Week 4 MKF Picks


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Week 4 MKF Picks

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Thursday Night Football

I will be playing MKF’s Fantasy Challenge where three players are selected (at least one from both teams) and a target fantasy point goal is chosen. The lone Jaguar I will be selecting is James Robinson, who we just saw carry the ball 15 times for 88 yards and a TD last week against the Cardinals. What was reassuring is his six catches on all six targets. The Jaguars should continue to utilize Robinson after that 25.4 fantasy point week. I will also select the opposing RB in Joe Mixon, who despite his current RB15 overall for fantasy standing is 2nd among all RB in opportunities. This Jaguars matchup is another opportunity for high volume/touches. The last player selected will be Tyler Boyd, who should see an increase in targets with teammate Tee Higgins out for this game and rookie Ja’Marr Chase drawing a lot of attention. 15 target from Joe Burrow to Boyd the last two games, the connection last year between the two was evident as Boyd was the WR11 before Joe Burrow’s injury. The fantasy point goal of 56.5 doubles our money and is a safe selection. - Nick Skrip

College Football Saturday

Louisville at Wake Forest | MORE or LESS 15X (Fantasy Points)

QB Malik Cunningham (Lou) MORE than 29.5 Fantasy Points

QB Sam Hartman (WF) MORE than 23.5 Fantasy Points

RB Christian Beal-Smith (WF) LESS than 15.5 Fantasy Points

WR A.T. Perry (WF) LESS than 13.5 Fantasy Points

RB Jalen Mitchell (Lou) LESS than 13.5 Fantasy Points

Ohio State at Rutgers | MORE or LESS 5X

QB CJ Stroud (OSU) LESS than 299.5 Passing Yards

QB Noah Vedral (Rut) MORE than 190.5 Passing Yards

RB TreVeyon Henderson (OSU) MORE than 102.5 Rushing Yards

Sunday Football

I will be playing MKF’s More or Less for the Saints vs. Giants game. Jameis Winston is only averaging 129 passing yards per game with a season high of 148. Winston is also 30th in both passing yards and air yards, as well as 27th in yards per attempt. After beating up Aaron Rodgers in Week 1, the Saints gave up 305 and 270 passing yards to Sam Darnold and Mac Jones. Daniel Jones comes in with 267, 249 and 266 passing yards which he should stay close to despite having a banged up receiving core. I’ll take Jameis Winston less than 195.5 passing yards and Daniel Jones more than 239.5 passing yards.

Another MKF More or Less I will be playing involves the passing yards for Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes’ matchup this week. Jalen Hurts has had bigger passing days in two of his three outings with 265 and 326 passing yards, which I expect the same with a Chiefs front seven with some injuries and his attempt to keep up with their offense. Patrick Mahomes kicked off the season with 337 and 343 passing yards after throwing for over 310 passing yards in 53.33% of his 2020 games. Mahomes struggled last week with his completion percentage and turnovers (two INT’s), but I believe the matchup will be better than expected and he will have a big passing day. I am taking Jalen Hurts more than 240.5 passing yards and Patrick Mahomes more than 310.5 passing yards.

  • Nick Skrip

The first entry I’ll be making is a multi-game More or Less. The players involved are Travis Kelce and Derrick Henry and from the jump I feel like we’re in the money. Kelce’s line in this contest is 95.5 receiving yards and Henry’s is 122.5 Rushing yards. Kelce’s line looks a bit high at first glance, but I think he hits it. He’s eclipsed 100 yards in both of his 2 previous matchups against better defenses than the one he’ll face in Philly. And some simple math would show that he averages 50 yards after the catch, and more than 70 Air Yards on a per game basis. Kelce is the bonafide alpha in the Chiefs’ prolific offense and he’s in line for another big game on Sunday.

Derrick Henry on the other feels like a smash play with his line of 122.5 rushing yards. Henry’s workload is one of the safer bets in the league when looking for consistent volume. He’s averaged 26 carries per game thus far on a team that’s run the ball at the 6th highest clip with 47%. Couple that with the fact that the Titans are missing both Julio Jones and A.J. Brown and that they’re facing the Jets who have given up more than 100 yards rushing per game, Henry could clear this line by halftime.

Derrick Henry - 122.5 Rushing Yards: MORE

Travis Kelce - 95.5 Receiving Yards: MORE

Another entry I’ll be making for the early games is a Rapid Fire Contest. This one pits Patrick Mahomes against Josh Allen, giving Allen a boost of 21.5 passing yards. It also sees Travis Kelce vs. Stefon Diggs with Diggs receiving a buffer of 8.5 receiving yards. For the Diggs/Kelce decision, I’m looking at game flow in this one. The Bills should be comfortably leading in this game and we’ve seen some energy injected into the run game as of late. Considering game script, the bevvy of pass catching weapons at Josh Allen’s disposal, and the fact that Diggs hasn’t put up more than 70 yards in a game yet this season, I’m giving the nod to Travis Kelce. The Mahomes/Allen conundrum is a bit different. With the 21.5 yard bonus given to Josh Allen, I’m rolling with the Bills’ signal caller. Patrick Mahomes faces an Eagles defense who is one of 5 teams that hasn’t given up 600 passing yards on the season through 3 weeks. Furthermore, against Wide Receivers, Philly is still yet to concede 300 yards to the position in 3 games that saw them face Calvin Ridley, Deebo Samuel, and the Dallas duo of Amari Cooper and Ceedee Lamb. While the Bills will be ahead against the Houston Texans, I think they’ll get ahead by throwing the ball early, and Josh Allen will have some tidy numbers to reflect that.Give me Josh Allen to stay within 21.5 passing yards of Patrick Mahomes

Passing Yards - Patrick Mahomes vs. Josh Allen (+21.5 yards):

The pick: Josh Allen

Receiving Yards - Travis Kelce vs. Stefon Diggs (+8.5 yards):

The Pick: Travis Kelce

Bonus: Touchdown Dance

Touchdown Dance is a contest that can be both rewarding and devastating. It’s as simple as picking 3 players to score at least X amount of touchdowns. But it’s not so simple. This week’s early slate has TD thresholds of 2.5 (1.5x multiplier), 3.5 (3x), and 4.5 (5x). It’s easy to get burned by locking in the highest multiplier with your chest puffed out, confident that a TD bonanza is about to ensue. Unfortunately, it’s a rare occurrence for that to come to fruition, and far too often you’ll be left NOT holding the bag…With that said, I like to zero in on the 3x multiplier, which requires my 3 players to score at least 4 combined touchdowns.

The first player I’m locking in is Derrick Henry. The volume against the Jets with virtually no pass catching options in Tennessee makes Henry an easy foundation piece. Cleveland travels to Minnesota to face the Vikings who have given up the 5th most yards per attempt and a rushing touchdown in each of their 3 matchups this season. With the Browns’ receiving core still depleted, give me Nick Chubb to visit paydirt and have a big day. For my final Touchdown scorer I’m going a bit outside the box and taking DJ Moore. He’s become the apple of Sam Darnold’s eye in Carolina. Wiith Christian McCaffrey out, facing a Dallas defense giving up the 5th most PPR points to the WR position and 7 receiving TDs overall through 3 games, I think DJ Mo-Money’s gonna be cash money this week.

Goal: 3.5 Touchdowns

Players: Derrick Henry, Nick Chubb, DJ Moore

  • Travis Seel

Monday Football