Exciting times across the country as life is slowly returning to normal following the quarantine. Word was passed along this week that the Big Ten voted to get their season underway with other delayed conferences beginning the same discussions. Before too long, we may see nearly all 130 FBS taking the field each week. However, we must take the good with the bad. Despite the film/statistical evidence we have from last season, the atypical offseason leaves us with rosters full of athletes at varying levels of physical conditioning.
Last week, we saw the North Carolina Tar Heels and Iowa State Cyclones mirror that fact. Even the Vegas insiders, who can nearly always be counted upon for maximum preparation, greatly overstating their expectations from those schools. UNC layed a dud in the first half against Syracuse, falling well short of the Over/Under as Sam Howell struggled with his accuracy. ISUs Brock Purdy was already looking to replace impact receivers when his No. 1 target, Charlie Kolar, couldn’t get clearance from doctors to face Louisiana. ULL would go on to upset Iowa State with Purdy struggling like we’ve never seen from the talented QB.
We all want absolutes when we set DFS lineups. If a player is injured, we want to know about it yesterday when our hard-earned money is on the line. Getting all teams to comply with accurate injury reporting, however, is another story. In the NFL, teams will be fined massive amounts of money for failing to properly report injuries. The NCAA has not seen fit to instate similar regulations. The growing acceptance of sports gambling could be our shining light. As more individual U.S. states vote to allow the massively-popular pastime, the NCAA will face mounting pressure to indirectly assist CFB DFS junkies.
Until that bright, sunshining day, we can actually use that limitation to our advantage. Fantasy Points premium subscribers who follow our Discord DFS chat are aware that I am aiming to share my CFB DFS spreadsheet with everyone each week. We have a great group of ladies and gentlemen all looking to help one another to succeed. If we all simply work together to uncover any injury notes leading up to individual game times, we can get out ahead of the field to roster/sit players with late injury reporting, and decide upon their replacements.
A slight change to the format from last week. Rather than waiting for salaries to be released, I began research on Tuesday independent of player pricing. In addition, I have provided breakdowns of all games that will be played on Saturday. This article has thus evolved from a DFS exposure piece into The College Football DFS Field Guide for September 19th play. I’ve still provided the DraftKings and FanDuel main slate salaries that have been released up until the article is live on the site. I’ve also indicated the cash game plays from each Saturday matchup. Finally, the skeleton chart from last week consisting of players participating in this Saturday’s games with the most Developmental (Devy) value has matured into the Devy Asset Report. Even if you have never played in a Devy format, give it a read, I think you will enjoy it. Let’s dive into the action.
Tulsa @ Oklahoma State
Gametime: 12:00 PM ET
Location: Stillwater, Oklahoma
Betting line: Oklahoma State -22.5
Over/Under: 66.5
None of the seven other teams slated to begin play at noon ET can hold a candle up to the future NFL superstars taking the field for Oklahoma State. Canadian-born Chuba Hubbard eclipsed 2,000 rushing yards last season, providing glimpses of Thurman Thomas’ and Barry Sanders’ Heisman Trophy seasons with the Cowboys. New OC Kasey Dunn will likely mirror 2019’s ground plan of inside and outside zone-heavy run concepts. While Tulsa’s run defense played surprisingly well last season, Hubbard is like nothing they’ve faced. Chuba opened last season against Oregon State with 260 rushing yards and three TDs. He’s priced accordingly but will have zero issues providing multiples in value.
The Oklahoma State passing game also provides us with immense worth. Spencer Sanders will see the return of 2018 Biletnikoff Award finalist, Tylan Wallace. In contrast to the Golden Hurricanes’ stout run D, their expected, continued use of Cover 1 and Cover 4 shells under second-year DC Joseph Gillespie finished below 75 other teams. Sanders is explosive using both his arm and legs so, combined with the return of Wallace, the duo can be considered an optimal cash game stack. If you’re looking for salary relief from within the implied 44.5 points for the Cowboys, Dillon Stoner found a connection with Sanders for a late season rebirth from Weeks 10-14. LD Brown should see a healthy number of touches after Hubbard is done torching the Tulsa defense. Diving even deeper, Tulsa slot Keylon Stokes is likely to see a number of targets from Zach Smith as the game gets out of hand.
Chalk: Chuba Hubbard (DK: $8,500, FD: $10,400), Tylan Wallace (DK: $7,700, FD: $9,700), Spencer Sanders (DK: $7,600, FD: $9,600)
Cash: Hubbard and Wallace
Digging Deep: Dillon Stoner (DK: $5,800, FD: $7,800), LD Brown (DK: $5,000, FD: $5,600), Keylon Stokes (DK: $5,800, FD: $8,400)
On the fence: Sam Crawford Jr. (DK: $4,800, FD: $7,200)
Fade: Zach Smith (DK: $5,600, FD: $7,000), Shamari Brooks (DK: $4,900, FD: $8,100) and Corey Taylor II (DK: $4,200, FD: $6,000)
Devy Talents: Hubbard, Wallace, and Sanders
Austin Peay @ Cincinnati
Gametime: 12:00 PM ET
Location: Cincinnati, Ohio
Betting line: Cincinnati -33.5
Over/Under: 52.5
First things first, Luke Fickell’s Bearcat defense can always be counted upon for sheer ferocity. Do not get cute with an Austin Peay roster implied to score less than 10 points. We know Cincinnati will accumulate yards quickly as 33.5 point favorites. Desmond Ridder rushed for 790 yards and 5 TDs to go along with solid passing numbers last season. He should have a field day against the Governors’ man and Cover 4 zone shells. Ridder will likely find one-or-more Bearcat receivers for TD strikes. But I am not that excited about Alec Pierce at his price nor am I confident new starting TE Bruno Labelle will emerge this week.
However, the backfield oozes confidence. You can feel entirely self-assured in rostering either Gerrid Doaks or Jerome Ford. Both will see more than enough volume to cover their salaries. If you feel that both RBs will get their stats on the fly, Charles McClelland could be a tourney dart to target.
