Week 3 is here!
Friday’s slate is filled with fun matchups that will produce plenty of fantasy action despite it being a two-game slate. Dillon Gabriel is a lock in our lineup after his hot start with new HC Gus Malzahn, but whom do we choose between Malik Cunningham and Taulia Tagovailoa? It’s tough to fit both Jaylon Robinson and Dontay Demus in our lineups, so who do we pick? Is Ahmari Huggins-Bruce the next Tutu Atwell?
Come find out…
Against the Spread Picks
UCF (-7) vs Louisville
Maryland (-7.5) vs Illinois
Maryland vs Illinois (Over 60.5)
UCF vs Louisville (Over 68.0)
Dillon Gabriel, UCF vs Louisville (DK: $8.6K | FD: $11.4K | O/U: 68.0 | Implied: 37.5)
There were questions about whether Dillon Gabriel would still be fantasy relevant with HC Gus Malzahn. The answer through the first two weeks is a resounding yes. In both games, he has thrown for 300-plus yards and rushed for 40-plus, averaging 35 FPG. He is a lock facing a Louisville DEF that allowed Matt Corral to throw for 381 yards and run for another 55.
Malik Cunningham, Louisville vs UCF (DK: $7.6K | FD: $10.8K | O/U: 68.0 | Implied: 30.5)
Malik Cunningham picked up where he left off last year, averaging 31.2 FPG through the first two games. With the Louisville running game struggling, Cunningham, a classic Konami Code QB, is averaging 54 rushing yards and 2 TDs per game this year. If there is a path to victory for Louisville against UCF, it will involve a massive game from Cunningham. Week 1 versus Boise State, UCF gave up 263 yards through the air and 2 TDs. Last year, UCF DEF ranked 121st in pass YPG allowing 299.2 yards while surrendering 32.5 FPG to opposing QBs. Cunningham is the best QB value on the DK slate at $7.6K.
Most rushing yards after contact by quarterbacks since 2020:— PFF College (@PFF_College) September 15, 2021
1. Malik Willis, Liberty - 591
2. Malik Cunningham, Louisville - 517
3. D’Eriq King, Miami - 483 pic.twitter.com/DGrdJh2sKV
Taulia Tagovailoa, Maryland vs Illinois (DK: $8.0K | FD: $10.5K | O/U: 60.5 | Implied: 34.0)
Taulia Tagovailoa is off to a hot start, in 2021 averaging 26.1 FPG. He is leading an explosive passing attack averaging 339.5 YPG and 10.0 YPA, both ranking in the top-20 nationally. Illinois is a bottom-10 pass DEF allowing 311 YPG and 9.0 YPA. This is a juicy matchup on paper. My only concern is that Tagovailoa does not provide us much on the ground so his ceiling appears lower than Gabriel and Cunningham. He is a viable option at $8.0K, but I prefer Cunningham over Tagovailoa personally.
Isaiah Bowser, UCF vs Louisville (DK: $5.9K | FD: $10.0K | O/U: 68.0 | Implied: 37.5)
Isaiah Bowser has revived his career at UCF as the ideal workhorse RB in Gus Malzahn’s system. Through two games, Bowser is averaging 22.5 carries, 115 yards and 2.5 TDs per game. The next closest RB is averaging 5.5 carries per game. Louisville allowed Ole Miss RBs to rush for 135 yards and 3 TDs on 28 carries. This is setting up to be a big game for Bowser. He is a must in our Cash/SE lineups this week on DK.
Isaiah Bowser’s last year at Northwestern: 78 carries for 230 yards & 1 rushing TD— ⚔️Sidelines - UCF⚔️ (@SSN_UCF) September 11, 2021
This year at UCF so far: 35 carries for 191 yards & 2 rushing TDs.
We are less than a minute & a half into the 2nd game of the season! pic.twitter.com/HNGsq7UvoO
Tayon Fleet-Davis, Maryland vs Illinois (DK: $5.3K | FD: $8.5K | O/U: 60.5 | Implied: 34.0)
Tayon Fleet-Davis has taken full advantage of his opportunity as RB1 for Maryland these first two weeks averaging 17.7 FPG. He is facing an Illinois DEF ranked 91st in rush YPG (170.0). With Taulia Tagovailoa providing little rushing threat at QB, there will be plenty of opportunities for Fleet-Davis to carry the ground game for Maryland. There really aren’t any other slam dunk RBs on the slate either. At $5.3K, Fleet-Davis should hit value and allow us to invest in QBs and WRs on this slate.
