Against the Spread Picks
Arkansas State (-6.0) at Texas State
Cincinnati (-6.0) at UCF
Coastal Carolina (-5.5) vs. Appalachian State
San Jose State (-2.5) at Fresno State
- Canceled due to Fresno State COVID-19 positive tests.
Clemson (-35.5) at Florida State
Arkansas (+2.0) vs. LSU
Georgia (-25.0) vs. Mississippi State
Purdue (-2.5) at Minnesota
Troy (-11.5) vs. Middle Tennessee
Total Wagers
Rice at North Texas (Over 65.5)
UCLA at Oregon (Over 66.5)
- Update: We need to keep an eye on the status of Bruins QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson. If he is unavailable, I would lean on wagering the under on the implied total.
Kentucky at Alabama (Over 58.0)
Michigan State at Maryland (Over 54.5)
- Canceled due to Maryland COVID-19 positive tests.
Tennessee at Auburn (Over 50.5)
Oklahoma State at Oklahoma (Over 59.5)
Kansas State at Iowa State (Over 46.5)
Indiana at Ohio State (Over 66.5)
Missouri at South Carolina (Over 56.5)
Quarterbacks
Justin Fields, Ohio State vs. Indiana (DK: $9,000 | O/U: 66.5 | Implied: 43.5)
We have ourselves a gem of a game that will be the best the Big Ten has offered thus far. Indiana has been playing out of their minds with four straight victories. Ohio State has simply been doing what we expect out of their annually elite program. Different from in year’s past, the Buckeyes’ offense is crafted with a pass-first approach without an elite RB racing out of the backfield. Master Teague and Trey Sermon make up a solid 1-2 committee, but feed off the success of the air attack.
In his second season at the helm, Justin Fields continues to post mind-boggling, video game numbers. Fields is averaging 272.2 air yards/game (AYG, 84 percent overall) and 7.4 rushing FPG behind a solid O-line. The combination of Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson provides Fields with weapons that rival any in the nation. Ohio State’s offense is a known, playoff-tested commodity far from hyperbole serving Cash/SE lineups with a second-story floor.
The Bottom Line: This is not the Saturday to punt the top QB options in Cash/SE. You are either starting Fields, Kyle Trask, or Desmond Ridder. As for the Hoosiers, taking nothing away from their stellar play, the shimmer provided by victories over Penn State and Michigan has not aged very well. The IU defense has been phenomenal against the run, but that is not the best of specialties for facing the OSU offense. A lackluster pass rush, middle-of-the-pack secondary could spell trouble. Sean Clifford, Noah Vedral, Joe Milton, and Rocky Lombardi are a skyscraper’s worth of floors below the future 2021 NFL No. 1 or 2 selection’s talent level. For my money, Fields is the go-to option in everything sans the most puntiest -- I just invented that word -- of GPP dart throw lineups.
Kyle Trask, Florida at Vanderbilt (DK: $9,700 | O/U: 68.0 | Implied: 49.8)
The Heisman race will undoubtedly come down to Fields, Mac Jones, Kyle Trask, and Trevor Lawrence. Despite zero blame on his part, Lawrence may have been eliminated following the loss to Notre Dame, and the same applies to Trask after falling to Texas A&M. What may also end up working against Trask and Jones is the extremely top-heavy SEC. A Week 11 faceoff with Vanderbilt highlights that fact.
The Commodores certainly offer a bit of upside on offense; the defense, however, is another story. Dayo Odeyingbo and Andre Mintze form a formidable pass rush combo off the edge, but they conclude the positives from the Vandy D. Vanderbilt is allowing the fourth-highest completion percentage (72 percent), 2.5 passing TDs/game (20th-most), and 20.3 pure passing FPG (18th) to QBs out of 126 active FBS schools.
The Bottom Line: While Trask’s 66 air yard percentage is over 21 percent less than Fields, he still averages 242.6 AYG. Kyle Pitts was forced to have nasal surgery after taking a cheap shot from Georgia FS Lewis Cine in Week 9. Several Florida receivers including Trevon Grimes (analysis below), Xzavier Henderson, and TE Keon Zipperer stepped forward to keep the offense rolling in Week 10 against Arkansas. Trask is best utilized in a stack with either Kadarius Toney, Grimes, and/or multi-dimensional RB Malik Davis.