Chalk: Desmond Ridder (DK: $8,700), Gerrid Doaks (DK: $7,600), Jerome Ford (DK: $5,700)
Cash: Ridder, Doaks, and Ford
Digging Deep: Charles McClelland (DK: $4,200)
On the fence: Alec Pierce (DK: $7,900), Bruno Labelle (DK: $5,000)
Fade: Austin Peay Offense
Devy Talents: None
Louisiana @ Georgia State
Gametime: 12:00 PM ET
Location: Atlanta, Georgia
Betting line: Louisiana -17.0
Over/Under: 58.5
I was literally stunned when I saw the pricing for this game. Both Elijah Mitchell and Trey Ragas are priced under $6K and the same goes for new Georgia State, dual-threat QB Cornelious “Quad” Brown. I can understand keeping Brown’s salary low until he has some success under his belt, but it’s as if the pricing for ULL was carried forward from the Iowa State game. Both Ragin' Cajuns backs are former 1,000-yard rushers and Mitchell is an elite receiving threat. Georgia State’s defense is an overachieving group, zero shots intended. But Louisiana is entering the third season under OC Rob Sale. We know they will pound the ball until they break that defensive line. I will have maximum exposure to both RBs.
As for Brown, ULLs passing defense is a step ahead of their run D. To be honest, the same can be said for the state of a lot of schools in the FBS. There was fear that tackling would be an issue in NFL Week 1 without the usual tackling reps during the offseason. That never came to fruition, but I think it has at the College level. With his bottom-floor pricing, we do not need to stack Brown with any receivers. He is a dangerous man as a scrambling threat facing a defense that struggled to contain the run last season. Destin Coates was recently named the starter -- Seth Paige being removed from the two-deep entirely (transfer? COVID concerns?) -- making his 4.0-plus yards after contact average from last season a decent option. Oddly enough, the one Louisiana player to see that expected bump in salary is Peter LeBlanc. He had a great week against a P5 school, not denying that, and he could very well do so again this week. Not in my lineups at his price point with several others on the slate I plan to target.
Chalk: Elijah Mitchell (DK: $5,800), Trey Ragas (DK: $5,200), Cornelious Brown IV (DK: $5,200)
Cash: Mitchell and Ragas
Digging Deep: Levi Lewis (DK: $6,500), Destin Coates (DK: $5,000)
On the fence: Peter LeBlanc (DK: $7,000)
Fade: Georgia State Receivers
Devy Talents: None
Syracuse @ Pittsburgh
Gametime: 12:00 PM ET
Location: Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Betting line: Pittsburgh -22.0
Over/Under: 50.0
We saw the Syracuse defense play North Carolina’s explosive offense to a standstill during the first half last week. The UNC ground game finally pulled ahead in the second half to finish with 30 points, but they were the first defense to hold Sam Howell under two passing TDs. With that in mind, I am surprised to see Pittsburgh with an implied total of 36 points and as 22-point favorites. I am thoroughly in favor of throwing some cash down on Syracuse covering the spread. The Panthers’ passing offense has yet to find its footing with expected No. 1 receiver Taysir Mack just now beginning to return to health. And the running game, while excelling as a whole against Austin Peay (entirely expected), does not top anyone's list of feared backfields.
Stone me if I am wrong, but I see this as a game decided by the defenses. Both team’s quarterbacks have underachieved throughout their careers. Pittsburgh will deploy a committee of five RBs and Syracuses’ top-two backs opted out before the season. If you must have exposure to Pittsburgh, Vincent Davis was the back that popped off the screen in their first game of the season. True freshman slot Jordan Addison could provide ever-important salary relief along with PPR value on DraftKings after securing seven-of-eight targets against the Governors. I’m likely to wait another week to see if Mack has returned to full health.
Chalk: None
Cash: None
Digging Deep: Vincent Davis (DK: $5,000, FD: $7,500) Jordan Addison (DK: $3,500, FD: $6,700)
On the fence: Taysir Mack (DK: $6,300, FD: $8,000) and Taj Harris (DK: $5,900, FD: $7,500)
Fade: Both QBs
Devy Talents: None
Houston @ Baylor
Gametime: 12:00 PM ET
Location: Waco, Texas
Betting line: Baylor -4.0
Over/Under: 63
I want to believe that Houston will be able to maintain the scoring from Baylor as four-point ‘dogs. The DFS platforms want you to believe that, as well. Although, the strength of the Bears’ defense is an NFL-like, airtight Cover 3 secondary. We know OC Shannon Dawson will continue to deploy an Air Raid scheme. We simply have a problem. Look back to Clayton Tune’s ‘19 matchups versus Cincinnati & UCF and look past those against North Texas & Navy. When the Cougars’ passing attack stalled out, Tune was unable to gain those super important scrambling yards to elevate his floor. I will also be fading both Kyle Porter and Mulbah Car with Houston likely facing a negative script-scenario.
It could be risky to rely on Marquez Stevenson on FD at his insanely-high price, but I think he’ll be able to cover value on DKs due to sheer volume. On the other side, Charlie Brewer has an NFL arm and receiving talent in Tyquan Thornton. Time will tell if Thornton will be able to shake the Baylor WR-label. However, we do not need to wait. Both are firmly entrenched as rock-solid plays against a woeful Houston secondary. Looking further down the expected target-share list, R.J. Sneed has always been just on the cusp of DFS usefulness. This could be the beginning. The Bears have utilized a committee backfield the last few seasons and will need to see if new OC Larry Fedora plans to alter that strategy to earn my trust. Even still, John Lovett is not a terrible play in a game I believe Baylor obliterates the spread.
