Mia, at NYJ — $5500 DK, $7000 FD) — He’s the top value on DK, and the ninth-best value on FD. It’s fair to say Tua is a matchup guy. When the matchup is good, he can excel, and when it’s bad, he usually has a tough time. Tua posted 22+ FP in his first two games back from a rib injury in Weeks 6-7 against the Falcons and Jaguars, and the Jets have given up multiple TD passes, 255+ passing yards, and 21+ FP in five straight. He is dealing with the fractured finger on his throwing hand and sore ribs, but delivering 3x value at his low price should still be fairly easy as long as he’s not seriously limited.
Derek Carr (LV, vs. Cin — $5900 DK, $7200 FD) — He’s only a top-11 value on both sites (#6 on DK), but when Greg Cosell and Wes Huber sign off on a matchup and a play, I’m also in, and those guys both like Carr this week. Carr has 2 TD passes in 7-of-9 games and is averaging career-highs in yards per game (314.0) and YPA (8.1). The Bengals are giving up the 10th-most passing yards per game (274.6) and a struggling Baker Mayfield averaged 10.4 YPA against the Bengals in Week 9, their last game. With the potent Bengals offense capable of making this a shootout and a nice expected total over over 50 points, Carr’s a good bet to approach 20 FP this week.
Not the best values, but I do like them this week:
Patrick Mahomes (KC, vs. Dal — $7600 DK, $8300 FD) — He’s actually the top value on FD, but far down the board on DK. Mahomes made dramatic improvement in his play last week, basically staying patient and taking what the defense gave him, and it resulted in a season-best 36.2 FP last week. The Cowboys have been stingy, but they do play more man coverage than all but 2-3 other teams, and if they try that against KC, we do not think they have a corner who can cover Tyreek Hill, who looked great last week. CB Trevon Diggs has actually given up a lot of plays, and their other corners are beatable for sure. The Cowboys have been giving up the eighth-most yards per play (5.8) while facing a bunch of up-and-down offenses since Week 2 (Eagles, Panthers, Giants, Patriots, Vikings, Broncos, Falcons). With an expected total north of 55 points, Mahomes looks like a good play right along with Tyreek.
Aaron Rodgers (GB, at Min — $7000 DK, $7700 FD) — He’s the #7 value on FD, but only the 17th-best value on FD. He’s a complicated fella who failed to throw a TD pass last week after registering multiple TDs in seven straight, so he’s due. Rodgers shredded the Vikings for 755 yards and 7 TDs in two meetings last season, and the Vikings, while healthier on defense for this one, are still vulnerable. They will get Patrick Peterson back this week, but between him and Cameron Dantzler, I think they will get rocked by Davante Adams, especially if they try him out in man coverage. If they go zone, he can nickel and dime them to death with a 35.4% target share the last two weeks. The only downside is if the surging Packers defense plays well and limits the Vikings, but the game is in Minnesota, which helps.
Running Backs
AJ Dillon (GB, at Min — $62000 DK, $7000 FD) — He’s not cheap on either site, but despite a conservative projection by me, he’s still the top value on both sites. Dillon was a guy I pushed hard as a great pick in the 10th round this summer, and at least 60% of my opinion was based on his upside if Aaron Jones misses time, which he tends to do. Jones played on 46% of the snaps last week with Dillon at 49%, and Dillon still got 23 touches, 128 total yards, and 26.8 fantasy points. The only other active RB on the roster is Patrick Taylor, who played on 3 snaps last week and has 2 total touches in his career, so we’re looking at at least 80% of the snaps this week. He’s up against a Vikings defense that ranks 10th-worst in YPC allowed (4.48), 8th-worst in rushing FPG allowed (14.8), and one his QB crushed last season.
