Week 16 SNF Showdown

General Rule for Creating Showdown/MVP Lineups

1. Correlate with your Captain/MVP - Make sure you are creating a roster that makes sense with your 1.5x player.
2. On DraftKings, lean RB/WR in the captain. Though QB can finish as the optimal captain, it’s often overused by the field relative to its success rate. When you are using a QB in the captain, I like to use a lot of his pass-catchers. Because the likely scenario if a QB ends up as the captain on DK is he spread his touchdowns around to multiple receivers and not one skill player had a ceiling game.
3. On FanDuel the MVP spot doesn’t cost you 1.5x salary which means you’re just trying to get the highest scoring player in that spot. Contrary to DK, it’s often the QB because of the scoring system. I would lean QB/RB on FD, but there are always exceptions to the rule.
4. Leave salary on the table - I’m not just talking about a few hundred. Don’t be afraid to leave a few thousand on the table. In a slate that has an extremely limited number of viable options, there is a much greater chance for lineup duplication. It may not seem like much of an issue, but it can decimate your expected value to put in lineups that are going to split with 500 other people.
5. Multi-enter if you can. Single-game slates have so much variance that the first play of the game can take you completely out of contention if you only have one lineup. It’s best to build a bunch of lineups (you don’t have to max enter) that concentrates on different game scripts and a handful of different correlated captains.
6. DST and Kickers, while not very exciting usually offer a solid floor for cheap. Especially in game scripts that go under expected point totals. I would only use at most two per lineup.
7. When creating single-game lineups, the most important part is creating correlated lineups according to a projected game script, and not pinpointing the exact five or six players who will score the most fantasy points on the slate.

Captain/MVP

Unlike a situation like Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers or Jared Goff and the Rams, Aaron Rodgers and the Packers have such a concentrated target share on one player that it makes much more sense to roster Davante Adams. With a 34% air yards share and a 37% target share, Adams routinely outscores Rodgers thanks to the scoring system. They are both viable captains, both Adams will land in the optimal lineup more often due to his usage. Aaron Jones’ usage has ticked up over the last few weeks. He was averaging between 50-60% of snaps, but saw 70% two weeks again and 90% last week along with 20 carries. He gets enough usage in the passing game that he correlates decently with Rodgers, but I think you leverage Adams and Jones against each other in your lineups. There probably isn’t room for both of them to go off and hit value at their salaries. There have been games, though they’ve been few and far between, that an ancillary pass-catcher outperforms Adams or Jones relative to salary in a showdown format. Robert Tonyan has multi-touchdown upside and has basically scored every week he’s been in the lineup. To a lesser extent, Allen Lazard and Marquez Valdes-Scantling offer captain appeal on DraftKings because they allow for a more balanced lineup. If you roster Lazard, who has a 30 point DraftKings game to his name this year, or MVS you can fit in an extra mid-tier player instead of putting the last spot in your lineup and hoping for a luckbox touchdown. MVS has a 27% air yard share over the last three weeks so he has a legitimate shot at catching a deep shot or two and winding up as the optimal captain, though it’s much more likely it’s Davante or one of the two Aarons.

The Titans are pretty concentrated as well. Ryan Tannehill has been feeding A.J. Brown and Corey Davis to the tune of a combined 47% target share and a 66% air yard share. I actually prefer the price savings on Corey Davis in the captain spot as I think at this point, their target and air yard shares are close enough that they have about the same probability of going off on any given slate. Tannehill has rushing upside, in the fact that he often is given the option to call his own number at the goal line which makes him a viable captain as well. However, we’re ignoring the elephant in the room here, and that’s Derrick Henry. The Packers’ main defensive strategy this season has been to focus on stopping opposing teams’ passing games, which has resulted in them giving up massive games to running backs. We know it’s December and the Titans are going to feed the big dog. He obviously has to be part of your captain pool, though I do think there is merit to putting someone like Tannehill or Davis in there in hopes that it’’s a game in which touchdown variance strikes. We’ve seen games this year where Henry gets massive usage, but it just so happens that Tannehill throws a few touchdowns in close instead of Henry bulling his way in. That is definitely a possibility this week.

Flex

With Jamaal Williams doubtful to suit up, A.J. Dillion should get a bit of work at his lowly price tag. Realistically, we’re hoping for him to fall into the end zone which immediately gives him 3x his salary on DraftKings. On the other side of the ball, I wouldn’t get my hopes up for Darrynton Evans or Jeremy McNichols to get meaningful work. Evans plays a bit on passing downs and McNichols seems to be the direct rushing backup to Henry, but they aren’t going to rotate in much outside of a blowout. Because I don’t envision this game getting out of hand to a point that Evans or McNichols replace Henry, it’s safe to say you can exclude them from your player pool unless you are 150 maxing and want a sprinkle of them as the last man in leverage off a blowout or Henry injury.

The Packers’ tertiary pieces don’t often get involved outside of the players mentioned in the captain section. Marcedes Lewis sees the occasional throwback pass at the goal line for a potential touchdown, so he can be a last man candidate if you need a $200 filler on DraftKings. Equanimeous St. Brown has a catch in each of the last four games, so there is potential that he is needed for an optimal lineup if he unlocks a roster combination that is only accessible with a player at his price tag and he subsequently outscores everyone in that range.

The Titans’ pass-catchers outside of Brown and Davis can be tricky. Adam Humphries is on IR so there really isn’t a third receiver in the mix for the Titans, Cameron Batson is in the same boat as St. Brown in that he can be the last man in if you are desperate for an absolute punt, but the only way he is finding the optimal lineup is if he unlocks the exact lineup combination, I doubt he’ll be the leading scorer of the under $2,000 crowd. The rest is basically pick-your-favorite-tight-end. Jonnu Smith is the obvious number one option for the Titans, but you are going to pay for him. He hasn’t been stellar as Davis and Brown loom large over the target share, but he has seen at least five targets in the last four games he’s suited up for, which has to count for something. Anthony Firkser on the other is extremely cheap and is on the field enough to pay off that salary at a higher rate than Jonnu at his salary in my opinion. Firkser has seen most of his action when Smith is off the field, but a goal-line touchdown smashes value for Firkser where Jonnu will need a touchdown plus some catches and yards to hit value. Geoff Swaim has two games of 3-30 in his last three outings which is more than enough to hit optimal lineups at the bare minimum salary.

Lineup Starters

Captain/MVP: Derrick Henry

Flex: Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams, Anthony Firkser

Captain/MVP: Aaron Jones

Flex: Derrick Henry, Corey Davis, Ryan Tannehill

Captain/MVP: Aaron Rodgers

Flex: A.J. Brown, Allen Lazard, Robert Tonyan

Captain/MVP: Davante Adams

Flex: Aaron Rodgers, Corey Davis, A.J. Dillon

Captain/MVP: Marquez Valdes-Scantling

Flex: Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones, Derrick Henry

Captain/MVP: Corey Davis

Flex: Davante Adams, Ryan Tannehill, Jonnu Smith