General Rule for Creating Showdown/MVP Lineups
- Correlate with your Captain/MVP - Make sure you are creating a roster that makes sense with your 1.5x player.
- On DraftKings, lean RB/WR in the captain. Though QB can finish as the optimal captain, it’s often overused by the field relative to its success rate. When you are using a QB in the captain, I like to use a lot of his pass-catchers. Because the likely scenario if a QB ends up as the captain on DK is he spread his touchdowns around to multiple receivers and not one skill player had a ceiling game.
- On FanDuel the MVP spot doesn’t cost you 1.5x salary which means you’re just trying to get the highest scoring player in that spot. Contrary to DK, it’s often the QB because of the scoring system. I would lean QB/RB on FD, but there are always exceptions to the rule.
- Leave salary on the table - I’m not just talking about a few hundred. Don’t be afraid to leave a few thousand on the table. In a slate that has an extremely limited number of viable options, there is a much greater chance for lineup duplication. It may not seem like much of an issue, but it can decimate your expected value to put in lineups that are going to split with 500 other people.
- Multi-enter if you can. Single-game slates have so much variance that the first play of the game can take you completely out of contention if you only have one lineup. It’s best to build a bunch of lineups (you don’t have to max enter) that concentrates on different game scripts and a handful of different correlated captains.
- DST and Kickers, while not very exciting usually offer a solid floor for cheap. Especially in game scripts that go under expected point totals. I would only use at most two per lineup.
- When creating single-game lineups, the most important part is creating correlated lineups according to a projected game script, and not pinpointing the exact five or six players who will score the most fantasy points on the slate.
Captain/MVP
An interesting note on the Rams’ offense from last week, which is something that happened last year around this time as well, is that they took Cooper Kupp off the field in favor of two tight end sets. Tyler Higbee, Josh Reynolds, and Robert Woods all played about 80% of snaps. Gerald Everett played around 60% and Kupp played 53%. What does that mean for captain picks on the Rams? I think it means Kupp may be rostered a bit more than he should be. I think Kupp is a fine play, but he’ll probably be too popular as a captain for me, given his path to failure with potentially not being on the field for half of the Rams’ snaps. Josh Reynolds is on my radar because you can make a balanced lineup and he has risen to a prominent role in this offense. Robert Woods hasn’t necessarily been a world-beater, but I prefer him to Kupp given the snap percentage and involvement in the run game. Jared Goff spreading the ball around is probably our best bet given the three receivers and two tight ends that play a role in this offense. The overall upside of the Rams’ offense doesn’t thrill me in this game, so I’ll probably take some shots with the pass-catchers.
The Rams allow their production to running backs and interior pass-catchers. Ronald Jones could be called on to alleviate some of the interior pressure on Brady. Jones is risky because we know that he can be yanked at any time and there have been games in which Leonard Fournette plays a bit more, but the Buccaneers wanting to build off last week’s momentum and get Jones going is a strong possibility. Tom Brady of course is in play as the captain, but given that I think this game will be a bit more of a slugfest, I’m leaning towards skill players like Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown, and Mike Evans. Since joining the Buccaneers, Antonio Brown has an 18% target share. It seemed last week that Brady was very comfortable slinging the ball his way with 8 targets. I could see this being a breakout type game for Brown and don’t mind sprinkling him into captain. As I mentioned before the Rams give up a lot of their production inside, which could bode well for Godwin. This may be the first week he is fully healthy in a while. Despite not being 100% last week, he still had his highest receiving output of the year. He’s my favorite of all the Buccaneers’ pass-catchers. Of course Evans can always score multiple touchdowns, but in this game, I think he’s the odd man out in the captain spot due to projected ownership and being the most expensive pass-catching piece.
Flex
Leonard Fournette and his pass-catching prowess makes sense in a slugfest. If there aren’t going to be touchdowns scored, we want to roster players who can hit value without them. Before last week, Fournette had six targets in three straight games. On the Rams side of the ball, I wouldn’t fault anyone for not wanting to guess which back will get the work. If anything, it looks as though Malcom Brown is the preferred goal-line back. I’ll probably have very little of the Rams running backs, especially because I don’t think this is a game that is going to have a ton of points. Cam Akers deserves some consideration just based on price, a touchdown and a few receptions puts him into the optimal, whereas Darrell Henderson needs much more than that to hit value. Overall, I don’t think it’s wise to have a lot of the Rams’ backfield.
Rob Gronkowski has been a pleasant surprise over the last few weeks, as a big-bodied end zone target for Brady. He’s scored in four of his last five games, but doesn’t get the volume to be a ceiling play. His salary makes him a great flex play. If you are rostering Brady at captain, Gronk makes a ton of sense in the flex because it will mean there are touchdowns scored through the air. They correlate well. Cameron Brate is probably the best pure punt on the Buccaneers, but with Antonio Brown joining the squad, he has really sucked the life out of ancillary receivers like Scottie Miller and Tyler Johnson.
The wildcards this week are the Rams’ tight ends. I’m not sure many people will realize they played more than Cooper Kupp last week and that it’s a real possibility that happens again. Tyler Higbee had a solid six targets out of the bye week and it looks like they are making a concerted effort to get him back into the mix. Gerald Everett only saw three targets last week, but the fact he was on the field a ton makes him a solid sleeper on a single slate.
I don’t normally mention DST and Kicker because they are always in play as fliers, but in this specific game, both defenses and kickers, used no more than 1 each per lineup, could give us a ton of leverage.
Captain/MVP: Tom Brady
Flex: Chris Godwin, Rob Gronkowski, Josh Reynolds
Captain/MVP: Jared Goff
Flex: Antonio Brown, Cooper Kupp, Josh Reynolds
Captain/MVP: Chris Godwin
Flex: Tom Brady, Ronald Jones, Robert Woods
Captain/MVP: Josh Reynolds
Flex: Jared Goff, Tom Brady, Mike Evans
Captain/MVP: Ronald Jones
Flex: Bucs DST, Tom Brady, Robert Woods
