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Thursday Night Football
While this week’s Thursday night matchup between the Denver Broncos and the beat up Cleveland Browns looks like a bit of a snoozer, Monkey Knife Fight has some lines we can capitalize on to have some fun and make some profit.
More or Less
The first game of More or Less that we’ll enter is a rushing/receiving combo. The players in question are Courtland Sutton, with a line of 69.5 Receiving Yards, and D’Ernest Johnson, the next man up for Cleveland with a line of 60.5 Rushing Yards.
Johnson fills in for the elite duo of Nick Chubb, and Kareem Hunt after they’ve both been ruled out due to calf injuries. While we were getting top 12 production from both Chubb and Hunt, I don’t expect the same from waiver wire hotness D’Ernest Johnson. Johnson’s role in the offense is yet to be determined with Case Keenum also starting in place of Baker Mayfield, and Demetric Felton remaining relatively unknown as a Receiver turned Running Back. On top of an uncertain role, Johnson faces a Broncos defense who gives up an average of just over 70 rushing yards per game to running backs and has only allowed one runner to eclipse the 60 yard mark on the season. For that reason, I’m takin Less than 60.5 Yards for D’Ernest Johnson
Sutton has a different story. Over the past 3 weeks, Sutton is the WR7 in PPR formats. In that span, he’s 3rd in the league in targets, 9th in yards, and has the most Air Yards of any Wide Receiver, eclipsing 150 Air Yards in each of the 3 contests. Not only does his 25% share of the team’s targets present a plethora of opportunity, it provides lucrative opportunity with all of the downfield work Sutton soaks in. The matchup with the Browns is juicy as well, they’re a bottom 10 defense in yards and touchdowns given up to the Wide Receiver position, and they’ve seen a Receiver beat Sutton’s line of 69.5 yards in all but one game this season. This past week, Cleveland allowed both AJ Green and Christian Kirk to better this mark in their loss to the Cardinals. I’m choosing to Ride the Lightning with Courtland Sutton and I’ll plant my flag ib Courtland Sutton seeing More than 69.5 Receiving Yards.
D’Ernest Johnson - 60.5 Rushing Yards - LESS
Courtland Sutton - 69.5 Receiving Yards - MORE
- Travis Seel
More or Less
Our final entry is another More or Less, this time we’ll be deciphering Fantasy Points Scored as opposed to Yardage amassed. Broncos Tight End Noah Fant has a line of 11.5 Fantasy Points (PPR), identical to the line for his contest counterpart in Odell Beckham Jr. Fant’s matchup against the Browns’ defense doesn’t look great. They only give up 9.1 PPR points per game to the Tight End and the only such player to have more than 30 receiving yards against them is Travis Kelce in week 1. Noah Fant and his almost 23% slot snap rate presents a different challenge though. Often used in Wide Receiver fashion, Fant has the 5th most targets and 7th most Air Yards at his position. Couple that with his team leading 7 targets and 3 touchdowns in the red zone, and Fant has become one of Teddy Two Gloves’ favourite targets. Like Oliver Twist with his porridge, I want more than 11.5 Fantasy Points for Noah Fant.
Odell Beckham’s situation is a bit cloudy. He comes into this game having not practiced all week with an AC Joint sprain, and there’s a slim chance that we could see the return of Jarvis Landry in this matchup as the Browns have until 4 pm EST to activate him from IR. Looking at Beckham’s production since returning from ACL surgery, Odell has hit the 11.5 point mark by a slim margin twice in his 4 contests. Denver is a middle of the pack defense when it comes to Wide Receiver Fantasy production so in a perfect world, this line is totally gettable. The Browns are not operating in a perfect world, however. A backup quarterback, the emergence of young buck Donovan Peoples-Jones, the aforementioned injury and potential return for wingman Jarvis Landry are all working against Beckham in this one. OBJ’s lack of practice this week could even see him sit this one out. Immersed in an extremely imperfect storm, colour me out on Odell Beckham Jr. hitting 11.5 fantasy points in this one.
Noah Fant - 11.5 Fantasy Points - MORE
Odell Beckham Jr. - 11.5 Fantasy Points - MORE
- Travis Seel
College Football Saturday
Going with my fantasy football roots, I will be playing MKF’s Fantasy Challenge and selecting Calvin Ridley, Davante Adams and DJ Moore to combine for 73.5 fantasy points for 2x the payout. Adams has had fantasy weeks scoring 31.2 and 37.6 in games this season with targets in games that looked like 18 - 11 - 16 at times. Calvin Ridley is due for a big week after missing for personal matters then hitting a BYE week, and really is a TD away from a monster week seeing 10-13 targets in his last three straight games. DJ Moore has looked great this season with new QB Sam Darnold scoring 21.9 - 20.5 - 31.9 in weeks two through four. I feel these three receivers have huge ceilings and can combine to hit that 73.5 mark.
Another MKF game I will be playing is the Rapid Fire with a prize for 3x. I am selecting Lamar Jackson over Mahomes for fantasy points with a 2.5 added bonus to Jackson and Davante Adams over Derrick Henry with a 1.5 bonus to Adams for fantasy points. Lamar Jackson vs. CIN screams to be a huge week for the best dual threat in the game, and with the potential for the game script to force Tannehill to throw more vs. the Chiefs I feel more comfortable with Davante Adams having the bigger week over Derrick Henry.
- Nick Skrip
I haven’t been riding so hot lately, so I’m going to simply defer to the Fantasy Points projections, and look at some discrepancies. It’s been working for Paul Kelly lately, who is a staggering 68% with his bets on the season.
Anyways, I’ll be playing More or Less Fantasy Points 5/5, which, if you’re new to MKF, pays out 20X. I’ve hit on a couple 5/5s so far, so crossing my fingers again today. The picks:
Patrick Mahomes OVER 26.5 Fantasy Points
Lamar Jackson UNDER 24.5 Fantasy Points
Derrick Henry OVER 24.5 Fantasy Points
Davante Adams OVER 23.5 Fantasy Points
Aaron Rodgers OVER 21.5 Fantasy Points
- Ben Kukainis