Antonio Gibson (WFT, vs. — $5900 DK, $6700 FD) — He’s the seventh-best value on both sites. I don’t feel like recommending Gibson is chasing points, and I do think that he’s still sneaky, despite 2 TDs last week. At this point, I think the Panthers defense is stronger against the pass than the run, and I also think the game will be close enough to afford Gibson another 20+ touches, if his injured shin cooperates. With a lead last week, Gibson saw a season-high 24 carries on a 63% snap share against the Bucs, and I think the FT will play inspired ball for their coach Ron Rivera, who was dumped two years ago by the Panthers.
Myles Gaskin (Mia, vs. — $5700 DK, $5200 FD) — He’s sketchy as hell, but also an obvious play in such a great matchup and he’s a top-8 value on both sites. Gaskin, or Mr. Every-Other-Week, has alternated double-digit FP performances with non-double-digit FP performance in every game this season. Right on cue, he’s set to do well this weekend, but based on the matchup. This Jets defense was giving up an amazing 45+ FPG to RBs the previous four weeks going into Week 10, and then they gave up 4 TDs to Bills RBs last week. Now they’re giving up 47 FPG to RBs in their last four, including 6.2 YPC and 6.8/72/.8 per game to RBs in the passing game. Gaskin has 58% of the snaps or more in four straight with 18.8 touches per game in that span. Over the last two weeks, Gaskin has handled 35 of 41 carries (85%), 9 of 11 targets (82%), and 5 of 5 opportunities inside the 10-yard-line (100%). The team DID activate Duke Johnson from the practice squad, and he may get a shot. But if Duke is a real threat with zero touches in 2021 and snaps for the Dolphins, it would be completely ridiculous.
Jeff Wilson (SF, at Jax — $5100 DK, $5500 FD) — He’s the second-best value on FD, and top-6 on both sites. With Elijah Mitchell doubtful, Wilson is an obvious candidate for 20+ touches in this backfield. Mitchell had a season-high 27 carries last week despite playing only 53% of the snaps. Wilson should be the top runner AND the top receiver with JaMycal Hasty OUT with an ankle injury. The Jaguars are giving up just 3.7 YPC but they’re giving up the fourth-most rushing TDs per game (1.0) to RBs, and the 49ers are 6.5 road favorites against the hapless Jaguars, who have been held to fewer than 20 points in five of their nine games and have not scored 23 points yet this year. Wilson had 21 targets in his final five games last year, and he actually scored a receiving TD in his final two games in 2020. Unless Trey Sermon emerges from the grave (AKA Kyle Shanahan’s doghouse) and gets a lot of chances and does well with him, Wilson should be very busy.
Not the best values, but I do like them this week:
Joe Mixon (Cin, at LV — $7600 DK, $7600 FD) — He’s a much better value on FD, but down the board a bit on DK. He’s definitely pricey on DK, and 23+ FP is a lot for him to truly come through, but then again Mixon has 25+ FP in three of his last four, thanks in large part to his sudden involvement in the passing game. He has 4+ catches and 45+ receiving yards in his three recent big games, and Darrel Williams just ripped the Raiders for 11/43 rushing and 9/101/1 receiving for 29.4 FP last week. Mixon is running 21.3 routes per game over his last four outings, which is Alvin Kamara-like.
Wide Receiver
Michael Gallup (Dal, at KC — $4200 DK, $5400 FD) — Given the situation with Amari Cooper out, that does cloud the roles of their remaining receivers, so I think it’s best to look at the incredible affordable Gallup as the better play over the expensive CeeDee Lamb. Cooper’s target share sits at 20% for the season, so Gallup’s should be at least that high. Gallup posted 3/42 receiving on five targets on only 51% of the snaps last week, but he should be up over 90% this week.
Rashad Bateman (Bal, vs. — $4500 DK, $5800 FD) — He’s the third-best value on FD, and top-9 on both sites. There's some risk here with Lamar Jackson still ill as of Saturday (check reports Sunday morning/afternoon), but Marquise Brown missed most of the week of practice with a thigh issue, and Bateman posted 6/80 receiving on eight targets last week with Sammy Watkins back and he ran twice as many routes as Sammy. I’d expect Bateman to get a fair number of snaps across from CB Kindle Vildor, who has been seriously picked on this year.
