General Rule for Creating Showdown/MVP Lineups
Correlate with your Captain/MVP - Make sure you are creating a roster that makes sense with your 1.5x player.
On DraftKings, lean RB/WR in the captain. Though QB can finish as the optimal captain, it’s often overused by the field relative to its success rate. When you are using a QB in the captain, I like to use a lot of his pass-catchers. Because the likely scenario if a QB ends up as the captain on DK is he spread his touchdowns around to multiple receivers and not one skill player had a ceiling game.
On FanDuel the MVP spot doesn’t cost you 1.5x salary which means you’re just trying to get the highest scoring player in that spot. Contrary to DK, it’s often the QB because of the scoring system. I would lean QB/RB on FD, but there are always exceptions to the rule.
Leave salary on the table - I’m not just talking about a few hundred. Don’t be afraid to leave a few thousand on the table. In a slate that has an extremely limited number of viable options, there is a much greater chance for lineup duplication. It may not seem like much of an issue, but it can decimate your expected value to put in lineups that are going to split with 500 other people.
Multi-enter if you can. Single-game slates have so much variance that the first play of the game can take you completely out of contention if you only have one lineup. It’s best to build a bunch of lineups (you don’t have to max enter) that concentrates on different game scripts and a handful of different correlated captains.
DST and Kickers, while not very exciting usually offer a solid floor for cheap. Especially in game scripts that go under expected point totals. I would only use at most two per lineup.
When creating single-game lineups, the most important part is creating correlated lineups according to a projected game script, and not pinpointing the exact five or six players who will score the most fantasy points on the slate.
Captain/Flex
This game has a concentrated captain pool, which makes it easier to spread your exposure to punt fliers. Lamar Jackson makes the list with his ability to rush the ball. He finally looked like himself last week on the ground nearly eclipsing 100 yards. I really like Jackson’s outlook this week against a Browns defense that is a much more pass-friendly defense. I’m not worried about his scrambling being hampered by a good run defense, because much of it is improvisation that the Browns won’t have an answer for. I would be completely comfortable with Jackson being the only Raven in your captain pool. Mark Andrews makes his return from the Covid list and always has the opportunity to catch multiple touchdowns, which he has done twice this year. Marquise Brown owns the Ravens’ top receiver spot in terms of air yards and target share, but they often don’t throw it enough for Brown to smash value as he’s often priced up because of his skill set. For me, it’s lock Jackson in on this side of the ball. I wouldn’t fault anyone for Brown or Andrews in the captain spot, but the offense revolves around Lamar so much it’s perfectly fine to limit captain exposure to solely the quarterback in this game.
Nick Chubb has been a monster since returning from injury. Chubb has had 100 yards, a touchdown, or both in each of the last four games. The Ravens are middle of the pack in run defense, so not lock down enough for me to shy away from Chubb who is a virtual lock for 20+ combined touches/targets. Jarvis Landry has had a massive upswing in usage and fantasy production since OBJ was lost to injury. On 21 targets over the last two weeks, Landry has amassed 16 receptions, 205 yards and two touchdowns. The Ravens secondary is a strength, so the probability that he replicates a stat line from the last two weeks high. However, Baker Mayfield has been locking on to him recently so he will be in the captain player pool. Mayfield has had a solid two week run of his own throwing for six touchdowns and zero interceptions. Though I’ll always consider quarterbacks in the captain spot, Mayfield’s ceiling against a solid Ravens’ secondary isn’t high enough for me to slot him in as captain in more than a flier lineup. It’s perfectly reasonable to only have Jackson and Chubb at captain on this slate.
Flex
Kareem Hunt, while not producing has been getting enough touches to warrant being in lineups. He makes for nice leverage on Nick Chubb in lineups that you feel are otherwise chalky. Hunt has averaged 16.5 combined touches/targets alongside Chubb since his return. Make no mistake Chubb has been the RB1A and has also been more effective, but all that usage can’t be ignored. On the other side of the ball, a three-headed backfield makes things very difficult. JK Dobbins will most likely get the most carries, but not necessarily the goal line carries. Gus Edwards and Mark Ingram will spell Dobbins, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the split ends up 40/30/30. I’m not going to pretend as if I have an inclination of which back will be the one that returns the most value. Obviously Dobbins has the best raw score projection, but Edwards and Ingram falling into the end zone will put them into the optimal lineup in many cases. I would correlate Edwards and Ingram with the Ravens defense as if it’s a lopsided Ravens win, Edwards and Ingram could be in line for more targets.
The ancillary pass-catchers will most likely be where this game is won. Nailing the right mid-to-low priced pass-catcher that hits their ceiling is often difficult for the Ravens because of how Lamar spreads the ball around. Last week, it was Miles Boykin, but in previous weeks it’s been Willie Snead or Devin Duvernay. I think Snead is a great option this week. He may be a bit rusty due to missing the last two weeks with the virus, but he was on fire before sitting out with a 100-yard game and a two touchdown game in the last month. He’s my favorite pass-catcher from the Ravens this week. Boykin is an afterthought at this point, he often just lines up out wide and just gets some interval training done running up and down the sideline with no targets. Duvernay is cheap enough that he can be used as a flier, but I’d focus my Lamar correlation on Snead, Brown and Andrews. Remember you don’t need to correlate Jackson too much because his legs often take receivers out of the equation.
The Browns Rashard Higgins and Donovan Peoples-Jones will be the three main stacking pieces with Mayfield. Peoples-Jones got wildly lucky to cash in on a 2-92-1 line last week and his price has jumped significantly. This could be the spark he needs to start producing, but the more likely outcome is he comes back down to earth. Higgins had a monster game as well. His box score looks terrible because the Browns played in a month’s worth of tornados, but as soon as the weather was decent he performed. I like Higgins and snead a lot. The tight end position with Austin Hooper out is an intriguing one as well. Harrison Bryant and David Njoku will soak up the tight end playing time and while I like both, Njoku at his very inexpensive price makes a lot of sense because it allows you to pay up in an extra spot. A supreme dart throw is Marvin Hall the veteran speedster from the Lions that was just activated for his first action of the season with the Browns. He can be the last man in on lineups that only have $200 remaining.
Lineup Starters
Captain MVP: Lamar Jackson
Flex: Mark Andrews, Willie Snead, Rashard Higgins
Captain/MVP: Lamar Jackson
Flex: Marquise Brown, Ravens DST, Jarvis Landry
Captain/MVP: Nick Chubb
Flex: Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews, Rashard Higgins
Captain/MVP: Jarvis Landry
Flex: Kareem Hunt, Baker Mayfield, Willie Snead