Desmond Ridder, Cincinnati at UCF (DK: $9,200 | O/U: 63.5 | Implied: 34.8)
Finding Desmond Ridder’s salary $200 higher than Fields leaves a bit of an undeserved feeling taste in my mouth. Yes, he’s done a tremendous job for the Bearcats on the ground, but he’s a C-grade NFL talent compared to the A-grades for Lawrence, Fields, Mac Jones, and Trask. When Cincinnati finally faces a defense with the foresight to hold contain, his arm deficiencies will be clearly advertised. However, this will not be the week to see that happen. Ridder will face a UCF defense allowing 189.4 rushing yards (37th-most), 258.4 passing yards (35th), 2.43 passing TDs/game (21st), and 20.1 pure passing FPG to QBs (20th).
The Bottom Line: The Bearcats' O-line has been a top-25 unit this season with Ridder taking full advantage for 14.6 rushing FPG. As long as Cincinnati’s defense, led by LB Deshawn Pace and edge defenders Elijah Ponder and Myjal Sanders, holds up, the offense should be able to pull away. Even if the Knights’ offense keeps pace, Ridder will only rack up more FPs along the way. If you decide on Ridder, forego any desire to stack him with his low-volume receivers.
Feleipe Franks, Arkansas vs. LSU (DK: $6,200 | O/U: 64.0 | Implied: 31.0)
The LSU Tigers of the year's past that your granddaddy told you about, they are not. Outside of Siaki Ika, B.J. Ojulari, and Ali Gaye along the D-line and corner Eli Ricks, this LSU has been rag-dolled on a weekly basis. Even Derek Stingley Jr., once considered to be the top cover corner in the country, has struggled to almost unrecognizable levels. For a program jam-packed with five-star players, words cannot describe the levels of disappointment following a 2019 National Championship. Yes, LSU’s pass rush has been spot on. However, the secondary is tolerating 9.98 passing YPA (4th-worst), 335.2 YPG (4th), and 24.6 pure passing FPG to QBs (6th).
The Bottom Line: My eyes were amazed to see Feleipe Franks’ $6.2K salary. The average performance from the Razorbacks’ O-line protecting Franks from the vicious LSU pass rush is a bit of a concern. Although, the remaining stars are aligned for Franks to be a solid value beyond his 18.6 FP-floor. That said, in order to construct lineups around my optimal Cash/SE core for this week, we may be forced to dig a bit deeper into the QB position at superflex.
Alternatives:
Mac Jones, Alabama vs. Kentucky (DK: $8,000 | O/U: 58.0 | Implied: 44.0)
Grayson McCall, Coastal Carolina vs. Appalachian State (DK: $8,000 | O/U: 48.0 | Implied: 26.8)
Luke McCaffrey, Nebraska vs. Illinois (DK: $6,900 | O/U: 59.0 | Implied: 37.3)
Cheap super-flex option:
Ken Seals, Vanderbilt vs. Florida (DK: $4,900 | O/U: 68.0 | Implied: 18.3)
Cheap super-flex option (Check status - Solid Value IF Named Starter):
Isaiah Williams, Illinois at Nebraska (DK: $5,500 | O/U: 59.0 | Implied: 21.8)
Running Backs
Najee Harris, Alabama vs. Kentucky (DK: $9,300 | O/U: 58.0 | Implied: 44.0)
Speaking of that core, after Fields, the next must-start for me is Najee Harris. Maneuvering around the Kentucky defense is a precarious errand. The absolute strength of the Wildcats is its Cover 3 and 4 secondary. CBs Carrington Valentine, Kelvin Joseph, and FS Tyrell Ajian have been instrumental in Kentucky limiting opposing QBs to 214.1 yards, and 1.43 TDs/game.
Don’t get me wrong, I absolutely love QB Mac Jones and his WRs DeVanta Smith and John Metchie III. I fully expect the trio to test every inch of that zone defense. However, Jones and Smith are priced too high for me to consider them in my optimal core. The proven method to defeating Kentucky is on the ground.
The Bottom Line: It just so happens that the Alabama O-line specializes in run blocking. Harris has followed behind C Landon Dickerson, tackles Evan Neal, and Alex Leatherwood to 33.6 FPG, and 14 rushing TDs. Harris has collected an average of 3.09 yards after contact from 24.8 touches/game and a 60 percent carry share. We’ll need Najee to provide us with 27.9 FPs before we can turn a profit. With 6.4 FPG on passing work alone, I am fully committed to Harris as my weekend workhorse.