Darnell Mooney (Chi, vs. Bal — $5200 DK, $6000 FD) — He’s a top-7 value on both sites. Mooney has been the #1 WR here all year based on role and production, and with Justin Fields showing signs of life lately, Mooney has put up 12+ FP in three of his last four, and he’s coming off a season-best 20.6 FP before their Week 10 bye. He’s even getting involved as a runner with a 15-yard rushing TD in his last game. The Ravens are giving up a generous 14.8 YPR to WRs, and even the Dolphins had three different WRs reach double-digit FP last week. Mooney is looking at 10+ targets with Allen Robinson doubtful, and he’s fast and savvy enough to overcome the increased attention he’ll receive.
Not the best values, but I do like them this week:
Tyreek Hill (KC, vs. Dal — $8200 DK, $8500 FD) — Tyreek has fewer than 100 receiving yards in six straight games, but also double-digit targets in five of those six games. As stated above, we do not think the Cowboys have a corner who can man up on Hill the whole game, so they will likely play a lot more zone than usual, which is a recipe for another 10+ catch performance. Kadarius Toney went for 10/189 in this matchup back in Week 5 and they’re allowing a generous 14.7 YPR to WRs. Dallas may feel strong and put Trevon Diggs on Hill and it would be quite the battle, one Diggs would likely lose a few times.
Davante Adams (GB, at Min — $8400 DK, $8400 FD) — He’s actually the #2 value on FD, but down the board on DK. We don’t know if the Vikings will try to go man-to-man in this one, or if they’ll revert to zone knowing they don’t have a corner who can contain Adams individually. In my experience with Adams, when this is the case, he eats. He certainly ate in this matchup last year, averaging 14 targets, 10.5 catches, 104 yards, and 2.5 TDs PER GAME.
Jaylen Waddle (Mia, vs. — $5600 DK, $6700 FD) — He’s only the 19th-best value on FD, and the 10th-best value on DK. They do spread the ball around bit here, but they are also down DeVante Parker (hamstring, IR), so Waddle will be the clear #1 WR again this week. He will be in the slot often, and the Jets have been lenient inside. Last week, thanks to only 2+ quarters of Tua, he turned six targets into a serviceable 4/61 receiving, and the Jets have fallen apart on defense and are giving up 14.1 YPR to WRs, and since Week 7 no defense has relinquished more FPG to WRs (47.3).
Tight Ends
Cole Kmet (Chi, vs. Bal — $3400 DK, $5100 FD) — He’s incredibly cheap on DK, and a top-2 value on both sites. It’s no coincidence that he’s showing signs of life lately along with Justin Fields, since they are both helping each other out big time. Kmet has seen 6+ targets in three straight and the Ravens are still giving up the third-most FPG (17.5) to TEs despite Mike Gesicki throwing up an air ball last week. Gesicki was open for some nice plays, since it’s a good matchup, especially with Allen Robinson doubtful.
Dawson Knox (Buf, vs. Ind — $4000 DK, $5600 FD) — He’s a top-8 value on both sites. Knox had a nice 17-yard catch early in the game last week, but that was it. He simply wasn’t needed because Stefon Diggs was open all the time. Knox did see his second-highest snap share (84%) of the season, and Cole Beasley is still all kinds of banged up (ribs), which has to help Knox’s chances. Knox caught a touchdown against the Colts in the playoffs last season, and Indy has given up a solid six TDs to TEs in 10 contest games and the sixth-most FP/target to TEs on the season.
Dalton Schultz (Dal, at KC — $4600 DK, $6000 FD) — Schultz has fallen below 10 FP in three straight, and he had a season-worst 14-yard catch on two targets in Dallas’ blowout victory last week, so at least he won’t be popular! The Chiefs also limited Darren Waller to 4/24 receiving on seven targets last week, but with Amari Cooper out, I think Dak Prescott will lean on Schultz underneath in this one, and it helps that it’s the highest expected total on the board this week. On the season, KC allows the second-most FP per target to TEs, and the highest yards-per-target to TEs, and they have given up 3 TDs to the position in their last four games.
