The Super Bowl annually offers the most robust betting options of any sporting event during the calendar year. You can wager on anything from the opening coin toss to the color of the liquid tossed on the winning coach (at offshore sportsbooks, at least). I’m going to focus on the action on the field for this article to try to pick off a big win or two with smaller wagers.
Here are a few of the long-shot props I’ve personally bet for this year’s big game. To be clear, I’m not putting full unit bets on these props. I’m wagering a fraction of what I typically place on a normal spread or player prop bet. These bets are more for fun but I do think these long-shot bets offer some value. Good luck and, hopefully, one of these long-shot props will hit to make Super Bowl LVI a little more fun.
Note: The odds used in this article are from when I initially placed these wagers in my Super Bowl Best Bets article. Be sure to shop around for the best odds.
Odell Beckham (LAR) Rams player to make first reception (+400, BetMGM) — Added 2/10
Rams’ play-caller Sean McVay knows OBJ is a malcontent, and the best way to keep a moody player engaged is to get him involved early in the game. Odell has the team’s first reception in six of his first 11 games (54.5%) with the Rams, including in Los Angeles’ last two postseason games. OBJ has been a huge part of Los Angeles’ passing attack in the postseason with his overall target share sitting at 28% in three playoff games. Kupp is rightfully the favorite to catch the first pass but the value is with OBJ as his odds imply just a 20% chance of catching Matthew Stafford’s first pass. OBJ is as short as +260 at Caesars to record Los Angeles’ first reception so this prop is looking juicy at +400, and I’ll be sprinkling a smaller bet on OBJ at +750 to have the first overall reception. Risk one unit at +400 to win four units.
Cooper Kupp (LAR) Super Bowl LVI MVP (+700, Caesars)
Kupp has been the best player in the NFL this season, regardless of position, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the voters reward him with the Super Bowl MVP if he maintains his high level of play for one more game. Kupp is certainly deserving of winning the NFL MVP Award this season but non-quarterbacks are almost never considered for the honor — Aaron Rodgers is the heavy favorite to win on Thursday night. By the numbers, Kupp is having the best season ever by a receiver heading into the Super Bowl with a ridiculous 170 catches, 2333 receiving yards, and 20 receiving TDs in 20 games this season. He needs 161 receiving yards to pass Larry Fitzgerald’s record for yards in a single postseason. Kupp has a strong chance to win the Super Bowl MVP with 100+ receiving yards and a touchdown, which he’s done in 11-of-20 games this season. Risk one unit at +700 to win seven units.
Ja’Marr Chase (Cin) Super Bowl LVI MVP (+2200, FanDuel)
It’s going to be difficult for someone other than Joe Burrow to win the Super Bowl MVP for the Bengals, but Chase has shown multiple times as a rookie that he can take over a game. He’s been on a heater at the end of the season with 38 catches, 670 receiving yards, and four TDs in his last five full contests. He owns seven 100-yard games and two 200-yard games already this season with 14 touchdowns overall. We’re in the opening act of Chase’s career, but his early trajectory has him on a pace to be of the all-time great wide receivers based on his college resume, his pre-draft testing, and his performance in his first season. I wouldn’t be shocked at all if he broke through to become the first rookie to win the Super Bowl MVP. Risk .3 units at +2200 to win 6.6 units.
Aaron Donald (LAR) Super Bowl LVI MVP (+2500, Caesars)
Los Angeles’ biggest advantage in this matchup will be its defensive front going against Cincinnati’s offensive line. Burrow absorbed 63 sacks in 19 games (3.3 per contest) this season, and the interior of their offensive line has been particularly troublesome. Donald headlines this defensive front with 14 sacks in 20 games this season, which includes 1.5 sacks in three postseason games. Burrow has already absorbed nine sacks in a game this postseason against the Titans, and elite interior defender Jeffery Simmons accounted for three of those sacks. If Burrow has another high-sack game in the Super Bowl, Donald would have a chance of winning the MVP if he led the charge for the Rams’ defense. It’s also notable that the MVP is voted upon by members of the Professional Football Writers of America and by fans, and Donald has the kind of national profile to potentially beat out Matthew Stafford or Cooper Kupp if there’s no clear leader for the award. Risk .3 units at +2500 to win 7.5 units.
Joe Burrow (Cin) first touchdown/last touchdown (+4000/+4000, BetMGM)
Matthew Stafford (LAR) first touchdown/last touchdown (+6600/+6600, BetMGM)
These four wagers are admittedly extreme long shots to hit but the odds over at BetMGM are out of whack compared to most other shops. Burrow has five rushing TDs in 29 career games while Stafford already has two rushing TDs in his first three postseason games with the Rams. Stafford has run a lot more in the postseason than he did in the regular season with five scrambles for 37 yards in three postseason games compared to nine scrambles for 50 yards in 17 regular-season contests. Risk .2 units at +4000/+4000 to win eight units and risk .2 units at +6600/+6600 to win 13.2 units.
Largest lead of the game — under 14.5 (-106, FanDuel)
Will both teams have the lead in the second half — YES (+158, FanDuel)
Will both teams have the lead in the 4th quarter — YES (+280, FanDuel)
I wagered on the Bengals +4 and I also have a Bengals third quarter moneyline bet at +140 (tie no bet), and these three bets are a bit related to those wagers. Cincinnati has been arguably the best team after halftime all the season, and they once again demonstrated it against the Chiefs in the AFC Championship. The Bengals owned a +60 point differential in the third quarter in the regular season and a +11 point differential in the postseason. The Rams squandered a second-half lead in the Divisional Round against the Buccaneers before winning late, and ​​both teams trailed after 30 minutes in the Conference Championship Round before grabbing leads in the second half. I’ll also likely be loading up on some live bets on the Bengals on Sunday night if they’re trailing the Super Bowl at halftime. Risk one unit at -106 to win .94 units, risk one unit at +158 to win 1.58 units, and risk one unit at +280 to 2.8 units
Will there be overtime? YES (+1200, FanDuel)
I bet the Bengals +4 and I bet on a tight game with lead changes in the second half so I’m going to take a look at the overtime prop. ​​FanDuel’s +1200 odds for overtime are by far the best I’ve seen and I would bet this at +1000 odds or longer. By my count, there have been 23 overtime contests in 284 games in the regular season and postseason, so 8.1% of this season’s games have gone to extra time. FanDuel’s +1200 odds imply a 7.7% chance of overtime in Super Bowl LVI, and this game is relatively tightly lined with a four-point spread and a dropping total. The Rams played in one overtime game in 20 tries (5%) but the Bengals have had a knack for drama with a whopping four OT contests in 20 games (25%), including in their victory over the Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game. Risk .5 units at +1200 to win six units.