Jermar Jefferson, Oregon State vs. California (DK: $8,900 | O/U: 49.0 | Implied: 22.8)
If you feel the need to pivot off Harris, Jemar Jefferson might be the choice. He suffered an undisclosed injury last season that sapped the life out of his production. He cruised to a 21/120/4 over Washington State in the 2020 opener, and followed that up with 23/133/1 facing a stout Washington front-seven. We only have a single game to evaluate the California run defense after a pair of cancellations, but they granted UCLA to collect 244 yards, a pair of TDs, and 36.4 FPs last Sunday.
The Bottom Line: With Harris, we have the backing of a lethal passing attack, and star-studded O-line. As for Jefferson, the only other mentionable offensive talents are WR Trevon Bradford, and backfield mate B.J. Baylor. As long as he continues to see at least 20 carries, Jefferson should at least hit his floor. However, I am more intrigued by Baylor as a flex RB at $3.6K.
Rakeem Boyd, Arkansas vs. LSU (DK: $5,000 | O/U: 64.0 | Implied: 31.0)
Opposing offenses are so taken aback by the leniency of the LSU secondary that some have mostly failed to notice that their run defense is actually just as bad. Matchups with the pass-drunk Mississippi State offense and a pre-Keyon Henry Brooks, 41-7 blowout of Vanderbilt can partially explain the numbers. As long as Arkansas’ nasty Cover 3 defense locks down LSU’s rookie QB, T.J. Finley, as I am anticipating, Rakeem Boyd will have plenty of opportunities to provide the necessary ROI.
The Razorbacks defense, led by CB Grant Morgan and FS Jalen Catalon, have limited opposing QBs to 6.63 YPA. Recent games against Florida’s ridiculous passing attack, and Texas A&M have skewed their coverage numbers a bit. Just trust me when I say that the Arkansas secondary is one of the top-20 in the country. Just a reminder that they intercepted six Matt Corral passes in Week 7.
The Bottom Line: In order to earn exposure to Fields, Harris, some form of a QB at superflex, and a few of the WRs I’ll cover, we need to take an atypical step. While I have avoided the idea at all costs in the past -- this is where you brace yourself, quasi-punting the second dedicated RB slot is a necessity. We have several options in the $5K price range: Boyd, Malik Davis -- who I’ll go over next, Jerome Ford, Jalen Holston, B.J. Baylor, and even Vincent Davis. Keep in mind that we also want a $4.6K-or-less option at flex.
Malik Davis, Florida at Vanderbilt (DK: $4,600 | O/U: 68.0 | Implied: 49.8)
No need to waste another second of your time informing you why the Vanderbilt defense is bad and the Florida offense is good. Facts. The major issue when considering the
Gators’ RBs is that they are only running the ball on 41 percent of snaps. With Malik Davis, we actually have a WR packed into a RB’s body, provided around a 20 percent carry share sprinkled on top.
The Bottom Line: If you look at previous box scores to make the final call on Davis, you’ll likely pass. At $4.6K, we need at least 13.8 FPs. The closest on-paper comparison from the Gators’ schedule to the Commodores was Ole Miss. I would even dare to venture that Vanderbilt’s run defense is even worse.
Alternatives:
Breece Hall, Iowa State vs. Kansas State (DK: $9,900 | O/U: 46.5 | Implied: 28.8)
C.J. Marable, Coastal Carolina vs. Appalachian State (DK: $7,300 | O/U: 48.0 | Implied: 26.8)
Christopher Brown Jr., California at Oregon State (DK: $6,300 | O/U: 49.0 | Implied: 26.3)
Keyon Henry-Brooks, Vanderbilt vs. Florida (DK: $6,100 | O/U: 68.0 | Implied: 18.3)
Trelon Smith, Arkansas vs. LSU (DK: $5,500 | O/U: 64.0 | Implied: 31.0)
John Emery Jr., LSU at Arkansas (DK: $5,100 | O/U: 64.0 | Implied: 33.0)
Jerome Ford, Cincinnati at UCF (DK: $4,900 | O/U: 63.5 | Implied: 34.8)
$4.6K-or-less flex options:
Vincent Davis, Pittsburgh vs. Virginia Tech (DK: $4,600 | O/U: 55.0 | Implied: 25.8)
Jalen Holston, Virginia Tech at Pittsburgh (DK: $4,300 | O/U: 55.0 | Implied: 29.3)
Chase Brown, Illinois at Nebraska (DK: $4,200 | O/U: 59.0 | Implied: 21.8)
Ja’Veon Marlow, Vanderbilt vs. Florida (DK: $4,200 | O/U: 68.0 | Implied: 18.3)
Jalen Berger, Wisconsin at Northwestern (DK: $4,100 | O/U: 59.0 | Implied: 37.3)
B.J. Baylor, Oregon State vs. California (DK: $3,600 | O/U: 49.0 | Implied: 22.8)
Receivers
Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State vs. Indiana (DK: $7,600 | O/U: 66.5 | Implied: 43.5)
And/Or
Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State vs. Indiana (DK: $7,900 | O/U: 66.5 | Implied: 43.5)
If you follow my advice with Fields, the next decision is the WR stack. The Buckeyes will face a collection of secondary shells from Indiana. They’ll play a little man coverage, but the majority will be in a variety of zones. Side note: taking a zone-heavy approach against Fields is a terrible idea! Between Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave, Olave is far-and-away the more explosive against zone schemes. Wilson will most definitely get his portion from the plate, but Olave should have the better game.