Chalk: Charlie Brewer (DK: $8,000, FD: $9,300), Tyquan Thornton (DK: $6,900, FD: $8,200), Marquez Stevenson (DK: $6,500, FD: $9,200)
Cash: None
Digging Deep: R.J. Sneed (DK: $6,200, FD: $7,600)
On the fence: Clayton Tune (DK: $7,000, FD: $8,200), John Lovett (DK: $6,200, FD: $8,000)
Fade: Houston RBs, Keith Corbin (DK: $4,900, FD: $7,100)
Devy Talents: Brewer and Thornton
Liberty @ Western Kentucky
Gametime: 12:00 PM ET
Location: Bowling Green, Kentucky
Betting line: Western Kentucky -14.5
Over/Under: 53.5
Auburn transfer Malik Willis was recently named the starter, replacing school legend Stephen “Buckshot” Calvert. The Liberty co-OCs remain in place, synchronizing their Air Raid for HC Hugh Freeze. However, Vegas insiders are anticipating that the Flames will run into a wall against WKUs robust Cover 4 secondary. Implied to score less than 20 points and as more than two TD underdogs, this might not be the week to expose your lineups to Liberty weapons. Since the Hilltoppers contained ULs Javian Hawkins to under 15 FPS last week, Joshua Mack is not on my target list. I do like the potential for C.J. Yarbough to see enough of a target share to possibly cover value (whenever salaries are released), but I would not get carried away.
Tyrrell Pigrome did surprisingly well against a tough Louisville defense last week. He’ll face a soft Cover 4 zone from Liberty that will boost his value against a four-to-five man pass rush. Pigrome scores a big chunk of his points on the ground, so I would temper expectations from Western Kentucky WRs until we have more data. I do not think the Liberty defense will be able to contain Gaej Walker. He could be in for a big game with WKU likely playing with a positive script.
Chalk: Tyrrell Pigrome, Gaej Walker
Cash: Pigrome and Walker
Digging Deep: C.J. Yarbrough
On the fence: Malik Willis,
Fade: Joshua Mack and WKU WRs
Devy Talents: None
Navy @ Tulane
Gametime: 12:00 PM ET
Location: New Orleans, Louisiana
Betting line: Tulane -7.0
Over/Under: 49.0
BYU put an embarrassing beatdown on Navy in their first game. The loss of Malcolm Perry from the offense cannot be understated. Perry Olsen has since entered the transfer portal and Dalen Morris looked terrible against the Cougars. I do believe HC Ken Niumatalolo will eventually find a QB who can move the triple-option offense but it will not be this week. In that 55-3 drumming, the Midshipmen permitted over 300 rushing yards at home, no less. This week, they’ll head into New Orleans to face a Tulane rushing attack that topped 200 rushing yards of their own last week versus South Alabama. The last two sentences should have the inner-processing of DFS brains in profit-mode.
Keon Howard is a far cry from an NFL Talent. As bad as that reads, it’s actually not an attack on the young man. The odds of even making an NFL practice squad are not in an NCAA athletes favor. But Howard provides us with plenty of DFS resourcefulness. The dual-threat QB faces a dreamy matchup against a poor run defense and without the ability of the offense to control the clock. As for the Green Wave running backs, Tyjae Spears is nearly guaranteed to top 100 rushing yards with receiving-upside, to boot. Tulane utilizes outside zone runs and counters to set up their power and same-side pull bread-and-butter. When facing weaker run defenses, they’re able to feed multiple backs with fantasy points. I expect their goal line back, Cameron Carroll, to score at least one TD. Starting A-Back Amare Jones could also produce enough to cover value.
Chalk: Keon Howard (DK: $6,100, FD: $8,100), Tyjae Spears (DK: $6,000, FD: $8,200)
Cash: Howard and Spears
Digging Deep: Cameron Carroll (DK: $4,000, FD: $7,700), Amare Jones (DK: $4,500, FD: $7,200)
On the fence: None
Fade: Navy Offense and Tulane Receivers
Devy Talents: None
Boston College @ Duke
Gametime: 12:00 PM ET
Location: Durham, North Carolina
Betting line: Duke -5.5
Over/Under: 52
One of the top secondary minds in the nation, new BC HC Jeff Hafley left Ohio State to run the show in Chestnut Hill. He brought NFL QB-whisperer, Frank Cignetti Jr. on as OC to help bring the Eagles’ results in line with their pride. The betting lines call for a tight game in Durham against Clemson-transfer Chase Brice. I was entirely impressed with Brice’s composure last week against Notre Dame’s elite defense. He wasn’t able to connect for any TDs, but he provided 10.1 FPS on the ground, and formed an instant connection with Noah Gray. It will take Hafley some time to recruit the athletes to rehabilitate his defense, so I anticipate the Eagles will continue last season's struggles in passing defense.
As for the BC offense, it was amazing to learn that Dennis Grosel is still considered as a co-starter at QB. Grosel served as the handoff specialist to A.J. Dillon last season without a single positive passing trait to his name. Former top-prospect Phil Jurkovec transferred in from Notre Dame, receiving an NCAA waiver to compete right away. Either the BC brass are paying respect to Grosel with the “co-” mention or Jurkovec has not impressed. Had Jurkovec been immediately named as the starter, intriguing talents such as Hunter Long and Ohio State-transfer Jaelin Gill would pop out as beneficiaries. Either way, David Bailey is one of the most exciting DFS backs in the ACC. He exploded whenever Dillon was out or limited and even proved to be an asset in the passing game.