Chase Brown, Illinois Vs Maryland, (DK: $4.5K | FD: $6.5K | O/U: 60.5 | Implied: 26.5)
Rakim Jarrett, Maryland vs Illinois (DK: $5.5K | FD: $9.0K | O/U: 60.5 | Implied: 34.0)
Rakim Jarrett is way too cheap at $5.5K facing an Illinois DEF ranked 118th versus opposing WRs, surrendering 32.6 FPG. Rakim Jarrett and Dontay Demus are dominating the market share on snaps, targets and production for the Terrapins. Jarrett is averaging 23.1 FPG and is only $5.5K on DK. He is a lock to hit value in this generous matchup and is a must in our lineups Friday night.
Dontay Demus, Maryland vs Illinois (DK: $7.2K | FD: $9.7K | O/U: 60.5 | Implied: 34.0)
Dontay Demus is balling out to start the 2021 season averaging 28.1 FPG. He is averaging 6 catches, 130.5 receiving yards and a TD per game. He is positioned for another big game versus a terrible Illinois secondary and is still affordable at $7.2K. Practically, we have to choose between Dontay Demus and Jaylon Robinson in our lineups. Who do we think is going to have a bigger game? In Cash/SE (single-entry), I’m choosing Demus because I trust him more. I’ll explain why below.
Jaylon Robinson, UCF vs Louisville (DK: $8.1K | FD: $9.5K | O/U: 68.0 | Implied: 37.5)
Jaylon Robinson is so explosive. Versus Boise State, Robinson turned 8 targets into 6 receptions for 140 yards and a TD leading the team in every receiving category. Last week versus Bethune-Cookman, Robinson finished with 5 targets for 2 receptions and 47 yards, finishing 3rd on the team in each statistical category. This is who Robinson is, an explosive playmaker who is extremely inconsistent. For example, last year Robinson had 55 catches for 979 yards and 6 TDs in 10 games. A third of that production came in two games where Robinson had 19 receptions for 323 yards and 4 TDs. In GPPs, I’d take a shot on Robinson, but I don’t trust him over the much more consistent Dontay Demus in Cash/SE contests.
Brandon Johnson, UCF vs Louisville, (DK: $5.0K | FD: $8.0K | O/U: 68.0 | Implied: 37.5)
Brandon Johnson is the UCF WR I prefer versus Louisville. He is the cheapest option between Jaylon Robinson, Ryan O’Keefe and himself, but is leading the team in receptions and receiving TDs. Functioning in more of a possession WR role, he is averaging 64 YPC on 6.5 catches per contest. At only $5K, he’ll hit value versus Louisville. O’Keefe is also a viable option at $6.3K leading UCF in targets, but he hasn’t scored a TD yet this season.
Ahmari Huggins-Bruce, Louisville vs UCF (DK: $3.4K | FD: $6.0K | O/U: 68.0 | Implied: 30.5)
Ahmari Huggins-Bruce exploded onto the college football scene last week with 4 catches for 150 yards. After dropping the ball on the one-yard line on his way to the end-zone in classic Desean Jackson style, he has learned his lesson to make sure he crosses the goal line before celebrating (hopefully). In an offense that lost it’s big playmaker in Tutu Atwell to the NFL, Huggins-Bruce’s emergence as a true freshman is a welcomed sight. He is leading the Louisville offense in targets and yards while being 8th in passing snaps over the first two games. Needless to say, he has earned himself a much larger role in this offense moving forward, starting this week versus UCF. At only $3.4K, he should exceed value on DK and allows us to target higher-priced options elsewhere.
#Louisville tFR WR Ahmari Huggins-Bruce finished the night with 4/150 yds, including this would-be TD had he not dropped it early 🤦♂️— Cory P. (@FF_Guitarist) September 12, 2021
Still, the speedster is working in Tutu Atwells old role, and received some strong praise from staff this offszn #devy
Ryan O’Keefe, UCF vs Louisville, (DK: $6.3K | FD: $6.7K | O/U: 68.0 | Implied: 37.5)
Isaiah Williams, Illinois Vs Maryland, (DK: $4.7K | FD: $7.0K | O/U: 60.5 | Implied: 26.5)
Marshon Ford, Louisville vs UCF (DK: $3.5K | FD: $5.3K | O/U: 68.0 | Implied: 30.5)