The Bottom Line: While Wilson surpasses Olave in target share (32 to 24 percent) and in yards/route run (YPRR, 3.74 to 3.02), Olave has a perfect QB passer rating when targeted (158.3), and 26 percent higher air yards/target. A small part of the reason Olave’s YPRR is lower is that he’s run more routes than Wilson (98 to 92). However, you really can’t go wrong with either option.
Jaivon Heiligh, WR, Coastal Carolina vs. Appalachian State (DK: $6,700 | O/U: 48.0 | Implied: 26.8)
The next course of action is deciding between the next three WRs I’ll cover: Jaivon Heiligh, Ty Fryfogle, or Treylon Burks. Heiligh has been a target hog for Coastal Carolina during their impressive undefeated run in 2020. Over the Chanticleers’ last five games, here are his target shares: 40, 55, 42, 33, and 35 percent. He leads the entire main slate with 3.94 YPRR. In addition, he’s seen 13.2 air yards/target.
The Bottom Line: Coastal Carolina is currently home favorites of 5.5-points in Conway. Appalachian State has certainly been a tough opponent over the last few seasons. However, they will be greatly handicapped this week. Their No. 1 RB, Daetrich Harrington, is out, and starting QB Zac Thomas is highly questionable after spending time in the hospital from a hit that left him without feeling in his extremities. Before you ask, Jacob Huesman is simply not an option if Thomas is out. The Chanticleers’ defense rivals that of Cincinnati’s as the best out of the Group of Five. Anyhow, my money will be going against the spread, and feel that Heiligh will ball out with the Mountaineers unable to sustain drives.
Ty Fryfogle, WR, Indiana at Ohio State (DK: $6,300 | O/U: 66.5 | Implied: 23.0)
We’ve all seen what Ty Fryfogle has been able to do this season. He ceased being a sleeper play two weeks ago. Fryfogle did leave the Michigan State game with an undisclosed injury. Even worse, as usual, nobody officially updated his status. However, we do have this:
That pretty much removes the cat from the bag, Fryfogle will be ready to go on Saturday.
The Bottom Line: The Buckeyes’ secondary is not as tested nor has it performed to the levels of their secondaries from years past. Beating their defense is done with the deep ball. With 14.7 air yards/target, Fryfogle has done just that with his 28 percent target share. His target shares the last four weeks: 30, 28, 23, and 39 percent. Exposure to Indiana players facing off with Ohio State is not without risk, but Fryfogle has simply been playing out of his mind.
Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas vs. LSU (DK: $6,100 | O/U: 64.0 | Implied: 31.0)
If you end up with Feleipe Franks at superflex, partnering him with Treylon Burks is a no-brainer. I wish we could populate our lineups with three of these WRs, Fields, and Harris, but the damn $50K salary cap refuses to budge. Since I’ve already covered the LSU secondary deficiencies, I’ll just add that they’ve allowed the ninth-most FPG to WRs (71.5).
The Bottom Line: Some of my numbers on Burks are off. He lost most of Week 5 against Mississippi State when he injured his knee that also forced him to miss Week 6. If we take away his results from that handful of Week 5 snaps and last week against Florida, Burks has put together a 30/451/5 receiving line, or 26.3 FPG over his remaining four games.
Trevon Grimes, WR, Florida at Vanderbilt (DK: $5,100 | O/U: 68.0 | Implied: 49.8)
I simply could not decide between the OSU pair and these four receiver options, so I’m just providing analysis on all of them. With Kyle Pitts forced out of action, Trevon Grimes stepped up to take on an 18 percent target share against Arkansas last week. He ended Week 11 with a 6/109/2 receiving line. As I’ve already established, Vandy’s defense is bad.
