Johnny's Cash Game Plays: Week 1

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Johnny's Cash Game Plays: Week 1

I’m pulling back from the length of this DFS column, since I only dabble in DFS and we have more contributors on that front than ever.

I also almost died doing too much writing on DFS last year because it’s really hard for me to make a pick without backing it up with reasons why I like the player. But we already have too much written content on the site, and I can spend more time studying the field if I write less. So basically, my DFS column this year will be my picks and only 1-2 sentences of analysis, if that.

I’m studying all the matchups and everything all week, and I do the projections on the site, so it’s really easy for me to simply head to our DFS projections and sort by Point Per Dollar Value to start my seach for the best ROI based on salary and our projections. I scan those for each position and the final step is adding my gut feeling on the player’s matchup, upside, etc.

Quarterbacks

Note: I’m ranking them in order of my favorite plays, mainly for cash games.

  1. Josh Allen (Buf, vs. Pit - $7400 on DK and $8100 on FD) - He’s a top-2 value on both sites and looks poised for a monster season. He may have had his worst game last year in this matchup, but he fought through it and played well in the second half. I’m paying up.
  • Jalen Hurts (Phi, at Atl - $6400 on DK, $7600 on FD) - I like where they’re at right now with their OL and a nice number of weapons. Greg Cosell believes he will run a lot this week because he’ll see a lot of “stuff” he hasn’t ever seen before with DC Dean Peas across the field.
  • Baker Mayfield (Cle, at KC - $7100 on DK, $7100 on FD) - He’s the #4 value on the board by the numbers on both sites. I definitely like the vibes and his chances of putting up 2-3 TDs and 20+ FP.
  • Ryan Tannehill (Ten, vs. Ari - 6500 on DK and 7700 on FD) - Cardinals are already depleted at CB, and we expect him to shred their coverages in a possible shootout.
  • Mac Jones (NE, at Mia - $4000 on DK) - DK only, since he’s only the 13th best value on FD. Risky play, but the payoff is big because he could easily hit 4x value.
Not the best values, but I do like them this week:
  • Kirk Cousins (Min, at Cin - $6300 on DK, $7200 on FD) ) - if Dalvin Cook doesn’t score 2-3 TDs, it’s because Kirkie has torched them.

  • Kyler Murray (Ari, at Ten - $7600 on DK, $8400 on FD) - He’ll run a lot in this one, and he may have to throw it more than usual, and they throw a lot.

Running Backs

  1. Antonio Gibson (WFT, vs. LAC - $5900 on DK, $7000 on FD) - He’s the #3 value on both sites. It’s not a great matchup, but his role will be massive with 20+ opportunities, and he’s priced way way too low.
  • Dalvin Cook (Min, at Cin - $9100 on DK, $9400 on FD) - He’s only #10 on the bang for your buck list on FD, but he’s the #4 guy on DK. The Bengals should get roasted by Dalvin and the Vikings, so I think he’s a better play than CMC, who is priced higher.
  • Javonte Williams (Den, at NYG - $4000 on DK) - This is DK only where, he’s the #1 RB value on the board. Risky, but the ROI potential is too good to pass up. I’m feeling something special from him, actually.
  • AJ Dillon (GB, at NO - $4000 on DK, $4000 on FD) - He’s the #2 RB value on both sites. The Saints have some serious issues inside on their D-line, so if Dillon gets volume late in game with a lead, he could do something special.
  • Damien Harris (NE, at Mia - $5200 on DK, $5800 on FD) - He’s a top-8 value on both sites. Miami’s defense is tough, but the game should be close, and the Pats won’t want to put their rookie QB in a bad spot, so expect a run-heavy script.
  • Chase Edmonds (Ari, at Ten - $4600 on DK) - This is DK only, where he’s the fifth-best value on the board. This could be a shootout, so Edmunds is looking at nice target volume, especially if they are playing from behind.
  • James Robinson (Jax, $6400 on DK, $5900 on FD) - He’s the #1 value on the board on FD, but not quite the value on DK. Still, while Carlos Hyde will be a factor, I still think Robinson handles 60-65% of the snaps, and that’s enough against this horrible defense,
Not the best values, but I do like them this week:
  • Nick Chubb (Cle, at KC - $6200 on DK, $7200 on FD) - I think KC might have some issues stoping the run, and I think the Browns may come in to Arrowhead and surprise many with a win. Chubb for DFS is volatile, but when he hits, he can hit big.

  • Joe Mixon (Cin, vs. Min - $6200 on DK, $7200 on FD) - He’s against a good team where they are underdogs, and we really want Mixon when they are favored. But Gio Bernard is gone, so Mixon will be less game-script dependent, and he can produce in this matchup with 20+ opportunities.

  • Trey Sermon (SF. at Det - $4500 on DK, $5200 on FD) - He’s risky with no guaranteed role, but theres also tangible upside with such a great matchup.

