General Rules for Creating Showdown/MVP Lineups
Correlate with your Captain/MVP - Make sure you are creating a roster that makes sense with your 1.5x player.
On DraftKings, lean RB/WR in the captain. Though QB can finish as the optimal captain, it’s often overused by the field relative to its success rate. When you are using a QB in the captain, I like to use a lot of his pass-catchers. Because the likely scenario if a QB ends up as the captain on DK is he spreads his touchdowns around to multiple receivers and not one skill player had a ceiling game.
On FanDuel the MVP spot doesn’t cost you 1.5x salary which means you’re just trying to get the highest scoring player in that spot. Contrary to DK, it’s often the QB because of the scoring system. I would lean QB/RB on FD, but there are always exceptions to the rule.
Leave salary on the table - I’m not just talking about a few hundred. Don’t be afraid to leave a few thousand on the table. In a slate that has an extremely limited number of viable options, there is a much greater chance for lineup duplication. It may not seem like much of an issue, but it can decimate your expected value to put in lineups that are going to split with 500 other people.
Multi-enter if you can. Single-game slates have so much variance that the first play of the game can take you completely out of contention if you only have one lineup. It’s best to build a bunch of lineups (you don’t have to max enter) that concentrate on different game scripts and a handful of different correlated captains.
DST and Kickers, while not very exciting usually offer a solid floor for cheap. Especially in game scripts that go under expected point totals. I would only use at most two per lineup.
When creating single-game lineups, the most important part is creating correlated lineups according to a projected game script, and not pinpointing the exact five or six players who will score the most fantasy points on the slate.
Davante Adams definitely has lock consideration tonight. The 49ers have great skill players and the Packers have a couple players that can hit ceiling games, but Adams usage should be off the charts tonight. The 49ers are weak in the secondary and when the game means this much I would expect Rodgers to lock in on one of the top receivers in the league. He’s basically a lock for double digit targets and I would expect something in the neighborhood of 12+,
Deebo Samuel is an interesting option at captain. I actually think he’s a bit overpriced because I think there is significant variance to his rushing production. His usage as a receiver is volatile as well. He could very well only see five or six targets, which puts his floor at much lower than most at his price range. That said, he’ll probably be much less rostered than Adams, so he makes for a decent contrarian captain. I would keep he and Mitchell separate as much as possible since his ceiling game includes eating into his rushing workload.
George Kittle is another decent option at captain when you are trying to get a bit different. He is priced way down after a month of being an afterthought in the 49ers offense. However, it was just five and six short weeks ago that we saw what Kittle’s ceiling could be. On the road against the Bengals and Seahawks in consecutive weeks he racked up a combine 22/300/3 line, resulting in 42 and 37 DraftKings points respectively.
Elijah Mitchell will most likely come in as the lowest rostered captain and flex play of the 49ers main skill players. It’s a tough matchup and his team is an underdog on the road. Mitchell doesn’t catch passes which makes him game flow dependent. The odds the 49ers run out to a two score lead and play clock killing football is slim, but worth a shot in large field tournaments.
Aaron Rodgers can surely turn in a patented 300-yard, three touchdown performance. It’s always risky when he has one receiver getting more than 30% of the target and air yards share, but there is always a chance that guys like Randall Cobb, Allen Lazard, and Josiah Deguara steal some of that touchdown variance in their favor. I’d stack him with two or three pass catchers in the flex.
Aaron Jones is the contrarian pivot off the chalky Davante Adams. I’m not going to this well much in my lineups, but it is conceivable a week like the Packers first meeting with the Bears occurs. In that game Jones ended up scoring on a pass from Rodgers and Adams didn’t resulting in Jones being a better value and if it was this week’s slate, he’d have landed in the optimal captain spot.
Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb will step into the ancillary role behind Adams. Without MVS in the lineup I think both Cobb and Lazard are going to have significant roles in the offense. They make excellent mid-to-low value plays on this slate. There is a very good chance one of them lands in the optimal lineups.
Brandon Aiyuk and Juann Jennings are the “Lazard and Cobb” from the Packers. Aiyuk has been hit or miss but definitely has a higher median projection than Jennings. However, for his cost I think Jennings makes for a decent floor option. He is likely to see 5+ targets if you need to save the salary. I would almost always opt for Aiyuk over Kittle in the flex, but I think Kittle would be my preferred captain since he has the ability to put up 35 on any given slate. Aiyuk is a stead 10-20 DK point range of outcome type player, which makes him a great flex play.
Josiah Deguara will run the tight end routes for the Packers and can work in Rodgers captain lineups hoping that he is on the receiving end of a touchdown. AJ Dillon could take a backseat to a healthy Aaron Jones especially against a pass-funnel 49ers team, but I wouldn’t mind a few darts on him if you think this game gets out of hand in Lambeau. A Rodgers, Davante, Dillon combo makes sense if you think they torch the 9ers early.
Jimmy Garoppolo just doesn’t have a ceiling for his current price tag. He’s more expensive than most of his weapons and he rarely outscores them. I’ll be underweight on him.
Darts: If you need a super cheap option as a last man in, you could use players like Trent Sherrfield, Kyle Jusczyzk, or Equanimeous St. Brown.
Captain: Davante Adams
Flex: Aaron Rodgers, Randall Cobb, Brandon Aiyuk
Captain: Aaron Rodgers
Flex: Allen Lazard, Josiah Deguara, Deebo Samuel
Captain: Davante Adams
Flex: Aaron Rodgers, AJ Dillon, Packers DST
Captain: Deebo Samuel
Flex: Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones, Allen Lazard
Captain: George Kittle
Flex: Jimmy Garoppolo, Davante Adams, Allen Lazard