Chalk: David Bailey (DK: $6,900, FD: $8,700)
Cash: Bailey
Digging Deep: Chase Brice (DK: $6,800, FD: $8,500), Noah Gray (DK: $4,500, FD: $6,800), Jaelen Gill (DK: $4,400, FD: $5,500), Hunter Long (DK: $4,700, FD: $6,500)
On the fence: Phil Jurkovec (DK: $6,000, FD: $7,800), Zay Flowers (DK: $5,500, FD: $6,500), Kobay White (DK: $4,800, FD: $7,400)
Fade: Dennis Grosel (DK: $5,000, FD: $6,800)
Devy Talents: Potentially Jurkovec and/or Bailey
South Florida @ Notre Dame
Gametime: 2:30 PM ET
Location: Notre Dame, Indiana
Betting line: Notre Dame -26.0
Over/Under: 50.0
USF will have their hands full against the nasty Notre Dame man coverage and swarming run defense. Fade the Bulls. South Florida is no slouch on defense, either. How last season's success translates against the Fighting Irish will be interesting to watch. However, Vegas believes this will be a lopsided game. And I agree that the 38 points implied in favor of Notre Dame and as near-four TD favorites are justified. Kyren Williams slapped a monster game on a solid Duke defense last week and is thoroughly in play within cash LUs. Despite Notre Dame’s PR department releasing a report that no skill position players would miss last week's game, Braden Lenzy and Ben Skowronek were held out with injuries. Lenzy will return this week but Skowronek will miss another game. Lenzy is the most talented WR on the roster, in my opinion.
I also like the fortunes of Avery Davis and Tommy Tremble to cover their salaries. Javon McKinley put up a dud against Duke, so I’m fading until further notice. Ian Book has some NFL potential, but is priced a bit too high to fit within ambitious LUs. Williams took the game over last week and the passing offense essentially took the rest of the game off. If the score gets out of hand fast, Chris Tyree could prove to be a slate-buster.
Chalk: Kyren Williams (DK: $8,400, FD: $10,000), Ian Book (DK: $8,200, FD: $10,200)
Cash: Williams
Digging Deep: Braden Lenzy (DK: $3,800, FD: $6,500), Chris Tyree (DK: $4,300, FD: $5,900), Avery Davis (DK: $5,100, FD: $7,600), Tommy Tremble (DK: $5,100, FD: $7,600)
On the fence: Javon McKinley (DK: $6,100, FD: $8,000)
Fade: USF Offense
Devy Talents: Williams, Tyree, Book, Lenzy, Tremble, and Michael Mayer
Stephen F. Austin @ UTSA
Gametime: 3:00 PM ET
Location: San Antonio, Texas
Betting line: UTSA -14.5
Over/Under: 53.5
Another matchup without salaries and that could remain the case. Not the sexiest of contests on paper pitting a team that finished last season at 4-8 with an FCS opponent that finished 3-9. Stephen F. Austin does actually offer a pair of potentially lower-priced talents in Da’Leon Ward and Tim Jones facing a pretty brutal UTSA defense. However, QB Trae Self is entirely without DFS upside.
UTSA is finally healthy, providing the results expected from Frank Harris. He accumulated 35.1 FPS, 24.5 on the ground, in their first game facing Texas State. He has the benefit of handing the rock to the uber-talented Sincere McCormick. They combine to define the Roadrunners’ offense. Both are slick plays in all formats.
Chalk: Frank Harris, Sincere McCormick
Cash: Harris and McCormick
Digging Deep: Joshua Cephus, Da’Leon Ward, Tim Jones
On the fence: None
Fade: Trae Self
Devy Talents: None
Charlotte @ North Carolina
Gametime: 3:30 PM ET
Location: Chapel Hill, North Carolina
Betting line: North Carolina -30.0
Over/Under: 60.0
We all saw how badly UNC struggled in the first half last week. Yes, the ground game eventually steamrolled Syracuse, but Sam Howell did not showcase the fireworks we’ve come to expect. Should we pivot from the passing offense or give them another chance? Charlotte will be without talented QB Chris Reynolds. They’ll, instead, roll out JUCO transfer Don Shoffner. This a matchup that I expect will overtake the dual-threat in his FBS debut. Without the ability to move the ball through the air, Tre Harbison III may face a good amount of stacked boxes.
I am of the belief that last week will prove to be an outlier for Howell. But I just don’t think he’ll pass the ball enough to cover his salary. Looking back at his ‘19, his results against Mercer stand out as an expectation. He connected on 11-of-14 passes for 220 yards and three TDs. That should be plenty enough for us to consider Dyami Brown or Daz Newsome. But the must-expose plays will, again, be Michael Carter and Javonte Williams.
Unfortunately, this game has been canceled by Charlotte due to COVID-related issues.
Chalk: Michael Carter (DK: $6,300, FD: $8,500), Javonte Williams (DK: $7,800, FD: $9,500), Dyami Brown (DK: $7,100, FD: $9,500), Daz Newsome (DK: $6,700, FD: $8,500)
Cash: Williams and Brown
Digging Deep: Beau Corrales (DK: $4,700, FD: $7,700)
On the fence: Sam Howell (DK: $9,000, FD: $10,500), Tre Harbison III (DK: $5,400, FD: $7,700)
Fade: Dom Shoffner (DK: $4,500, FD: $6,900) and Charlotte Receivers
Devy Talents: Howell, Brown, Newsome, Carter, Williams, and Downs
UCF @ Georgia Tech
Gametime: 3:30 PM ET
Location: Atlanta, Georgia
Betting line: UCF -7.5
Over/Under: 60.5
This has the making of an exciting matchup. Georgia Tech’s Jeff Sims enjoyed a breakout game last week in an upset win over FSU. The Elite 11 QB not only displayed remarkable accuracy and poise for a true freshman debut, he gave us 6.3 FPS with his legs. We will see a lot of scoring from an expected 60.5 combined points. The Yellow Jackets are also 7.5-point underdogs, lending to a negative script in the second half. Jordan Mason will be in play as GT feeds their talented back. I’m not comfortable pinpointing a No. 1 target for Sims just yet, but Malachi Carter and Jalen Camp are far from the worst plays.
UCF will have to wait a few more weeks for the return of McKenzie Milton. Dillon Gabriel will continue to lead the offense against a defense that surprised FSU by bottling up their backfield while shutting down James Blackman (21.7 QB Rating). That will not be the result against the Knights’ potent attack. UCF relies on counters and pulling guards to slice through opposing defenses with a talented backfield. Otis Anderson is a rock-solid play as their top back. I also love the potential of Tre Nixon and Marlon Williams. They can be relied upon to multiply value, in my expectation. Dillon’s limited ground work lowers his upside.
