By Josh Chevalier, CFB DFS Analyst
Tuesday’s two-game slate has all the right ingredients toward providing us with exciting action from a pair of potential shootouts. The Famous Idaho Potato Bowl (UCF vs. BYU) matches two top-five FBS scoring offenses with a Vegas projected implied total of 75.5 points that has increased 3.5 points in the last 24 hours. Then we have the RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl (Nevada vs. Tulane) also has all of the hallmarks of a shootout potential with an implied total of 56.5 points, three-points in favor of a dynamic Nevada passing attack, and opposed by a weak Tulane pass defense.
As you’ll find below, this is going to be a slate where we target QBs and WRs since each team provides viable options on this slate. Some of the questions we must answer: Which two QBs do we choose from the trio of Zach Wilson, Dillon Gabriel, and Carson Strong? Do we double stack WRs from BYU, UCF, or Nevada? Are Otis Anderson and Tyler Allgeier healthy after missing their respective team’s previous games?
Answering these questions, more as we take a deep dive into the Tuesday slate.
Against the Spread Picks
Nevada (+2.5) vs. Tulane
BYU (-6) vs. UCF
Total Wagers
Nevada vs. Tulane (Over 56.5)
BYU vs. UCF (Over 76.0)
Quarterbacks
Zach Wilson, BYU vs UCF (DK: $9.0K | FD: $16.0K | O/U: 76.0 | Implied: 41.0)
Zach Wilson should be locked into our lineups this week facing a UCF D that currently ranks 123rd vs. opposing QBs allowing 30.6 FPG. In their last two outings, UCF has allowed opposing QBs to score 42.6 and 42.9 FPs. Their last opponent, USF, was led by Jordan McCloud who previously averaged 13.2 FPG, and never eclipsing 20 FPG prior to facing UCF. The Knights’ pass defense has surrendered 283 YPG and 8.1 YPA, both ranking among the worst in the country. In a game with an implied total of 76.0 points and an implied score for BYU of 41.0, Wilson is the cornerstone to our Cash/SE lineups.
Dillon Gabriel, UCF vs BYU (DK: $8.9K | FD: $15.5K | O/U: 76.0 | Implied: 35.0)
Dillon Gabriel has been electric this year averaging 33.6 FPG. On paper, this looks like a potentially tough matchup facing a BYU D ranked ninth versus opposing QBs, allowing only 16.9 FPG. However, as you dig deeper into BYU’s opponents, you discover that five-of-11 were ranked 90th-or-worse in passing YPG. Only two of their opponents are currently ranked inside the top-31 in that category. Houston’s Clayton Tune was arguably the best QB faced by BYU, allowing him to throw for 310 yards and 2 TDs, and 32 FPs.
The UCF passing offense ranks second in the nation with 373 YPG through the air. BYU has not faced a team this year offering the level of speed UCF provides nor its pace of play (85 plays/game). BYU might hold UCF below their season averages, but they will not shut them down. Keep in mind, the implied team total for UCF is 35 points. UCF has put up 35-plus points in seven-of-nine games this season. In those seven games, Gabriel averaged 36.2 FPG. All that to say, we need to view Gabriel as a difficult fade on this slate, even at $8.9K.
Carson Strong, Nevada vs. Tulane (DK: $7.1K | FD: N/A | O/U: 56.5) | Implied: 27.0)
Carson Strong provides us with another great option at QB. Nevada’s top-10 passing offense (325 YPG) is facing a Tulane defense currently ranked 115th in passing YPG (279). The biggest concern is whether Nevada’s O-line can slow down the fierce pass rush of Tulane.
As long as the Wolf Pack’s O-line proves to be up to the challenge, we can expect Strong to generate big numbers as Tulane’s secondary has allowed opposing QBs to throw for at least 299 yards in seven-of-11 games. If you don’t feel comfortable having Gabriel in your lineup facing BYU either due to the matchup or salary, Strong is a solid pivot, and especially at his reasonable price point.
Alternatives:
Michael Pratt, Tulane vs. Nevada (DK: $6.4K | FD: N/A | O/U: 56.5 | Implied: 29.5)
Running Backs
Tyler Allgeier, BYU vs UCF (DK: $6.6K | FD: $13.0K | O/U: 76.0 | Implied: 41.0)
Tyler Allgeier has been a dynamic back for BYU this year in averaging 20.6 FPG on 14 touches/game. He has an incredibly-high floor each week, scoring at least 15 FPG in nine-of-10 games, and setting him up as a solid cash play. UCF is ranked 90th against opposing RB units with 26.8 FPG, 91st in rushing YPG (190). Allgeier missed his last game versus San Diego State, but HC Kalani Sitake expects him back this week.
In an interview posted yesterday with Allgeier, he provided a breakdown of his expectations for himself, and the BYU offense. Unless we have the ultimate troll job by a HC and player, he will play tonight at $6.6K, making him a solid Cash/SE play.
Otis Anderson, UCF vs BYU (DK: $4.4K | FD: $9.0K | O/U: 76.0 | Implied: 35.0)
Otis Anderson is the most versatile weapon for the UCF offense having spent time in the backfield, as a slot receiver. He is priced at his lowest point of this season at $4.4K. Since he’s averaging 13.2 FPG this season, he will provide a solid value play. There are some questions around his health for this game but, thanks to a report from local beat Jason Beede, he was spotted at bowl practice recently after missing the USF game.
