Week 11 SNF Showdown

General Rule for Creating Showdown/MVP Lineups

1. Correlate with your Captain/MVP - Make sure you are creating a roster that makes sense with your 1.5x player.
2. On DraftKings, lean RB/WR in the captain. Though QB can finish as the optimal captain, it’s often overused by the field relative to its success rate. When you are using a QB in the captain, I like to use a lot of his pass-catchers. Because the likely scenario if a QB ends up as the captain on DK is he spread his touchdowns around to multiple receivers and not one skill player had a ceiling game.
3. On FanDuel the MVP spot doesn’t cost you 1.5x salary which means you’re just trying to get the highest scoring player in that spot. Contrary to DK, it’s often the QB because of the scoring system. I would lean QB/RB on FD, but there are always exceptions to the rule.
4. Leave salary on the table - I’m not just talking about a few hundred. Don’t be afraid to leave a few thousand on the table. In a slate that has an extremely limited number of viable options, there is a much greater chance for lineup duplication. It may not seem like much of an issue, but it can decimate your expected value to put in lineups that are going to split with 500 other people.
5. Multi-enter if you can. Single-game slates have so much variance that the first play of the game can take you completely out of contention if you only have one lineup. It’s best to build a bunch of lineups (you don’t have to max enter) that concentrates on different game scripts and a handful of different correlated captains.
6. DST and Kickers, while not very exciting usually offer a solid floor for cheap. Especially in game scripts that go under expected point totals. I would only use at most two per lineup.
7. When creating single-game lineups, the most important part is creating correlated lineups according to a projected game script, and not pinpointing the exact five or six players who will score the most fantasy points on the slate.

Captain/MVP

Patrick Mahomes is one of a handful of quarterbacks who automatically qualify to be captain based on the way he spreads the ball around and adds a touch of mobility to get some rushing production. Mahomes has a history of dominating this Raiders’ team, he’s like a bull seeing red when he lines up across from the silver and black. If slotting Mahomes at captain, it will probably mean that the bulk of his production didn’t go to one receiver like Tyreek Hill or Travis Kelce so it’s probably a good idea to roster multiple Chiefs’ pass-catchers in your build. Tyreek Hill looks like he’s had a bit of a down year if you look at his box score and one may think that it’s due to lack of usage, but that’s the furthest reason for his lack of monster games. Hill has a 40% air yards share and has over 1000 air yards on the season despite only racking up 655 actual yards. He makes sense as a captain if you think he and Mahomes can connect a long bomb or two. Kelce leads the team in target share at 25% and always has multiple touchdown upside every time he touches the field. I would most likely limit my lineups to one of Hill or Kelce because they can eat into each other’s production and really crush the average remaining salary if you click on them both in the same lineup. We could also consider Mecole Hardman as a potential captain as well. He has the potential for 20+ fantasy points especially if he connects on a deep shot. The way Hardman would sneak in as the optimal captain would be if no other cheap value hits so Mahomes/Kelce/Hill captain lineups fail as a result of not having punts hit in the flex spot.

The Raiders side of the ball is intriguing. A great way to get unique is to create lineups that follow a game flow of the Raiders having some offensive success. Josh Jacobs has been solid this season. He’s coming off a big volume game against the Broncos in which he went over 30 DraftKings points. He also scored twice against the Chiefs earlier in the year. If we slot in the Raiders defense, it could mean that this game was a shootout like it was in Week 5, or it could mean that the Raiders actually controlled the game a bit, so there are a few ways you can create lineups around a Jacobs captain. Derek Carr also had a monster fantasy game. Of course, like Mahomes, if Carr is the captain he spread the ball out to multiple receivers or had a sneak at the goal line. I think that is more likely than a wide receiver getting slotted in as the captain as they are somewhat expensive and no one has a commanding target share outside of Darren Waller. He’s the only pass-catcher with a target share over 14% and it’s way over at 28%. I think the most likely scenario is that Carr does find a few receivers for touchdowns if the Raiders offense does hit their ceiling.

Flex

The running backs on the Chiefs aren’t very intriguing to me. Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Le’Veon Bell have now eaten into each other’s workload to the point that I don’t think they are viable captains. I think I would lean Bell in this contest just because of his price (on DraftKings). He makes for a solid last man in at under $2,000. Coming out of the bye, it’s plausible that Andy Reid has plans to involve him in the offense a bit more. On the other side of the ball, Devontae Booker is someone that I think should be in lineups. He has scored three times in the last two games and has been getting a solid handful of carries throughout the season. If Jalen Richard sits, I think Booker is very interesting. He could see increased involvement in the passing game on top of his carries.

Henry Ruggs III leads the Raiders in air yards share at 28% which is way higher than his target share of 13% which indicates most of his targets are deep downfield. In a single game contest, that’s the kind of upside we like. Nelson Agholor has flashed a ton of touchdown upside, but he doesn’t get a lot of volume, as Waller is the only pass-catcher who gets peppered with targets. Hunter Renfrow is a bit of a conundrum because he is the profile of a solid flex play on DraftKings, a lower-priced slot receiver that should see multiple low aDOT targets that makes him a solid bet to get 10 DraftKings points, but Carr has not been targeting him as such. The other ancillary pieces like Bryan Edwards or the back up tight ends Jason Witten and Foster Moreau could be the last man in, but I’m not thrilled about those pass-catchers. You’d just be hoping for a luckbox touchdown at their price.

Demarcus Robinson is always a player that always seems to be rostered with more fervor than he plays with on the field. While I think he’s an acceptable flex play, he’s going to need to replicate his previous two weeks of touchdown production to be slotted into the optimal lineup. There is also Byron Pringle, who needs to do much less than the other Chiefs’ receivers to make it into the optimal because of his bare bones price. There are certain times when he’s on the field a bit more than expected like the Jets’ game a few weeks ago when he hauled in three receptions.

Lineup Starters

Captain/MVP: Patrick Mahomes

Flex: Travis Kelce, Mecole Hardman, Henry Ruggs III

Captain/MVP: Tyreek Hill

Flex: Patrick Mahomes, LeVeon Bell, Darren Waller

Captain/MVP: Derek Carr

Flex: Darren Waller, Devontae Booker, Travis Kelce

Captain/MVP: Josh Jacobs

Flex: Patrick Mahomes, Mecole Hardman, Travis Kelce

Captain/MVP: Travis Kelce

Flex: Patrick Mahomes, Devontae Booker, Nelson Agholor