I’m excited to kick off another big CFB DFS weekend!
The Friday night slates have been incredible so far, filled with fun matchups producing plenty of fantasy action. This weekend has fun options at the skill positions, but questions abound at QB. The BYU QB, Jaren Hall or Baylor Romney, will definitely be in our lineup on Friday night, but what about our second QB? Do we go after Taulia Tagovailoa, who has been really good and consistent through four games, but has a tough matchup versus Iowa? Or do we elect to put a QB like Clayton Tune in our lineup, who has lacked consistency this year, but has a pretty good matchup versus Tulsa?
Come find out…
Against the Spread Picks
Houston (+4.5) vs Tulsa
BYU (-9) vs Utah State
Iowa (-3.5) vs Maryland
Houston vs Tulsa (Under 55)
BYU vs Utah State (Over 62)
Iowa vs Maryland (Over 47.5)
Jaren Hall, BYU vs Utah State (DK: $8.8K | FD: $10.0K | O/U: 62.0 | Implied: 35.5)
Jaren Hall, if available, is the top QB play on the slate. Utah State DEF is ranked 90th versus opposing QBs in FPG (24.3). They have allowed opposing QBs to rush for 45-plus yards in 3 of 4 games this year, which is key, because Hall is a dual-threat QB who has rushed for 36-plus yards in every game this season. He has also thrown for 8 TDs in 3 games while facing all PAC-12 opponents.
Kalani Sitake seemed to indicate this week that Hall would play in these quotes:
- On Hall: “We thought he’d be ready to go, and the advice from the medical staff, they thought it would be best to hold him out. I think if you asked him he wanted to go but we have to be smart and we have to save our guys from themselves, even. We’re feeling pretty good about him being back” for Utah State.
If Jaren Hall is not available, then it’s pretty easy to pivot to Baylor Romney at $8.5K, who put up 28.6 FPs in a win over USF this last week.
BYU OC Aaron Roderick on Coordinators' Corner on QB situation: “We will see. If Jaren (Hall) is ready to go, then it will be Jaren. If he’s not, then it will be Baylor (Romney) again.”— Jay Drew (@drewjay) September 27, 2021
Taulia Tagovailoa, Maryland vs Iowa (DK: $7.0K | FD: $10.5K | O/U: 47.5 | Implied: 22.0)
Taulia Tagovailoa is having a strong start to his 2021 campaign averaging 26.2 FPG. He has accumulated most of his stats through the air, throwing for 335 YPG and 10 TDs. He would seem to be a slam dunk at his price point of $7.0K. However, he is facing an Iowa DEF ranked 36th in PASS YPG (187.0) and 12th versus opposing QB in FPG (13.7). This is not a great matchup, but quite honestly, all the QB options have question marks on this slate. The fact that Tagovailoa has two very talented WRs in Dontay Demus and Rakim Jarrett makes me feel better about taking the risk of inserting him into our lineups.
Davis Brin, Tulsa vs Houston, (DK: $6.7K | FD: $8.1K | O/U: 55.0 | Implied: 29.75)
Clayton Tune, Houston vs Tulsa (DK: $6.5K | FD: $9.4K | O/U: 55.0 | Implied: 29.75)
Tyler Goodson, Iowa vs Maryland (DK: $6.8K | FD: $9.2K | O/U: 47.5 | Implied: 25.5)
Tyler Goodson is the focal point of the Iowa offense, averaging 106.3 YPG along with 5 TDs for 21.1 FPG. He has done this while facing two top-10 defenses versus opposing RBs in FPG and another top-50 defense. His one plus matchup versus Kent State he ran for 153 yards and 3 TDs. Maryland is ranked 88th versus opposing RBs in FPG (24.6). Goodson is averaging 22.5 touches per game so he will have plenty of opportunities to rack up FPs in this favorable contest.
Calvin Tyler, Utah State vs BYU (DK: $6.4K | FD: $8.7K | O/U: 62.0 | Implied: 26.5)
Calvin Tyler has come out of nowhere in 2021 to string together several solid weeks to start the year after never rushing for more than 68 yards in a season over his first three years. Over the last two weeks, Tyler is averaging 19.5 carries and 129 yards with two TDs versus Boise State and Air Force. He faces a BYU DEF that is ranked 101st versus opposing RBs in FPG (26.4). I love this matchup for Tyler at his price point of $6.4K.
