Player Props Record: 75-47 (61%) Last Week: 2-2 (50%)
We wrap up the 2021 regular season with a rock solid 61% winning percentage and I can’t help but think that without a couple of unlucky bounces we could have done even better. Let’s see if we can build on our strong season here in the playoffs.
Here’s some background on the process I use to find the props featured in this article. Looking to get an edge over the sportsbooks, a couple of years ago I started comparing each of John Hansen’s player projections to the player props being offered by the books. I looked for the largest discrepancies between John’s numbers and the books’ numbers to identify betting opportunities. I’ve developed a good feel and a baseline for what constitutes a “significant” discrepancy between the projections and the props and I’ve been betting accordingly – shopping the various books for the most favorable odds of course.
Here’s a look at the player prop discrepancies I like most for Super Wild Card Weekend followed by a list of all of the significant discrepancies for the week.
Byron Pringle vs. PIT
| REC YARDS | PROP | DISCREP | ODDS | SITE |
| PRINGLE | OVER 29.5 | 18.5 | -110 | FD |
Pringle has gone over this number in three straight games including a huge performance against Pittsburgh in Week 16. All we need is 30 yards to cash in here and the Fantasy Points projection is 58 yards.
Tyler Boyd vs. LV
| REC YARDS | PROP | DISCREP | ODDS | SITE |
| BOYD | OVER 40.5 | 16.5 | -110 | FD |
Boyd has been on a mini roll of late going over this number in four of his last five. He led the Bengals in targets, catches and yards in this matchup back in Week 11 so we know he can win this prop.
Cooper Kupp vs. ARI
| RECEPTIONS | PROP | DISCREP | ODDS | SITE |
| KUPP | OVER 7.5 | 1.5 | -140 | MGM |
Kupp has gone over 7 catches in four of his last six including a 13-catch game against the Cardinals in Week 14. His two highest target totals of the season (13,15) came against the Cardinals so there’s no reason to shy away from him here.
Deebo Samuel @ DAL
| TOTAL YARDS | PROP | DISCREP | ODDS | SITE |
| D. SAMUEL | OVER 96.5 | 23.5 | -114 | FD |
We have Deebo projected for 120 total yards here on the site. He’s gone over this number in two of his last three and I'll trust Kyle Shanahan to get the ball into his hands a lot in the team's most important game of the season.
Here’s the full list of statistically significant player prop discrepancies for Super Wild Card Weekend. Happy Wagering!
| PLAYER | PROP | LINE | DISCREP | ODDS | SITE |
| GAROPPOLO | PASS ATTS | OVER 31.5 | 4.5 | 102 | FD |
| MAHOMES | PASS ATTS | UNDER 37.5 | 4.5 | -120 | MGM |
| MAHOMES | COMPLETIONS | UNDER 25.5 | 4.5 | -130 | DK |
| MICHEL | RUSH YDS | OVER 56.5 | 19.5 | -110 | DK |
| AKERS | RUSH YDS | UNDER 32.5 | 19.5 | -114 | FD |
| D. SMITH | REC YDS | OVER 43.5 | 19.5 | -110 | FD |
| JEFFERSON | REC YDS | OVER 37.5 | 19.5 | -110 | FD |
| PERRIMAN | REC YDS | OVER 36.5 | 18.5 | -105 | CAESARS |
| A.J. GREEN | REC YDS | OVER 42.5 | 18.5 | -110 | FD |
| PRINGLE | REC YDS | OVER 29.5 | 18.5 | -110 | FD |
| Q. WATKINS | REC YDS | OVER 25.5 | 18.5 | -110 | FD |
| FREIERMUTH | REC YDS | OVER 30.5 | 16.5 | -105 | DK |
| AIYUK | REC YDS | OVER 48.5 | 16.5 | -110 | FD |
| BOYD | REC YDS | OVER 40.5 | 16.5 | -110 | FD |
| B. EDWARDS | REC YDS | OVER 22.5 | 15.5 | 110 | CAESARS |
| FOURNETTE | REC YDS | UNDER 32.5 | 15.5 | -110 | FD |
| CHASE | REC YDS | OVER 70.5 | 15.5 | -110 | FD |
| FOURNETTE | RECEPTIONS | UNDER 5.5 | 2.5 | -130 | MGM |
| KUPP | RECEPTIONS | OVER 7.5 | 1.5 | -140 | MGM |
| HIGGINS | RECEPTIONS | UNDER 5.5 | 1.5 | -149 | CAESARS |
| MICHEL | TOTAL YARDS | OVER 68.5 | 23.5 | -114 | FD |
| D. SAMUEL | TOTAL YARDS | OVER 96.5 | 23.5 | -114 | FD |