Chalk: Jeff Sims (DK: $5,300, FD: $8,100), Jordan Mason (DK: $5,600, FD: $8,200), Otis Anderson (DK: $6,100, FD: $7,800), Tre Nixon (DK: $6,800, FD: $8,600), Marlon Williams (DK: $5,700, FD: $7,200)
Cash: Sims
Digging Deep: Jamious Griffin (DK: $3,900, FD: $6,500), Malachi Carter (DK: $4,700, FD: $8,100), Jalen Camp (DK: $4,700, FD: $6,600), Flash Robinson (DK: $4,200, FD: $7,200)
On the fence: Dillon Gabriel (DK: $7,400, FD: $9,200)
Fade: None
Devy Talents: Sims, Anderson, and McKenzie Milton (health permitting)
Appalachian State @ Marshall
Gametime: 3:30 PM ET
Location: Huntington, West Virginia
Betting line: Appalachian State -4.5
Over/Under: 59.0
These teams appear to be evenly-matched on paper. Both feature intimidating defenses, but I give the edge to the Mountaineers’ mad-man approach toward punishing everyone who touches the ball. Both secondaries also employ Cover 4-heavy shells with impressive track records. Thus, I’ll be fading both QBs entirely. Each of Marcus Williams, Daetrich Harrington, and Brenden Knox are likely to produce much of the offense with plenty of volume. Thomas Hennigan is a decent play after putting 26 FPS on Charlotte. Only 4.5 points separate these teams in Vegas’ estimation. I foresee the passing upside as limited with backfield touches dominating the statlines.
Chalk: Marcus Williams (DK: $4,800, FD: $8,500), Daetrich Harrington (DK: $5,100, FD: $8,300), Branden Knox (DK: $7,200, FD: $8,800), Thomas Hennigan (DK: $6,000, FD: $8,800)
Cash: None
Digging Deep: Xavier Gaines (DK: $4,600, FD: $7,000)
On the fence: Grant Wells (DK: 6,300, FD: $9,000)
Fade: Zac Thomas (DK: $6,900, FD: $8,700), Camerun Peoples (DK: $4,600, FD: $7,400)
Devy Talents: None
Florida Atlantic @ Georgia Southern
Gametime: 3:30 PM ET
Location: Statesboro, Georgia
Betting line: Florida Atlantic -1.0
Over/Under: 47.5
I’ve attempted to cover all of my research bases on FAU, yet I could not find much information at all detailing their new offense. We know B.J. Emmons will be involved with three other backs potentially stealing carries. I like the potential of incoming transfers Aaron Young (Duke) and T.J. Chase (Clemson). I am undecided, however, on the potential of Nick Tronti. Georgia Southern was vulnerable to the pass and Tronti did do some legwork in relief last season. With salaries yet to be released, I cannot truly gauge any of the Owls’ potential value.
The Eagles’ offense, on the other hand, is not difficult to interpret. They run the ball, then they hand it off, and top that groundwork off with more runs up the middle. Shai Werts loves to keep the ball for himself, racking up a near two-to-one ratio of rushing-to-passing FPS. Wesley Kennedy III is set to return after missing their first game and he’ll share the majority of RB carries with J.D. King.
Chalk: Shai Werts, B.J. Emmons
Cash: None
Digging Deep: Wesley Kennedy III, J.D. King, Aaron Young
On the fence: T.J. Chase, Nick Tronti
Fade: Georgia Southern WRs
Devy Talents: Emmons
The Citadel @ Clemson
Gametime: 4:00 PM ET
Location: Clemson, South Carolina
Betting line: Clemson -48.5
Over/Under: 61.5
Hard not to feel sorry for the Bulldogs. Clemson is, hands down, one of the top-three teams in the nation. Sure the school will likely pull in some much needed cash, but Vegas insiders imply The Citadel will fail to score a single TD. Whereas Clemson is expected to exceed 50 points. I’ve listed Tigers aplenty to peruse at your leisure as chalk plays and tourney darts. I would not recommend exposing too many of your cash lineups with Clemson players, sans Travis Etienne. Look back to last season when Trevor Lawrence and Co. faced Wafford. Eerily reminiscent of Sam Howell facing Mercer, Lawrence completed 12-of-16 attempts for 218 yards and 3 TDs. But he also ran for 33 yards and another TD. Lawrence simply cannot be written off due to the vanilla matchup.
In that same game, Etienne racked up 212 rushing yards and a pair of TDs on only nine first-half carries. Exposure is a must. I’m less certain about the expected return of Lyn-J Dixon from injury. He didn’t come close to Etienne’s numbers against Wofford and may only see a handful of carries. I think Amari Rodgers and, maybe, Joseph Ngata could be solid tourney plays, but none of the receivers should come anywhere close to cash game LUs. They may score, but you’ll certainly pay for them. I’m somewhat intrigued by the idea of D.J. Uiagalelei seeing some extended second-half run.
Chalk: Trevor Lawrence (DK: $9,700), Travis Etienne (DK: $9,200), Amari Rodgers (DK: $8,300), Joseph Ngata (DK: $7,400)
Cash: Etienne
Digging Deep: Lyn-J Dixon (DK: $5,600), Braden Galloway (DK: $4,500), Frank Ladson Jr. (DK: $5,000)
On the fence: D.J. Uiagalelei (DK: $6,000)
Fade: The Citadel Offense
Devy Talents: Lawrence, Uiagalelei, Etienne, Bowman, Dixon, Ngata, Rodgers, Ladson, Ajou Ajou, and Galloway
Troy @ Middle Tennessee
Gametime: 4:00 PM ET
Location: Murfreesboro, Tennessee
Betting line: Troy -3.5
Over/Under: 64.5
Allow me to express that I am giving Asher O’Hara a pass for the Army game. We have no idea of the extent of MTSU practicing this offseason in combination with their top-two RBs opting out of the season. Playing this game in Murfreesboro against a mid-tier defense should provide O’Hara with an opportunity to succeed with his legs for a rebound performance. The Vegas lines suggest they agree.