The Bottom Line: Despite that 31.9 output in Week 11, his salary is still reasonable. Kadarius Toney will get first dibs on his 22 percent target share at $7.4K. At $5.1K, I’ll take my chances with Grimes.
Alternatives:
DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama vs. Kentucky (DK: $8,800 | O/U: 58.0 | Implied: 44.0)
Kadarius Toney, WR, Florida at Vanderbilt (DK: $7,400 | O/U: 68.0 | Implied: 49.8)
John Metchie III, WR, Alabama vs. Kentucky (DK: $5,900 | O/U: 58.0 | Implied: 44.0)
Cornell Powell, WR, Clemson at Florida State (DK: $5,800 | O/U: 64.0 | Implied: 49.8)
Trevon Bradford, WR, Oregon State vs. California (DK: $5,700 | O/U: 49.0 | Implied: 22.8)
Wan’Dale Robinson, WR, Nebraska vs. Illinois (DK: $5,200 | O/U: 59.0 | Implied: 37.3)
Jordan Addison, WR, Pittsburgh vs. Virginia Tech (DK: $4,900 | O/U: 55.0 | Implied: 25.8)
Tre Turner, WR, Virginia Tech at Pittsburgh (DK: $4,800 | O/U: 55.0 | Implied: 29.3)
$4.6K-or-less options:
Keon Zipperer, TE, Florida at Vanderbilt (DK: $4,600 | O/U: 68.0 | Implied: 49.8)
Cam Johnson, WR, Vanderbilt vs. Florida (DK: $4,300 | O/U: 68.0 | Implied: 18.3)
Zavier Betts, WR, Nebraska vs. Illinois (DK: $3,900 | O/U: 59.0 | Implied: 37.3)
Xzavier Henderson, WR, Florida at Vanderbilt (DK: $3,600 | O/U: 68.0 | Implied: 49.8)
Chris Pierce Jr., WR, Vanderbilt vs. Florida (DK: $3,500 | O/U: 68.0 | Implied: 18.3)
Jalen Virgil, WR, Appalachian State at Coastal Carolina (DK: $3,400 | O/U: 48.0 | Implied: 21.3)
Optimal Passing Game Stacks (Cash/SE)
Justin Fields + Chris Olave +/- Garrett Wilson
Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Indiana Hoosiers
Line: -20.5 | O/U: 66.5 | Implied: 43.5 | Combined Salary: $24.5K DK | Cap: 49.0%
Kyle Trask + Kadarius Toney +/or Trevon Grimes +/or Malik Davis (RB)
Florida Gators at Vanderbilt Commodores
Line: -31.5 | O/U: 68.0 | Implied: 49.8 | Combined Salary: $26.8K DK | Cap: 53.6%
Grayson McCall + Jaivon Heiligh +/- C.J. Marable (RB)
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers vs. Appalachian State Mountaineers
Line: -5.5 | O/U: 48.0 | Implied: 26.8 | Combined Salary: $22.0K DK | Cap: 44.0%
Feleipe Franks + Treylon Burks
Arkansas Razorbacks vs. LSU Tigers
Line: +2.0 | O/U: 64.0 | Implied: 31.0 | Combined Salary: $12.3K DK | Cap: 24.6%
Passing Game Stacks (GPPs)
Ken Seals + Cam Johnson +/- Chris Pierce Jr. +/- Keyon Henry-Brooks (RB)
Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Florida Gators
Line: +31.5 | O/U: 68.0 | Implied: 18.3 | Combined Salary: $18.8K DK | Cap: 37.6%
Mac Jones + DeVonta Smith +/- John Metchie III
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Kentucky Wildcats
Line: -30.0 | O/U: 58.0 | Implied: 44.0 | Combined Salary: $23.2K DK | Cap: 46.4%
Michael Penix Jr. + Ty Fryfogle +/- Whop Philyor
Indiana Hossiers at Ohio State Buckeyes
Line: +20.5 | O/U: 66.5 | Implied: 23.0 | Combined Salary: $17.9K DK | Cap: 35.8%
Hendon Hooker + Tre Turner
Virginia Tech Hokies at Pittsburgh Panthers
Line: -3.5 | O/U: 55.0 | Implied: 29.3 | Combined Salary: $13.9K DK | Cap: 27.8%
Kenny Pickett + Jordan Addison
Pittsburgh Panthers vs. Virginia Tech Hokies
Line: +3.5 | O/U: 55.0 | Implied: 25.8 | Combined Salary: $12.2K DK | Cap: 24.4%