Not the best values, but I do like them this week:
None of note.
Primetime Players
Justin Herbert (LAC, vs. Pit — $6700 DK, $7700 FD) — He’s not a great value on either site, but top-10 on both. Herbert so far in his career has not been very good against cover 1 teams, but the Steelers are one of the more zone-heavy teams in the league, and they will be without their best defensive player in TJ Watt and also CB Joe Haden. Pittsburgh definitely showed some vulnerabilities in Week 9 against Justin Fields, who shrugged off a poor first half to finish with 291/1 passing. Even Allen Robinson got 4/68 on them for God’s sake. They’re also giving up the ninth-most FPG to slot receivers, so Keenan Allen is looking good.
Daniel Jones (NYG at TB — $5300 DK, $6900 FD) — He’s the #3 value on DK, but way down the list on FD. He will not have Sterling Shepard, but things are looking good otherwise in terms of his OL with LT Andrew Thomas, who was great before going on IR. The Bucs defense has been very good the last 4-5 weeks, but they won’t likely have stud DT Vita Vea, which is a big help to the Giants, who should also welcome Saquon Barkley back to assist in the offense. Jones completed 25/41 passes for 246 yards and 2 TDs (with also 2 INTs), and he added 3/20 rushing when these teams met on MNF last season. I can see a similar output in this one, and playing from behind should make 15+ FP very doable.
Najee Harris (Pit, at LAC — $8400 DK, $8700 FD) — He’s very pricey, yet still a top-3 value on both sites. Harris had another huge volume game last week with 30 touches, and he probably didn’t score last week because of the nasty weather. But with 22+ carries in five straight and 3+ catches in four straight, he should be golden against a Chargers defense that gives up a league-high 127.8 rushing yards per game to RBs. Dalvin Cook posted 27/118/1 scrimmage in this matchup last week, and that was with DT Linval Joseph in the lineup (he’s doubtful).
Keenan Allen (LAC, vs. Pit — $6900 DK, $7100 FD) — He’s a top-8 value on FD, but only the 19th-best value on DK. The Steelers have been vulnerable inside all year, thanks to the loss of veteran CB Mike Hilton, and they give up the ninth-most FPG to slot receivers on the season. Even low-end guys like Amon-Ra St. Brown (4/61 receiving) and Jarvis Landry (5/65) have posted team-best lines from the slot in this matchup in recent weeks. Allen has topped 17+ FP with 11+ targets in three straight games, and this looks like another Allen game, especially with Mike Williams dropping TD passes as he did last week.
Kadarius Toney (NYG, at TB — $5000 DK, $5300 FD) — He’s a top-3 value on both sites, and with Sterling Shepard out, Toney off the injury report and off a bye, and with the Giants certainly playing from behind, you can be damn sure I’m listing this guy. If he doesn’t get at least 8 looks/touches in the game, OC Jason Garrett should be fired on the spot. All you have to do is plan on getting him the ball and design only some decent plays and let him do the rest. 15+ FP is a lot to ask, but it’s insanely doable and likely if he can find the endzone. I say all this knowing the Bucs defense is healthier and has been very singy lately.
Pat Friermuth (Pit, at LAC — $4200 DK, $5200 FD) — He’s a top-10 value on both sites, and a considerably better value on FD. There's a downside to using him, since the return of TE Eric Ebron did cause Freiermuth’s role to take a hit. Freiermuth ran a route on just 61% of the Steelers pass plays last week with Ebron compared to 73% of the Steelers pass plays without Ebron the week before. But he will get Ben Roethlisberger back, which is obviously huge, and the Chargers have yet to figure out a way to slow down opposing TEs, giving up the fifth-most FPG to the position (16.6). He is Mr. Red Zone and Endzone, so if he can score, he’ll deliver an excellent return.
