I’m excited to kick off another big CFB DFS weekend!
This Saturday slate provides us with a variety of options with 14 games in total. I’m pretty excited about some of these matchups including a potential shootout in the Wake Forest versus Duke matchup. Yes, you read that correctly. Is Sam Hartman a lock this week? Who do we stack with him: Jaquarii Roberson, AT Perry, or both? Do we come back with Duke RB, Mataeo Durant, in that matchup? Can Miami QB Tyler Van Dyke have an encore performance to his masterpiece versus North Carolina State? Is Purdue WR David Bell a viable option as a bounce-back candidate versus Nebraska? Is Clemson RB Will Shipley the next true freshman RB to breakout with Kobe Pace out?
Let’s dig in…
Against the Spread Picks
Miami (+9) vs Pittsburgh
Purdue (+7.5) vs Nebraska
Miami vs Pittsburgh (Under 61.0)
Iowa vs Wisconsin (Over 36.5)
Sam Hartman, Wake Forest vs Duke (DK: $9.0K | FD: $11.5K | O/U: 70.5 | Implied: 43.5)
Sam Hartman seems to be finally putting it all together this season, averaging 295.3 PASS YPG and 29.8 FPG. Over the last three games, he increased his production to 370.7 PASS YPG and 39.76 FPG. Hartman is in store for another massive week. This Duke DEF is ranked 119th in PASS YPG (277.9) and 128th in QB FPG (32.9). In fact, they have allowed 29.5-plus FPs in all but one game this year so Hartman is a virtual lock to hit value in this contest.
Sam Hartman: 11 pass TDs of 30+ yards— PFF College (@PFF_College) October 26, 2021
Tied for most in college football 🔥 pic.twitter.com/yX1yhnnLVq
Casey Thompson, Texas vs Baylor (DK: $6.9K | FD: $8.5K | O/U: 61.5 | Implied: 29.25)
Casey Thompson has been inconsistent this season with two games of 36-plus FPs and three games below 15 FPs as the starting QB. However, he has always followed up bad games with good ones this season. In Thompson's last game versus Oklahoma State he scored a season-low 8.76 FPs. The Baylor DEF is pretty good, ranking 28th in PASS YPG (198.9) and 48th in QB FPG (20.0). However, they have slipped over the last three games, allowing 265.3 PASS YPG for 25.7 FPG. BYU QB Jaren Hall, who has a similar skill set to Thompson, put up 342 yards through the air and an additional 25 yards on the ground for 29.6 FPs. Versus BYU, the Baylor DEF allowed four catches for 40-plus yards. I think Casey Thompson has a great opportunity to hit value at $6.9K in this matchup.
Tyler Van Dyke, Miami vs Pittsburgh (DK: $6.7K | FD: $7.8K | O/U: 61.0 | Implied: 26.0)
Tyler Van Dyke backed up his trash talk from earlier last week and put together a masterpiece versus a tough NC State defense, throwing for 325 yards and 4 TDs for 32.8 FPs. Through his first four games as a starter, he is averaging 265.5 YPG for 22.5 FPG. The Pittsburgh DEF is ranked 71st in QB FPG (22.4) and 46th in PASS YPG (209.4). They have struggled versus QBs who like to push the ball down the field and that is exactly what Van Dyke did well versus NC State last week. If the offensive line can give him time, Van Dyke can have success versus this Pittsburgh defense. At $6.7K, Van Dyke only needs to score 20.1 FPs to hit value and I expect him to do that in this contest.
Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh vs Miami (DK: $8.7K | FD: $10.5K | O/U: 61.0 | Implied: 35.0)
Desmond Ridder, Cincinnati vs Tulane (DK: $8.3K | FD: $10.3K | O/U: 62.0 | Implied: 44.25)
Gerry Bohanon, Baylor vs Texas (DK: $7.2K | FD: $9.0K | O/U: 61.5 | Implied: 32.25)
Mataeo Durant, Duke vs Wake Forest (DK: $7.7K | FD: $9.0K | O/U: 70.5 | Implied: 27.0)
Mataeo Durant has been one of the very few bright spots for Duke this season on offense. For the season, he is averaging 150.4 YPG on 26 touches per game for 27.8 FPG. Volume is the name of the game in DFS which makes Durant so attractive to us. This Wake Forest DEF is ranked 119th in RUSH YPG (207.86) and 105th in RB FPG (27.7), making this an ideal matchup for Durant to hit value at $7.7K.
Will Shipley, Clemson vs Florida State (DK: $5.7K | FD: $6.4K | O/U: 47.5 | Implied: 28.5)
Will Shipley returned versus Pittsburgh and had 11 touches for 57 yards. He is in for a massive workload versus Florida State with Kobe Pace out due to COVID protocol. In Shipley’s only healthy game as a starter, he had 23 touches, 94 yards and 2 TDs for 23.4 FPs. With Clemson QB, DJ Uiagalelei, and the passing game struggling, I expect Clemson to rely on Shipley as a playmaker versus a Florida State DEF ranked 79th in RUSH YPG (158.43). At $5.7K, Shipley is reasonably priced and allows us to spend up on other players.