Wide Receivers

  1. DK Metcalf (Sea, at Ind - $7700 on FD) - You can certainly use him on DK, but he’s a way better value on FD, per my projections. I’m with everyone who thinks he may go off with Xavier Rhodes out.
  • Marquez Callaway (NO, vs. GB - $3400 on DK, $5200 on FD) - He’s a top-5 value on both sites and is insanely underpriced, especially on DK. Calloway should deliver 4X value at minimum at his DK price (13.6 FP).
  • Elijah Moore (NYJ. at Car - $3000 on DK $5000 on FD) - He’s a top-3 vaule on both sites and an absolute no-brainer when looking for a dirt cheap WR. His price will likely be $2000+ higher next week. If Keelan Cole ends up inactive, which is very possible as of Saturday, that’s even better.
  • Gabriel Davis (Buf, vs. Pit - $3500 on DK, $4900 on FD) - I’m feeling this one. We like his matchup, he looked great in their last game last month, and Emmanuel Sanders is iffy to play. I may be insane, but I’m feeling a 2-TD game. I’ll take anything we get at as long as it’s over 12 FP. It will be.
  • Marvin Jones (Jax at Hou - $3600 on DK) - He’s fine if you want him for FD, but he’s the #3 value on DK and only 30th on FD. But the Texans are DOA before the season even starts and Marvin’s Trevor Lawrence’s go-to guy right now.
  • Jerry Jeudy (Den, at NYG - $4800 on DK, $5500 on FD) - I think he will see less of top corner James Bradbury, and with that and a low price, I’m in. Jeudy looked great in the preseason and connected on a few nice RAC plays from Teddy B.
Not the best values, but I do like them this week:
  • Justin Jeffferson (Min, at Cin - $7700 on DK, $8000 on FD) and Adam Thielen (Min, at Cin - $7000 on DK, $7300 on FD) - Love them both to crush Cincy. Tough to guess the better play, but I’m going Jefferson.

  • DeAndre Hopkins (Hou, at Ten - $7800 on DK and $8200 on FD) - He’s a better value on FD, but I like him a bunch this week against his old division rivals.

  • AJ Brown (Ten, vs. Ari - $7100 on DK, $7800 on FD) - I’m with everyone on the potential shooout and great matchup for Brown, who practiced fully late in the week.

  • Calvin Ridley (Atl, vs. Phi - $7900 on DK, $8100 on FD) - I think we’ll see Ridley vs. Darius Slay, and think Ridley wins it and could go off if they throw it 40+ times.

  • Terry McLaurin (WFT, vs. LAC - $6400 on DK, $6900 on FD) - No Curtis Samuel helps, but Ryan Fitzpatrick was gonna sling it to TMC no matter what.

  • Chase Claypool (Pit, at Buf - $5600 on DK, $6000 on FD) - I don’t think he’ll see CB Tre White all day, and I think the Steelers will have to throw it 40+ times.

Tight Ends

  1. Kyle Pitts (Atl. Phi - $4400 on DK, $6000 FD) - S Rodney McCloud may miss the game, and Philly has been bad against TEs since the 90’s, so I think Pitts, the Philly product, could go off in his first game.
  • Logan Thomas (WFT, vs. LAC - $4400 on DK, $5600 on FD) - No Curtis Samuel is nice, and he and Fitzmagic had a nice chemisty this summer.
  • Gerald Everrett (Sea, at Ind - $3400 on DK, $4800 on FD) - Much better value on DK, but I think worth a shot against this defense, which generally does not give up big plays.
  • Tyler Kroft (NYJ, at Car - $2500 on DK, $4700 on FD) - He’s a way better longshot on DK, where I think he’s 75% to deliver 3X. He could easily deliver 5X, honestly, unless I’m nuts. He could be Zach Wilson’s top guys inside.
Not the best values, but I do like them this week:
  • Jonnu Smith (NE, at Mia - $4100 on DK, $4900 on FD) - He’s actually a good value on FD. Maybe this isn’t fancy enough in terms of analysis, but Miami has two excellent outside CBs, so why wouldn’t they look for Jonnu when they throw?

  • Austin Hooper (Cle, at KC - $4000 on DK, $5200 on FD) - I like him to catch 50+ balls here, and if this is a shootout, Hoop’s catching 5-6 balls for sure.

Primetime Players

  1. Matthew Stafford (LAR, $6200 on DK, $7400 on FD) - Love Stafford this week, and a top-6 value on both sites.
  • Mark Andrews (Bal, at LV) - $5300 on DK, $6200 on FD) - He’s a better value on FD, but I think he has a big day, so he’s a good play on both.
  • Lamar Jackson (Bal, at LV - $7700 on DK, $8600 on FD) - He’s a better value on FD, but I think Lamar will put the team on his back and exploit a perennially-bad Raiders secondary for 2-3 TDs via the pass.
  • Marquise Brown (Bal, at LV - $5100 on DK, $6200 on FD) - He’s good-to-go and he’s practiced for two weeks, so I think he’s going to have a big game on MNF and people will be pissed they didn’t listen to me about Brown this summer.
  • Darnell Mooney (Chi at LAR - $4000 on DK, $5500 on FD) - He’s a much better value on DK. He’ll probably popular with people assuming Jalen Ramsey will lock up on Allen Robinson. He could, and it’s a new DC, but Ramsey has not been doing that lately. Regardless, the upside for Mooney at his low price is too good to resist.

Fantasy Sports Writers Association Hall of Famer John Hansen has been an industry leader and pioneer since 1995, when he launched Fantasy Guru. His content has been found over the years on ESPN.com, NFL.com, SiriusXM, DirecTV, Yahoo!, among others outlets. In 2015 he sold Fantasy Guru and in 2020 founded FantasyPoints.com.