This should be a high-scoring affair. As long as Troy doesn’t pull away, which would result in O’Hara being replaced by Chase Cunningham, we have a plethora of options available. If Cunningham does take over, D.J. England-Chisolm would see a boost in value. Troy is led by target-hog Kaylon Geiger and the multidimensional B.J. Smith returning from injury. Gunnar Watson could also be a slate-busting play… as long as this matchup is actually added to a DFS slate. If Watson comes out dropping bombs in the Trojans’ fast-paced offense, Reggie Todd and Khalil McClain will have been worthy darts.
Chalk: Asher O’Hara, Gunnar Watson, B.J. Smith, Kaylon Geiger
Cash: O’Hara, Watson, Smith, and Geiger
Digging Deep: D.J. England-Chisolm, Reggie Todd, Khalil McClain
On the fence: None
Fade: Middle Tennessee RBs
Devy Talents: None
SMU @ North Texas
Gametime: 6:00 PM ET
Location: Denton, Texas
Betting line: SMU -14.0
Over/Under: 70.0
Seeing that 70 Over/Under on the board should get your attention. But don’t get too carried away with single team, quadruple-or-more stacked LUs. Plenty of FPS can be accumulated from a good majority of the Saturday matchups. Just don’t let that make you think I’m not investing in this game. Shane Buechele was only able to connect on a single TD pass at Texas State. Although, he topped 350 yards passing, and fed three different receivers with solid games. He’ll target Reggie Roberson Jr. often for what will likely be a big game against North Texas’ zone coverages. Rashee Rice is also an impressive talent in line for a big season. When you stack your lineups, combining these three is a great option. On the ground, T.J. McDaniel will handle the lion's share of carries against a vulnerable Mean Green run D.
North Texas is running with a QB committee consisting of Jason Bean and Austin Aune. Aune will see less snaps, but he takes just enough away from Bean’s upside to leave us with a difficult decision. I like the receiving options as standalone plays while fading Bean. I think Jaelen Darden is going to blow up in this spot. North Texas will need to carry a fast pace to match the scoring of SMU. Jyaire Shorter is also on the radar. The North Texas RBs provide us with a tough nut to crack. So much so that I’m leaning toward fading them both.
Chalk: Shane Buechele (FD: $10,100), T.J. McDaniel (FD: $9,000), Jaelen Darden (FD: $8,700), Reggie Roberson Jr. (FD: $9,800), Rashee Rice (FD: $8,300)
Cash: Buechele, McDaniel, Darden, Roberson, and Rice
Digging Deep: Jyaire Shorter (FD: $6,800), Danny Gray (FD: $6,100), Kylen Granson (FD: $6,700)
On the fence: Jason Bean (FD: $8,900), Tre Siggers (FD: $7,200), DeAndre Torrey (FD: $6,800)
Fade: Austin Aune (FD: $6,700)
Devy Talents: Roberson
Miami @ Louisville
Gametime: 7:30 PM ET
Location: Louisville, Kentucky
Betting line: Louisville -2.5
Over/Under: 64.5
D’Eriq King’s debut performance against UAB fell well short of his insane FPS totals with Houston. He did enough to secure the win, but Cam’Ron Harris stole the show. The Hurricanes are scripted as underdogs, leaving hope that King may be forced to pull out all the stops. Based on last season, the Cardinals are also more vulnerable to the run than the pass. King did find Brevin Jordan for his lone passing TD. Jordan is another Miami player that could blow up within a negative game script.
Micale Cunningham checked all of the boxes as a solid DFS QB against WKU. He generated 32.6 FPS with 8.9 provided with his legs. We didn’t see Tutu Atwell with a huge statline since one TD went to Dez Fitzpatrick and the other two to TEs. Atwell will get to eat this week facing Miami’s Cover 1 and Cover 3 secondary. I also think Javian Hawkins will find more room this week, I just don’t feel like it’ll be enough to cover his salary. If Fitzpatrick has another strong game, he will give the UofL offense the missing weapon toward full-on DFS juggernaut status.
Chalk: D’Eriq King (DK: $8,000, FD: $10,300), Cam’Ron Harris (DK: $8,500, FD: $9,300), Javian Hawkins (DK: $6,300, FD: $8,400), Brevin Jordan (DK: $5,600, FD: $7,900), Tutu Atwell (DK: $6,600, FD: $8,900)
Cash: King, Harris, and Atwell
Digging Deep: Mike Harley (DK: $6,300, FD: $7,100), Dez Fitzpatrick (DK: $6,200, FD: $7,900)
On the fence: Micale Cunningham (DK: $7,700, FD: $9,900)
Fade: Hassan Hall (DK: $4,100, FD: $5,700)
Devy Talents: Atwell, Jordan, Harris, and King
Louisiana Tech @ Southern Miss
Gametime: 7:30 PM ET
Location: Hattiesburg, Mississippi
Betting line: Southern Miss -5.0
Over/Under: 57.5
Both Louisiana Tech (Joe Sloan) and Southern Miss (Matt Kubik) named new OCs this offseason. Luckily, if you’re uncomfortable projecting either offense, the mid-tier Over/Under will provide the option of pivoting from the matchup entirely. Jack Abraham is always game to approach 300 passing yards and he’ll see the return of Tim Jones at flanker. Jones could find double-digit targets coming his way. Don Ragsdale put up astrological, video game numbers in HS. I’ll be all over him despite facing a disciplined Bulldogs’ defense.
Louisiana Tech is reportedly going with the dreaded timeshare at QB. Steer clear. That goes for their QBs and WRs while they work the situation out. Justin Henderson will likely carry this offense on his back. He exploded last season to become one of the most consistent backs in the country. Keep in mind that the Golden Eagles are equipped with an imposing run defense of their own. But Henderson is also a significant receiving threat that provides him with more than one avenue for success.