More big news for Clemson -- starting running back Kobe Pace will miss Saturday's game against Florida State https://t.co/DriE2YeBW4— Matt Connolly (@MattOnClemson) October 26, 2021
Stephen Carr, Indiana vs Maryland (DK: $5.5K | FD: $7.7K | O/U: 49.5 | Implied: 22.0)
Stephen Carr has been a reliable RB for Indiana this year since transferring from USC. He is averaging 20.6 touches and 75 YPG for 14.5 FPG. He has an ideal matchup versus a soft Maryland DEF ranked 74th in RUSH YPG (154.86) and 126th in RB FPG (33.5). In Big 10 conference play, Maryland has really struggled allowing opposing RBs to average 259.5 YPG and 39.5 FPG. Carr dominates the touches and snaps among Indiana RBs so a majority of the production from the backfield will come from him. He has the opportunity to smash value in this matchup at $5.5K.
Abram Smith, Baylor vs Texas (DK: $7.2K | FD: $8.6K | O/U: 61.5 | Implied: 32.25)
Kenneth Walker III, Michigan State vs Michigan (DK: $6.4K | FD: $9.0K | O/U: 50.0 | Implied: 23.0)
Christian Beal-Smith, Wake Forest vs Duke (DK: $5.1K | FD: $7.6K | O/U: 70.5 | Implied: 43.5)
Vincent Davis, Pittsburgh vs Miami (DK: $3.9K | FD: $5.7K | O/U: 61.0 | Implied: 35.0)
Tyjae Spears, Tulane vs Cincinnati (DK: $3.8K | FD: $5.2K | O/U: 62.0 | Implied: 17.75)
Jaquarii Roberson, Wake Forest vs Duke (DK: $7.6K | FD: $9.0K | O/U: 70.5 | Implied: 43.5)
Jaquarii Roberson has come alive over the last three games after his slow start to the season. Over the past three games, he is averaging 10.3 targets, 7.7 catches and 142.3 YPG for 31.8 FPG. The Duke DEF is ranked 119th in PASS YPG (277.9) and 112th in WR FPG (28.9). If you are going to have Sam Hartman as one of your QBs, then you have to stack him with Jaquarii Roberson or AT Perry. Both WRs are the same price, but Roberson has the much higher upside with his ability to produce explosive plays.
David Bell, Purdue vs Nebraska (DK: $7.1K | FD: $9.1K | O/U: 52.5 | Implied: 22.5)
David Bell struggled against a Wisconsin defense who bracketed him the entire game. As a result, I’m expecting a big bounce-back game from Bell versus Nebraska. Despite the lack of production, Bell still saw double-digit targets for the 5th time this season. The Nebraska PASS DEF is tough, ranked 43rd in PASS YPG (208.5) and 40th in WR FPG (19.4). However, David Bell torched them last year with 10 catches, 132 yards and a TD for 31.2 FPs. At $7.1K, Bell is affordable and attractive with his potential upside every time he steps on the field.
Taysir Mack, Pittsburgh vs Miami (DK: $4.7K | FD: $6.7K | O/U: 61.0 | Implied: 35.0)
Taysir Mack produced last week against a tough Clemson defense with 15.3 FPs. If Jordan Addison doesn’t play, he is in concussion protocol and is considered questionable, Mack would step in as the WR1 for Pittsburgh. He is currently 2nd on the team in targets, yards and TDs, averaging 12.0 FPG. The Miami DEF is ranked 93rd in PASS YPG (245.0) and 127th in WR FPG (33.3). Regardless of whether Addison plays or not, Mack is a viable option versus Miami at $4.7K.
When #Pitt takes on #Miami Saturday, it may be without their star WR Jordan Addison who leads the country in TD receptions, and Israel Abanikanda who's emerged as the Panthers' top back.— Christopher Carter (@CarterCritiques) October 28, 2021
What Pat Narduzzi said today about their status and more:https://t.co/eqJ5RCHYMF
Charlie Kolar, Iowa State vs West Virginia (DK: $4.1K | FD: NA | O/U: 48.5 | Implied: 27.75)
Charlie Kolar is a cheaper, consistent option for us to consider. He has produced 12.1-plus FPs in four of six games this year and is averaging 12.3 FPG for the year, which is exactly what he would need to score to hit value at $4.1K. The West Virginia DEF is ranked 96th in PASS YPG (247.9) and 108th in WR FPG (28.2). This is a great matchup and opportunity to get solid production from a player that is really cheap. With Kolar in our lineup, we can spend more at other positions on the slate.
Key’Shawn Smith, Miami vs Pittsburgh (DK: $3.7K | FD: $5.3K | O/U: 61.0 | Implied: 26.0)
Key’Shawn Smith is another cheaper option to consider as it feels like he is on the cusp of a breakout game. He is 2nd among the Miami WRs in snaps on the year and 3rd in every other receiving category. Smith has at least 4 catches in all but one game this year. Versus UNC two weeks ago, Smith turned 15 targets into 7 catches and 70 yards for 14 FPs. After a massive game for Charleston Rambo, I expect Pittsburgh to key in on him in the passing game, leaving more targets for Smith. At $3.7K, he is worth considering to fit a few more expensive options in your lineup.
AT Perry, Wake Forest vs Duke (DK: $7.5K | FD: $9.4K | O/U: 70.5 | Implied: 43.5)
Xavier Worthy, Texas vs Baylor (DK: $6.8K | FD: $7.9K | O/U: 61.5 | Implied: 29.25)
Payne Durham, Purdue vs Nebraska (DK: $4.9K | FD: $6.8K | O/U: 52.5 | Implied: 22.5)
Marcus Fleming, Maryland vs Indiana (DK: $4.5K | FD: $5.3K | O/U: 49.5 | Implied: 27.5)
Jared Wayne, Pittsburgh vs Miami (DK: $4.0K | FD: $6.4K | O/U: 61.0 | Implied: 35.0)