Week 14 SNF Showdown

General Rule for Creating Showdown/MVP Lineups

1. Correlate with your Captain/MVP - Make sure you are creating a roster that makes sense with your 1.5x player.
2. On DraftKings, lean RB/WR in the captain. Though QB can finish as the optimal captain, it’s often overused by the field relative to its success rate. When you are using a QB in the captain, I like to use a lot of his pass-catchers. Because the likely scenario if a QB ends up as the captain on DK is he spread his touchdowns around to multiple receivers and not one skill player had a ceiling game.
3. On FanDuel the MVP spot doesn’t cost you 1.5x salary which means you’re just trying to get the highest scoring player in that spot. Contrary to DK, it’s often the QB because of the scoring system. I would lean QB/RB on FD, but there are always exceptions to the rule.
4. Leave salary on the table - I’m not just talking about a few hundred. Don’t be afraid to leave a few thousand on the table. In a slate that has an extremely limited number of viable options, there is a much greater chance for lineup duplication. It may not seem like much of an issue, but it can decimate your expected value to put in lineups that are going to split with 500 other people.
5. Multi-enter if you can. Single-game slates have so much variance that the first play of the game can take you completely out of contention if you only have one lineup. It’s best to build a bunch of lineups (you don’t have to max enter) that concentrates on different game scripts and a handful of different correlated captains.
6. DST and Kickers, while not very exciting usually offer a solid floor for cheap. Especially in game scripts that go under expected point totals. I would only use at most two per lineup.
7. When creating single-game lineups, the most important part is creating correlated lineups according to a projected game script, and not pinpointing the exact five or six players who will score the most fantasy points on the slate.

Captain/Flex

In this showdown of top teams, we have one that has a concentrated group that can be considered as captains, and one that has several. The Bills’ offense, while often potent, centers around just a few main pieces. Josh Allen makes a great captain as we always mention because he can get fantasy points with his legs and not bring a pass-catcher along. Allen has six rushing touchdowns on the season and he’ll need to score on the ground to boost his odds of being the optimal captain because of his hefty price tag. Oddly, over the last month, Cole Beasley has matched Stefon Diggs in air yards at about 33%, but trails him in target share 32%-24%. I think it will be difficult for players to pull the trigger on Beasley after his monster game last week, assuming it can’t happen twice. His usage definitely supports the idea that his fantasy performances have not been a fluke. As long as John Brown is off the field, Beasley will be a major factor in the pass game. Stefon Diggs, as previously mentioned, still leads the Bills in the major receiving categories over the last month. Diggs hasn’t been targeted less than nine times over the last five games and has a very solid floor, which means he’s very likely to be in the optimal lineup somewhere, but I’m not sure at captain. I’m writing him up here because he definitely has the usage and skill to be in the optimal lineup at captain, but I think he’s better suited in the flex.

The Steelers have a host of players that can be the captain. Ben Roethlisberger, despite not being a scrambler, often spreads the ball around to a host of receivers and tight ends which boosts his upside, but limits theirs. Diontae Johnson continues to be the number one receiver on this Steelers’ offense, but may see the most Tre White in this game. He’s still in play for captain with a 27% target share over the last month, however, the Bills have been leaking more fantasy points to slot receivers. Juju Smith-Schuster may be able to sneak into the captain spot in a negative game script. If Pittsburgh dominates, it probably means Johnson and Chase Claypool hit some big shots downfield. Juju gets there if they are playing catch up and hitting him with a bunch of up-tempo dump-offs the entire second half. Claypool has the most air yards at 30% share. Though he’s a bit banged up so you’ll need to keep an eye on his status.

Flex

The Steelers’ running backs are going to be a tough group to project. Obviously, James Conner is the starting running back, but how much did COVID take out of him and how much run will he get. When you take into account that he wasn’t playing particularly well before going on the COVID list, I have a difficult time recommending him for anything more than a couple of lineups if you are mass multi-entering. If anything, I’d rather take a shot on Benny Snell or Anthony McFarland in the hopes that Conner still isn’t ready for a full time. In that case, we are getting Snell and McFarland for a very cheap price. They both make for an interesting last man in on Steeler heavy lineups. I would roster Snell in Steeler lopsided win type lineups and McFarland in the opposite, negative, game script hoping he may see a few check downs with one ending in a luckbox touchdown.

I’m never a fan of underperforming running backs with a quarterback that steals goal line touches, which is why being overweight on Devin Singletary and Zack Moss doesn’t make much sense. Singletary is more of the between the 20s and pass-catching back, so he should be the pairing with Josh Allen, if you’re so inclined to do so. Moss has a more likely chance of scoring, as long as he doesn’t fumble the football. If you want to get unique and have a high leverage lineup, you could use Moss without Allen and hope that he snipes him at the goal line a few times. It’s a possibility, though not a likely one.

Of the pass-catchers on either side of the ball that haven’t been mentioned yet, Eric Ebron is the one to get into your lineup. He has 29 targets in the last three weeks which includes 11 in each of his last two. As I’ve noted, the Bills give up most of their production to interior receivers which is where Ebron lines up. He’s at a reasonable price despite his off-the-charts usage over the last month. James Washington rotated in more than we are used to last week, which may have had something to do with Claypool getting banged up, but nonetheless it’s important to note that the rotation was mostly with Washington and Claypool, so I wouldn’t include them in the same lineup as they usually eat into each other’s snaps.

The Bills run the most 3WR sets in the league, so Gabriel Davis is a better option than Dawson Knox despite Knox having a solid game last week. Davis is a threat to score in every game, in fact, he has scored in three straight appearances. Because he’s not a volume receiver and requires to score for him to smash value, I wouldn’t roster Davis with other players that need touchdowns to hit value like Moss and Knox.

If you’re looking for fliers or “last man in” type plays, Isaiah McKenzie is used in the red zone a lot on misdirection plays. They get the flow of the offense going one when and have McKenzie with a jet sweep. As leverage off what should be a popular Eric Ebron, Vance McDonald is only the field enough to be a solid dart throw. He doesn’t get targeted often and is mostly used as a blocker, but a play-action touchdown at the goal line at his price tag is all you need.

Lineup Starters

Captain/MVP: Josh Allen

Flex: Cole Beasley, Diontae Johnson, Gabriel Davis

Captain/MVP: Stefon Diggs

Flex: Josh Allen, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Eric Ebron

Captain/MVP: Diontae Johnson

Flex: Ben Roethlisberger, Eric Ebron, Josh Allen

Captain/MVP: Ben Roethlisberger

Flex: Chase Claypool, Diontae Johnson, Gabriel Davis