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Thursday Night Football
I can feel the excitement building for America’s first chance to see the Texans on national TV. This truly is one of those games in which you need some skin in the game to enjoy. I’m taking Davis Mills under 225.5 passing yards (100 pts) in his first NFL start. He completed 8/18 passes for 102 yards, one touchdown, and one INT in two quarters of relief action against the Browns in Week 2. Mills won’t even get a full week of reps to prepare for his first start and #2 and #3 WRs Nico Collins (shoulder) and Danny Amendola (hamstring) won’t play. The Panthers’ defense has looked like the real deal with just 21 points and 380 yards allowed (both NFL bests) in victories over the Saints and Jets to open the season. On the other side, I’m betting on Christian McCaffery over 74.5 rushing yards (100 pts) with yet another positive gamescript potentially coming his way. He posted 20+ carries in victories over the Saints and Jets to open the season, and Nick Chubb posted 95/1 rushing on 11 carries in this matchup last week. Enjoy your one and only chance to see the Texans and good luck as always! — Tom Brolley
Patrick Mahomes threw for 337 passing yards in his first game this season, then threw for 343 passing yards last week. He spent over half of the 2020 season above 310 passing yards (8/15 games), and will surely continue to do so this year. I will comfortably take Patrick Mahomes over 310.5 passing yards (95 points) against the Chargers this week. Another dart I will be throwing will be Calvin Ridley over .5 receiving TD’s (115 pts). 18 targets the last two games with three of those in the red zone, I like the odds for him to score again this week with that involvement in the Falcons offense. We also just saw Terry McLaurin catch 11/14 targets for a score against the Giants last week.
There will be a lot of eyes on the Bears-Browns game this week with Justin Fields making his first NFL start. Fields took over for Andy Dalton last week and he aggressively threw downfield, with his aDOT sitting at 10.5 yards compared to Dalton’s 4.6 yard average this season. With Fields stepping into the lineup, I’m wagering Darnell Mooney over 38.5 receiving yards. He leads the Bears in routes (75), targets (15), catches (11), and receiving yards (92) through the first two weeks of the season. The Browns struggled with speedy receivers Brandin Cooks (9/78/1 receiving) and Tyreek Hill (11/197/1) in the first two weeks. For my other wager, I’m looking at D’Andre Swift over 40.5 rushing yards against a thinned out Ravens’ defense. Baltimore will be without DT Justin Madubuike, NT Brandon Williams, OLB Justin Houston, and OLB Jaylor Ferguson this week. Swift has yet to hit 40+ rushing yards in the first two weeks but this is now an attackable defense for run-oriented OC Anthony Lynn. Good luck! — Tom Brolley
Monday Night Football
We have an NFC East showdown between the Eagles and Cowboys on Monday Night Football. I’m looking at Dak Prescott under 291.5 passing yards (100 pts) coming off a game that he threw for just 237 yards and no touchdowns against the Chargers. The Eagles have allowed just one passing TD and they’ve yet to give up 190+ passing yards to either Matt Ryan or Jimmy Garoppolo. The Eagles will also invite the Cowboys to run the ball this week so I’d also give a look at Ezekiel Elliott over 85.5 rushing and receiving yards (105 pts) in a correlated prop. Zeke is coming off a 97-yard performance against the Chargers and the Eagles are giving up 4.2 YPC and 8.0 catches per game to RBs so far. Good luck! — Tom Brolley