I’m pumped for this run of bowl game slates we have to end the year!
This Friday slate features two playoff games and Lew Nichols III. As you can imagine, there are some quality options at each position on this slate. Sam Hartman is a lock in our lineup, but which QB do we choose between Desmond Ridder and Jayden De Laura? At RB, Lew Nichols III is the lock of the slate. Is Blake Corum fully healthy versus Georgia? Who will start at RB for Washington State? At WR, AT Perry is a lock. Who do we choose between Travell Harris and Calvin Jackson Jr.? Or do we start both?
Let’s dig in!
Against the Spread Picks
Cincinnati (+13.5) vs Alabama
Michigan (+7.5) vs Georgia
Total Wagers
Cincinnati (+13.5) vs Alabama (Under 57.5)
Michigan (+7.5) vs Georgia (Over 45.5)
Quarterbacks
Sam Hartman, Wake Forest vs Rutgers (DK: $8.5K | FD: $12.0K | O/U: 62.0 | Implied: 38.25)
Sam Hartman has been one of the most productive CFF QBs this year, averaging 31.5 FPG. He is a sneaky Konami Code QB who threw for 3,918 yards and 36 TDs while running for additional 343 yards and 11 scores. The Rutgers DEF is ranked 67th in PASS YPG (229.2) and 55th in QB FPG (20.7). However, they struggled when facing quality QBs. Versus CJ Stroud, Payton Thorne, and Taulia Tagovailoa, the Scarlet Knights’ DEF allowed at least 300 yards passing and 3 TDs in each game. Hartman is a great value play, even at $8.5K.
Most Pass TDs on 20+ yard throws:
— PFF College Football (@PFF_College) December 30, 2021
1. Sam Hartman - 19
2. Kenny Pickett - 17
3. CJ Stroud - 14
4. Bryce Young - 13pic.twitter.com/5YKaLDEpTV
Desmond Ridder, Cincinnati vs Alabama (DK: $7.7K | FD: $8.5K | O/U: 57.5 | Implied: 22.0)
Desmond Ridder has saved some of his best work for last. Over the last five games, Ridder has thrown for 1,343 yards and 12 TDs while rushing for 190 yards and 3 scores for 29.7 FPG. Alabama has a top-10 overall defense, but is most vulnerable against the pass where they are ranked 62nd in PASS YPG (223.2) and 42 in QB FPG (19.7). As a 13.5-point underdog, Ridder is going to be forced to throw early and often in this contest. It’s hard to see him not hitting value on this slate at $7.7K.
Jayden De Laura, Washington State vs Central Michigan (DK: $7.1K | FD: $9.2K | O/U: 57.5 | Implied: 32.5)
Jayden De Laura gets to play one more game in the Run N’ Shoot offense before Washington State transitions back to the Air Raid under new OC Eric Morris. De Laura has done a solid job in second season at QB for the Cougars, throwing for 2,751 and 23 TDs for 20.6 FPG. The Central Michigan DEF is ranked 76th in QB FPG (23.7) and 114th in PASS YPG (262.8). This game being played on short notice should favor the offenses. Without both Deon McIntosh and Max Borghi, the Cougars should rely on the passing game in this favorable matchup.
Alternatives:
Bryce Young, Alabama vs Cincinnati (DK: $8.5K | FD: $11.2K | O/U: 57.5 | Implied: 35.5)
Running Backs
Lew Nichols III, Central Michigan vs Washington State (DK: $9.5K | FD: $10.5K | O/U: 57.5 | Implied: 25.0)
Lew Nichols III has been the best CFF RB in the country over the last half of the year. In his last 7 games, Nichols is averaging 35.3 FPG on 39.9 touches per game. He almost averaged 40 touches per game during that stretch. Insane. In DFS, volume is king and Nichols has it in spades. The Washington State DEF is ranked 77th in RB FPG (23.5) and 81st in RUSH YPG (162.2). Nichols is the lock of the slate at RB.
Blake Corum, Michigan vs Georgia (DK: $4.4K | FD: $6.5K | O/U: 45.5 | Implied: 19.0)
Blake Corum is finally 100 percent healthy after dealing with an ankle injury over the last several weeks. While ankle injury limited the amount of touches Corum received over the last two games, it did not limit his production. Versus Ohio State and Iowa, he combined for 167 yards and a TDs on 13 touches for 12.35 FPG. At $4.4K, Corum is underpriced on this slate.
