Hello and welcome to the Week 8 Sunday AM Update. What is this article? Mostly it’s a follow-up to yesterday’s big DFS piece – Scott Barrett’s Week 8 DFS Breakdown. But this article should also offer some utility for redraft and dynasty players.
Each week I’ll be breaking down the key injuries, news, and notes from Saturday / Sunday and will be updating this article up until kickoff (1PM EST). And I’ll also be providing a sort of TL;DR to yesterday’s big DFS article. Who are my core cash game plays? You can find that at the end of the article.
- BREAKING: NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero reports Vikings RB Dalvin Cook is expected to return to a “full workload” this week. This was the major concern with Cook. That alongside a +5.5-point spread, implying negative gamescript. However, the on-paper matchup is great -- Green Bay is giving up a league-high 33.0 FPG to opposing RBs. Cook is likely to be lower-owned, as the concern all week was a reduced workload, and as we’ve seen before DFS players are sluggish to react to Sunday morning news like this. He’s a strong tournament play, and price leverage off Alvin Kamara/Derrick Henry/Kareem Hunt.
- BREAKING: Chiefs RB DeAndre Washington is a HEALTHY SCRATCH. Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Le’Veon Bell, and Darwin Thompson are the only active RBs.
- BREAKING: Dolphins RB Jordan Howard a HEALTHY SCRATCH, as expected.
- BREAKING: Rams TE Tyler Higbee is ACTIVE.
- BREAKING: Broncos RB Phillip Lindsay is EXPECTED TO PLAY.
- BREAKING: Raiders OT Trent Brown is OUT (illness).
- BREAKING: Ravens RB Mark Ingram is OUT.
- Bears WR Allen Robinson CLEARED TO PLAY following a concussion. Darnell Mooney becomes a less attractive punt option for tournaments.
- 49ers RB Tevin Coleman ACTIVATED from injured reserve. We spent a good bit of time on him in yesterday’s article. RB Jeff Wilson is OUT.
- Colts WR Michael Pittman WILL PLAY.
- Jets RB Frank Gore is QUESTIONABLE for Week 8. If he’s out, upgrade La’Mical Perine who played on 67% of the snaps last week.
- Raiders WR Bryan Edwards is QUESTIONABLE. Downgrade Nelson Agholor (who we discussed yesterday) a bit if he plays. Nevermind. BREAKING: Edwards is OUT.
- Patriots CB Stephon Gilmore is OUT. This is obviously a big upgrade for Stefon Diggs.
- Seahawks RBs Chris Carson (foot), Carlos Hyde (hamstring), and Travis Homer (knee) will all be GAME-TIME DECISIONS. We discussed this situation at length in yesterday’s article.
- 49ers WR Deebo Samuel is OUT.
- Packers RB Aaron Jones is OUT.
- Saints WRs Michael Thomas and Marquez Callaway are OUT.
- Bengals RB Joe Mixon is OUT.
- Browns RB Nick Chubb and TE Austin Hooper are OUT.
- Patriots WRs Julian Edelman and N’Keal Harry are OUT.
- Jets WR Breshad Perriman is OUT.
- Chiefs WR Sammy Watkins is OUT.
- Cowboys QB Andy Dalton is OUT.
- Jets WR Jamison Crowder is OUT.
- According to our Ownership Projections, powered by FanShare, the highest-owned players are likely to be:
1. Kareem Hunt (36%)
2. Derrick Henry (29%)
3. Keenan Allen (26%)
4. Davante Adams (23%)
5. Alvin Kamara (19%)
6. Darren Waller (17%)
1. Kareem Hunt (31%)
2. Davante Adams (29%)
3. Jonathan Taylor (27%)
4. Alvin Kamara (27%)
5. Keenan Allen (27%)
6. Derrick Henry (26%)
Things I Think
I think that this is a very difficult week, and you should read yesterday’s article to get my full thoughts. The worst weather games are (in order): [email protected] (24mph winds), [email protected] (23mph winds), [email protected] (22 mph winds), [email protected] (21 mph winds), [email protected] (17mph winds plus rain). I do think that because of the weather concerns, we’re going to see lower-scoring this week on the whole (lower winning score, lower min. cash scores). For single-entry and 3-Max, I still really like the idea of game-stacking [email protected], it’s not drawing the high-ownership I expected, or think it should. This also gives you the added benefit of re-adjusting / late-swapping after the 1PM games.
Notes from Johnny in Discord: “Burrow is no longer a cash play. The weather conditions are too brutal, massive ding to Giovani BVernard as well.” “Deciding between Derrick Henry and Alvin Kamara is the hardest question on the slate.” “Viable punt option not named Mims or Bourne? Berrios.” “Davante Adams is not going to be as chalky as you think.”
The DFS SuperModel
The DFS SuperModel is fully updated. Check it out here.
Cash Core (DK/FD)
QB: Russell Wilson, Jimmy Garoppolo, Ryan Tannehill (FD, stacked with Derrick Henry)
RB: Kareem Hunt, Alvin Kamara, Derrick Henry, Jamaal Williams, Giovani Bernard (FD)
WR: Davante Adams, Keenan Allen (DK), Brandon Aiyuk (FD), Tyler Lockett, Tyler Boyd (FD), Kendrick Bourne (DK) / Denzel Mims (DK)
TE: Darren Waller, Jonnu Smith (DK), George Kittle (FD), Harrison Bryant (DK), Irv Smith Jr. (FD)
DEF: DET, MIA (DK), KC (FD), SEA (FD)