Week 13 MNF Showdown

General Rule for Creating Showdown/MVP Lineups

1. Correlate with your Captain/MVP - Make sure you are creating a roster that makes sense with your 1.5x player.
2. On DraftKings, lean RB/WR in the captain. Though QB can finish as the optimal captain, it’s often overused by the field relative to its success rate. When you are using a QB in the captain, I like to use a lot of his pass-catchers. Because the likely scenario if a QB ends up as the captain on DK is he spread his touchdowns around to multiple receivers and not one skill player had a ceiling game.
3. On FanDuel the MVP spot doesn’t cost you 1.5x salary which means you’re just trying to get the highest scoring player in that spot. Contrary to DK, it’s often the QB because of the scoring system. I would lean QB/RB on FD, but there are always exceptions to the rule.
4. Leave salary on the table - I’m not just talking about a few hundred. Don’t be afraid to leave a few thousand on the table. In a slate that has an extremely limited number of viable options, there is a much greater chance for lineup duplication. It may not seem like much of an issue, but it can decimate your expected value to put in lineups that are going to split with 500 other people.
5. Multi-enter if you can. Single-game slates have so much variance that the first play of the game can take you completely out of contention if you only have one lineup. It’s best to build a bunch of lineups (you don’t have to max enter) that concentrates on different game scripts and a handful of different correlated captains.
6. DST and Kickers, while not very exciting usually offer a solid floor for cheap. Especially in game scripts that go under expected point totals. I would only use at most two per lineup.
7. When creating single-game lineups, the most important part is creating correlated lineups according to a projected game script, and not pinpointing the exact five or six players who will score the most fantasy points on the slate.

Captain

Josh Allen is one of the quarterbacks that makes sense at captain no matter the circumstance because of his ability to run the ball and also call his own number at the goal line. The 49ers defense is very good. On a single game slate, you can’t worry about matchup too much. The one difference with Allen (and all running quarterbacks) in the captain spot is you don’t have to use multiple pass-catchers. I often advise to use multiple pass-catchers with immobile quarterbacks because it means they’ve spread the ball around, but with mobile quarterbacks they can get there with rushing production and only bring one receiver along. Stefon Diggs always has the boom potential, especially with John Brown out of the lineup. He’s been targeted 29% of the time in the Bills offense with a 37% air yards share. I have enough faith in the 49ers defense and not enough faith in the rest of the Bills’ offense that I think we can limit our captain exposure to the two aforementioned options.

49ers wide receivers are my main interest on the other side of the football. Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk have combined for 75% of the team’s air yards, but Aiyuk is getting the air yards while Deebo is working more so near the line of scrimmage. Aiyuk makes for a nice low-owned captain play that allows you to get a bit stronger of a lineup at the bottom. The 49ers rotating four running backs makes it nearly impossible to roster them at captain. I think we can take a few shots at Raheem Mostert if you are multi-entering because he has home run ability that can allow him to hit value on limited touches. He led the 49ers with 16 carries last week.

Flex

Devin Singletary and Zack Moss have entered into a pretty split time share, which makes them hard to slot into lineups especially because you have to sacrifice playing receivers priced just ahead of them. I’d rather pay up to a receiver and take a hit somewhere else rather than roster a Bills’ running back. If you do, I think it makes sense to add Singletary or Allen stacks as he can catch passes and use Moss as leverage in lineups that don’t include Allen.

The Bills run the most three wide receiver sets in the league, so Cole Beasley and Gabriel Davis are squarely in play as they’ll play mostly every snap. I like both and think you can rotate them in with Diggs or play them both without Diggs. I am leaning Beasley only because I think he’ll be much lower owned with Davis catching a touchdown (albeit from Beasley) last week. If you have to decide between the two I would put Beasley in lineups that have a 49ers win scripted because he is more of a possession receiver I could see racking up receptions in catch up mode. Davis would be my pick in Bills lopsided win lineups.

I’m not going to pretend I know how to separate the 49ers backs. They all should get carries, and it’s most likely a crapshoot as to which one hits value outside of Mostert. Jeff Wilson has goal-line usage so he can potentially luckbox into a touchdown. Otherwise, I’m not going to have much of any 49ers running back as they eat into each other’s workloads too much.

Jordan Reed saw six targets last week and is affordable on DraftKings. Against a Bills defense that ranks 27th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends, both he and Ross Dwelley can be rostered. Dwelley is cheap enough that he can be the last man in and hit value with just a couple catches or some touchdown variance. On the other side of the ball, Dawson Knox is a bit pricey for his usage. Even if he scores, that doesn’t do enough to hit value. I’d rather spend that money on a defense or kicker in this game to be honest.

As for absolute punts that could be used as the last man in on lineups that have five solid players, my favorite is probably Kyle Jusczyzk who has a defined role in the 49ers running game. And while he doesn’t ever usually run the ball, he does get some play-action looks as he leaks out of the backfield. Isaiah McKenzie is the bare minimum and with John Brown out could see about 15 snaps. They like to flip him the ball out of jet sweep and at $200 he’ll probably need to be in your lineup if he scores. Tyler Kroft has had games with enough usage to be a great play at his price and he’s also coming off a touchdown. Though he’s not a true punt, Kendrick Bourne doesn’t fit into the mid-tier either. I’d much rather get up to Aiyuk or Deebo, but if you have to drop down to Bourne to upgrade somewhere else, I’m fine with that as well.

I like both defenses and kickers more than normal in this game and think it could be somewhat of a slugfest.

Lineup Starters

Captain/MVP: Josh Allen

Flex: Stefon Diggs, Gabriel Davis, Brandon Aiyuk

Captain/Flex: Stefon Diggs

Flex: Josh Allen, Cole Beasley, Deebo Samuel

Captain/Flex: Brandon Aiyuk

Flex: Josh Allen, Gabriel Davis, Nick Mullens

Captain/Flex: Raheem Mostert

Flex: 49ers Defense, Deebo Samuel, Cole Beasley