Josh Gattis on Blake Corum's ankle injury: "Blake's healthy. We're a healthy team, and that's where we're fortunate. ... We're excited now that we're finally back to full speed and healthy."
— TheWolverine.com (@TheWolverineOn3) December 27, 2021
Nakia Watson, Washington State vs Central Michigan (DK: $3.5K | FD: $5.5K | O/U: 57.5 | Implied: 32.5)
Nakia Watson is the only RB to have played snap for Washington State this year that will be playing in this game. Max Borghi opted out before the bowl game and Deon McIntosh did not travel with the team. This is a punt play with upside as Central Michigan’s defense just isn’t very good and is taking a step up in competition versus the Cougars. The Central Michigan DEF is ranked 82nd in RB FPG (23.7) and 38th in RUSH YPG (131.7). If Watson scores a TD, then he hits value on this slate at his cheap price point of $3.5K.
Alternatives:
Brian Robinson, Alabama vs Cincinnati (DK: $6.8K | FD: $9.5K | O/U: 57.5 | Implied: 35.5)
Receivers
AT Perry, Wake Forest vs Rutgers (DK: $6.6K | FD: $9.4K | O/U: 62.0 | Implied: 38.25)
AT Perry and Jaquarii Roberson ended the season with the exact same amount of targets (112). The next closest WR was Taylor Morin with 58 targets. With Roberson out for the bowl game, Perry will be the dominant WR1 for Wake Forest and should see a plethora of targets. The Rutgers DEF ranked 67th in PASS YPG (229.2) and 76th in WR FPG (24.5). I’m not quite sure why Perry is only $6.6K, but he is a lock for CASH/SE (single-entry) lineups.
Calvin Jackson Jr., Washington State vs Central Michigan (DK: $6.1K | FD: $8.1K | O/U: 57.5 | Implied: 32.5)
Calvin Jackson Jr and Travell Harris are the top two targets in this offense and put almost identical production. I chose to go with Jackson Jr., because he is slightly cheaper on DK. For the season, he had 63 catches for 946 yards and 10 TDs for 17.2 FPG. He has scored 12-plus FPs in all but two games this year giving him an incredible floor. He has a favorable matchup versus a Central Michigan DEF ranked 125th in WR FPG (31.9) and 114th in PASS YPG (262.8). I think it’s reasonable to have both Jackson Jr. and Harris in your lineup, but you need to have at least one of them.
Brock Bowers, Georgia vs Michigan (DK: $7.0K | FD: $7.7K | O/U: 62.0 | Implied: 38.25)
Brock Bowers has been Georgia’s best receiving option all year with 47 catches for 791 yards and 12 TDs for 18 FPG. What he has done as a true freshman at TE is nothing short of remarkable. He saved his best performance of the season for the Bulldogs’ toughest opponent, Alabama. In the SEC Championship game, he had 10 catches for 139 yards and a TD for 33 FPs. There is no reason to think Georgia won’t feature Bowers versus Michigan this week.
These youngins LIT UP college football 💯 pic.twitter.com/SuU5XZdaD8
— PFF College Football (@PFF_College) December 29, 2021
Alternatives:
Travell Harris, Washington State vs Central Michigan (DK: $6.5K | FD: $8.6K | O/U: 57.5 | Implied: 32.5)
Jacorey Sullivan, Central Michigan vs Washington State (DK: $5.7K | FD: $8.7K | O/U: 57.5 | Implied: 25.0)
Taylor Morin, Wake Forest vs Rutgers (DK: $4.9K | FD: $6.7K | O/U: 62.0 | Implied: 38.25)
$4.5K-or-less options:
Ja’Corey Brooks, Alabama vs Cincinnati (DK: $3.9K | FD: $5.3K | O/U: 57.5 | Implied: 35.5)
George Pickens, Georgia vs Michigan (DK: $3.9K | FD: $5.0K | O/U: 62.0 | Implied: 38.25)
Ke’Shawn Williams, Wake Forest vs Rutgers (DK: $3.1K | FD: $5.0K | O/U: 62.0 | Implied: 38.25)