Chalk: Tim Jones (DK: $7,000), Justin Henderson (DK: $8,100), Don Ragsdale (DK: $6,700)
Cash: Jones, Henderson, and Ragsdale
Digging Deep: Jason Brownlee(DK: $6,000)
On the fence: Adrian Hardy (DK: $6,400), Isaiah Graham (DK: $3,800), Jack Abraham (DK: $7,300)
Fade: Louisiana Tech QBs
Devy Talents: Henderson
Texas State @ Louisiana-Monroe
Gametime: 7:30 PM ET
Location: Monroe, Louisiana
Betting line: Texas State -6.0
Over/Under: 63.0
It won’t be pretty, but these teams are going to score. Tyler Vitt will lead the Bobcats against a porous ULM defense. Arizona State-transfer Brock Sturges has emerged from the backfield as a dangerous, multidimensional threat. Despite the solid matchup, Vitt has not tapped into his running abilities enough for us to give him serious consideration. One of Jah’Marae Sheread, Jeremiah Haydel, or Marcell Barbee could end up producing for Texas State. The Warhawks’ offense will center entirely around Josh Johnson. While the Texas State defense is not one to take lightly, Johnson is provided with the type of touches that make him a must play in all non-P5 matchups.
Chalk: Josh Johnson (DK: $5,900), Brock Sturges (DK: $6,200)
Cash: Johnson and Sturges
Digging Deep: Jeremiah Haydel (DK: $4,600), Jah’Marae Sheread (DK: $5,100), Josh Pederson (DK: $4,900)
On the fence: Tyler Vitt (DK: $7,100)
Fade: Colby Suits (DK: $5,800)
Devy Talents: Johnson
Wake Forest @ NC State
Gametime: 8:00 PM ET
Location: Raleigh, North Carolina
Betting line: NC State -2.5
Over/Under: 53.0
Sam Hartman actually played reasonably well last week against Clemson. No, he was not successful from a DFS perspective. But he remained composed in the face of a massive step up in athletic talent. He also showcased a useful connection with Taylor Morin out of the slot. Hartman will not be facing the Tigers this week as will be heading into Raleigh. I’ll have several Hartman-Morin tournament stacks on Saturday. As for the backfield, while I believe Kenneth Walker III possesses the talent to run away with the job, OC Warren Ruggiero has an annoying belief in Christian Beal-Smith’s abilities.
Expectations for the Wolfpack need to be tempered as long as Devin Leary is leading the offense. Leary was pathetically-overmatched last season against Wake. Perhaps he has improved. I'll not put my money on the line in support. However, NC State’s backfield is led by two exciting young talents, Ricky Person Jr. and Zonovan Knight. With the passing offense handicapped, both Person and Knight make for decent tourney plays.
Chalk: Sam Hartman (DK: $6,300, FD: $8,000), Ricky Person Jr. (DK: $5,300, FD: $7,300), Zonovan Knight (DK: $5,000, FD: $7,100), Taylor Morin (DK: $4,600, FD: $6,900)
Cash: Hartman and Morin
Digging Deep: Kenneth Walker III (DK: $5,500, FD: $6,500), Jaquarii Roberson (DK: $4,400, FD: $7,000), Emeka Emezie (DK: $6,100, FD: $7,800)
On the fence: Christian Beal-Smith (DK: $5,100, FD: $6,700)
Fade: Devin Leary (DK: $6,800, FD: $7,500)
Devy Talents: Sage Surratt, Person, and Knight
Abilene Christian @ UTEP
Gametime: 9:00 PM ET
Location: El Paso, Texas
Betting line: UTEP -4.5
Over/Under: 54.5
Last and probably least, we have yet another matchup against an FCS opponent. Unlike the others, here we find that the FBS team is not heavily-favored. UTEP is fresh off being humiliated by Sam Ehlinger’s Longhorns. Should the Miners find a way to lose this one, they’ll have reached rock bottom. UTEP refers to their backfield as a three-way timeshare, but this is actually the Deion Hankins show. His upside is somewhat limited by a lack of passing game involvement. I do think Hankins would slice up the Wildcats, but he has been limited by an undisclosed injury in practice. Further monitoring will be required.
Gavin Hardison provides nothing on the ground for DFS purposes. However, he might feed his two favorite receivers just enough for us to take notice. Justin Garrett and Jacob Cowing have collected two-thirds of Hardison’s receptions. If you want to target UTEP receivers, these are your guys. As for Abilene Christian, they are implied to score 25 points. Jermiah Dobbins did great work on the ground and through the air for Estacado HS. The true freshman has been named the starting back and will face a sieve-like run defense from UTEP.
Chalk: Deion Hankins (DK: $6,500), Justin Garrett (DK: $5,800), Jacob Cowing (DK: $5,200), Jermiah Dobbins (DK: $4,900)
Cash: Hankins and Cowing
Digging Deep: Kobe Clark (DK: $5,300), Walter Dawn Jr. (DK: $4,600)
On the fence: Gavin Hardison (DK: $6,600)
Fade: Peyton Mansell (DK: $5,500) and Sema’J Davis (DK: $6,100)
Devy Talents: None
Devy Asset Report
If you’ve yet to participate in a Devy league, you really need to take the plunge. No other season-long fantasy format will put your knowledge/skills to the test. The good news is that, since you’re reading this, you are likely familiar with the top athletes college football has to offer. And a keen knowledge of college players will always trump the skills of NFL experts. Even if you aren’t yet comfortable with college rosters, you can always find other beginners to experience the fun of starting a Devy league together.