Alton McCaskill, Houston vs Tulsa (DK: $5.8K | FD: $7.0K | O/U: 55.0 | Implied: 29.75)
Alton McCaskill was a top-30 RB in the 2021 recruiting rankings. It’s not often RBs who are that highly ranked end up at Group of 5 schools like Houston. It didn’t take long for McCaskill to make a big impact for Houston as he has averaged 18 touches for 99.3 yards and 4 TDs since week two. He is averaging 23.3 FPG over that span. Tulsa is ranked 94th versus opposing RBs in FPG (25.9) so this is a great matchup for McCaskill. We saw TreVeyon Henderson run all over this defense two weeks ago to the tune of 277 yards and 3 TDs. I’m not expecting that kind of output from McCaskill, but I do think he hits value at $5.8K.
Tyler Allgeier, BYU vs Utah State, (DK: $7.1K | FD: $9.6K | O/U: 62.0 | Implied: 35.5)
Tyler Allgeier is my fourth favorite RB option on this slate despite being the highest-priced. I love his talent, but he is only averaging 16.1 FPG with a season-high of 21.5 versus USF. The USF DEF is ranked 130th versus opposing RBs in FPG (38.3) so that was a prime matchup for Allgeier. On the surface, Utah State appears like a good matchup for Allgeier, as they are ranked 112th in RUSH YPG (199.73). However, those numbers are a bit deceiving as they include QB rushing yards (50 YPG). Utah State has held opposing RBs below 100 rushing yards in 3 of 4 games. In the fourth game, they gave up 119 rushing yards to RBs versus Air Force, a triple-option team. The Utah State DEF is better versus the run than numbers initially suggest. I prefer the other RB options over Allgeier on this slate.
Shamari Brooks, Tulsa vs Houston, (DK: $4.7K | FD: $8.5K | O/U: 55.0 | Implied: 29.75)
Ta’Zhawn Henry, Houston vs Tulsa (DK: $4.5K | FD: $7.4K | O/U: 55.0 | Implied: 29.75)
Deven Thompkins, Utah State vs BYU (DK: $7.3K | FD: $9.5K | O/U: 62.0 | Implied: 26.5)
Deven Thompkins is having a massive breakout year averaging 26.5 FPG on 7.23 receptions and 128.5 YPG. This isn’t surprising when you consider he is the WR1 in Utah State HC Blake Anderson’s offense. Over the last three years, his WR1 averaged 85 receptions, 1,256 yards and 12 TDs. Thompkins has a decent matchup versus a BYU DEF ranked 49th versus opposing WRs in FPG (17.6) and 82nd in PASS YPG (235.8). The major issue is that it’s hard to fit Jaren Hall and three of the aforementioned RBs with Thompkins in a lineup at $7.3K.
Brandon Bowling, Utah State vs BYU (DK: $5.7K | FD: $8.0K | O/U: 62.0 | Implied: 26.5)
If you can’t fit Deven Thompkins, Brandon Bowling is a good pivot at $5.7K on DK. Over the last three games, Bowling is averaging 6.3 receptions, 105.3 yards and 3 TDs for 24.9 FPG. At $5.7K, he provides us the salary relief we need to fit Jaren Hall in the lineup. Otherwise, you’re looking at starting two questionable QBs.
Rakim Jarrett, Maryland vs Iowa (DK: $4.9K | FD: $7.7K | O/U: 47.5 | Implied: 22.0)
Rakim Jarrett is off to a great start in his sophomore year. Before the blowout versus Kent State, Jarrett averaged 5.3 receptions and 86.3 yards along with 2 TDs for 19 FPG. Iowa is a tough matchup, but his cheap price point of $4.9K means Jarrett should hit value and allows us to focus more salary on QBs and RBs in this slate.
Sam LaPorta, Iowa vs Maryland (DK: $4.6K | FD: $6.7K | O/U: 47.5 | Implied: 25.5)
Sam LaPorta is 5th in the nation in targets per game (7.0) among all TEs. He is leading all pass catchers on his team in targets as he is garnering 25.9 percent of Iowa's targets. Needless to say, he is the focal point of the Iowa passing attack. Maryland is ranked 96th versus opposing pass catchers in FPG (25.9). LaPorta is another pass catcher we should expect to hit value who also allows us to target more expensive players at QB and RB.
Dontay Demus, Maryland vs Iowa (DK: $6.6K | FD: $8.8K | O/U: 47.5 | Implied: 22.0)
Neil Pau’u, BYU vs Utah State, (DK: $6.3K | FD: $8.5K | O/U: 62.0 | Implied: 35.5)
Josh Johnson, Tulsa vs Houston, (DK: $6.0K | FD: $8.3K | O/U: 55.0 | Implied: 29.75)
Keagan Johnson, Iowa vs Maryland (DK: $4.5K | FD: $7.0K | O/U: 47.5 | Implied: 25.5)
Isaac Rex, BYU vs Utah State, (DK: $4.0K | FD: $5.5K | O/U: 62.0 | Implied: 35.5)