Week 15 SNF Showdown

General Rule for Creating Showdown/MVP Lineups

1. Correlate with your Captain/MVP - Make sure you are creating a roster that makes sense with your 1.5x player.
2. On DraftKings, lean RB/WR in the captain. Though QB can finish as the optimal captain, it’s often overused by the field relative to its success rate. When you are using a QB in the captain, I like to use a lot of his pass-catchers. Because the likely scenario if a QB ends up as the captain on DK is he spread his touchdowns around to multiple receivers and not one skill player had a ceiling game.
3. On FanDuel the MVP spot doesn’t cost you 1.5x salary which means you’re just trying to get the highest scoring player in that spot. Contrary to DK, it’s often the QB because of the scoring system. I would lean QB/RB on FD, but there are always exceptions to the rule.
4. Leave salary on the table - I’m not just talking about a few hundred. Don’t be afraid to leave a few thousand on the table. In a slate that has an extremely limited number of viable options, there is a much greater chance for lineup duplication. It may not seem like much of an issue, but it can decimate your expected value to put in lineups that are going to split with 500 other people.
5. Multi-enter if you can. Single-game slates have so much variance that the first play of the game can take you completely out of contention if you only have one lineup. It’s best to build a bunch of lineups (you don’t have to max enter) that concentrates on different game scripts and a handful of different correlated captains.
6. DST and Kickers, while not very exciting usually offer a solid floor for cheap. Especially in game scripts that go under expected point totals. I would only use at most two per lineup.
7. When creating single-game lineups, the most important part is creating correlated lineups according to a projected game script, and not pinpointing the exact five or six players who will score the most fantasy points on the slate.

Captain/Flex

Baker Mayfield notching two straight 30+ point DraftKings games will put him in the captain slot of many lineups, however I don’t know if the Giants have the firepower to push the Browns’ offense like they were in the last two games. If we are slotting in Baker, he correlates well with Kareem Hunt and Jarvis Landry. Hunt showed that in a shootout type atmosphere he is going to get on the field and be targeted by Baker. I’m not sure how likely a shootout is in this game, but if you’re crafting that type of lineup I’d make sure to correlate Hunt and Baker. Landry didn’t have a smash game last week, but has still seen 30 targets over his last three games. I think this is a good spot to take advantage of some decency bias and put Landry in the captain slot of a few lineups if you are mass multi-entering. With Beckham off the field his target share numbers have been through the roof it’s just a matter of converting on them like he did in Week 13 against the Titans. The ultimate captain play this week for me is Nick Chubb. The game script of a Browns lopsided win or at least a game in which they control for the majority of the contest favors Chubb’s bruising running style. In the Browns game against the Titans in which they raced to lead and held it for the entire game, not only did Chubb see his usual 18-20 carries, but he was involved in the passing game as well by virtue of being in the field more. The Giants give up the 26th most fantasy points to running backs, so Chubb is in a great spot here. Despite the game flow projected, the vast majority of your lineups should have at least one Browns’ running back rostered.

The Giants are a different story as they are starting Colt McCoy at quarterback. I don’t necessarily think McCoy is going to be worth a captain spot, I just don’t think he has the ceiling at his price to get there. Can he support one pass-catcher from the Giants? Maybe. Wayne Gallman makes for an interesting play if you think the Giants can keep this game somewhat within reach. The Giants only gave Gallman 12 carries last week in a game that the Cardinals stymied their offense. Before that game, Gallman was getting elite RB usage including a 24 carry game in Week 13. Gallman correlates better with the Browns passing game stacks. If the Browns and Chubb get out to a big lead and turn run-heavy, Gallman will likely be phased out. Though I think this is Browns’ captain or bust, Sterling Shepard and Evan Engram deserve consideration at their price. McCoy has targeted Shepard 14 times and Engram 13 times in two games. There may be a case for these two getting peppered with targets in catch-up mode, but it probably just means that one of the Browns weapons went off.

Flex

The only other running back in this game that is playable is Dion Lewis because of his extremely cheap price tag. Gallman has been the lead back with Lewis spelling him here and there, it really hasn’t been much of a split. I think we can use Lewis in lineups projecting a Browns’ rout of the Giants which could give Lewis some garbage time dump-offs, but that’s about it.

The ancillary pass-catchers for the Browns will be an important spot to nail down. Rashard Higgins and Donovan Peoples-Jones have been the primary beneficiaries of Beckham being inactive as they increased their playing time and target share. Higgins has back-to-back splash games of six receptions and a touchdown. He’s expensive, which will make him low-owned. I think he’s a solid pivot from Landry in some lineups in hopes he outscores him at a slightly cheaper price. Peoples-Jones may cede snaps to Khadarel Hodge if he’s active so that’s something to keep an eye on. I like slotting Hodge in if he’s active as a low owned dart throw. The tight end situation for the Browns is worth monitoring as well. Austin Hooper and David Njoku are both rocking Q tags coming into this game though it looks like all three, including Harrison Bryant, should be good to go. Because there is only $1,000 separating the three of them on DraftKings, I’m leaning Hooper as the right play. He’ll be on the field the most and is cheap enough to get into the optimal lineup with a touchdown and just a few receptions. Bryant did see a season-high in targets last week, so he is viable as well. I would make sure to pair tight ends with Baker as they both require passing touchdowns to hit value. I’m interested to see if Marvin Hall is active, he’s worth a last man in flier if so, as he has the deep threat ability and a week in the Browns’ system.

On the Giants side of the ball, Golden Tate could be a nice dart throw as his price has come way down and he has surpassed Darius Slayton at least in target share over the last three weeks which included a nine target effort in Week 13. For whatever reason, McCoy only targeted Slayton once in the two games he started. At Slayton’s price, he’s avoidable in my opinion. Kaden Smith and Alfred Morris can be last man in dart throws, but that would only be a recommendation if you are mass multi-entering and need someone at their price point. Both can luckbox a TD, but won’t get any volume

Lineup Starters

Captain/MVP: Nick Chubb

Flex: Browns DST, Rashard Higgins, Golden Tate

Captain/MVP: Baker Mayfield

Flex: Kareem Hunt, Austin Hooper, Sterling Shepard

Captain/MVP: Jarvis Landry

Flex: Baker Mayfield, Donovan Peoples-Jones, Evan Engram

Captain/MVP: Wayne Gallman

Flex: Baker Mayfield, Jarvis Landry, Harrison Bryant