Each week, I will delve into the matchups to pluck out the Devy assets with the highest upside for (1) being drafted within the opening rounds of the NFL draft, and (2) those who possess the athleticism to actually help your NFL rosters succeed. Let’s take a look…
Quarterback
Trevor Lawrence | Clemson Tigers
Class: True Junior
Measurements: 6-6/220
40-Time: 4.78 seconds
Vertical: 28.3 inches
Sparq: 90.69
No QB at the college level can match Lawrence’s collection of abilities. Yes, he has the prototypical frame coveted by NFL scouts. But just being tall will not guarantee success at the next level. Equipped with a canon for an arm and a tight delivery, Lawrence is comfortable targeting all three levels of the field. Lawrence posted a 52-2 record at Cartersville High, including a 41-game winning streak, and two Georgia state titles. During his senior season, Trevor found a home for 41 TDs to only a single INT. As a true freshman with Clemson, Lawrence led the Tigers to a 15-0 record, unseating defending champion Alabama for the national title. He led Clemson to 29 straight victories before losing to Joe Burrow’s LSU program in the national championship. When in the market for a Devy QB, Lawrence is the cream of the crop.
Others deserving consideration: D.J. Uiagalelei | Clemson | True Freshman, Sam Howell | North Carolina | True Sophomore, and Spencer Sanders | Oklahoma State | Redshirt Sophomore
Running Back
Travis Etienne | Clemson Tigers
Class: True Senior
Measurements: 5-10/205
40-Time: 4.43 seconds
Vertical: 37.3 inches
Sparq: 116.94
You’ll begin to notice a trend while reading through these players. HC Dabo Swinney has assembled one of the top-three rosters in the nation. Clemson fields the top QB in the country and the top RB in Etienne. During his senior season at Jennings High, Etienne averaged 11.7 yards per rushing attempt, accumulating 2,459 yards and 39 total TDs. Etienne compiled 7,518 rushing yards -- 179/game -- during his HS career. When Travis reached Clemson, South Carolina, he seized the starting role as a true freshman, rushing for 766 yards and 13 TDs. Far from a one-trick pony, Etienne is highly-skilled both in pass protection and as a receiving threat. If you are eying Etienne in Devy drafts, be prepared to select him first overall.
Chuba Hubbard | Oklahoma State Cowboys
Class: Redshirt Junior
Measurements: 6-0/208
40-Time: 4.39 seconds
Vertical: Unknown
Sparq: Did not compete
Hailing from Sherwood Park, Alberta, Canada, Hubbard is a three-time national champion in the 100 meters. Chuba accumulated 6,880 yards on the ground and 82 TDs for Bev Facey HS. He took over as the Cowboys’ bell-cow back during his redshirt freshman season after Justice Hill was lost to injury. A prelude to future success, Hubbard averaged over 100 yards/game over the rest of that season. However, Hubbard kicked himself into high gear the following year, racking up 2,094 rushing yards, first-team All American honors, and Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year. Hubbard chose to return to school for a final season when he would’ve been a shoe-in as one of the top RBs selected in the 2020 draft. Landing Hubbard in Devy drafts will ease the pain of missing out on Etienne.
Others deserving consideration: Demarkcus Bowman | Clemson | True Freshman, Kyren Williams | Notre Dame | True Sophomore, and Lyn-J Dixon | Clemson | True Junior
Wide Receiver
Tylan Wallace | Oklahoma State Cowboys
Class: Redshirt Senior
Measurements: 6-0/190
40-Time: 4.58 seconds
Vertical: 34.1
Sparq: 97.95
Were it not for a knee injury derailing his 2019 season, Wallace would have likely declared for the draft. He would have added another elite weapon to the outstanding wide receiver class selected during the 2020 draft. His receiving totals during his time at South Hills HS -- 182/3,760/48 -- rank among the top 15 receivers in Texas HS history. Tylan broke out during his true sophomore season in Stillwater for 1,491 receiving yards. He has eclipsed 100 yards 11 times over the last two seasons. Assuming Wallace is able to return to form from the knee injury, he should have no issues carrying over his masterful success to the next level.
Chatarius “Tutu” Atwell | Louisville Cardinals
Class: True Junior
Measurements: 5-9/165
40-Time: 4.50 seconds
Vertical: 39.3
Sparq: 111.24
Atwell may be the smallest player on this list but don’t think for a second that his explosive athleticism isn’t suited for the next level. Atwell actually cut his teeth at Miami Northwestern High as a dual-threat QB while leading his team to the FHSAA 6A state title. He burst onto the scene last year as Louisville's No. 1 receiver, pacing the ACC with 1,276 receiving yards and 12 TDs.
Dyami Brown | North Carolina Tar Heels
Class: True Junior
Measurements: 6-1/185
40-Time: 4.47 seconds
Vertical: 32.3
Sparq: Unknown
UNC HC Mack Brown’s impressive success during his coaching comeback can be attributed to Sam Howell’s accurate passing and Brown’s reliable hands. Brown was a two-way player for West Mecklenburg HS as a receiver and defensive back. During the ‘19 season, Brown assaulted the ACC with 1,034 receiving yards and 12 TDs. Another big statistical season in 2020 would potentially assure Brown is selected on Day 1, should he declare, of course.
Others deserving consideration: Joseph Ngata | Clemson | True Sophomore, Amari Rodgers | Clemson | True Sophomore, Ajou Ajou | Clemson | True Freshman, Frank Ladson Jr. | Clemson | True Sophomore, Dazz Newsome | North Carolina | True Senior, and Tyquan Thornton | Baylor | True Junior
Tight End
Brevin Jordan | Miami Hurricanes
Class: True Junior
Measurements: 6-3/245
40-Time: 4.78 seconds
Vertical: 27.9
Sparq: 97.26
Jordan posted a 63/1,111/13 statistical line during his senior season at Bishop Gorman HS that culminated with the school’s ninth consecutive Nevada State Championship. Jordan is widely-regarded as one of the top TEs in the nation. Darrell Jordan, Brevin’s father, was selected in the 1990 NFL Draft by the Atlanta Falcons. Miami has suffered through sporadic play at QB during Jordan’s first two years on campus. That hasn’t stopped him from showcasing his athleticism while collecting first-team All-ACC honors in 2019.
Others deserving consideration: Braden Galloway | Clemson | True Junior and Tommy Tremble | Notre Dame | Redshirt Sophomore
