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Week 5 MKF Picks


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Week 5 MKF Picks

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Thursday Night Football

Going to try and ride a mini hot streak, hitting on prizes for the last two weeks. I’ll be playing the Touchdown Dance contest for the first time this season, and let’s go with a 4X prize. I know a Bobby Trees game is coming, but Cooper Kupp is averaging over 1 TD per game, so he could very well fulfill two thirds of the TD total needed. My other two picks are Alex Collins and DK Metcalf. I’m not scared off by Metcalf’s appearance on the injury report. I’ll defer to the good doctor Edwin Porras when it comes to injury news, and his outlook on Chris Carson is that “this could be a number of things but ultimately it's likely this is arthritic in nature. In other words, this is not going away like an ankle sprain will. The flare can resolve, but in terms of Week Five, Carson is a game time decision…” Therefore, I’m rounding out my trio with Alex Collins. So that’s DK Metcalf, Cooper Kupp, and Alex Collins to score more than 2.5 touchdowns total for a 4X prize. - Ben Kukainis

Let’s pitter patter and get at’er with another game of More or Less for this divisional Thursday night showdown. This contest sees the Thursday Night quarterback complement with some gettable lines that I think we can profit from. Matthew Stafford would make Pitbull proud at 305.5 yards. Stafford is facing a defense of the swiss cheese variety in Seattle as the Seahawks have given up over 290 yards per game to opposing passers and in their 4 games to date they’ve conceded 8 passing touchdowns to only 1 interception. When considering that the Seahawks haven’t faced a passing game of the Rams’ caliber and that Stafford has hit this line in 2 of 4 games so far this season, and was less than 30 yards shy in the other 2 matchups…give me more on Matthew Stafford. Russell Wilson has a line of 270.5 yards and his matchup against the Rams defense isn’t as daunting as first thought might indicate. While the Seahawks have given up the 5th most passing yards of any team, the Rams have given up the 8th most at 273 yards per game. Regardless, I think his weapons in DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, while inconsistent from week-to-week, are essentially matchup proof. While the passing volume remains low, WIlson is an efficiency god and with Lockett, Metcalf, and the continued emergence of Freddie Swain, this offense is a big play waiting to happen. I see a bit of a shootout happening and so does vegas with an Over/Under of 54.4. That spell’s mo’ money for Mr. Ciara!

Matt Stafford - 305.5 Yards: MORE

Russell Wilson - 270.5 Yards: MORE

Let’s double down on More or Less, but this time from a Fantasy Points scored perspective as opposed to a yardage compiled lens. After all, with we’re all out to #ScoreMore. This entry highlights a couple of very different, but very productive wideouts. Cooper Kupp’s line asks for 19.5 Fantasy Points, and D.K. Metcalf’s calls for 16.5. Remember, Monkey Knife Fight uses full PPR scoring so secure target volume is a major asset here. When we talk about secure target volume, the darling of 2021 is one Cooper Douglas Kupp. His 34% team target share represents a stranglehold on alpha duties for the Rams. This is further evidence by his 6+ yards after the catch per reception, his team leading 4 touchdowns, and a league leading 9 red zone targets. AFter a down week against the Cardinals in week 4, I like Cooper Kupp to bounce back with MORE than 19.5 PPR points. It can often be a trap consistently selecting the More option in Fantasy Football but I’m going back to the well with DK Metcalf. Tyler Lockett is banged up and we’ve seen DK clear this threshold in each of the past 2 weeks. Through 4 weeks, Metcalf is averaging 8 targets, more than 100 air yards, and more than 25 yards after the catch on a per game basis. While Jalen Ramsey is a tall task for any receiver, the volume we’ve seen, and expect to continue, should allow for the MORE mark to be met.

Cooper Kupp - 19.5 PPR Fantasy Points: MORE

DK Metcalf - 16.5 PPR Fantasy Points: MORE

College Football Saturday

Alright, I’m putting some money in for my alma mater! Michigan State travels to Rutgers, and I think 1) Michigan State has overachieved thus far, and 2) the new Rutgers culture will be on display after an absolute whooping last week at the hands of the Buckeyes. That said, I can’t feel comfortable picking anything related to Rutgers QB Noah Vedral, so I’m playing More or Less Fantasy Points 3X. Rutgers run defense has been quite shotty this season, so I’m choosing Kenneth Walker III MORE than 19.5 Fantasy Points. Additionally, I hope Rutgers gets back to their ground game, and I’m also choosing Isaih Pacheco MORE than 12.5 Fantasy Points. - Ben Kukainis

Sunday Football

Justin Jefferson is red hot with three straight games scoring, and although the Lions seem like an easy matchup on paper there are 14 teams giving up more passing yards than Detroit so far this year (not counting the Thursday game teams). Jefferson has hit above 85 receiving yard mark in just one of his four games this year, so although productive and targeted the yardage has not been massive. I will be playing MKF’s More or Less and selecting Justin Jefferson less than 89.5 receiving yards. Terry McLaurin is nearing a 30% target share, and has had some big weeks such as last week’s 14 targets and a 13 target game earlier this year. High ceiling and high floor player currently. The Saints defense is respected, but they have been giving up plenty through the air this year with 283.3 yards per game, currently 7th highest. With games of 107 and 123 receiving yards, and ESPN projecting him to have 82, I will play Terry McLaurin more than 72.5 receiving yards.

Another MKF More or Less contest I am playing is for the Bengals - Packers matchup. AJ Dillon carried the ball 15 times last game for 81 rushing yards which was due to both the game script and Aaron Jones dealing with an ankle issue. With Aaron Jones holding no injury designation, and AJ Dillon rushing for under 20 yards in his first three games, I am selecting AJ Dillon less than 37.5 rushing yards. On the Bengals side, Tyler Boyd had a huge game last week catching nine balls for 118 receiving yards vs. the Jaguars that featured Joe Burrow passing the ball 32 times when down. Guessing the Bengals may also be down in this one, I can see the volume being solid for Boyd again. Tee Higgins is back, but Boyd’s involvement looked fine with nine targets against Chicago in the 2nd week with all three of him, Higgins and Chase in the mix for that one. The Bengals will also be without a 100% healthy Joe Mixon, which should mean leaning on the pass even more. More passes hopefully means more targets and more yards here for Boyd. I am selecting Tyler Boyd more than 61.5 receiving yards.

  • Nick Skrip

Monday Football

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