In a slate with limited RB options, Anderson is one of our safer Cash/SE plays with a combination of a reasonable salary, and solid volume (15 touches/game). He also provides us with the flexibility to target higher-priced options at QB and WR.
Alternatives:
Greg McCrae, UCF vs BYU (DK: $5.3K | FD: $11.0K | O/U: 76.0 | Implied: 35.0)
$4.5K-or-less options:
Lopini Katoa, BYU vs UCF (DK: $3.7K | FD: $9.5K | O/U: 76.0 | Implied: 41.0)
Stephen Huderson, Tulane vs. Nevada (DK: $3.5K | FD: N/A | O/U: 56.5) | Implied: 29.5)
Cameron Carroll, Tulane vs. Nevada (DK: $3.9K | FD: N/A | O/U: 56.5) | Implied: 29.5)
Receivers
Dax Milne, BYU vs. UCF (DK: $6.7K | FD: $12.5K | O/U: 76.0 | Implied: 41.0)
Dax Milne is the top WR for BYU, leading the team in targets, receptions, yards, and with eight TDs on the season. He’s produced at least 12.9 FPG in 10-of-11 games while averaging 21.8 FPG throughout the season, providing us with a high floor. At $6.7K, he is a virtual lineup lock facing a UCF D that is ranked 115th in FPG allowed against opposing WR units.
Gunner Romney, BYU vs. UCF (DK: $4.8K | FD: $10.0K | O/U: 76.0 | Implied: 41.0)
Gunner Romney was the top WR option for BYU over the first 3 games after averaging 24.8 FPG. Since then, his production has dipped due to battling various injuries forcing him out of a few games, and unavailable in others. In fact, he didn’t play in the team’s last game versus San Diego State due to a concussion. However, BYU HC Kalani Sitake is expecting Romney back for this contest.
Despite only playing in nine-of-11 games, Romney is still second on the team in targets and yards. Coming in as the deep threat for BYU after averaging 19.9 YPC holds quite a bit of significance facing a UCF secondary permitting 8.1 YPA (28th-highest). At $4.8K, he is a cheap option that should hit value, health permitting.
Tre Nixon, UCF vs. BYU (DK: $5.1K | FD: $8.0K | O/U: 76.0 | Implied: 35.0)
Tre Nixon was off to a promising start to 2020 with four receptions for 94 yards and two TDs in the first half versus Georgia Tech. Unfortunately, a broken clavicle forced him out of the following five games. Since his return from injury, he is tied for the team lead in targets and receptions, and is still only the third most expensive UCF receiver on the slate at $5.1K. In a projected shootout, we are going to want to target at least one UCF WR. Nixon is my choice.
Jaylon Robinson, UCF vs. BYU (DK: $6.3K | FD: $12.0K | O/U: 76.0 | Implied: 35.0)
With Marlon Williams opting out, Jaylon Robinson is the de facto WR1 for UCF leading the team in targets, receptions, and yards. In fact, he is doubling the averages in those categories for every other WR on the active roster. He is averaging 18.4 YPC as the fastest player for the Knights.
Robinson has hit double-digit FPs in every game this season while averaging 21.4 FPG. Despite only scoring five TDs on the season, he still offers up as a solid Cash/SE target. His only downside is the fact that he is the third-most expensive WR, while only scoring 20-plus FPs twice this season.
Romeo Doubs, Nevada vs. Tulane (DK: $7.1K | FD: N/A O/U: 56.0) | Implied: 26.5)
Romeo Doubs was off to a blazing start over the first four games of the year while averaging 38.3 FPG. He has since cooled off a bit, averaging 15.6 FPs with only a single TD over that following that torrid beginning. Digging deeper into the last four games, we can make a few notable observations. Hawaii was simply a forgettable game with a stat line of 1/10/0 on one target. In his three other games, Doubs averaged 12 targets, 7 receptions and 102 yards with one TD for 22 FPG. Facing a Tulane D that is ranked 125th versus opposing WRs in FPG, you can see strong potential for a massive bounce-back game.
Alternatives:
Cole Turner, Nevada vs. Tulane (DK: $6.0K | FD: N/A O/U: 56.0) | Implied: 26.5)
Jacob Harris, UCF vs. BYU (DK: $5.5K | FD: $7.5K | O/U: 76.0 | Implied: 35.0)
$4.5K-or-less options:
Tory Holton, Nevada vs. Tulane (DK: $4.1K | FD: N/A O/U: 56.0) | Implied: 26.5)
Isaac Rex, BYU vs. UCF (DK: $4.3K | FD: $8.5K | O/U: 76.0 | Implied: 41.0)
Deuce Watts, Tulane vs. Nevada (DK: $4.5K | FD: N/A | O/U: 56.0) | Implied: 29.5)
Ryan O’Keefe, UCF vs. BYU (DK: $3.3K | FD: $7.0K | O/U: 76.0 | Implied: 35.0)
Josh Chevalier started playing CFB DFS when it was introduced on DK in 2015. Since its return to DK in 2018, he has provided in-depth weekly articles & analysis specializing in Cash/SE contests. Follow Josh on Twitter:@CFFguys
