This article is designed to be an early betting preview for Super Bowl LVI. I’ll include my personal power ratings, Super Bowl odds, and a mini-game preview with recent trends. I’ll also include my bets and leans for the week at the end of the article.
My power ratings are a starting point for point-spread betting between two teams. They take into account recent performances, long-term injuries, coaching, and strength of schedule. These ratings are intended to help predict performances in the present, but they’re not necessarily predictive for the rest of the season.
I will take my Power Ratings into account when I make my weekly against the spread picks for the week, but I’ll also consider current injury reports, home-field advantage, weather, and other factors that may be relevant. I hope you find these ratings useful and good luck with your wagers!
| Rank | Team | Power Rating | 2021 Record (ATS) | Ratings Change | Super Bowl LVI Odds |
| 1. | Los Angeles Rams | 7 | 15-5 (10-10) | +.5 | -195 |
| 2. | Cincinnati Bengals | 5 | 13-7 (13-7) | +.5 | +165 |
SUPER BOWL LVI
(4) LOS ANGELES RAMS (-195) VS. (4) CINCINNATI BENGALS (+165)
Spread: Rams -4
Total: 49
Time: 6:30 p.m., Feb. 13
Forecast: Indoors
The NFL went 54 years without a franchise hosting a Super Bowl but that trend has completely flipped the last two seasons with the Rams set to play the Bengals at SoFi Stadium on Feb. 13, a year after the Buccaneers beat the Chiefs at Raymond James Stadium. The Rams and Bengals won their respective conferences as four seeds, which means this will be the first Super Bowl without at least one top-three seed in the finals. The Bengals (7 losses) and Rams (5) have the most combined losses at 12 for two teams entering the Super Bowl, and they tied Super XLV for the highest combined seed total at eight — the Packers (six seed) beat the Steelers (two seed) 31-25 during the 2010 season. Cincinnati opened the season with 150/1 odds to win Super Bowl LVI, which was tied for the third-longest odds with the Jets, ahead of only the Lions (250/1) and Texans (300/1). The Bengals tied the 1999 St. Louis Rams as the deepest long shots to reach the Super Bowl, and those Rams beat the Titans 23-16 in Super Bowl XXXIV. Los Angeles opened the season with the fourth-best odds to hoist the Lombardi Trophy at +1200, behind only the Chiefs (+450), Buccaneers (+700), and Bills (+1100).
The Bengals already own postseason victories when they trailed the Chiefs by 18 points and when Joe Burrow was sacked nine times against the Titans, so they should be unfazed by trying to win a Super Bowl in Los Angeles’ home stadium. The Bengals will represent the AFC after opening the season as 80/1 longshots to win the conference. This will be the third time Cincinnati has represented the AFC in the Super Bowl, and they nearly played San Francisco once again after losing its first two Super Bowls to the 49ers in the 1982 and 1989 seasons. The Bengals reached the big game by tying the 2006 Indianapolis Colts for the largest comeback in AFC Championship Game history — Peyton Manning overcame an identical 21-3 deficit against Tom Brady and the Patriots. Patrick Mahomes threw for touchdowns on each of Kansas City’s first three drives in the AFC Championship Game, but the Bengals held the Chiefs to just three points on their final eight possessions with four punts and two interceptions.
Friend of Fantasy Points’ Matt Brown noted that Burrow will try to become the first quarterback to win the Heisman Trophy, a college football national title, and a Super Bowl. Burrow has thrown for multiple TDs in 13-of-19 games this season after he completed 23/38 passes for 250 yards (6.6 YPA), two TDs, and one INT in their victory over the Chiefs. Rookie Ja’Marr Chase posted 6/54/1 receiving even while seeing some extra attention from the Chiefs, and he’s now reached 5+ catches and 17+ FP in five straight games. Joe Mixon snapped out of a dry spell as a runner with 21/88 rushing against the Chiefs, which was his best performance on the ground since Week 12 — he’s posted 27+ receiving yards in five straight games. C.J. Uzomah will be in a race to play in the Super Bowl after spraining his MCL early against the Chiefs. The Bengals are streaking heading into the Super Bowl with seven straight covers (6-1 outright). They’ve also covered six consecutive games against teams with a winning record and six straight games as road underdogs this season. The Bengals have played under the total in four consecutive games and early line movement has driven the total down to 48.5 points after opening at 50.
Zac Taylor will take on his mentor Sean McVay in Super Bowl LVI, and he landed the Cincinnati gig after the Rams reached Super Bowl LIII. The Rams won their second conference title in four years and in just McVay’s fifth season overall as the Rams’ headman. The previously mentioned 1999 Rams own the franchise’s only Super Bowl victory in four overall appearances — they lost in 1979, 2001, and 2018. McVay’s Rams own just two victories when they’ve trailed by double-digit points in the second half and both wins have come in NFC Championship Games. The Rams erased a 10-point fourth-quarter deficit against the 49ers thanks to their big off-season acquisition’s performance late in the game. Matthew Stafford completed 31/45 passes for 337 yards (7.5 YPA), two TDs, and one INT against the 49ers, which gives him multiple TD passes in nine of his last 10 games. Stafford and the Rams reached the Super Bowl in their first year together after opening the season as the second favorites (+550) to win the conference.
Cooper Kupp has turned into a full-blown superstar playing with Stafford, and he heads into the Super Bowl with a ridiculous 170/2333/20 receiving in 20 games this season. He’s scored touchdowns in five straight games and he’s scored in eight of his last nine contests after posting 11/142/2 receiving on 14 targets against the 49ers. Kupp’s running mate Odell Beckham has stepped up in the postseason with 19/236/1 receiving on 23 targets in three contests. The rest of Los Angeles’ skill players will use the extra week to prepare for the Super Bowl to get healthy. Tyler Higbee avoided a serious knee injury in the NFC Championship Game while Cam Akers (shoulder) and Van Jefferson (knee) were in and out of the lineup with their injuries. Los Angeles’ biggest advantage in this matchup will be its defensive front going against Cincinnati’s offensive line. Burrow absorbed 63 sacks in 19 games (3.3 per contest) this season. Aaron Donald recorded 14 sacks in 20 games this season while Von Miller had his six-game sack streak snapped in the NFC Championship Game. The Rams have been far from world-beaters at home this season with a 5-5 ATS record, and Los Angeles is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games as a favorite. Even with some shaky trends at home and as a favorite, the Rams are 8-1 outright and 6-3 ATS in their last nine games.
BROLLEY’S EARLY BETS
Check out all of my Best Bets for Super Bowl LVI.
CINCINNATI BENGALS (+4) vs. Los Angeles Rams
